#SPX - 31 MarWas wrong on the move on Friday, as market trended down.
Need a bullish daily candle to negate this down move. Pullback to 5638/68 is a possible short for a move lower.
SP500 trade ideas
spx slip up Let me start by saying SPX is my baby—this market gave me vision and taught me what I now call Cerberus. It pains me deeply to see such sloppy price engineering lately. These folks have gotten real careless with their price delivery, and that sloppiness is starting to spill into the broader global market.
However, it's clear from the Thursday error that they aren't planning to completely collapse the market just yet—just wanted to instill some pain and signal to everyone it's time to gear up for the long road ahead. Here's what's about to go down, so pay close attention:
Price will sweep below the low of 3.10.25, trigger a profit-booking event, and restore some hope in the market since it'll mark the second leg of the three-drive pattern currently forming. Now, let me flex real quick: SPX WILL HIT THE 4950 AREA BEFORE MAY 2026—mark my words.
Now, back to tradable events:
Mark 5680 as your sell level.
Price will accumulate around the 5480-5460 range, and the real end of this bounce comes at 5350.
Once these trades manifest, your buy-side target is 5790.
Again, don't be the fool who tries to swing-trade buy ideas before these key levels get hit. You've been warned.
US500 (S&P 500 ) INDEX TRADE IDEA 1 APRIL 2025Based on technical analysis, the US500 (S&P 500) has broken below its long-term ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. The bearish momentum is evident as the price has closed below the lower trendline, and a pullback to the 5,558 - 5,794 supply zone could provide a shorting opportunity. This area aligns with previous structural resistance, making it a key level for institutional sellers. If price action confirms rejection within this zone, a sell setup targeting 5,279, 5,157, and ultimately 4,803 could be viable. The trade remains invalid if price breaks above 5,860, as this would indicate a shift in market sentiment.
From a fundamental perspective, growing concerns over US-China tariff tensions could pressure corporate earnings and drive further downside. Additionally, economic slowdown indicators, including weakening consumer spending and rising corporate debt, are weighing on investor sentiment. The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report in April 2025 will be a key event to watch; a strong labor market report may keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish stance, leading to further stock market declines, while a weak report could reinforce recession fears. Given these factors, a short position remains favorable as long as the market respects the supply zone resistance. However, traders should remain cautious of unexpected shifts in monetary policy or geopolitical developments that could impact overall market direction.
Cycles and PatternsThe pattern seems to be a WXY (abc X abc) I expect a low Monday with a good bull trapping bounce, but then a lower low at the end of the week.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 11th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. We are in the second phase, which appears bearish by all indications. This is a significant bear market completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in my previous posts. My preliminary timeline projections for the base cycle completion were mentioned in the previous post.
⚠️ The extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury – turned the market downward after a small bullish correction. This was anticipated last week. The market lacked the strength even to reach the resistance level at 5850. A short position has been opened. The next extreme forecast is April 7.
S&P 500 Technical Breakdown – Bearish Momentum Building?Looking at this SPX Daily Chart, we’re seeing some clear signs of weakness in the market.
🔹 Breakdown from the Rising Channel – After months of uptrend, SPX has broken below its previous rising channel, signaling potential downside ahead.
🔹 Failed Recovery Attempt – The recent bounce formed a bear flag (highlighted in brown), but today’s sharp drop indicates that the relief rally has been rejected.
🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels in Play –
The 0.382 Fib retracement was acting as support, but price has now slipped below it.
Next key level: The 0.5 Fib (around 5,550) and the 0.618 Fib (near 5,438) could act as crucial support zones.
A deeper retracement to 4,982 (0.786 Fib) isn't out of the question if selling pressure accelerates.
🔹 Moving Averages & Volume –
The price is now under the 200-day moving average (blue line), which is typically a bearish signal if confirmed.
Volume has been increasing on red days, hinting at stronger selling conviction.
🔹 Support & Resistance Zones –
Resistance: ~5,822 (recent bounce level) and ~6,097 (previous high)
Support: ~5,402 and ~4,982 if selling intensifies.
🚨 Final Thoughts: The technical structure is turning bearish, and if the S&P 500 doesn’t reclaim key levels soon, further downside could be on the horizon. Bulls need to step in fast to avoid a deeper correction.
SPX500 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
SPX500 has been in a strong downtrend, and the price has already broken the 5,599.30 support level, confirming further bearish momentum. The next key support to watch is 5,506.40 (2025 lowest point).
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 5,599.30 (now turned resistance), 5,679.90
📉 Support: 5,506.40 – If broken, the sell-off could accelerate further.
🔹 Market Structure:
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Since 5,599.30 has already been broken, the price is likely to continue down to 5,506.40. A break below this level could push the market into new 2025 lows.
🚀 Bullish scenario: If the market pulls back above 5,599.30 and reclaims it as support, a temporary bounce to 5,679.90 could occur.
📌 Risk Management:
-Wait for price action confirmation before entering new positions.
-Monitor for potential retests of broken levels.
My last warning To Donald Trump and Americansif you Attack Iran's infrastructure, America enters a shitty situation that will last for not years but for decades. you can fix the problem by supporting the Iran's King Reza Pahlavi and the people and the mullahs will be overthrown easily but you are Unknowingly doing it in a very wrong way, if you do it Stockholm syndrome will happen.
----
Price has ping on the channel edges. I hope it becomes just a simple correction but Americans ego is is in line with technicals.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index gapped higher, passing our completed Inner Index Rally of 5712 and setting a Mean Resistance of 5768. This target was accompanied by considerable reversal, ultimately causing a downward movement. On the final trading day of the week, the Index underwent a pronounced decline, resulting in a substantial drop that surpassed the critical target of Mean Support set at 5603. The Index is positioned to retest the completed Outer Index Dip level of 5520. An extended decline is feasible, with the possibility of targeting the subsequent Outer Index Dip at 5403 before resuming an upward rally from either of these Outer Index Dip levels.
Monthly Chart SPX Cautious Liquidity PositioningThis month, the S&P 500 (SPX) has shown signs of a cautious liquidity shift as investors take a more measured approach to risk. While the index remains near all-time highs, underlying market activity suggests hesitation rather than aggressive buying. I currently have no active positions.
Investors are rotating out of high-growth stocks and into more defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. This shift signals concerns about potential volatility, possibly due to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, economic data, or geopolitical risks. At the same time, large tech stocks—key drivers of the market rally—are seeing some profit-taking, further indicating a more defensive stance.
In the options market, there has been increased demand for downside protection. A rising put-to-call ratio and higher implied volatility suggest that traders are preparing for potential pullbacks rather than chasing new highs. Retail speculation has also slowed, with lower volumes in leveraged ETFs and call options.
Another sign of caution is the increase in money market fund inflows, as investors park cash in short-term instruments offering attractive yields. The U.S. Treasury’s ongoing debt issuance is also pulling liquidity away from equities.
While the Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts later this year, inflation remains a concern, keeping policymakers on hold for now. Market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed further out, tightening financial conditions and limiting excess liquidity that previously fueled stock market gains.
Overall, SPX liquidity trends this month suggest the market is at a turning point. While the index remains strong, the cautious stance in underlying market activity raises questions about whether stocks can continue higher without a fresh catalyst.
Most Depressing Chart EverThis chart is what I would consider the worse case scenario. Sideways action until we hit the Great Depression trend line. The two previous lost years are a little over 16 years long from start to break out. This shows an example of we were to complete that same pattern. We are long overdue for a correction and this would bring us back to reality.
SPX Intraday WedgieSPX threw a wedgie intraday, expected more of a bounce when it broke out, I guess there's no bounce when the algos are shut off.
Also, futures broke support after hours. (ES1! is SPX futures, I plot it all the time.)
I don't recommend going long until after the tariff announcements. This market is super sketchy now.
The Close 3-2818 monthly ma being at 535 on spy makes me feel like a flush to there on Monday is quite possible. The C wave idea is being negated as of now in favor of another 5 wave move to 535.
S&P500 Huge retest of former Channel Down.S&P500 / US500 took a big hit today following the higher than expected PCE, causing a price rejection on the 4hour MA50.
So far however the drop stopped exactly at the top of the former Channel Down of February-March.
With the 4hour RSI on the same level as March 10th, if this level holds, it will be a huge retest buy signal and will start a new bullish wave.
Based on this, we'd expect the 1day MA50 to be targeted at 5,850.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
2pm updateqqq has filled it's gap, spy hasn't Some megacaps are at strong support, where usually buyers would step in. No guarantee this reverses. Monday may be a flush to 535 on SPY
0 DTE Call Spread - SPX0 DTE Call Spread
-5755 +5760
4.48% gain on cap invested
Started at 0.5 Delta
SPX Update - DowntrendThe S&P 500 (SPX) is showing signs of a downward trend, aligning with the 123 wave target around 5220. This critical area could offer insights into the next potential moves in the market.
S&P to find buyers at current market price?US500 - Intraday
Closed the day little net changed.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Immediate signals are hard to interpret.
Bespoke resistance is located at 5853.
Bespoke support is located at 5536.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
We look to Buy at 5609 (stop at 5572)
Our profit targets will be 5719 and 5853
Resistance: 5719 / 5737 / 5853
Support: 5616 / 5607 / 5536
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Market Neutral: Nasdaq, S&P500, Nikkei225, Hang SengThe equity indices has fallen to our target and we are seeing 5-wave completions. So I think it is a good time to reduce your shorts and move from a short to a more neutral stance. The current price is also a good support for the indices.
Remember that there is a weekend risk here also.
Good luck!
US500US500 Price Action Analysis and Trade Setups (March 28, 2025)
Price Action Summary:
Weekly Chart: Long-term uptrend intact, but recent rejection near 6,200 signals a medium-term correction.
Daily Chart: Price is consolidating near 5,600 after a sharp drop from highs. Bearish momentum persists.
4H Chart: Lower highs and lower lows confirm short-term bearish bias. Resistance at 5,750 is holding.
1H Chart: Intraday range between 5,550 and 5,750. Price struggling to break higher.
Trade of the Day (Day Trading Setup)
Short Setup:
Entry: 5,700 after rejection at resistance
Stop Loss: 5,770
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,620
TP2: 5,550
Reason: Short-term bearish structure with resistance holding at 5,750.
Swing Trading Setup
Short Setup:
Entry: Below 5,550 after daily close confirmation
Stop Loss: 5,650
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,300
TP2: 5,100
10am updateMarket is coming down hard, but I believe it is a C of B with a large C wave to 5900+ next. Good luck!
Gold not looking good I thinkI do not think gold looks good, It is falling from the Head and Shoulder inverted patter.
Morning Market AnalysisToday or Monday should be a low. The possibility of a move up after open to squeeze out shorts before a larger down move is there.
