SPX PRICE ACTION JAN05 2025Welcome to SPX weekly. I have discussed in depth price action of SPX and if you have any doubts feel free to leave a message or comment below.
NOTE:BE CAREFUL IF YOU ARE LONG
SP500 trade ideas
sp500 - a repeat of 2020?The structure is very similar to the 2020 fractal, growth without rollbacks and the strongest dump of -30% against the backdrop of covid.
Now the situation is similar, growth without rollbacks and new viruses appear in China, the metapneumo virus, and in the US, the quaddemic.
Market movements are cyclical, I think we are in for a good rollback in crypto and the stock market, after a bull run as it was in late 2020-early 2021.
S&P 500 LOOKS BULLISH STILL.S&P500 has been in an uptrend from the lows of 2020 deflationary period. Last lap in its completion cycle is unfolding.
Sentiment is very bullish for each tom and harry in the world signifying the late stages of a blow off top.
6300 zone is a possible area for topping formation patterns before the market reverses and leaves people holding bubbles in all sectors.
AS FOR NOW BUYS ARE STILL IN ORDER.
SPX500 Downside Possible if 1M PP ConfirmsHello,
VANTAGE:SP500 could experience a downturn soon, but only if the 1M PP signals it. Currently, market sentiment and the overall trend remain strongly bullish, so proceed with caution.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
[Education] Why You Can't Break Free From Get-Rich-Quick TrapYou already know the get-rich-quick mindset is killing your trading career. You read the books. You understand that consistent profits come from proper risk management and patience. Yet somehow, you still find yourself hoping for that one trade that will change everything.
I understand that feeling. I spent 5 years trapped in this cycle. Let me share something embarrassing. I was previously managing a $200,000 funded account. My strategy was making a consistent 1-2% monthly. I got greedy. I saw a "perfect" setup and decided to risk 5% instead of my usual 1%. "Just this once. This setup is different.”
That one decision wiped out my profits and I lost that account in a single trade.
The Psychology Behind Our Self-Sabotage
Here's what makes this mindset so dangerous. We can intellectually understand it's wrong while emotionally believing we're the exception. It's like knowing fast food is unhealthy but convincing yourself that this one burger won't hurt.
The truth is our brain is wired for quick rewards. Whenever we see those trading “gurus” posting screenshots of their profits, or a picture of them partying, driving sports car, and flying first class, we can sense that they are fake. However, our emotional brain lights up with possibility. "What if it's real? What if we're missing out?"
This creates an internal battle in our mind. We know we should focus on consistent execution and proper risk management. We have to play the long game. But our emotional side keeps whispering, "Just one big trade. Just this once."
The Hidden Influence of Social Media
We're surrounded by images of instant success. Traders posting five-figure profit days. Twenty-somethings with Lamborghinis claiming they made it trading crypto. Even though we know these are likely fake or cherry-picked results, they affect us more than we realize.
I remember sitting at my desk when I was in my audit job, scrolling through trading contents on Instagram during lunch breaks. Every post showed massive profits. Nobody was posting their losses, their blown accounts, or their struggles. This created an unrealistic benchmark in my mind. My 2% monthly gain felt insignificant compared to these supposed overnight millionaires.
This distorted perspective leads to a dangerous form of self-sabotage. We start taking larger risks, not because our strategy dictates it, but because our normal profits feel "too small" compared to what we see online. We “need” more profits.
The Compound Effect of Impatience
The most insidious part of the get-rich-quick mindset isn't that it makes us take bigger risks. It's that it makes us unable to appreciate the power of compound growth.
Let me show you what I mean. When I first started trading properly, I was making about 3% per month on a $10,000 account. That's $300 a month. It felt painfully slow. I kept thinking, "At this rate, it'll take forever to reach my goals."
But here's what I didn't understand then. Consistent 3% monthly returns, when compounded, turn $10,000 into $43,891 in five years. In ten years, that becomes $192,577. Add in regular deposits from your salary, and the numbers become even more impressive.
Instead of appreciating this mathematical certainty, we chase the fantasy of turning $10,000 into $100,000 in a month. The irony? This pursuit of faster growth usually leads to account blow-ups that set us back years.
The Real Cost of "Just This Once"
We all know the phrase "just this once" is trading's version of "one last drink". It's never just once. Each time we break our rules and survive, or worse, profit, we reinforce the behavior. Our brain logs it as a successful strategy, making it harder to stick to proper risk management in the future.
I learned this lesson the hard way with prop firm challenges. I'd be up 5%, nearly passing the challenge, and then decide to take a larger position to "speed things up." Almost every time, this decision led to failing the challenge. What's worse, even when it worked, it reinforced bad habits that would eventually cost me more money.
Breaking Free From The Cycle
The solution isn't just knowing better. You already know better. The solution is building systems that make it impossible to act on these impulses.
When I finally became consistent, it wasn't because I found better self-control. It was because I removed my ability to make emotional decisions. I created rules that were specific and inflexible:
My position sizing is calculated before the market opens.
No adjustments are allowed during trading hours.
Every trade must be pre-planned with exact entry, stop loss, and target levels.
No deviation from my trading plan is allowed.
I only opened my trading platform during specific hours that I’m allowed to trade.
These rules might seem extreme, but they protect me from myself. They make it impossible to act on those "just this once" impulses that we all feel.
The Professional's Perspective
Want to know what real professional trading looks like? It's boring. Mind-numbingly boring. I now manage multiple six-figure funded accounts, and most of my trading days are completely uneventful.
I take 2-3 trades per week. Each risk is exactly 1% of my account. My average winner makes 2R. Some months I make 5%. Some months I make 1%. Some months I lose money. But over time, the consistency compounds.
This is what trading success actually looks like. No excitement. No massive winning days to screenshot. Just steady, consistent execution of a proven process.
Embracing The Slow Path
The hardest part isn't learning to trade properly. It's learning to be satisfied with "boring" profits. It's learning to celebrate a 2R winner instead of feeling disappointed it wasn't 10R. It's learning to find pride in perfect execution rather than profit size.
This shift requires a complete redefinition of trading success. Instead of measuring success by profit, measure it by how well you followed your rules. Instead of comparing your returns to Instagram traders, compare them to bank interest rates or index funds.
The Path Forward
You already know the get-rich-quick mindset is destructive. The question is: Are you ready to embrace the boring path to success?
This means accepting that:
Your first year of proper trading might only make you a few thousand dollars.
You'll have to watch other traders post bigger profits than you (real or fake).
Some days you'll do absolutely nothing but watch setups fail to materialize.
Success will come so gradually you might not even notice it at first.
The choice is yours: Continue fighting this battle alone, or get the support you need to finally break free.
Spx 500 - multi buys opportunities for next week.Hello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest trading strategy on what we see price movement on the chart. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave Count Since - 2009The S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an extended Elliott - Impulse wave.
The movement began in March 2009 and counts as complete at the December 2024 peak.
Note the very long-term RSI double bearish divergence.
If this count is correct the SPX could be in a bear market that lasts into 2026.
Major support is the October 2022 bottom.
More down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD retested the 4H FVG and dropped again. After it retested the extreme candle of the A-leg, it went up again.
Next week we could see a correction up (maybe into the Daily BPR) and another drop.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction up to finish and a change in orderflow to bearish, then you could trade shorts.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this abbreviated trading week, the S&P 500 made a wild ride pullback against a very significant Mean Sup 5870. Subsequently, it rallied robustly, approaching our newly established target of Key Resistance at 5972. This upward movement is anticipated to stabilize or continue to rise, sustaining the bullish trend. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that encountering subsequent resistance may trigger a substantial pullback, potentially leading to the Mean Support at 5870, which remains a plausible scenario.
Bitcoin: time to short!Over the past several days, we’ve seen a rise of more than 6%, which has coincided with a rally in the stock market. Bitcoin is now trading above all moving averages and near the upper Bollinger Bands line — not the most promising signal for further upside. Additionally, we observe that volumes are calming down after the recent spike.
As we move into the start of the year, there may still be significant challenges ahead that have yet to materialize.
Moreover, there is a resistance zone, along with a key Fibonacci level, in the 98-100k range, making it difficult to break above this level.
This suggests that a short-term short position might be a good option. However, it remains fundamentally risky, as the prevailing sentiment still favors buying and holding.
Your sincerely,
Mister iM
Hyg and vixWell hard to argue this thing show oscylator kid behavior. I really do hope we gonna pierce dashed line. Otherwise we may have some serious discount on stocks.
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis 3 January 2025
- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6000.00
S&P 500 index today reversed up from the support area located between key support level 5855.00 (former resistance from October, which has been reversing the price from the start of November), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse from November.
This support area was further strengthened by the support trendline of the daily up channel from September.
Given the clear daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next round resistance level 6000.00.
SELLING NAKED OPTIONS : today selling 5825 SPX put for 1 weekHere is an option strategy with the help of 4 indicators
Commodity Channel Index
Distance to Upper and Lower Bollinger Band
DMI
Parabolic
First I look at the emergence of a trend change through the Parabolic
Then I look at the 3 other measure of strengths
Most of the time selling naked works .
I am expecting my DMI indicator to move into green. Then by next week should it move back to red, I will act accordingly
US stock indices surge into week's endUS stock index futures were firmer in early trade this morning. They were firmer in early trade yesterday morning too. But that didn’t stop them turning lower as the session progressed. Yesterday’s move saw the S&P 500 hit lows last seen on Friday, 20th December when investors were dumping stocks following the Fed’s ‘hawkish rate cut’ from the previous Wednesday. It was a similar story for all the US majors yesterday, and, to show that the sell-off was tech-led, the NASDAQ 100 fell back to levels last seen at the end of November. The lows were hit early evening European time. After that, the US indices recovered somewhat, ending the day with modest losses, although, as yesterday, the mid-cap Russell 2000 managed to creep into positive territory. Does this week’s stock market behaviour provide clues for the rest of the year? Probably not. It’s fair to say that much of the recent volatility and downside pressure comes as a result of year-end window dressing and fund rebalancing, as managers shift their weightings between equities and bonds. This became necessary due to weakness in the bond market since mid-September (ironically just after the Fed slashed rates by 50 basis points) contrasting with strength across equities going back to October 2023. So we’ll have to see how things go for the rest of this month, particularly once we get past Trump’s inauguration on 20th January. At the time of writing (just after the European close again) US stock indices are staging an impressive rally and on their highs. It’s probably too late for the S&P to complete a full ‘Santa Rally’, as that would require an upward move of over 150 points today. The yield on the 10-year is back up to 4.58% this afternoon, although equity buyers don’t seem too concerned. While elevated yields may indicate expectations of stronger economic growth, rather than simply an inflation bounce, they’re also a response to the US’s budget deficit, and the prospect of the huge Treasury issuance required to cover it.
Next Big Move: Weekly GEX & Key LevelsWeekly GEX & Key Levels – Options Recap
Chop Zone (5850–6055)
This range is likely the short-term “parking” area for sideways price action.
Expect the market to oscillate here unless a stronger directional catalyst emerges.
Gamma ‘Deny Zone’ (Below 5850)
Dropping below 5850 can amplify negative gamma effects, potentially fueling a stronger downside move.
Watch for increased volatility and momentum if this area is breached.
Gamma-Squeeze Breakout Zone (Above 6055)
A break above 6055 neutralizes the call gamma wall, potentially triggering a rapid rally (gamma squeeze).
Consider bullish option plays if this level is reclaimed and confirmed.
Options Perspective
IVRank 23.8: Moderately elevated implied volatility (~1–2% potential daily moves).
Puts 87%: Significant open interest in PUT positions, especially around 5800–5900 strikes, often acting as a strong support zone.
Gamma Flip (~5923): A critical pivot where market maker positioning flips, potentially creating intraday turning points.
Practical Strategies
Range Trading in the Chop Zone
Iron condors, short strangles, or other neutral strategies.
Stay alert for any breakout that can quickly move the market beyond this range.
Bullish Breakout Above 6055
Consider call debit spreads or bull call spreads to capture a swift upside move.
Look for a confirmed break (ideally on higher volume).
Bearish Breakdown Below 5850
Hedge with protective puts or put debit spreads if you hold existing long exposure.
Negative gamma could accelerate downside momentum.
Summary
Base Case: Likely consolidation between 5850 and 6055.
Upside: Above 6055, a gamma-driven squeeze could rapidly push prices higher.
Downside: Below 5850, stronger selling pressure may emerge.
Manage risk according to your plan and remain vigilant for any surprise catalysts.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always use proper risk management based on your own trading objectives.
Key Levels for the Month ∷01.2025 ∷S&P500🔳Key Levels Overview for the Month🔲 ∷01.2025 🐍
Dynamic Resistance🔀
6015
5935
Dynamic Supports🔀
∷∷∷∷
Mid Pivot (🐻bull&bear🐂 zone ch trend)
6592
6278
5952
range of supply and demand
6383
6179
5975
Range Band 🐇
6488
6229
5969
Order of lines:
1. 🌸 Shocking Pink, 💜 Dark Orchid
2. 🟢 Green, 🔴 Red, 🟡 Yellow
3. ⬜ White
4. ❤️ Falu Red, 🌿 Crusoe, ⚫ Black
5. 🌷 Pale Pink, 🍏 Granny Apple, 🌫️ Storm Grey
6. 💙 Neon Blue
S&P500 INDEX / bearish or still bullish confirmation...S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price has stabilized below the support level at 5,935, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend toward 5,863. If it breaks below this level, the next target would be 5,808.
On the other hand, a 4-hour candle closing above 5,935 is required to confirm a bullish trend, with a target of 5,969.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5935
Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5863, 5790, 5820
Trend Outlook:
Bearish: Stability below 5,935
Bullish: If 5,935 is broken
SPX Gann Box Stacking....without textInteresting idea...every time it cracks the gray, it runs to the orange .25 Gann retrace and then pulls back 50 or so %
But what if it has failed at the grey line this time...and cant scream higher to 16k like past times...
Well if we apply about 50% down to the gray line...you arrive at 2k on the S&P 500, some 4k down..
Or..OR..maybe you only get to the 7k line which is the retracement of the .25 Gann....thenn...
You then retrace about 50% from that 7k line and hit about 3.6k on the S&P 500
This is called Gann-Box Stacking...You take the ultra low and the screaming high, before a massive correction,
then you stack those boxes until you hit present day (removed vertical bars for clarity purposes)
Neat eh??
So what are your thoughts people...run to 7k...
Or...fall to 3.6k, then 2k, or go back to the .25 of 2000/2009
Just a reprint from chart in case you wanted to copy this for sharing...
Things are only random until you throw enough pooo at it,, then the most hardy piece sticks and you see what was real and what was hanging on by a thread
SPX 2025 7000+ The most likely scenario.Experts who forecast stock market collapses and peddle narratives of financial despair often refrain from investing in the very concepts they promote; otherwise, they would face severe financial ruin on a repeated basis.
From the very beginning of this decade, I have championed a bold, risk-taking stance, predicting that these years will be remembered as the roaring 2020's, a time marked by an echo bubble of the 1920's.
This era is defined by the powerful convergence of technology, artificial intelligence, and blockchain, all propelling asset prices to new heights. The wealth generated by these colossal corporations and blockchain innovations is accumulating and concentrating, leaving behind individuals who are not part of these transformative trends.
Meanwhile, everyday people are grappling with a significant inflationary wave, as the value of their fiat currency continues to dwindle. To compound the issue, in 2024 around 150,000 workers have been laid off from giants like Tesla and Microsoft, a direct result of automation.
In this relentless struggle, machines are emerging victorious.
The age-old saying that markets lack a reason to rise but require one to fall or underperform holds particularly true, especially in the good old USA.
It’s reasonable to think that 2025 will not replicate the precise calendar movements of 2024 so it's prudent to lean towards performance tracking other years such as...
2017, the SPX return stood at 18%, marking it as the year that most closely aligns with 2025, the inaugural year of Trump's presidency.
Fast forward to 2023, where the percentage rose to 24%, making it the nearest reference point in the short term. As we are predicting a continuation of the bull market.
Meanwhile, 2021 reached a peak of 29%, representing the euphoric climax of that cyclical bull market, a scenario that could very well repeat itself in 2025.
The emerging pattern for 2025 appears to be shaped by these three pivotal years. Given that we are now nearer to the conclusion of the bull market than its inception, it seems prudent to draw insights from the trends of 2021 and 2023.
S&P 500 trends and market speculation for 2025As 2025 gets into full swing, traders are navigating a landscape shaped by two years of extraordinary stock market performance. The S&P 500 has delivered back-to-back annual gains exceeding 20% in 2023 and 2024, but analysts are signaling a more tempered outlook for the year ahead. With economic indicators, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical developments in focus, investors are keenly watching for potential trends and reversals.
S&P 500: Riding the momentum
The S&P 500 ended 2024 with an impressive annual gain of approximately 23%, following a 24% increase in 2023. This marks the first occurrence of consecutive gains above 20% since the late 1990s. The rally was fueled by robust economic growth, cooling inflation, and a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, enthusiasm surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's pro-business agenda further bolstered investor sentiment.
However, as we enter a new year, the market is showing signs of caution. December saw a pullback in equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its worst monthly performance in over two years. The S&P 500 also registered its largest monthly loss since April 2024. This correction reflects profit-taking by investors and concerns about the Federal Reserve's revised stance on interest rate cuts.
SPX projection using a look back of 100 yearsThis is the variation on the analysis I did yesterday but with a look back of 100 years, to show you the flexibility of the indicators. This is a purely technical exercise, please remember that long term projections depend on deeper analysis of fundamental as well as technical factors.
for 2025 and a look back period of 100 years,
expected value: 6383
expected volatility: 18.8%
expected range: 5277 - 7489
probability of remaining within the expected range is above 70% with an analysis window of 10 years.
S&P500 DOWN - trading ideaUS500 is showing potential for a bearish continuation. Recent lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) signal weakening momentum, and a clear downtrend line has formed. The current price of 5789 sits below key resistance, with increasing volume on price declines suggesting further downside pressure.
Entry Zone: Around 5789
Stop Loss: 6045 (above the recent swing high)
Profit Targets:
5748
5695
5650
This idea targets short-term movements within the downtrend. With proper risk management, this could be a favorable opportunity for those aligned with the bearish setup! 📉
