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SP500 trade ideas

SPX500USD Will Go Up From Support! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 6,031.9. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 6,180.5. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SignalProvider
1
S&P500 This Inflation Cheatsheet shows no correction in 2025.This is a chart we first posted almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below) at the time of a CPI date release, where we viewed the S&P500 index (SPX) against Inflation (red trend-line) and calling for an immediate buy: ** The 1W MA50 as the ultimate Support ** Well the price jumped +11% since then from 5440 to over 6000. The first principle of this chart is that as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, investors should stay bullish. This is because all previous multi-year rallies since August 2011 that started within a Channel Up, ended upon a 1W candle close below the 1W MA50 and transitioned into a Megaphone pattern for the new Bear Phase. ** Declining Inflation fueling stocks ** Right now we are still on a declining Inflation trend, very similar to early 2014 (ellipse shape on Inflation), while the 1W RSI of SPX is declining inside a Channel Down. This is a Bearish Divergence, which during all previous SPX Channel Up patterns, didn't make the index top until the RSI broke below its 41.50 Support (notable exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash which was a one in 100 years Black Swan event). ** SPX Target and timing ** As a result, while the 1W RSI trades within its Channel Down and above 41.50 and all price candles close above the 1W MA50, we expect the index to extend the multi-year uptrend to 6900, which would represent a +95.84% rise from the October 2022 bottom, similar to the February 2015 High. Notice that the December 2021 top was also of a similar magnitude (+103%). As far as timing is concerned, we have calculated a model based on the 1W RSI top and the start of its Channel Down. As you see at that point, SPX always makes a medium-term pull-back (red Arc). This tends to be within the 0.382 - 0.618 time Fibonacci levels and on the 2011 - 2014 Bull Cycle, that was within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib zone. As a result, applying this principle on the current Bull Cycle, the trend is now just 2 months past the 0.618 time Fib and we can expect a Cycle Top around December 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
US 500: Facing a Stern Test in the Week Ahead After closing out the best month of the year so far with a 5.6% gain in November, the US 500 index faces a sterner test in the week ahead. There are several key pieces of tier 1 US economic data and a moderated discussion, which includes the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, to consider. Backdrop for the Week Ahead: In a sleepy end to last week, the US 500 finished at a new all time closing high of 6038, a move supported by news of Donald Trump's nomination of Wall Street insider Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary. This sent US bond yields lower and saw trader expectations increase slightly for another 25bps (0.25%) Federal Reserve interest rate cut at their final meeting of the year on December 18th. Moving Forward: Upcoming events in the week ahead may assist the Fed in deciding whether they have room to cut interest rates one more time in 2024, which could help support a Santa rally for the US 500 index into the end of the year. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is released on Monday at 1500 GMT and the ISM Services PMI is released on Wednesday at 1500 GMT. Service activity has been driving growth in the US economy throughout 2024, so that reading may be more important for traders to consider, depending on whether it continues its recent trend of outperformance. Then on Thursday evening, Fed Chairman Powell participates in a moderated discussion at 1845 GMT. This may be the final time we get to hear from him before the blackout period for Fed policymakers starts ahead of their rate meeting on December 18th. Any comments he makes on inflation, the economy or the pace of interest rate cuts are likely to impact the US 500. Finally on Friday, it’s the big event of the week, with the Non-farm Payrolls update for November released at 1330 GMT. The path of the unemployment rate, currently 4.1%, may be an important factor in determining the Fed’s next move, and with it, the direction of the US 500 into the weekend. Technical Update: Can the Outperformance Continue? A past failure high is often viewed as a resistance level. When that resistance is marked by the all-time high of an asset, it can take on even more significance. Are buyers happy to pay the highest price ever and continue to sponsor price strength, or does it again attract sellers, wanting to close longs or even short an asset at historical upside extremes? Of course, successful closing breaks above a previous all-time high may potentially lead to a more extended rise, depending on developing market conditions. Importantly, last week's move higher in the US 500 ensured a successful closing break above the previous 6030 all-time high posted on November 11th were seen. While much depends on unknown futures market trends, the question now is, does this suggest there is potential for a continuation of the latest price strength, and if this is the case, where could that resistance be found? Possible Next US 500 Resistance Levels: With any asset making new all-time highs, it is effectively in uncharted territory, and it can be hard to gauge where the next resistance points may be. However, within technical analysis, we can use Fibonacci extensions, to highlight potential higher resistance points. Using the same percentages as Fibonacci retracements (38.2%, and 61.8%) the extent of a previous correction is taken, with 38.2% and 61.8% of that decline projected higher, from the latest peak. Within the US 500, using the November 11th to November 19th decline (6030 to 5836) and calculating the above percentages, we have found two possible levels to focus on, if the latest break higher does indeed see further strength. As the chart above shows, the 38.2% extension stands at 6106 and the 61.8% point at 6152, which may mark resistance, if the current strength extends into new higher ground. Of course, just because Fibonacci extensions have been successful in suggesting higher resistance points in the past, doesn’t guarantee they will do the same this time. However, if these extensions are approached, defense can be watched. And Possible Supports? If the latest break to a new all-time high in the US 500 fails to attract fresh buyers and extend current strength, what levels should be watched to the downside as possible supports? As proved to be the case earlier in November, the rising Bollinger mid-average currently standing at 5950, marks possible support, and closing breaks below this level could lead to a more extended fall in price. If that were the case, the focus may then shift to 5912, which is equal to 38.2% of the November advance. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
SPX: positive sentiment will holdAnalysts are noting that the S&P 500 ended its best week in 2024. Although the year is slowly approaching the New Year holidays in December, the market sentiment continues to remain quite strong. The index reached its fresh new all time highest level at 6.043, breaking its 6K level. One of the topics which pushed the semiconductor and chip producers shares to the upside was the Bloomberg report, which noted that additional barriers on the sale of semiconductors to China, imposed by the Biden administration, was not so severe, as the market previously perceived. Market favourite Nvidia surged by 3%, while other semiconductor and chip producers followed the move. Some influence to the equity market came also from the US bonds market, which eased in expectation of further rate cuts and its positive impact to the economy. As per CME Group FedWatch Tool there is currently 66% odds that the Fed will cut interest rates at their December meeting by additional 25 bps. As long as such a sentiment strongly holds on the market, it could be expected to have a further positive impact on the value of the equity index till its final slowdown nearing the New Year Holiday. At this point, the S&P 500 gained around 24% for the year, which is its best yearly results since 2021.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.2.2024🔮 📅Mon Dec 2 ⏰10:00am ISM Manufacturing PMI 📅Tue Dec 3 ⏰10:00am JOLTS Job Openings 📅Wed Dec 4 ⏰8:15am ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ⏰10:00am ISM Services PMI ⏰10:30am Crude Oil Inventories ⏰1:45pm Fed Chair Powell Speaks 📅Thu Dec 5 All Day OPEC-JMMC Meetings ⏰8:30am Unemployment Claims 📅Fri Dec 6 ⏰8:30am Average Hourly Earnings m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting ⏰
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
Standard & Poor's: Time is running outIn this idea i will share you the details from an Italian traders that let me think about an important correction from a technical and cyclical point of view: 1) On the max side: We are going to close a 3+ month cycle that could be the final part of the maxi cycle (max side) started at the end of 2021 and now, approaching to a close. Now we are in the third time of the 3+month cycle and we can have just another long try in the zone of the purple trendline (as drown by the zig-zag line), but i don't expect an important raise of the price. Then we can see the test with the trendline and understand better. But surely, max after the first 10 days of december we can start the descendig phase. Yes Sir, no Chrimtas Rally this time. 2) On the min side: We are on the second 3+month cycle, currently counts 18 daily bars and thinkig that we did not found a close for the first half cycle for the first month, and for what we discussed above for the max side cycle close, I expect that the time is running out and we're gonna to find a minimum also because I rember you that we are in 3rd time of the cylce started in Nov 22: first time oct 22, ott 23, second time oct 23, ago 24, third time ago 24 - ???. Then, I remember you that also this cycle, is part of the mega-cycle started after the covid-pandemic in march 2020, and that in this march it turns 5 years. So, I expect that starting shortly, we are going to start a bug desending phase with min target correction 20-25% I expect that the first interesting target from the descending point of view will be in the area of 5,702.86, low of Nov. 4,. 3) Moreover, there is an important divergence between the price and the RSI, an additional sign to support the shift in the market paradigm that I expect. If u find interesting my idea, please support me with a boost and feel free to ask questions in the comment. Thanks in advance for the attention. Hasta la vista! Omar Lima
SP:SPXShort
by omarlima9546
Market SnapshotHighly suggest you give it a read www.elliottwave.com The socionomic theory of finance (STF) proposes that economic and financial markets are fundamentally different from each other. The differences manifest at both the individual and aggregate levels and arise from the opposing contexts of relative certainty in the economic marketplace vs. pervasive uncertainty in the financial marketplace. In economic markets, producers and consumers, due to knowledge of their own values, consciously apply reason to decision making. This results in exogenously motivated objective pricing. In financial markets, speculators, due to ignorance of others’ future actions, unconsciously apply herding impulses to decision-making. This results in endogenously motivated subjective pricing. The opposing motivations of producers and consumers cause economic markets to tend toward equilibrium, mean reversion and price stability, in a process regulated at the individual level by utility maximization and at the aggregate level by the laws of supply and demand. The unopposed motivations of speculators cause financial markets to tend toward dynamism in a process regulated at the individual level by spontaneous commands and at the aggregate level by the law of patterned herding. The pricing model for economic markets is the random walk. The pricing model for financial markets is a hierarchical fractal called the Wave Principle, described in the Elliott wave model. Neoclassical economic theory and, in finance, the efficient market hypothesis fail to discern all of these distinctions and inappropriately apply laws of economic causality to finance.
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
Slowly going up for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD did not drop but slowly went up some more. It could be making an ending diagonal here. So next week we could see price go up some more. Trade idea: Wait for ae correction down to finish and make a change in orderflow to bullish. After that you could trade (short term) longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
3
S&P500 Is The Bull Run Over? Short From April 2025Above we can see that the S&P 500 has formed a inverse Head & Shoulder pattern over a 3 year period, before finally breaking this key level of resistance come support 4820. Usually we expect price to then travel equidistant from the Head to Neckline in the direction of the break. Therefore, we can see that the potential price top after this pattern plays out is 6651.5. We can also see that the S&P 500 has been trading within a parralel channel, starting with the second half formation of the Head & Shoulder pattern in October 2021, albiet with one false break below the lower trend in September - October 2023 before contiuining to respect the channel until today. This channel allows us to see where our target of 6651.5 hits out upper channel resistance line. Which happens on the 7th April 2025. Fundamentally, this coincides with the current landscape being set out by Trump, with his harsh tariffs on Canada, Mexico, Europe and China he is very likely going to cause bottleneck inflation, delayed after he initially implements them in the new year. Combine this with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, the yield curve un-inverting, geopolitical risk and energy supply bottlenecks for the AI industry. I believe we are about to see 5000 hit potentially by the end of 2025.
BLACKBULL:US500.FShort
by Who-Is-Caerus
2
S%P500 The Bull Run Is EndingUsing a variety of technical methods as well as combining previous price movements and structure we can see that the S&P500 is very very close to a potential all time high and end of a bull run, of 6100 - potentially a push to 6450. Fundamentally, this coincides with the current landscape being set out by Trump, with his harsh tariffs on Canada, Mexico, Europe and China he is very likely going to cause bottleneck inflation. Combine this with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, the yield curve uninverting, geopolitical risk and energy supply bottlenecks for the AI industry. I believe we are about to see 5000 hit potentially by the end of 2025. Stay alert, buying here is a HUGE risk. Personally, I would avoid shorting the S&P, but knowing when it will fall gives us the opportunity to put our capital elsewhere to make great returns that wont be effected by this bear season, ready to heavily invest once we see the S&P hit 5000.
BLACKBULL:US500.FShort
by PizzaExpress
S&P 500 is climbing upwardsS&P 500 is climbing upwards The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context 27.11 data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
1
S&P 500 HYPERWAVE CRASH The S&P 500 is currently going through a huge macro hyper-wave, this has been confirmed. This has already been calculated and factored into the 'algo', I'm highly confident we are approaching the final stages of 'wave 4' which will end in resumption to the downside (wave 5) and followed by the 'bounce' or 'wave 6'. After wave 6 has concluded, it's game over. Wave 7 will complete the hyper-wave and will be catastrophic to not only the markets but the economy by extension... please keep this in mind as when this all comes down we're entering something far worse than the 1929 crash and the great depression that followed.
SP:SPXShort
by BernerTrades
2
SPX macro analysis ⏰ Hello 👋 it's me your RAJ 🙂 professional trader ✨ This idea 💡 is completely my own analysis to explain situation _&_ market conditions of CBOE:SPX How this chart valid for long term 📌 explained clearly based on technical #TA 📌 #DYOR Let's go with market conditions 1st 👉 PPL 📌 thinking 🤔 big crash in S&P500 , based on economy and some other theories I don't this things go , if this happens 😂 it will vanish not only stocks or companies even goverment also get vanish Money 💰 >> PPL work / save in -> gold , bank & stocks Money 💰 >> banks -> save in ->> gold , stocks & giving loan to company & PPL 📌 Money 💰 >> companies -> save in future growth 📈 give return to retailers and keep on increasing vlaue for future like NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , NASDAQ:AMD etc .... if stocks lose 📌 PPL lose 📌 if ppl lose 📌 goverment also lose 📌 biggest revaluation 😂 This is the major index ☝️ for many stocks , did you think 🤔 it will crash 🩸 that much harder 🙂 Use 🧠 👀 Let's go with my technical analysis ⏰ #TA ->> how I am expecting macro growth 💹 👀 There tend line 🙄 at previous High 2022 > to < 2023 which actually promised trend 📉 line and even turned as resistance 📌 for 1.2yr + Finally it was broken and re-test also done 👍 turned as support 📌 💜💚 🚀 👀 According technical analysis 📌 my analysis get Invalid 📌 when month close below $3800.2 👀 There was oder block strong 🚀 support 📌 in 3 - month $4000-4200 👀 The previous order block at $4300 & $4600 easily broken 😂 These and some other theories making me push towards new high 💰 Expecting target's 🎯 🎯 :: $4880-$5018 ( easy target ) 🎯 :: $5324-$5469 ( 💯 target ) 🎯 :: $5885-$6484 ( high pressure resistance ) Support 📌 $3900-4200 This is my analysis on S&P500 on macro , i will post other patterns and chart of technical as per education under this post 📌 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🪩 disclaimer : ▶️ TQ u for supporting 💚 follow idea 💡 get updates everytime ⏰ when I updated 📌 Note 👀 👉 keeping comments , reacting with emojis , pointing us is very easy to some people They think 💬 what they see 📌 that was knowledge 📌 We need to learn market in many ways and should get adopted with experience, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won't help understanding market structure and understanding bull 🐂 and bear 🐻 is more important Economical conditions Fundamentals Technical News Sentiments Checking macro to micro having good plan and build it is very important ☺️ Some Times market easily turn suddenly bear // bull 🤣 even we need to catch 🫴 those movements is also very important ☺️ 💛 I hope i cleared my view 🙂 if any points if I miss I will add in update 📌 post Try to understand, try to learn - try to move with flexibility with market is important Have good day 😊
SP:SPXLong
by raj5_7_5
Do bulls have anything left? crash on its waySo looking, at all the key indicies, there is a good probability of the market topping soon. If you take a fib retracement from the low of 2008 to the highs of 2020, before the covid crash. If you look at the 1.618 golden ratio, you will see that the markets are begining to see some resistance. Spx about to approch its 2 fib, and approaching 1 on the trend based fib extension. Im expecting a top soon, if not december then defintely in feb/mar
TVC:SPXShort
by stupidman12212
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's abbreviated trading session, the S&P 500 index has demonstrated significant upward movement, successfully retesting the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6000 and maintaining its position above the Mean Resistance level of 6008. The primary objective is to reach the Outer Index Rally target of 6123, with the potential for further extension to the subsequent Outer Index Rally level at 6233. This notable ascent toward the Outer Index Rally target of 6123 is projected to induce a pullback to the Mean Support level of 6000, facilitating the bullish trend's next phase.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 is climbing upwardsS&P 500 is climbing upwards The S&P 500 rebounded with a modest 0.36% gain today. The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but showing a slowdown from revised data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context Yesterday’s data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
2