LTCUSD looking for a break-out to $255.Last time we looked at Litecoin (LTCUSD) was 3.5 months ago (October 10 2024, see chart below) when we gave the most timely buy signal, right before it started the strongest rally of its Bull Cycle yet:
Since however the break-out wasn't as aggressive as we initially expected, we have to downgrade our Target. The sequence in terms of 1W RSI is so far similar to the previous Cycles, it's just that the price hasn't responded as aggressively as then.
As you can see, LTC made the expected 1W RSI peak (December 02 2024) and then as the price started to consolidate, it declined, entering a Channel Down. This is no different that the previous RSI Cycle peaks (Dec 28 2020 and May 01 2017).
The difference is that in 2017 the price responded with a huger continuation rally just shy off the 4.0 Fibonacci extension from the consolidation stage, while in 2020 it 'only' managed to reach the 2.5 Fib.
The current pattern appears to have more in common with 2020/21, so we are downgrading our Target to match the current 2.5 Fib at $255.00. It is not impossible to reach $400 by the end of this Cycle (year) but it is best to pursue it only if you can accept elevated risk.
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