SEKUSD trade ideas
USDSEK HIts new YTD HighsSEK weakness continues to reign , previously we saw a potential double bottom (DB) form with the February low (pattern later confirmed with a break of the neckline in April) and had further reason to be convinced of the reversal with an A-B-C reversal pattern forming off the same Feb low.
After reaching a YTD high of 8.9159 we saw a ner retest of the DB neckline but have now advanced to a YTD high of 8.96 and threatening a test of pysch level 9.00 as well as the pivot support from April 2017 at 9.10. IF we see price advance above these milestones then the next target is the 2016 high at 9.44.
Traders should look to get tactically long either on breakouts or pullbacks to prior pivots. Be wary of entering on overstretched bars, we may see a short term advance followed by a pullback to 9.00, an entry could then be taken from the next close at a new high
Good luck
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Bullish in short termUSD/SEK has been guided by two opposing channels. The most senior pattern was formed in December 2016, while the junior one has bounded the rate within the bounds of this aforementioned senior channel. The most recent up-wave started late in January when the Greenback reversed from the 7.80 mark.
The pair tested the upper boundary of the senior channel near 8.9025 during the first week of May. It has since edged lower but nevertheless remained near this long-term pattern.
Technical indicators flash bullish signals in the short term. It means that the rate is likely to re-test the senior channel at 8.9025 this week. This level is likewise strengthened by the weekly R2 and the monthly R1. The outlook in the medium term, however, remains bearish, showing that the senior channel is likely to be respected.
USDSEK going to 11.4-12.3 ?!?!?! Hey folks!
And... No, this is not a joke.
Here´s my USDSEK chart which I did for fun, I hope you can learn or gain something from it.
This Monthly chart is giving me THREE reasons to believe theres a good probability USDSEK will reach stated TARGET, as long as we stay above current Black Support Line.
The Three Reasons:
1: Orange --- Overhead Resistance has been broken and support on it has been established. When this happened in the past, USDSEK made it´s way back to the top of the channel.
2: Purple --- Where is the 5th Wave?
Waves is only showing me 4 waves done, now, as for myself I´m used to something finishing with either 3 or 5 Waves and therfore The Bearish Three Drive looks promising.
3: Blue/Red --- Simple Support/Resistance Analyzes showing us how the price reacted at important locations and what it led to.
Feel free to express your thoughts..
I warmly welcome your comments and criticism, I hope I can learn something from you too!
The Bulls Back in Control on The USDSEK?Last post: April 26th. See chart .
Review: A retest as support was expected following a break through key pivot resistance.
Update: The retest was sometime in coming. A break and close above May resistance is now needed to suggest a trend continuation.
Conclusion: Standing aside for now until the breakout and trend continuation has been confirmed.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Pair tests mid-2017 highStrong upside potential has been guiding USD/SEK since mid-April. The pair had breached a long-term channel down earlier in the month prior to gaining the necessary momentum to reach the 8.87 mark—the rate’s highest position since July, 2017. Along the way, the pair breached a three-month ascending channel near 8.75 that should point to further appreciation.
However, it is expected that bulls soon exhaust their upward momentum and allow bears to form a correction south. The prevailing channel suggest that the US Dollar could still edge slightly higher in this session towards the 8.90/95 area.
Subsequently, the pair should aim for the lower boundary of this pattern circa 8.75 in the short term and further down to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 8.62 within the following two weeks.
The USDSEK Breaks Resistance The USDSEK is new to our trading blog and one that is starting to look like a potential long setup. We have recently featured both the EURSEK and the GBPSEK for trend trading trading opportunities so it is no surprise that the USDSEK is of interest too.
We last traded the USDSEK back in 2014/2015 when we had the last significant period of trend on several USD currencies. These currencies also included the AUDUSD, EURUSD and the GBPUSD.
The USDSEK was one of the top performing currencies in that period producing a most linear trend from circa 6.5000 as support to just short of 9.0000 as resistance, a move of 2500 pips that was covered in a year offering multiple compounding opportunities along its ascent.
This was a period of trend where we extracted over 55 000 pips in 9 months on only a handful of positions across all the above mentioned currencies. Since then, the FX market has been notoriously difficult to trade with sustained trends being non-existent.
The money since 2016 has been in the bull run in stocks and so those who have focused heavily on FX in this time will have found it difficult to make sustained profits. Trading side-ways markets has no edge.
Looking at the setup on the USDSEK, we can see that price has now moved its way through the 200SMA and the 50SMA since February when the bulls took control of the market at the major support zone of 8.0000.
Price is now crucially also trading above the key pivot resistance of 2017 which is now acting as support. What we now want to see is a pullback to retest this level and then the next breakout to suggest a trend continuation towards 9.0000.
We will then look for the appropriate setup to start allocating risk to long trades.
Patience needed for now.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
USD/SEK: trading short-entryGrowing divergence after hitting the weekly barrier at 8.5290 suggests sellers are returning again. Expect a breach of the trend line and a correction back to 8.3000, 8.1570 and roughly 8-even over the next days and weeks.
Although the longer term is more or less neutral, broader USD weakness does support an aggressive short-entry strategy.
Near term trend: neutral
Long term trend: neutral/slightly negative
Outlook: correction, moderately negative
Strategy: avoid or aggressive short-entry
Support: 8.3000 / 8.1570 / 8.0050 / 7.8600-
Resistance: 8.4775 / 8.5290 / 8.66+
Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 8.4775
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Pair diminishes trading rangeThe US Dollar has been trading in an ascending channel against the Swedish Krona since the beginning of 2018. The pair has appreciated 7.44% since its 2018 low of 7.8233, thus breaching the senior channel on March 28.
The Greenback continues to diminish its trading range and move in line with the wedge. The most recent test of its upper boundary occurred late on Friday when the rate reversed from the 8.48 mark.
It is likely that the given pattern is respected during the following trading days, thus setting the bottom wedge line circa 8.36 as a near-term target. A breakout to the downside might occur at this level. Nevertheless, this decline below 8.39 could be briefly hindered by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs.