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Crude Oil Futures (Jan 2016)

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CLF2016 trade ideas

Crude oil---sell near 63.90, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis: The recent crude oil has been delivered. The new contract is relatively strong at present. Yesterday's daily line closed with a positive line. In the short-term bottom shock, we are still bearish on crude oil today. We continue to sell. The large pattern suppresses around 65.30. The daily moving average suppresses around 65.700, which means that buying needs to break this position to reverse. Today's crude oil is suppressed at 63.90. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 63.90, target 60.00-58.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BraveTigercat
1
Weekly Market Forecast WTI CRUDE OIL: Bearish! Wait For SellsThis forecast is for the week of April 21 - 25th. Oil has made a classic bearish impulse down, then a corrective retracement. The natural expectation is another impulse down. The fact that price pulled back into a W -FVG allows for this bearish expectation. Wait for a bearish break of market structure to confirm a valid sell setup... and trade accordingly. No confirmation, not trade! Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by RT_Money
1
The pivotal technical threshold is $65 for the price of oil The price of US crude oil broke a major technical support in April The price of oil gave a technical red alert at the beginning of April after breaking a major long-term support, all against a complicated fundamental backdrop: the so-called reciprocal tariff trade war, geopolitical tensions and internal divisions within OPEC+. The immediate consequence: a sharp fall in prices, the steepest since the health crisis of 2020. Does this fall reflect economic reality, or is it the result of excessive negative sentiment? WTI has broken the technical threshold of $65, a pivotal level which had been the market peak ahead of the health crisis in early 2020. This multi-year support gave way under the blows of a market frightened by the prospect of a global recession, whereas it had been preserved since last September. But therein lies the nuance: it's not the recession itself that's at work, but the anticipation of a slowdown, fuelled by daily political and commercial volatility. At a fundamental level, the fall in the price of oil represents several factors: - The increased probability of a global economic recession linked to the uncertainty of the prospective international trade framework. - The new all-time record in US oil production and the Trump Administration's intensive drilling policy. - Strong dissension among OPEC+ member countries, which ultimately led to an increase in oil supply of over 400K barrels/day from May onwards, i.e. three times the volume initially forecast - Uncertainty over the evolution of global demand and rising production, it was this new supply/demand ratio that led to the break of the $65 technical support on US crude at the beginning of April. $65 is therefore the fundamental and technical pivot for the price of oil The message is twofold. Technically, the signal is crystal-clear: oil has broken a major support. Fundamentally, the scenario of a recession remains hypothetical, as the economic data have not yet validated it. The market is anticipating, often too fast, often too hard. An analysis of the historical price of US oil shows that the $65 threshold is a kind of frontier between optimistic and pessimistic economic expectations. Clearly, if the market holds below this resistance level, it will be a sign of a trade war that is still a long way off trade agreements. On the other hand, a return to the $65 mark would signal a return to a stable trading environment and a rise in the price of oil towards $80. Finally, from a macro point of view, an oil price below $65 could accelerate the disinflation process, bringing the FED closer to a pivot. April's fall in the price of oil on the commodities market would therefore be a blessing in disguise. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. 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NYMEX:CL1!
by Swissquote
Planning the Trade: Crude Oil Scenarios in a Shifting Macro LandNYMEX:CL1! In volatile times, both opportunities and risks increase. Traders gain the ability to be more selective, adapting to new market regimes by adjusting risk and trade management strategies. Key tools in this process include indicators such as the Average True Range and Close-to-Close volatility sigma bands. April 20, 2020: A historic day, WTI Crude Oil prices traded negative for the first time, and we have yet another volatile April. "If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail." Preparation is essential before taking on the market head-on. Many participants choose to stay on the sidelines when volatility exceeds 1 standard deviation. Others, however, see this as an opportunity—adapting their risk per trade, adjusting targets, and refining trade management. Reducing position size can be an effective way to manage periods of heightened volatility. This Week's Trade Idea: Crude Oil We'll be reviewing Crude Oil price action with updated levels, fresh insights, and framing a trade plan with an example idea for reference. Key Levels: • April Monthly Open: 70.75 • 2025 mCVPOC: 71.13 • Yearly Open: 69.64 • 2024 Mid: 69.52 • 2025 Developing Mid: 66.52 • 2025 mCVAL: 65.08 • March 2025 Low: 64.37 • 2022 CVAL: 61.60 • 2024 Low: 59.91 The recent announcement of reciprocal tariffs, coupled with OPEC+ production plans (though scheduled earlier), and the rising uncertainty around a possible recession, have collectively weighed on demand expectations—resulting in a significant decline in oil prices. Although the 2024 low was reclaimed and prices have remained above this level, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain. Scenario 1: Push Higher Towards 2025 Mid In this scenario, we anticipate prices closing above March lows. Price then pushes higher toward the 2025 developing mid-range, re-entering the 2025 micro composite value area (mCVA). Example Trade Idea: • Timeframe: Hourly • Setup: Wait for a candle close above March lows. Look for a pullback reaction off the 2025 Value Area Low (VAL). • Entry: 64.50 • Stop: 64.00 • Target: 66.50 • Risk: 50 ticks • Reward: 200 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 4R ________________________________________ Scenario 2: Range-Bound Price Action In this scenario, the March low acts as strong resistance, aligning with the 2025 mCVAL. Price reverts lower towards the 2022 CVAL. Example Trade Idea: • Setup: Watch for signs of buyer exhaustion near March lows. If sellers regain control, look for a move back down toward 2022 CVAL. • Timeframe: Hourly • Entry: 64.00 • Stop: 64.40 • Target: 62.00 • Risk: 40 ticks • Reward: 200 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 5R ________________________________________ Important Notes: These are example trade ideas provided for educational purposes and are not intended as trade recommendations. Traders should perform their own analysis and thorough preparation before entering any positions. Please be aware that stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at the specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels. ________________________________________ Glossary: • VA: Value Area • VPOC: Volume Point of Control • VAL: Value Area Low • C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.) • mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.)
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Crude oil------sell near 63.00, target 60.00-57.00Crude oil market analysis: The recent daily crude oil line is still not very strong. There was a rebound, but it was just a rebound. Gold rose strongly, but crude oil did not rise strongly. Yesterday's crude oil also ran down slightly. Today's crude oil is still around 63.00 and 65.00, which are opportunities to consider selling. If it continues to decline and stabilizes around 57.00, buy it back. Crude oil does not reflect the fundamentals so strongly. Fundamental analysis: The CPI announced yesterday did not have a big impact on the market, but the data difference was still relatively large, and the result was -0.1%. The bulls only rose slightly. The bottoming out and rebound of the US stock market was mainly due to Trump's withdrawal of some tariff policies. Operational suggestions Crude oil------sell near 63.00, target 60.00-57.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BraveTigercat
Crude oil-----Buy near 65.00, target 62.30-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Recently, crude oil has also fluctuated greatly due to the influence of fundamentals. It started to rise rapidly yesterday, and the daily line closed with a standard big hammer candle pattern. Today, we rely on the 65.20 position to buy. We can also consider buying when it falls back to a small support. Today's crude oil trend is bearish, and short-term buying and selling are both possible. The current fundamentals have basically not changed the selling of crude oil. In addition, there will be EIA crude oil inventory data tonight. Today's crude oil is expected to fluctuate greatly. Consider selling it when it rebounds to 65.00 in the Asian session. Fundamental analysis: Tariffs are the biggest fundamentals in the near future, and the market impact is relatively large. Today we focus on CPI data and crude oil inventory data. Operation suggestions: Crude oil-----Buy near 65.00, target 62.30-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BraveTigercat
1
Crude oil-----sell near 61.00, target 69.00-67.00Crude oil market analysis: Tariffs have been increased again, and crude oil continues to fall sharply. It is difficult to change the short-term selling of crude oil. In addition, data and fundamentals all suppress it. Today's crude oil can continue to find selling opportunities. The crude oil pattern shows that the possibility of a big rebound is small. We pay attention to the suppression position of its moving average, which has dropped to around 61.80. This position is also the high point of yesterday's rebound. Today's idea will rely on this position to sell it. The first suppression of crude oil is around 59.30, and the strong pressure is 61.80. Fundamental analysis: The tariff war continues to affect the market, and buying and selling have begun a big game. We will pay attention to CPI later, and there will be crude oil inventory data today. Operation suggestions: Crude oil-----sell near 61.00, target 69.00-67.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BraveTigercat