SPX : It will go higherLooks like there is more money to be made. It will go HIGHER. And the higher it goes, the HARDER it falls.
We wait, eat popcorn, and cheer it on.
Small, then Big = Higher.
Good luck.
SP500 trade ideas
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersAll right today is the day after FOMC and some big earnings and because we had big earnings yesterday we have a pretty wide trading range today so just because we are options are we could have a more volatile day
The expected move on today’s contract is between 5980 and 6095. We did close underneath 35EMA and we have a red signal line.
If we get about the 35 EMA today which future so far are taking us above, we do have a down gap from yesterday and then a down gap from Monday that we haven’t completely filled yet. We also have an up gap from last Wednesday and they do overlap. It’s a little bit hard to see but right around 6075 is the overlap .
To the downside, we have the 50 day moving average so far that has been our support this week. You could see on Monday. We did see that balance and underneath that the 30 minute two and removing average and the one hour 200 moving average those levels have been supporting us With some nice technical bounces
SPX to find sellers at market price?SPX500USD - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a top.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the high.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 6058 level.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
We look to Sell at 6058 (stop at 6099)
Our profit targets will be 5942 and 5920
Resistance: 6102 / 6190 / 6235
Support: 6030 / 5980 / 5940
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$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & targets for Today & Tomorrow (FOMC)35EMA Underneath us, island gap above us, top of the expected move on the day is 6120 above that all-time highs and 6130 on tomorrow’s contract. If I was looking at bear call spreads I’d probably do 6130/6140. Bottom of the move on the day 6015 and underneath all of that is that 50 day moving average with the 30 minute and one hour 200 Bearily positioned underneath that. Is we drop I’ll be looking to 6010/6000 bull put spreads on todays contract - Let’s go 🙌
SPX500The SPX500, or S&P 500, is a major stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It includes companies from various sectors, making it a key benchmark for the overall U.S. economy. The index is widely used by investors to gauge market trends and economic health. With a mix of tech giants, financial institutions, healthcare firms, and industrial leaders, the SPX500 is known for its stability and long-term growth potential.
S&P 500 insanely overvaluedThe Buffett Indicator (aka, Buffett Index, or Buffett Ratio) is the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP.
This ratio fluctuates over time since the value of the stock market can be very volatile, but GDP tends to grow much more predictably. The current ratio of 208% is approximately 66.62% (or about 2.2 standard deviations) above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is Strongly Overvalued relative to GDP.
The Buffett Indicator expresses the value of the US stock market in terms of the size of the US economy. If the stock market value is growing much faster than the actual economy, then it may be in a bubble.
The P/E ratio is a classic measure of a stock's value indicating how many years of profits (at the current earnings rate) it takes to recoup an investment in the stock. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 36.5. This is 79.2% above the modern-era market average of 20.4, putting the current P/E 2.0 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This suggests that the market is Strongly Overvalued.
P/E ratios can only go so high. To justify a P/E ratio that is consistently above its own historic average for long periods of time, the US stock market must not only continue to grow, but would need to continue to grow at a continuously increasing rate.
UncertaintyHyper extended tech driving most of SP gains combined with global uncertainty of Trumps next tariff plans; a correction seems due.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 1.30.2025🔮 Nightly SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Scenarios for 1.30.2025
📅 Thu Jan 30
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Advance GDP q/q: 2.7% (prev: 3.1%)
📊 Unemployment Claims: 221K (prev: 223K)
🌎Global Events:
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting: The ECB is expected to announce its monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating a rate cut.
🇩🇪 Germany GDP Release: Germany will publish its GDP figures, providing insights into the health of Europe's largest economy.
💹 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then chopping near the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Markets might overreact, but this meeting was void of new information. All things markets knew beforehand.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
We will likely bounce hard from these lower levels and hold higher.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
S&P500: Buy the dip and target 6,215.The S&P500 index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.213, MACD = 29.690, ADX = 23.794) as it has completed the technical dive following the 4H Golden Cross just like August 21st 2024, and is rebounding. The two patterns are so far similar, both rebounding on oversold 4H RSI, and the September 2024 rebound almost reached as high as the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. We aim for another close test of the 1.5 Fibonacci (TP = 6,215).
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2025 S&P500 Forecast Guess by Tim WestI included 2024's guess that I posted here in January last year which turned out to be quite accurate in terms of "action" and "direction". The volatility the market saw with wild swings back and forth was outlined on here as we reached the clusters of guesses from Wall Street estimates.
This is an old technique that I learned from Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments and from Forbes Magazine. His wise and witty insights were the foundation of my investment strategy when I started investing in the mid 1980's.
Basically, when you see what the "market expectations" are for a market like the FOREXCOM:SPX500 or S&P500 Index, you can then figure out what needs to happen to get the market to their estimates and realize the market will go to somewhere else other than their guesses.
With 2024 showing a majority of "less than historical average" forecasts and more downside forecasts, it was quite clear that the market could easily outpace or outperform those forecasts.
Now that 2025 shows that analysts are looking for an average year or more, I think it is safe to say that we won't get an average year.
We now have a rising US dollar, which hurts overseas earnings. We also have higher energy prices which also hurts earnings. And yet we have plenty of cash on the sidelines as everyone who missed the rally is hoping to buy on a decline and others are just happy to earn 5% on their cash balances thanks to an ultra-tight Fed (compared to the last 20 years).
So, I expect more of the same that we have seen in January and I also expect sharp declines if we get any moves above the highs and up towards 6500 on the SPX.
Pivot Points Part 1: Understanding the PivotWelcome to this two-part series on one of the oldest and most reliable tools in short-term trading: pivot points .
First developed in the trading pits of Chicago, pivot points gave traders a quick and consistent way to identify potential turning points for the trading day. Despite the evolution of markets from open-outcry to electronic trading, pivot points have stood the test of time. They remain a valuable tool for traders, providing a clear roadmap to navigate intraday price action.
In Part 1, we’ll focus on the pivot point itself—what it is, why it’s so effective, and three ways to incorporate it into your trading. In Part 2, we’ll build on this foundation by delving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot.
What Is the Pivot Point?
At its core, the pivot point is a calculated price level based on the previous session’s high, low, and close:
Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
This level acts as the day’s central reference point, dividing the market into two zones. Prices trading above the pivot point generally suggest bullish sentiment, while prices below it indicate bearish sentiment.
Day traders use the pivot point to gauge market bias for the session. If the price opens above the pivot and holds there, it often signals that buyers are in control. Conversely, if the price opens below the pivot and stays below it, sellers likely dominate.
The pivot point frequently acts as a magnet for price action, with the market often testing it multiple times during the day. This dynamic adaptation to the prior session’s activity makes it especially useful for short-term traders seeking actionable levels.
Pivot Point: S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The Key Advantage: Objectivity
One of the standout features of pivot points is their objectivity. Unlike other technical tools that rely on subjective settings or interpretations, pivot points are calculated using a straightforward formula. This standardisation is a crucial advantage because it ensures that many traders are watching the same levels.
This widespread attention gives pivot points their strength. They act as a universal benchmark, creating a self-reinforcing cycle: when many traders anticipate reactions around a pivot point, the likelihood of significant price action at that level increases.
This objectivity also benefits newer traders by providing a clear, consistent framework for interpreting price movements. Pivot points eliminate guesswork, allowing traders to focus on developing strategies around reliable levels.
Three Ways to Use the Pivot Point in Your Trading
1. Developing a Bias
Where the price opens relative to the pivot point can set the tone for the session. In markets with a defined open and close, such as equities, the opening price’s position above or below the pivot point is a key indicator of sentiment.
For 24-hour markets like forex, the calculation is based on the high, low, and close from the New York session—the most significant closing price. While the opening price in these markets is less critical, understanding where the Asian session has traded relative to the pivot can provide valuable insights into sentiment and potential momentum for the day ahead.
Example: Tesla
In the below example, Tesla opens the session by gapping through the pivot point on the open. This is then followed by a period of consolidation above the pivot point – setting a bullish bias for the session.
Tesla 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Recognising Price Patterns Around the Pivot
Price action around the pivot point can reveal important trading opportunities:
• Bounce: A strong bounce off the pivot suggests it’s being respected as a significant level, often leading to continuation in the direction of the bounce.
• Break and Retest: If the price breaks through the pivot and then retests it as support (in an uptrend) or resistance (in a downtrend), it can offer a reliable entry point.
• Choppy Action: Repeated crossings of the pivot without clear direction indicate indecision—often a signal to step back and wait for clearer trends to emerge.
Combining these price patterns with candlestick signals, like bullish engulfing patterns or bearish pin bars, can add further confidence to your setups.
Example:
Here we see a classic ‘break and retest’ pattern form around the pivot on the FTSE 100 5min candle chart. Having initially held the pivot as support, the market breaks below the pivot and the retraces to retest – using the pivot as resistance and creating a well-defined short setup.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Enhancing Context with VWAP
Combining pivot points with the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) can give traders an additional layer of confirmation. Both tools are objective, widely used, and calculated from historical price data, making them a natural pairing.
If both the pivot point and VWAP align as support or resistance, it strengthens the level’s importance.
Divergence between the two can provide insight into whether short-term momentum might conflict with longer-term trends.
By blending these tools, traders gain a more comprehensive view of market dynamics.
Example:
In this example we see price action on EUR/USD across two days. The first day sees the market make steady gains as prices hold above the daily pivot and VWAP. The second day shows a more mixed start with prices chopping back and forth on either side before finally establishing a foothold above VWAP and the daily pivot – leading to steady gains during European trading.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Final Thoughts
The pivot point is more than just a calculated level—it’s a bridge between historical price action and current sentiment. Its simplicity, objectivity, and widespread use make it an indispensable tool for day traders. Whether you’re gauging market bias, identifying key price patterns, or combining it with other tools like VWAP, the pivot point provides a solid foundation for making informed decisions.
In Part 2 of this series, we’ll explore how the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point have the potential to add further precision to your short-term trading.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
SPx / Fed Watch: Should AI Volatility Raise Concerns?Should the Fed Worry About an AI Wobble?
In this week's meeting, the Fed may not address the DeepSeek AI saga, but AI-driven volatility warrants close attention. Monday’s Nvidia-led selloff, triggered by China’s cheaper DeepSeek AI, rippled into U.S. interest rate markets, highlighting AI’s growing impact on financial stability.
S&P 500 Analysis – Market Outlook
The S&P 500 stabilized at a key bullish zone and continues to exhibit strong upward momentum, aligning with our previous expectations.
A potential retest of 6051 is likely before resuming the upward movement. A successful rebound from this level would strengthen the bullish case, targeting 6103 and 6122 before attempting to break 6143, which would mark a new all-time high (ATH).
The index must maintain price action above the 6051 pivot level for the bullish trend to remain intact. A 4-hour candle close below 6051 could shift momentum towards a bearish correction, with downside targets at 6020 and 5997.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 6077
Resistance Levels: 6103, 6122, 6143
Support Levels: 6051, 6020, 5997
Trend Outlook
📈 Bullish as long as the price remains above 6051.
⚠️ A sustained break below 6051 could trigger bearish pressure toward 6020.
Previous idea:
S&P 500 Rebounds After Monday’s DropS&P 500 Rebounds After Monday’s Drop
The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) has recovered following Monday’s sharp decline, which was triggered by the success of Chinese startup DeepSeek and its AI model. As of this morning, the index is trading above the week’s early high.
This resilience suggests that the stock market has stabilised ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, scheduled for today at 22:00 GMT+3. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but the key question is what stance Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take now that Donald Trump has officially assumed the U.S. presidency. Trump has already stated at the Davos forum that interest rates should be lowered. Powell’s press conference is set for 22:30 GMT+3.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that the price is approaching the 6,100 level for the third time. The first two attempts to break above this level (marked with red arrows) were unsuccessful.
From a bullish perspective:
→ The long-term trend remains upward, as indicated by the moving average.
→ A successful breakout above 6,100 could turn this level into strong support, similar to how 5,660 acted previously.
However, it is also possible that:
→ Powell’s remarks today will be more hawkish than expected.
→ The market may react negatively.
→ The price could make a bearish move, reinforcing the relevance of the downward channel (marked in red).
Prepare for heightened market volatility this evening.
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Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 1.29.2025🔮
📅 Wed Jan 29
⏰ 2:00pm
📊 Federal Funds Rate: 4.50% (prev: 4.50%)
📜 FOMC Statement
⏰ 2:30pm
🎙️ FOMC Press Conference
💡 Global Events:
🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting: Market-moving interest rate decision and policy updates.
🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP: Preliminary Q4 GDP data for the Eurozone could impact global sentiment.
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding a little, then chopping down to EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Semis haven't recovered yet, so there's a leg higher in the markets. Looking for a chop after.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Due to the ongoing momentum, we will get a massive recovery in 1-2 days and go back to 6050.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
BOOM Y'all!! SPX hit Upside Target todaySPX upside Target was hit today. 6075 was the strike if you were selling bear call spreads. I always look at the next days strike and do a 10 dollar wide spread based on that. If you did it at 6065/6075 that would have been a break even.
SP 500 cash wave B at 6069 wave C down 5908 plus or minus 4The sp has now traced out a abc rally back to .618 at 6069 I have moved to a 20 % long puts stop 6071 If the structure is correct we should see the next wave C down to .618 for wave 2 from which we should then rally to 6183 alt 6235 for the TOP of wave 3 of 5 of 5 best of trades WAVETIMER /
S&P 500 Uptrend Simple view of the long term trendlines for the S&P.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. For informational purposes only.
S&P 500 Hits Record High as Trump Pushes for Lower RatesSPX: S&P 500 Logs First Record of 2025 as Trump Pushes for Lower Interest Rates
The S&P 500 (SPX) has achieved its first record high of 2025, closing at 6,118.71, following a 0.5% gain in Thursday’s session. Investors appeared to respond positively to Donald Trump’s calls for lower interest rates “immediately,” despite the U.S. President having no direct authority over monetary policy. His statements, however, influenced market sentiment, pushing the index to new heights.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has stabilized in the bullish zone after breaking a key resistance level. The price is likely to continue upward, targeting 6143 as the next milestone.
However, if the price closes a 4-hour candle below 6103, it could signal a bearish correction toward 6077 and 6051.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 6105
Resistance Levels: 6143, 6180, 6205
Support Levels: 6077, 6051, 6020
Trend Outlook
Bullish: The trend remains upward as long as the price stays above 6103.
Bearish: A 4-hour close below 6103 could indicate a move lower.
Previous idea:
S&P 500 SELL ANALYSIS SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere on S&P 500 price form a supply around level of 5778.15 and now likely to fall so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 4822.34 and 3873.12 . Use money management
RVI Index on S&P 500 Market has been volatile as shown on the chart with the many gaps up and down of late.
This index is another indicator to show overbought and oversold conditions.
The July - August period in 2024 seemed to have the same vol patterns and the indicator pointed to overbought conditions which preceded the downturn for that period of time.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities and only used for informational purposes.
S&P500 INDEX / US Stock Futures Eye Recovery Amid AI ConcernsUS Stocks Set to Rebound
US stock futures climbed higher on Tuesday, with S&P 500 futures rising by 0.4%, as markets sought to recover from Monday’s sharp sell-off.
The recent downturn was fueled by concerns over the US’s AI dominance amidst intensifying competition from China’s DeepSeek.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price is expected to maintain a bullish trajectory as long as it remains above 6020. It may test 6051, and if a 1-hour or 4-hour candle closes above 6051, it could drive the price higher toward 6077 and 6103.
For a bearish scenario, the price must close a 1-hour or 4-hour candle below 6020, potentially targeting 5995 and 5970.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6020
Resistance Levels: 6051, 6077, 6103
Support Levels: 5995, 5970, 5937
Trend Outlook
Bullish: While above 6020
Bearish: If a 1-hour or 4-hour candle closes below 6020
Previous idea:
US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, and colored levels.
Do not open a position without TP and SL.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
S&P500 Yesterday's crash has confirmed +9.20% rebound.The S&P500 index (SPX) rebounded strongly back to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), following yesterday's flash crash and recovered most than 50% of last week's Highs. The rebound took place exactly on the former Lower Highs trend-line of December's correction.
This correction was the technical Bearish Leg of the post August 05 2024 Channel Up and the rebound on it indicates that the market has turned it from Resistance to Support. Similar Lower Highs trend-lines were formed during the last two major corrections (July and April 2024) and the common feature on all (including the current one) is that a 4H Golden Cross was formed immediately after the break-out.
What followed after the Golden Cross was one last pull-back before a +9.20% rise. Yesterday's crash is most likely that pull-back. As a result, we should now be expecting a new +9.20% rise on the medium-term, with our Target being 6450.
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