You Are NOT Your P<here was once a tree that stood alone at the edge of a cliff, overlooking the vast sea.
Some days, the sun shone bright, the winds gentle, the water below calm and peaceful. Other days brought heavy storms, fierce winds, crashing waves, rain so relentless it seemed the skies might never clear again. The seasons came and went. The skies changed again and again. But the tree never thought of itself differently because of the weather.
It did not feel more valuable on a sunny day. It did not feel broken or weak when storms battered its branches. The tree simply stayed rooted. It understood something quietly powerful - “ the weather was never personal. It wasn’t about the tree.”
The tree remained, growing slowly over years, not because the conditions were always perfect, but because it had learned to stand through all of it.
This is something most traders forget.
We step into the market with good intentions, hungry to learn, eager to succeed. But somewhere along the way, we make a mistake. We let our self-worth become tied to the numbers on the screen.
A green day makes us feel smart, in control, like we’ve cracked the code. A red day, on the other hand, shakes us to the core, makes us question our place, our skill, even our worth, like we never belonged here at all.
The danger isn’t just in the financial losses. It’s in how we let the market shape how we see ourselves.
But here’s the truth the market won’t tell you upfront: the market doesn’t know who you are, and it doesn’t care . It doesn’t remember what you did yesterday, how many hours you’ve spent learning, or how desperately you want this to work.
The market moves how it moves. Sometimes it moves with you, sometimes it moves against you. It’s neither a punishment, nor a reward. It’s just movement.
Your wins don’t make you superior. Your losses don’t make you dumb. Both are part of the same cycle, and part of the environment you’ve chosen to work in. If you build your self-image on the outcome of your last trade, you’ll forever live on a fragile edge. Every swing will shake you. Every drawdown will feel like a verdict on who you are.
But trading isn’t about who you are today. It’s about who you become over time.
Your job isn’t to seek approval from a system built on randomness and probability. Your job is to build yourself on steadier ground. To stay rooted, like a tree. To let your process define you, not your P&L.
The storms will come. They always do. Volatility, uncertainty, periods where nothing seems to work - these are all part of the environment. The traders who survive are NOT the ones who try to outmuscle the market. They are the ones who protect their capital, their energy, and their mindset through it all.
They understand that being steady is more important than being brilliant - that surviving is more valuable than being right.
Detach your self-worth from the swings. Build your identity on discipline, patience, humility - the quiet habits you control. These are your roots. And when the storm rolls in, they’re what keep you grounded.
When you stop tying your self-image to your short-term results, you begin to see the market more clearly. You stop forcing trades to make yourself feel better. You stop chasing moves to prove something. You start letting your process do its work, even when it feels slow.
You start to realise that progress in trading is quiet and unfolds slowly, almost invisibly, much like a tree growing through the seasons. Small shifts accumulate over time, often going unnoticed, until one day you look back and truly see how far you’ve come.
When you understand this, red days lose their sting. Green days lose their arrogance. Both just become part of the weather. You adapt, endure, and move forward.
You don’t measure yourself by how much you made this week, this month, or even this year. You measure yourself by how well you followed your process , how calmly you handled the volatility, and how patient you remained when there was nothing to do.
The market doesn’t ask for perfection - only consistency. And consistency comes from within, not from chasing highs or avoiding lows, but from standing firm through both.
Like the tree on the cliff, your strength is not in avoiding the weather. Your strength is in understanding that the weather will pass. It always does. Your roots - your process, your discipline, your patience, are what keep you standing until it does.
⦿ Learn to protect your energy.
⦿ Learn to lose without self-doubt.
⦿ Learn to win without ego.
⦿ Learn to wait without fear.
⦿ Learn to wait patiently
Your worth is not in your wins or losses. It’s in how you carry yourself through both.
Stay rooted.
The seasons will change.
And when they do, you’ll still be here, stronger than you were before.
SP500 trade ideas
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6596 .Dear colleagues, I haven't made a forecast for the SNP500 in a long time and was waiting for a correction, but it seems that a major correction is not yet close, and at the moment the price continues to be in an upward five-wave movement.
Therefore, I believe that we should expect to reach the 6596 area, which will mark the end of the medium-term wave “3.”
The corrections are not very deep at the moment, but the price may reach the 6317 area before continuing its upward movement.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Markets on Fire: Stock Indexes Pop, but Will Big Tech Deliver?S&P 500 and Nasdaq set records. Now it's up to big tech to justify that.
Talk about forward-looking valuation. Tech companies’ valuations are largely based on future potential rather than current performance. And that’s what we’re seeing right now getting priced in across the big indexes.
You’d think we’d be bored of record highs by now. But no — Wall Street keeps hitting refresh on its all-time-high counter. 🎵 Over and over again. 🎵
On Friday, the S&P 500 SP:SPX notched its 14th record close this year, ending at 6,388.64. The Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC followed with its 15th at 21,108.32. Even the Dow TVC:DJI — the older sibling who prefers yield over hype — climbed nearly 0.5% to 44,901.92, within a latte’s foam of its December record .
And while indexes are breaking personal bests, investors are buying ahead of some big data deliveries. Why? Because the week ahead is the Super Bowl of Earnings, and the bigger chunk of the Magnificent Seven is up next.
😎 What in the Magnificent Seven?
A highly exclusive club with just seven members, the Mag 7 has entered the earnings spotlight — and the audience isn’t going mild. Traders are pricing perfection, and the script better deliver.
Meta NASDAQ:META kicks things off Wednesday after the close with expected revenue of $44.8 billion and EPS of $5.87. Can Zuckerberg’s AI narrative get investors to forget about the metaverse?
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT shows up at the same time, hoping to dazzle with $73.8 billion in revenue and $3.38 EPS. Copilot AI better be doing overtime.
Then on Thursday, again after lights out, Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN joins the chat with its AWS and ecommerce empire expected to pick up $162.1 billion in revenue. Right behind is Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , fighting to stop its slide into meh-land with projected revenue of $89.2 billion and $1.43 EPS. (Fast fact: AAPL is down 12% year to date — among the worst performers in the crew.)
So far, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL already crushed its quarter , posting $96.4 billion in revenue and $2.31 EPS, plus a spicy raise in capex to $85 billion.
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA ? Not so great. The EV maker reported a 12% revenue drop and a 16% net income decline, spooking investors with a warning of “rough quarters ahead.” The stock is lower by 17% year to date.
Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , the AI trailblazer, reports in late August. Until then, it’s chilling on a $4 trillion throne, as per our Top companies rankings, watching its friends sweat it out.
💸 Can the Mag 7 Keep Carrying?
Here’s a harsh dose of reality: the entire S&P 500 is riding on the backs of these seven stocks. Analysts expect them to post 14% earnings growth, while the other 493 companies limp along at 3.4%. Talk about top-heavy things.
So what happens if even one tech titan misses the mark big time and spooks with scary guidance? A market correction? A buy-the-dip opportunity?
And let’s not forget: valuations are stretched. The S&P 500 is now trading at nearly 23x forward earnings (that’s projected profits per share). And the Nasdaq? Don’t even ask. (We’ll tell you anyway — it’s close to 30x). In all that, now’s a great time to keep a close eye on the Earnings Calendar .
📊 Not All Is Big Tech: Fed and Jobs Loom
As if this week wasn’t already packed enough, macro is back on the menu. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and Chair Jay Powell is expected to hold rates steady at 4.5%.
But don’t rule out drama. A single hawkish word and this party could quickly get some rain on. Powell, the man who moves trillions with a simple “Good afternoon,” has a track record of putting markets in their place when they get too euphoric.
And then there’s Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Consensus calls for just 108,000 jobs added in July — soft, but not disastrous, and fewer than June’s 147,000 . Blame summer hiring slumps, tariff uncertainty, or the market finally digesting its own hype.
Off to you : Can the Magnificent Seven keep this market magnificent? Or are we about to learn what happens when you ride too close to the sun on AI-generated wings?
Do you want to keep buying SP500?Hello all. I usually love to work analyzing volumes, times and key level, i am not used to check the standard indicators, but this time i'll made an exception. Lot of indicators (AO, MACD, RSI, OBV) are showing weakness on higher timeframe with a strong bearish divergence (like the one i am sharing now on AO). On smaller timeframe i usually ignore this signals, because they can result in a little retrace, but on higher timeframe like this one can be a strong reversal indicator. But this is not the only things that let me open this position. Going deeper into my analysis, i have a first key level at $6270. Once we will break below this level, i'll open my first sell order with a stoploss a little higher than ATH. If price will break below my second key level at $6120 i'll open my second short order. My main and final target is $5300 (around -16% from now) but i will consider to secure profits before this level. I'll update you guys, and let me know if you are agree with me or not. Cheers
SPX500 Near ATH | Earnings Week Could Fuel Next MoveSPX500 | Weekly Outlook
The S&P 500 continues its bullish run, trading at record highs as investors await a critical week of tech earnings. Reports from Alphabet and Tesla could be key in justifying the lofty valuations driven by the AI boom.
Technical Outlook:
The price is expected to consolidate between 6341 and 6283 before any decisive move. A short-term bearish correction may occur initially, but if the price holds above the support zone, a push toward a new ATH at 6341 is likely. A breakout above this level could extend gains toward 6375 and 6393.
However, a break below 6283 would indicate weakness, potentially driving the price toward the demand zone near 6250 and 6224.
Support: 6283 · 6250 · 6224
Resistance: 6341 · 6375 · 6393
History does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhymeIt’s widely accepted that Mark Twain once said (or wrote) that “history does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhyme”.
Historical Parallels to a Super Cycle Wave (I) Top in U.S. Equities
The road to a major market top is often paved with echoing patterns from the past, and today's landscape bears an uncanny resemblance to pivotal historical events that preceded economic upheaval.
The 1918 Spanish Flu—though less economically damaging in the U.S. than elsewhere, still triggered a 1.5% drop in GDP and a 2.1% decline in consumer spending. The resulting economic weakness, paired with rising inflation, eroded real returns on equities and short-term government bonds for years.
Then came the 1929 stock market crash, the spark that ignited the Great Depression. Driven by a perfect storm of extreme speculation, sky-high valuations, and a regulatory vacuum, the collapse revealed the systemic fragility beneath the euphoria.
Adding fuel to the fire, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 slammed the brakes on global trade. By sharply raising tariffs on imports, it invited swift retaliatory measures from abroad. The result: a devastating plunge in both U.S. exports and imports, deepening the economic crisis and worsening unemployment. Smoot-Hawley has since become a textbook example of how protectionist policy can magnify economic damage.
Modern Echoes: A Cycle Repeating?
Fast forward to the present and we see unsettling similarities.
The Covid-19 pandemic serves as a modern analog to the 1918 flu, disrupting global supply chains and triggering a steep drop in GDP and consumer spending. Unlike the post-WWI period, however, inflation didn’t precede the crisis, it exploded afterward, fueled by pent-up demand and fiscal stimulus, giving rise to persistent “sticky” inflation....and NOT TRANSITORY.
In a similar inversion of sequence, the Trump-era tariffs—modern-day echoes of Smoot-Hawley, were enacted before any major equity downturn, not after. Still, their long-term impact on global trade and supply chain reliability remains a pressure point for the economy.
Most critically, speculation and valuation excess are again center stage. Just as the roaring ’20s were characterized by euphoric risk-taking, today’s U.S. equity market is trading at record-high P/E ratios, despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty and deteriorating breadth.
These historical and contemporary markers suggest we may be approaching the apex of a Super Cycle Wave (III), a turning point that, like its predecessors, may only be fully recognized in hindsight.
It is my contention, that history is currently rhyming.
Best to all,
Chris
US500 - Can S&P Pass Critical Ratio / Liquidity ZoneS&P (Pepperstone CFD)
Price has popped above the 1.618 extension, which is a key ratio zone.
A bearish whipsaw in this area could be dangerous.
However, if price continues to push through this level, it signals that S&P is entering a very bullish phase.
The area above prior ATH resistance holds high liquidity.
If price moves beyond this ratio band, it will signal that a reversal in this zone is unlikely.
That said, if it’s still in this band when Trump tariffs are reinstated potentially on 1 August, then this is looking dangerous 🧐.
(Fib trendlines lower in the chart).
This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
SPX Elliot Wave Count, Wykoff DistributionBased off the HTF elliot wave count aligning and in confluence with a HTF Wykoff distribution. With the top coming in between 6600-7000ish around September 2025 till January 2026. Further confluence with trendline, fibonnacci time and fibonnaci trend and extension.
S&P 500 Counter-Trend Setup After Bullish Week US500Currently watching the S&P 500 (US500) closely 👀. The index has been in a strong bullish trend 📈, but I’m now evaluating a potential counter-trend opportunity.
Given the strength we’ve seen this week — possibly a “foolish rally” — there’s a chance we’ve either printed or are close to printing the high of the week 🧱. That opens the door for a retracement setup, particularly as we head into Monday’s open 🗓️.
🧠 Trade idea: If we get a bearish market structure break, I’ll be looking to enter short — targeting a 1R take profit initially, and holding a portion for a 2R–3R extension 🎯.
Friday sessions, especially after strong trends, often present clean intraday pullbacks — and when Monday’s low is set early, it can trap late buyers and fuel the move 📉.
⚠️ This is not financial advice — just sharing my thought process and trade plan.
American Exceptionalism - The End of an Era "The Eagle and the Fall"
O say can you see, from the towers so high,
A gleam in the steel and a spark in the sky?
The factories roared and the railways sang,
And liberty’s bell through the cities rang.
We rose from the soil, rough-handed and proud,
With faith forged in steel and heads unbowed.
The eagle soared on ambition's flame,
Each man in his dream, each street with a name.
From sea unto sea, we built and we bought,
In ticker tape winds, prosperity caught.
The market climbed like a hymn on the air—
A temple of glass, reflecting a prayer.
But greed wore a mask and danced in disguise,
A siren’s whisper in financier’s eyes.
And credit, like wine, flowed too freely at last,
While whispers of worry were buried in glass.
October arrived like a thief in the mist,
And struck with a silence too brutal to miss.
A breath, then a cry, then a plunge in the floor—
The numbers all bleeding, the dream no more.
Yet still in the ruins, beneath ash and flame,
Burned a stubborn belief in America’s name.
For even when mountains of fortune did crash,
The stars and the stripes held fast through the ash.
O nation of daring, of promise and pain,
You rise not once, but again and again.
Through boom and through bust, your story is spun—
A land still unfinished, still chasing the sun.
S&P500 This is why every CORRECTION is a GIFT.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been steadily rising since the April bottom to new All Time Highs (ATH). On the grand 100 year scale, the February - March tariff fueled correction, has been nothing significant. The last true technical correction has been the 2022 Inflation Crisis because it touched, and instantly rebounded on, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line).
This is not the first time we bring forward our multi-decade perspective on stock and in particular this chart. But it serves well, keeping us into the meaningful long-term outlook of the market. This suggests that since the Great Depression and the first signs of recovery after the 1935 - 1941 Bear Cycle, the market has entered a multi-decade Channel Up, which is divided into long-term aggressive expansion periods (Bull Cycles) and shorter term depressions (Bear Cycles).
During a Bull Cycle, every test of the 1M MA50 is a instant cyclical buy opportunity and in fact that isn't presented very often. During a Bear Cycle, the market makes an initial aggressive correction below the 1M MA50, turns increasingly volatile for 5-7 years, trading sideways within the Channel Up with its second peak resulting into a 2nd correction that eventually breaks below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
That is what we call a 'generational buy opportunity' as in the past 80 years, it has only been taken place 2 times.
Right now (again this is not something we mention for the first time), the market is at the start of the A.I. Bubble, with incredibly strong similarities with the Internet Bubble of the 1990s.
In fact, relative to the Internet Bubble, it appears that we are on a stage similar to 1993 - 1994, before the market turned parabolic to the eventual Dotcom Bust of 2000.
As a result, from a technical perspective, every 'small' correction such as the one we had this year, is a blessing in disguise (buy opportunity). As the index grew by 5 times during the Internet Bubble (300 to 1500), it is also very possible to see it approach this feat going from roughly 3500 (late 2022) to 14000 (by late 2032) and touch the top of the multi-decade Channel Up.
Are you willing to miss out on this generational wealth creation opportunity?
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S&P500 Critical short-term crossroads.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since for the entirety of July and right now is ahead of important crossroads. It either breaks out above the pattern or pulls back to price a new Higher Low.
Based on the 4H CCI and the similarities with the June 24 - 25 consolidation, there are higher probabilities to break upwards. That fractal reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension after it broke out. We will wait for confirmation and if it's delivered, we will buy the break-out and target 6460 (just below Fib 2.0 ext).
Until then, being so close to the Channel Up top, makes a solid short opportunity targeting a Higher Low (bottom). The previous one was priced exactly on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) so that's our target or 6250 if it comes earlier.
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People don't like the truth! Let's be honest, people don't like honesty. They prefer ideas that affirm their own beliefs.
When I read articles and posts from newer traders, it's often from a place of "all in" diamond hands and the notion that things go up forever.
I've been a trader for over 25 years now, and the game isn't about making a quick buck, it's about making money over and over again. This got me thinking, the issue is when you deal with a small account you require leverage, small timeframes and of course the "shit" or bust mindset. If you lose a thousand dollars, $10,000 even $100,000 - what does it matter? That's no different than a game of poker in Vegas.
The idea of being 80% in drawdown, is alien to me. The idea of one trade and one win is also a crazy notion.
Instead of playing with the future, there is an easier way to work. This isn't about slow and boring, it's about psychology and discipline. 10% returns on a million-dollar account isn't all that difficult. Instead of aiming for 300x returns on an alt coin (due to the account size being tiny) You can make less of a percentage gain with a larger account size.
In terms of psychology - the word " HOPE " is used, way too often, it's used when you hope a stock or the price of Bitcoin goes up, it's used when you hope the position comes back in your favour, it's used when you want your 10,000 bucks to double.
This isn't trading, it's gambling.
The truth is, it's not the winners that make you a good trader. It's the way you deal with the losses.
Once you learn proper risk management, a downtrend in a market move is a 1-2% loss coupled with a new opportunity to reverse the bias.
As a disciplined trader, the game is played differently.
Let's assume you don't have $100k spare - prop firms are a great option, OPM = other people's money.
Remove the risk and increase the leverage, all whilst trading with discipline.
The market goes through many phases, cycles and crashes.
You don't always need something as catastrophic to take place, but if you are all in on a position. You need to understand that losses can be severe and long-lasting.
When everyone sees an oasis in the desert, it's often a mirage.
You only have to look at the Japanese lesson in 1989, when the Nikkei was unstoppable-until it wasn't. For that short space in time, everyone was a day trader, housewives to taxi drivers.
Everyone's a genius in a Bull market.
Then comes the crash. The recovery time on that crash?
34-years!!!
I have covered several aspects of psychology here on TradingView;
When it comes to trading, if you are able to keep playing. It's a worthwhile game. If you are gambling, it's a game whereby the house often wins.
Right now, stocks are worth more than their earnings. Gold is up near all-time highs, crypto, indices the same.
All I am saying is if you are all in. Be careful!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
S&P 500 and the Elliott Wave TheoryThis is a continuation of a Weekly chart that I had previously posted. Our Wave 2(Red) was a Zigzag and the expectation is a Flat for Wave 4(Red) which we see occurred. Since Wave 4(Red) completed, a Wave 5(Red) was triggered. We can expect our Wave 5 to express itself in 5 Waves just like any other Wave. We can observe that our Wave 2(Green) was a Flat and we can expect our Wave 4(Green) to be a Zigzag. Wave 3(Green) was a strong upward move and a confirmation at its current price would trigger a Zigzag correction. This would be our Wave 4(Green) and would set the stage for the last wave before a major correction.
Before the perma-bulls go bonkers… Before the perma-bulls go bonkers… no, I’m not calling for a crash or bear market (yet).
But longer this bull runs, greater the odds of mean reversion.
Further we drift from 2009 without tagging the 300-month MA, more likely a sideways decade begins.
This will happen again.
You can't say we are "early" in the bull market. That simply is not true. Early is in the few years after the 2009 retouch of that very long term moving average. Can the indices still go up? Of course. But understand where you are in the cycle.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bullish Trend Continues
US500 updated a higher high this week, breaking a resistance
of a bullish flag pattern on a daily time frame.
I think that the market will rise even more.
Next goal for the bulls - 6359
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPX: Tariffs deal (un)certainty Investors' optimism continued to hold at the U.S. equity markets another week in a row. The S&P 500 posted another weekly winning streak, supported by solid earnings of companies included in the index. The index also reached another all time highest level, with Friday's level of 6.388, gaining around 1,5% for the week.
Tech companies were once again main contributors to the surge of the index. Alphabet posted better than expected quarterly results, supporting the surge in share price of 4%. Tesla shares gained 3,5% for the week. The company reported strong vehicle delivery numbers and progress in AI-driven autonomous driving technology. Analysts are noting that 82% of all companies included in the S&P 500 index, that have already reported quarterly results, have beaten the market expectations.
Alongside strong earnings reports, recent advancements in U.S. trade negotiations have contributed to market gains. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump announced a significant trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% reciprocal tariff arrangement—an important step toward redefining trade terms between the two nations. Additionally, the U.S. and Indonesia have reportedly reached a framework agreement for a trade deal, reflecting a broader U.S. effort to strengthen and stabilize trade partnerships in Asia. On Friday, President Trump expressed confidence that more trade agreements will be finalized ahead of the August 1 deadline for new tariffs. One of these possible deals involves the European Union. Investors have welcomed these developments, as they help reduce tariff-related uncertainties and ease concerns about escalating trade disputes that could disrupt global supply chains and impact corporate earnings.
The week ahead brings a bunch of important macro data for the U.S. as well as the FOMC meeting, where Fed members will discuss a potential change in interest rates. Markets are currently not expecting that the Fed will make a move at this meeting. Certainly, with JOLTs, NFP, PCE data in combination with the FOMC meeting, the week ahead might bring back some higher volatility in the US equity markets, in case of any unexpected news.
US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trends, colored levels,
and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT