SPXFilled gap at 5842.90, around first quarter of 2025 range. Should be a good long trade into March with targets at the remaining unfilled gap up near highs.
SP500 trade ideas
T/R zonesThis idea is based on transient/recurrent zones
Very high probability (90%+) for the price to hit TP.
Probability was calculated on TF 5min.
S&P 500 Drops Below 100-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 has broken below its 100-day simple moving average (SMA), a key technical level that many traders and institutions use to gauge trend strength. Historically, when the price falls below this moving average, it often signals a potential shift in market sentiment.
What This Means:
🔹 Potential Trend Reversal? If the index fails to recover above this level, we could see increased selling pressure, leading to further downside.
🔹 Bearish Confirmation: A sustained close below this moving average might attract more short sellers, reinforcing a downward move.
🔹 Buying Opportunity? If buyers step in and reclaim the 100-day SMA, this could be a temporary dip before resuming the uptrend.
Are we looking at the start of a deeper correction or just a pullback before new highs? Let’s see how the market reacts!
#SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverages #TradingStrategy
Bulls and Bears zone for 02-28-2025We had six down days in a row which we have not seen in a while. S&P is probably testing January Lows.
Level to watch: 5888 --- 5886
LongLong.
Looks like good trades
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice.
SPX the bullish case to 7k or is the top in now? or bearish?Here are the levels for bull or bear on the SPX based off a fib extension from the macro lows.
What is interesting is how the price has reacted off the 0.618 and 0.5 levels suggesting that it has further to go because we have broken out
However if you draw another fib extension from the lows it shows a top around 6100-6150 range where we are now.
Good luck - lets hope the bulls win out and crypto takes off too. If you do the same analysis on the Nasdaq fib tops out at 26,400 where fib is equal to 1. that implies Nas to over perform to 20-25% from todays levels hence supports the argument here for higher prices on the SPX
SPX needs to close above $6,700 next month to be bullish. The 3 month on a breakout indicator is doing a higher low which signals a market reversal. The Red line on the Breakout indicator is a simulation if SPX will close above $6700. Usually, the market tops at the red step average, if SPX can close above that, it will be a massive move to the upside, if it touches it or barely touches it, it might be on a reversal. The support is the Step Average Blue line but im looking for it to go easily on the Green Step Average line.
SPX Downside Continuation Post Trend BreakdownAnticipating selling pressure to continue into weekend with SLD/OPEX headwinds. ES broke below key 6030 level and will need to find support above 6k to maintain bullish positioning. SPX closed the week at 50EMA but a failure and Monday open below 6k likely leads to downside opportunity at lower trendline around 5960-5970.
Positions: Feb26 6,000P
$SPY $SPX Pullback to Gap Fill? I've been waiting for a rocket to AMEX:SPY $630 but my monthly tells me that February wants to close red. Here is my daily with a fib that we cant seem to hold above although today we did close above once I have been waiting patiently in this box unlike others, I have constantly reiterated, don't try to be a hero inside of the box. Now that the Box seems to be pushing towards the upside, I can't help but notice we continue printing bearish candles regardless of direction. Today we closed with a Hangman, which begs the question, could we perhaps lean bearish for two of the most bearish weeks of the year in comparison? I'd like to think I'm not wrong here and we will get a spill before anyone gets an expected blow off top. Be careful out there, volatility remains present and the VIX was above the 50DMA last time I checked. If we can get this gap fill and start moving back up, I will be confident in the gap fill being bottom. Seeing as $593 AMEX:SPY alert for bottom never filled, I will have to assume it's still a possibility. Taz out.
S&P 500 Market Discourse: A Resilient Ascent Toward 6125 Appears
It is becoming increasingly evident that the S&P 500 has delineated a formidable bottom, laying the groundwork for an impending resurgence of bullish momentum. A confluence of technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors suggests the index is poised for an elegant ascent, with 6125 emerging as a plausible target in the forthcoming horizon.
The recent retracement, though disconcerting to the unseasoned observer, bears the hallmarks of a market in the throes of recalibration rather than capitulation. Price action has exhibited a graceful reverence for established support structures, while diminishing sell-side velocity intimates a waning bearish resolve. Such behavior is quintessentially indicative of an impending reversal, as astute market participants gradually reassert their influence.
Technically, the landscape is increasingly conducive to a bullish revival. Momentum oscillators, having languished in oversold extremities, now signal the nascent stirrings of upward impetus. Volume dynamics further reinforce this narrative, as the tapering of distribution suggests an ebbing tide of pessimism. Notably, harmonic price structures and Fibonacci retracement confluences lend credence to the hypothesis that the recent nadir represents a durable cyclical inflection point.
From a fundamental vantage, the market’s capacity to endure macroeconomic vicissitudes and adapt to shifting monetary postures exemplifies its inherent fortitude. Corporate earnings have displayed an admirable resilience, while liquidity conditions, though fluid, remain sufficiently accommodative to sustain risk assets. As sentiment steadies and capital migrates back to equities, the gravitational pull toward higher valuations is likely to accelerate.
In summation, the prevailing evidence suggests that the S&P 500 has gracefully navigated its corrective phase and now stands on the precipice of a renewed ascent. Absent an exogenous shock of profound magnitude, the index appears destined to reclaim lost ground, with 6125 serving as a beacon for the ensuing bullish expedition.
SPX: Buy ideaOn SPX we would have a high probability of having an uptrend after a rebound on the support line and also with the breakout of the vwap.
Financial Cycle (not Economic Cycle) - Chu kỳ tài chính Financial cycle:
- 10Y down and sideway -> Gold up (*)
+ In phase (*): In 10Y down -> capital will flow to manufacturing, Real estate, industrials, etc.
- 20Y up and reaching top -> Gold down and sideway (**)
Correlate with unemployment rate:
- Rise stronger as the (**) reach its ending and vice versa
US10Y:
- Interestingly, interest rate does not affect how businesses operate and innovate economically. In fact, rising interest in long-term -> Economy doing great, innovations prosper, allowing lenders to charge high
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce back? S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at the 6007 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 6007 level could target the upside resistance at 6057 followed by the 6106 and 6146 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 6007 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5980 support level followed by 5967 and 5918.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
10D Chart shows Falling 3 , Pullback to 3/18!! $SPYAMEX:SPY shows 10D trend very clear. It is my hidden gem. We, by my charting, Should pullback until 3/18 ... not sure how far but I have plenty of targets on the way down to my ultimate target at 5200... I think we could flush to $560.. Good Luck yall. Gems I tell ya... sorry I'm so bad at explaining things..
SPX Setting Up the BounceFriday was an extremely bearish day for the market. It slid the entire day, even closing practically at the low for the day. It could be easy to surmise that we could be in for a deep retracement but this is doubtful seeing the price moves preceding this sharp drop, its rather clear we seem to be riding an expanded or running flat wave. The usual expected target for wave C of this particular type of flats roams from everywhere from 61.8 % of the advance of wave A to 127% of wave A and even further, sometimes even reaching past 200% of the distance traveled by wave A.
The key point to touch on is the unfilled gap that is present right around the level of the projection of 127% of wave A. Having this point playing in conjunction makes me lean towards expecting a deeper rather than shallow retracement.
Once we have reached the specified level, and likely going to fill the entirety of the gap, we can start to hunt for a bullish catalyst, since we should see further buying pressure and move into all time high territory.
SPX 500 - up and down movement within a daily range,Hello traders, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is Stop Loss set when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. My 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
SPX500 Setting Up for a Deeper Pullback?SPX500 could be gearing up for a bigger retracement than its cousin NAS100. After a strong bearish close last week, price action suggests it's targeting the lows. With upward trendlines under pressure, we may see continued breaks to the downside. Is this just a dip or the start of something bigger? Stay alert!
#TradFi is even more scary#Crypto looks scary, but #TradFi is even more scary😨
CRYPTOCAP:BTC holds strong compare to the DJI NDX & SPX with their Double Tops. Nothing much to say on Crypto as we need to wait until Monday and see how this picture develops - Indexes really like to V-shape brutal recovery, so just waiting😐
P.S It's not much the Bybit Hack which caused all this red rather the stock market. Btw so much panic happened around 1/1 backed and now regulated exchange - stay calm your funds are safe.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST 📉 S&P500 – 6th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). By Friday’s close, a triple top formed at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, as expected last week.
👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the double-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. The next pivot forecast is February 24. Based on timing, I cautiously assume that it may work as a correction of Friday’s movement, followed by a downward reversal from the extreme forecast on March 3.
⚠️ There is a high probability that this base cycle will be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I anticipated this in early January. A bull market does not form a third peak within the first six weeks of the current base cycle. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts.
⚠️ The most interesting event is expected on the extreme forecast of March 3, coinciding with the start of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. The start of retrograde Venus usually triggers a market crash, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility starting March 17. However, I do not expect a correction of more than 20%, as a major crash is not likely before next year.
Market should have an approximate one-third contraction.Market should have an approximate one-third contraction. Basic H&S forming.
Market Alert: Potential Downside Ahead! The S&P 500 (SPX) just closed with a strong bearish candle, dropping -104 points (-1.71%), signaling a possible shift in momentum. The index is now testing a key support level near 6,000, and if this level breaks, we could see a sharper pullback.
📉 What’s Happening in the Market?
1️⃣ Rising Interest Rate Concerns – The Federal Reserve remains cautious about inflation, and recent economic data suggests they may keep rates higher for longer. This puts pressure on equities, especially high-growth stocks.
2️⃣ Earnings Season Uncertainty – Many companies are reporting mixed earnings, with some missing expectations. Weak guidance from major corporations could fuel more downside.
3️⃣ Geopolitical Tensions & Market Volatility – Ongoing global uncertainties, such as geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions, are adding risk-off sentiment to the market.
4️⃣ Technical Breakdown Risks – The SPX is currently sitting near critical support at 6,000. If this level fails, we could see further selling pressure toward 5,920 - 5,880 and possibly as low as 5,773.
🔥 What to Watch Next?
✅ Can the market hold 6,000 and bounce? Or will sellers push prices lower?
✅ Watch for reactions around 6,068 - 6,100—if the index struggles here, more downside is likely.
✅ Increased volatility means risk management is key—stay cautious, and don’t chase trades!
⚠️ Bottom Line: The market is at a turning point. If downside momentum continues, we could see a bigger correction. Stay alert and manage risk accordingly!
