SP500 trade ideas
US500 Is Very Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for US500.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 6,060.5.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 6,114.4 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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SP500 / Bearish Momentum is under control...S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price dropped another 1.7% and still has bearish momentum. As long as it trades below 5863, it will touch 5803 and 5781.
so the consolidation will be between 5863 and 5781 till breaking, it is possible to do a correction till 5863 and then will drop.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5835
Resistance Levels: 5863, 5894, 5932
Support Levels: 5803, 5781, 5734
Trend Outlook:
Downward by stability below 5863
Bullish correction toward 5863
previous idea:
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.23.2024🔮
📅Mon Dec 23
⏰10:00am
CB Consumer Confidence
📅Tue Dec 24
⏰8:30am
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Durable Goods Orders m/m
⏰10:00am
New Home Sales
Richmond Manufacturing Index
📅Thu Dec 26
⏰8:30am
Unemployment Claims
11:00am
Crude Oil Inventories
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting
Santa Clause is Coming to Town - End of Year PreviewWe got more action than I thought we would today for sure, makes things more interesting. There's a lot of bottom signals I'm seeing right now. Probably best to wait a bit to see what happens in early Jan, but here's my thoughts moving forward.
Market SnapshotQuestions I've been asking myself lately:
Is my Bank safe?
If the market crashes will they survive?
While they fight for survival is my money at risk being with them?
Do I have enough money saved so that if my job decides my services are no longer needed my family is not immediately or permanently at risk?
What's the safest vehicle to put my money in a highly inflationary environment?
What's the safest vehicle in a deflationary environment?
What if the price of oil doubles over the next 5 years?
You really need to buy more gold and silver (not a question just talking to myself)
How will I take advantage of the housing crash that's looming?
Why haven't you opened a family trust yet and put all of your assets under the care of?
Downward pressure on S&P 500 Index intensified past daysYesterday's sell-off damaged the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. While we initially saw a bounce back at the opening, it didn't hold. This makes the 5925 level a critical point to watch as we head toward the end of the year.
For those keeping an eye on the charts, a trendline has been intact since the low in October 2023. Although it was breached during the August downturn, we managed to rally back into the bullish channel that's been forming since the fourth quarter of 2023. This channel offers support around the 5800 mark, and I anticipate this level will hold as we close out the year. Should we dip further, the following support levels to watch are 5690 and 5525.
While I don't foresee us dropping to these lower levels before year-end, it's essential to acknowledge the potential downside risk. The market sentiment shifted following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, giving sellers the upper hand for the first time since the summer.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.24.2024🔮
⏰10:00am
Richmond Manufacturing Index
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
$SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.20.2024🔮
⏰8:30am
Core PCE Price Index m/m
⏰10:00am
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
[GEX] 12/16 Weekly SPX AnalysisNow, let’s take a look at the expected SPX trading range for the week based on the auto GEX levels for TradingView:
It’s clear that we’re currently in positive gamma territory , primarily due to the December 20 expiration. However, the mid-week expirations leading up to that date remain in negative gamma territory, a direct result of last week’s bearish moves—though this can change within a single day.
Looking ahead to Friday, we expect a range-bound, more predictable trading environment, likely holding above 6045 and below 6100 based on current levels.
IVR and IVx remain low, and we don’t anticipate any increase before Christmas unless the market reaches the “total deny zone” between 6025 and 6040.
The greatest IV backwardation is present between December 20 and December 23, as average IV ticked up slightly following last week’s bearish action. This makes that particular expiration combination potentially appealing for time spread strategies.
Stay alert! The deny zone is near, and a quick move through the HVL could suddenly disrupt what currently appears to be a relatively predictable trading range. Conversely, a breakout above 6100 could spark a permabull end-of-year rally to the upside.
Retest of the rising wedgeHuge buyings took place today, but on bigger timeframes it looks like just a retest of the rising wedge. There are also hidden bear divergences on 1-4 tf on US500, US100 and US30. I guess we will see continuation of the correction to 5730-5650 area next week. The idea will be invalidated if the price returns into the rising wedge (crosses the purple trendline).
19.12.24 SPX 5872 : Sector RotationRegarding the last 15 to 20 months, on monthly chart, you will find the comparison between the major sectors within the SPX: semiconductors, finance, retailer goods, information technology.
What is interesting: sector information technology still rising, no cut, no descending, linear rsining, not hyperpolic, which is still a sign of exuberation.
The largest companies in this sector:
Oracle, Microsoft, nvidia, adobe, accenture, intel, cisco, salesforce, apple.
So main question is: if information technology is our favorite for 2025, which of the companies are the relative strongest and at fair price/earning. Answer will be given in separate chart.
And then we will well prepared downmove in SPX which i expect in jan/feb for 10-20%.
Dan, 19th of September.
Divided America, recession incomingthis just caught my eyes, a textbook abc pattern, and it can be an EW wave 5 which is equal to wave3, in that case, America will enter a recession . for now it's not high probability, when it becomes so , I will publish setups(and this is not a setup).
SPX 500 Fractal #SPX500 | #SPX | #US500
Fractal for SPX - US 500 Index, do you see a massive CRASH coming or i am wrong ?
Accumulating VOO ETF This is the ETF that I am invested in for the long haul......So, if my prediction is right, this fall to close the gap would provide a good opportunity to add more.
Last night , 3% fall is pretty scary , due to Fed's announcement of rate cut so it might not play out as I had shown in this chart. That means, after closing the gap, there is a possibility that it might falls further.........
Please DYODD
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading, the S&P 500 index exhibited considerable volatility after reaching our critical support level of Mean Support 5870. Subsequently, it demonstrated a robust upward recovery. This development is anticipated to facilitate the impending phase of the renewed interim rebound, with the objective of retesting the Key Resistance level at 6090, thereby paving the way for continuing the bullish trend. However, it is crucial to recognize that a retest of the Mean Support 5870 remains a great possibility.
Big channelLooks like S&P is heading towards the top of a big channel that began from October 2023 low. This is an attempt to predict when and where it would happen, which is approximately on November 18 at 6115.
The S&P500 is struggling to reach its previous peak
The S&P500 is approaching the 5914-5892 support range on the one-hour timeframe after a price decline. This area acts as strong support due to previous reactions and a crossover with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The price reaction to this support area indicates buyers’ willingness to increase their strength. The bullish candles that will form after hitting this level indicate a possible price reversal.
If this level holds, a move towards the targets of 6033 and then 6126 is possible in the short term. However, a break of the support level of 5892 could lead to a further decline and a drop to lower ranges. Traders should pay attention to the price reaction to these ranges as well as trading volume.
SPX will go to 62201. On the daily chart, SPX is trading within an upward channel, with the MACD lines positioned above the zero line.
2. SPX has risen for three consecutive days, breaking through the key 6000 level. The next resistance is expected near 6100. If a pullback stabilizes around 5982, it could push toward a new high of 6220 (the 6220 level corresponds to a Fibonacci retracement).
3. Once SPX makes a new high above 6220, it could signal a potential pullback, with support expected around 5700.
SPX-When will the new high be on the chart?On the daily chart, the uptrend bounced from an intact support around 5870, which is around the 50 moving average and the 0.236 fibonacci. Local peak is 6100, this is the first resistance, next is 6200-6300, the top of the ascending channel. Until then, you can rest several times. After the ascent of the last day, there may be a few days of calm until you gather strength. The rise would be supported if the Macd histogram turned positive and the blue macd band crossed the orange signal band from below.
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period.
It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally.
Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate.
So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies.
Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios.
But will 2024 follow the trend?
The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor .
This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia .
What drives the Santa rally?
Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices
Will there be a Santa rally this year?
Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas.
Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not.
The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year.
The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year.
Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all.
Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Market Reaction to Fed Rate DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The Fed Rate Decision is Coming Today!
The market is expected to be volatile due to the Fed’s rate decision, with a potential decrease of 25 basis points.
As mentioned earlier this week, the S&P 500 has been following a bullish trend, pushing up from 6022. Today, the index is likely to attempt to reach 6099. If it successfully breaks above 6100, it would confirm a bullish zone, with the potential to climb further toward 6143, especially if the Fed reduces rates by 25 bps.
On the other hand, failure to maintain momentum above 6099 could result in the index trading between 6099 and 6022. A bearish trend could begin if 6099 is broken on the downside.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6099
Resistance Levels: 6143, 6166, 6190
Support Levels: 6058, 6022, 5971
Trend Outlook:
Upward Trend: Above 6099
Downward Trend: Below 6022
previous idea:
