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SP500 trade ideas

S&P 500 correction before the global fall.S&P 500 correction before the global fall of the usa stock market. Hey traders! I’m sure many of you have noticed that after the introduction of retaliatory tariffs, the markets started getting pretty choppy. The S&P 500 took a serious dive. • On the weekly chart, I’ve marked a support level + the 161.8% Fibonacci level, where we might see a bounce back to the $5680–$5800 range. • But from there, I think we could see the start of a major crash—both in equities and crypto—that could last 1–2 years. • Based on my estimates, the S&P 500 could drop back to 2020–2021 levels, a wide range of 2200–3000. • For Bitcoin, we’re talking around $5000; for Ethereum, $100–$300; and for Solana, $2–$12. 3D Chart: 3W Chart: Real-world events that could tank the stock market this hard: Global Recession: If major economies (US, China, EU) slide into a recession at the same time—think trade wars, rampant inflation, or a debt crisis—investors will dump risky assets like hot potatoes. Trade War Escalation: Harsher tariffs between the US and China/EU could wreck supply chains, crush corporate earnings, and spark a full-on market panic. Geopolitical Conflict: A big blow-up—like a full-scale war or crisis (say, Taiwan or the Middle East)—could send capital fleeing to safe havens (gold, bonds), while stocks and crypto get slaughtered. Collapse of a Major Financial Player: If a big bank or hedge fund goes bust (Lehman Brothers 2.0-style) due to an overheated market or bad debt, it could trigger a domino effect. Energy Crisis: A spike in oil/gas prices (from sanctions or conflicts, for example) could kneecap the economy and drag risk assets down with it. Market Bubble Burst: If the current rally turns out to be a massive bubble (and plenty of folks think it is), its pop could pull indexes down all on its own. Looming Wars: A potential Russia-Europe war starting as early as 2025, or an Iran-Israel conflict that drags in multiple nations, could destabilize global markets, spike energy prices, and send investors running for the exits.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SergioRichi
SPX - Melt up & Crash series [3]Blue parallel channel held perfectly while many were bearish! Now has a date with the top rail, maybe at 2.618 intersection who knows... Expanding megaphone (green) had false breakdown, if it breaks back in and upwards = huge bullish move. So much room on the RSI to run with huge positive divergence. Not financial advice. Amazes me how long these patterns take to form, for them to be concrete and actionable. Hopefully this series is the last one I post. Realistically just waiting for this low to be set. Think this could be it.
SP:SPXLong
by mypostsareNotFinancialAdvice
SPX developing a wedge similar to 2022As I write this futures are sharply down to 5440 and ViX is at 40. I expect to see a short technical bounce to about 5550, being at major trendline. The wedge formation is similar to 2022. A breakout from Wedge would be sharp either way. If it holds at this level for a couple of weeks then I expect to see a bounce to 5775.I had said earlier in my vix analysis we are in 2022 mode. Market could see a relief rally only to realise that there are still many unknowns. The impact on labour market due to immigration policies, retaliation of other countries and negotiation results thereof, impact on consumer sentiments and extent of inflations due to tariff. Weakening of US dollar will only add to inflation pressure. Trump has only accelerated BRICS agenda of moving away from USD Citadel,Millennium and many other hedge fund are having liquidity problems and FED is been asked to setup a bailout fund for these crooks. They are the highest leveraged entities. A weaker market will precipitate another financial crisis. So far the financial sector hasn't been devalued liketh tech and semi's. I think their turn will come once the market have finished dealing with tech valuations. Once market gets this, it will see a sharp selloff, which is better than slow grind down over months as far as I am concerned When trump says, he doesn't care about the stock market, I think he knows it is overvalued, just like Warren Buffet did last year and sold off most his positions and now sitting on largest cash in history, waiting for it to come to his level of expectation which to to my mind cant be just 10% bat rather like 30% write off in the en, to entice savvy investors like Buffet and Michael Burry to re-enter and clean out the garbage investors like the hedge funds
SPREADEX:SPX
by krisoz
SPX to find sellers at previous resistance?SPX500USD - 24h expiry Daily signals are bearish. Short term bias has turned negative. Previous resistance located at 5700. 20 1day EMA is at 5699.8. 5705.4 has been pivotal. We look to Sell at 5699.5 (stop at 5743.5) Our profit targets will be 5585.5 and 5565.5 Resistance: 5630.0 / 5658.9 / 5700.0 Support: 5602.4 / 5564.3 / 5495.3 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
The Stock Market Decline Appears to be only in the US as of nowLast week on one of my member live videos I pointed out to the attendees that European markets were currently at, or very close to their All-Time highs...whereas in the US, we've entered the technical definition of a stock market correction...(down 10%). If you're so inclined to Google an economic calendar, it also appears the economic metrics like CPI, unemployment, etc... appear much better as well. There's an old adage in the markets.... "When the US sneezes, the global economy catches a cold" . However, at this very moment in time, the only thing that appears sick is the US. Maybe that changes with time. I suspect that will be the case...but in any event, one thing that is clear is that our stock market indices are signaling that whatever economic sickness is to be contracted, it will have originated here...in the United States. That is certainly a new phenomenon. For the past couple years I have been warning my members (and followers here on Trading View) of a long-term top in the stock markets. Week after week in my trading room, I have commented that I believe I have all constituent waves accounted for, to the best of my ability, to say with a high degree of confidence that a super-cycle wave (III) has topped . What we have lacked is the price action to confirm that statement. This morning, I cannot tell you we have confirmation. That confirming probability only comes when price declines below the area of the wave 4 of one lesser degree. That area is outlined in the SPX daily chart entitled the "Must Hold Region". We are not there yet, nor do I think price makes a bee-line there in one shot. Therefore, I am NOT in panic mode this morning because I do believe we need a retrace higher and only that retracement's structure will inform us the higher probability of future price subdivisions....(higher or lower). Panic is the necessary trader behavior needed to decline in such fashion as I believe a super cycle wave (IV) will start out. However personally, I do not think it's today. Futures are red this morning and closer to the recent lows than last week...the headlines surrounding the stock market appear very negative...but as of this morning, the MACD indicator on intraday charts is saying this type of sentiment is getting slightly weaker and NOT making new lows. Therefore, I continue to maintain the price and technical indications tell me a minor B is either currently underway, or will be confirmed in the short term. Until those parameters get flipped, I'll reserve my panic (so to speak) for the c of (c) of intermediate (A) into the must hold region later this year... where it will probably be justified at that time. Best to all, Chris
CBOE:SPX
by maikisch
2
Don’t Let a Green Candle Fool YouDon’t Let a Green Candle Fool You | SPX Analysis 01 April 2025 We got the “boing” – but not the bounce that changes anything meaningful. Monday opened like a trap door - gap down, quick poke near 5500, and then a full day of rallying that had CNBC anchors high-fiving like they just called the bottom of the century. Except… they didn’t. We’ve seen this act before. One-day rallies that puff up like a balloon, then vanish. And just like before, I’m not chasing a single green candle or headline optimism. I’m not a bull until 5700 is reclaimed - simple as that. That’s the bear flag failure point, the GEX pivot, and my personal line in the sand. So while the crowd celebrates a maybe-double-bottom, I’m keeping my slippers firmly on the bear side of the wardrobe. And if Monday proved anything, it’s this… Sometimes, the trades you forget about end up being the ones that pay. This Bounce Doesn’t Fool Me – Here's Why I’m Still Short Let’s call it what it is: a rally inside a bearish structure. Until we break the top of that structure, it’s just noise. Here’s what really matters: Monday gapped down, dropped toward 5500, and then staged a rally. Everyone’s calling “double bottom!” - but I’ve seen more convincing bottoms on a bowling ball. These reversal days have been common lately – I counted five in the last six weeks. We’re still under 5700, which is the GEX flip, the flag failure, and the bullish invalidation. That means I’m still riding: Bear Swing #1 – opened last week, still on. New aggressive shorts – 10-min bearish Tag ‘n Turn below 5500 only. Bonus: A Forgotten Trade Hit Target on Monday You’ll love this. I had a bearish swing from around 20 March. Honestly, I forgot about it. Wrote it off. It was gathering dust in the corner of my options book. Then, boom – Monday open… "Order Filled". Target hit. Gap did the job. Payout in the pocket. It’s a reminder every trader needs: “It ain’t over until expiration… and sometimes not even then.” GEX Analysis Update Whole and half numbers acting as support and resistance Expert Insights:  Avoid These Rookie Mistakes ❌ Mistake #1: Getting Sucked Into Green Candles Just because the market bounced doesn’t mean it’s time to flip bull. Watch the levels, not your feelings. ❌ Mistake #2: Cancelling Too Early  The Trade’s Not Over Just Because You’re Bored Most traders kill good trades because they get impatient. They cancel too soon. They “manage the trade” to death. Or worse, they chase a green candle and flip bias on a whim. Here’s what Monday reminded us: ✅ Let the trade breathe. That bear swing from 20 March? Forgotten. Ignored. Hit target anyway. ✅ Stick to your plan, not your mood. The market rallied. But did it change the structure? No. Still below 5700. Still bearish bias. ✅ A good trade doesn’t need your babysitting. Set the rules. Place the trade. Walk away. Check back later with a smile. The traders who win are the ones who stop trying to outsmart their own system. --- Fun Fact In 1999, a 15-year-old stock trader named Jonathan Lebed made over $800,000 pumping penny stocks from his bedroom... before the SEC came knocking. Moral of the story? Markets will always reward confidence, consistency, and a little bit of cunning – but it’s the trader who sticks to a rule-based system who lasts beyond the headlines.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
How far will the SP500 eventually fall?There are different numbers here. Most people are heading towards a reasonable range, but there are also extreme statements, and so let's look at what the reality is. In addition to the technical side, which indicates how far it can possibly fall, do not forget that there is also a very strong fundamental and I would even say psychological side here, and all this can be different in just 2 hours if our "favorite" person changes his plans for tariffs, which is also very possible. Therefore, any technical picture now depends on his decisions. So. Turning to the weekly chart, it is clearly seen that the dynamic support line from the accumulated volume lies at $3300-3365. The signals for reversal are clear (the green triangles below). A return there would be a relative return by June 2024. The daily is at $5378-5402, but there it is clear that the decline is logical to continue a little longer. In fact, during the crisis on August 5, both almost coincided and held up. On the 4-hour chart, things are similar. The indicators are screaming "buy". Based on all this, I think the price will fall NO more than $5365-5400 . These are very good entry points, but I do not advise anyone to trade until April 2, although I think things will become clear later today or tomorrow. Everything can change and we will not reach these levels just from two lines written by Trump. www.tradingview.com
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by kometata
2
Trade War PerspectiveSure, tune in to your favorite youtube finance doomer or the news, and it will sound like the end of the world has arrived. I personally feel like this tariff crisis is cover to air out all the dirty laundry that's been hidden the last few years. The AI bubble, the stimmy repayment, the imaginary gold, the "forgot how to grow economy" (credit that last one to Eurodollar University), etc etc. Take a look at this chart. If this is "the end" we have BARELY begun the descent. These types of corrections happen routinely. The point is, don't panic. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY and don't get emotional. Good luck out there. Don't get flushed down the tariff toilet.
SP:SPX
by MonsterStockPicks
S&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's TariffS&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's Tariff Announcement As shown on the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, the benchmark US stock index dropped below 5,450 points for the first time in 2025. This decline reflects the US stock market’s reaction to the tariffs imposed by the White House on international trade. According to Reuters: → President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on most goods imported into the United States, with Asian countries being hit the hardest. → This move escalates the global trade war. "The consequences will be devastating for millions of people worldwide," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adding that the 27-member EU bloc is preparing to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail. Financial Markets’ Reaction to Trump’s Tariffs → Stock markets in Beijing and Tokyo fell to multi-month lows. → Gold hit a new all-time high, surpassing $3,160. → The US dollar weakened against other major currencies. The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is now trading at levels last seen in September 2024, before Trump's election victory. Investor sentiment appears to have turned bearish, with growing concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs, as fears mount that they could slow down the US economy and fuel inflation. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) The bearish momentum seen yesterday signals a continued correction, which we first identified in our 17 March analysis. At that time, we mapped out a rising channel (blue) that began in 2024, suggesting that selling pressure might ease near its lower boundary. However, Trump's policy decision has reinforced bearish confidence, and now the price may continue fluctuating within the two downward-sloping red lines. This suggests that the long-term blue growth channel is losing its relevance. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
Stocks jittery as markets await tariffs Volatility was again the name of the game in equity markets as investors braced for President Donald Trump’s impending tariff announcement, which promises to reshape global trade dynamics. With uncertainty swirling around the scope and impact of his so-called reciprocal tariffs, there remains little consensus on how markets will react as the final deliberations unfold. A few headlines that have come out: Trump administration official has confirmed that Amazon has put in a bid to buy TikTok Tesla Inc. jumped 5% on hopes Elon Musk will refocus on the carmaker as a news report suggested his time as a top adviser to Trump may end soon. US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% -- Sky News The bands will differ by both country and industry depending on how the White House views barriers to trade. CNBC: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING REVOCATION OF TARIFF EXEMPTIONS FOR CHEAP SHIPMENTS FROM CHINA - SOURCE Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight - Reuters The key resistance area to watch today is between 5670 to 5695 - as shaded in yellow on the chart. This zone was previously support and has now turned into a bit of resistance, capping today's gains. Will the selling pressure resume from here or do we go back above it? It all depends on severity of tariffs. In the event we go lower, then the area between 5500 to 5550 is the key support zone to watch. In the event the market go higher, and break through 5670 to 5695 zone, then the 200-day average and prior resistance near 5770-5787 will come into focus next. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
1