Watch for a Bull trapWith the market up at open you would expect buyers to come in. It could very well be a trap. Both Vix and SPX rsi is telling me a test of the low - or lower is possible in the next few days.
SP500 trade ideas
Pre market ideasI believe we will have a good move down from here to at least test of the bottom. The Vix also looks like it can go higher, maybe to double top
Low Here Would be Consistent with a New High Coming Making a low in the general area in which we trade now would be highly consistent with a bullish trend development.
If this is the low around 5200, then I think it's quite likely we see a new high.
Profits should be locked in on all previous bear entries given.
If the local downtrend breaks here, the bear move is likely over.
Trump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds SharplyTrump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds Sharply
As shown in the chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the index is currently trading near the 5,500 level.
This result is highly encouraging, considering that as recently as yesterday morning, the index was hovering around 4,900.
Why Have Stocks Risen?
The strong rebound seen yesterday evening was triggered by a statement from the US President — he announced a 90-day delay in the implementation of wide-ranging global trade tariffs, which had originally been unveiled on 2 April and led to a sharp drop in the index (as indicated by the arrow).
However, this does not apply to China, for which tariffs were not delayed but increased. "Due to the lack of respect China has shown towards global markets, I am raising the tariff imposed on China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately," said Donald Trump, according to media reports.
Overall, US stock markets responded positively to the news, and Goldman Sachs economists have withdrawn their US recession forecasts.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
Despite yesterday’s sharp rebound, the stock market remains in a downtrend (as indicated by the red channel).
From a bullish perspective:
→ A Double Bottom pattern (A–B) has formed around the 4,900 level;
→ Price has moved into the upper half of the channel.
From a bearish perspective:
→ Bulls must overcome key resistance near the psychological 5,000 level;
→ While tariffs have been delayed, they have not been cancelled. As such, the risk of an escalating trade war is likely to continue putting pressure on the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in the coming months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Could See a Huge Pop in a Bull Trap I think the odds of this turning into a spectacular short are unusually high for indices but even if so there could be some massive stop gunning to come first.
I've a big bearish bias into a rip but it would likely be exceptional rally if I have the idea right.
Picked up some longs targeting 5800. Ideally looking to make some profit and use it to bankroll the short attempt.
Would dump these quite quickly if structure broke. ATR is too big to mess about.
June 2026 Sp500 will be at 7000 pipsThis is a corrective move. Trump wanted this to deal with the US debt. Everything is smoke a Trump crash. Nothing else.
In June 2026 Sp500 will top at 7000 pips in a massive EW 5.
Now we are in EW 4. It will take some time to settle the dust as you can see.
Be ready, because after Sp500 bottoms out around 4700-4900 pips we will see a MOASS in the next year.
After that, be ready, as well, to see a massive crash to 2500 pips that we will see at the end of 2028.
shot down in flamesone more wave down is likely to 4600 area. SPX should not get back to 5200 if this is correct.
More down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Could an outlook be more accurate then this? Last week I said that SPX500USD could see more downside. I also annotated the liquidity on the chart where we could see a reaction.
And what did price? It took the liquidity, made a correction up (orange wave 2) and dropped.
Did I know the news before? No of course not. This is the power of Wave analysis.
If you've followed my outlook, you could have made much profit.
Now for next week we could see a small correction up and more downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P500: Trump's 90-day tariff pause just saved the day??S&P500 is having so far a +9.50% rise from today's low as even though Trump announced a 125% raise to China tariffs, he lowered and paused tariffs for 90 days to all countries that contacted the U.S. for negotiation. The 1D technical outlook is about to get neutral (RSI = 42.537, MACD = -181.510, ADX = 39.036) as the rebound is taking place at the HL bottom of the Bullish Megaphone, while the 1W MA200 stayed intact.
A similar Megaphone was last seen during the previous 2018 Trade War and was completed with the COVID crash that started an abnormal rally to new ATH to correct the equally abnormal crash. Needless to say, it was based on quick rate cuts but the situation isn't all that different today. Trump's stance towards negotiating, coupled with highly anticipated rate cuts, can deliver an equally abnormal rally now.
The previous HH of the Bullish Megaphone hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This time if the rally extends to the end of the year, targeting the 1.5 - 1.618 Fibonacci Zone would be considered fair (TP = 6,900).
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SPX500 eyes on 5668: Key Resistance before Trump Tariff newsSPX500 might be in "sell the rumor, buy the news" mode.
But the bounce has just hit a major fib (of its Covid wave).
If the news is bearish, this would be a perfect top to drop.
===================================================
2-days bounce into earningsBetting on a short-term bounce before earnings seasons - going into Friday 11 April.
This is my point of view regarding the S&P 500This is my point of view regarding the S&P 500. Will it play out exactly like this? Probably not, but as a general picture, I think there will be similarities.
S&P 500 to 7000+ Full analysis of current levelsI don't make a lot of videos but I thought this idea warranted one so I could share the detail. First of all, I'd like your feedback - what else do you see? what did I miss? Let me know.
Key points from this video:
We are coming up on the COVID lower trendline
We are currently sitting on a key level that has a confluence of 50% retrace on downward channel
The 61.8 retrace is in confluence with a number of key items: The COVID Trendline, Volume Profile, 2022 high, and current channel
Momentum is also supportive of a pivot
So, what do you think?
Could the US500 be setting up for a bounce?Hello,
The US500 is trading near the trend line, a key area where technical investors will be looking for a bounce back. While the current market remains choppy due to tariffs from the US president, technical analysis does offer us key areas where we can look for entries going forward.
What is certain is that this is not the time to panic and sell all your held positions. As always, during moments like these composure + a clear plan are your best line of defence. Probabilistic thinking as well can go a long way in identifying great opportunities. We’re all dealing with known and unknown variables now, and there’s no shame in saying, "I don’t know."
For me I see opportunities in the S&P especially because the news is already out. Additionally, we are coming into earnings season when the market is at the bottom. Companies that show resilience will attract early investors and the index will bounce back. So please keep your long-term view.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?Introduction
The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA?
A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun.
A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term
During Trump’s first presidency:
First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop
Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline
China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall
Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension.
This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic.
Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier)
Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies.
So why didn’t the market react earlier?
📉 Because this isn’t about tariffs. It’s about Wave 4.
The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000.
The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5
Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse.
Potential triggers:
Overleveraged markets
Global debt bubbles
Geopolitical instability
Inflation shockwaves
AI and tech overvaluation
Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?
This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash?
The answer may be both.
✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5
⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II
The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall.
Key Takeaways:
Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash
Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs
Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008
Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause
Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
Update about my previous warning about a crash of the SPX500📉 SPX500 Major Correction: Scenario 1 or 2?
In my previous analysis, I explained a scenario that could mimic the 2022 crash (Scenario 1):
🔗
However, the price action dropped much faster than in 2022, accelerating the correction.
Now, on the daily timeframe, we already have a bullish MACD crossover, signaling a potential bullish trend for several days:
🔗
Could This Invalidate the Bearish Trend?
✅ Yes, absolutely.
In June 2023 (Scenario 2), a similar situation occurred:
A bearish MACD reset was interrupted mid-course by a violent dump
This triggered a strong rebound, breaking through resistance levels
There are now strong signs that Scenario 2 might play out again.
What Does This Mean for Crypto & TradFi?
📈 If this bullish reversal holds, it could sync Crypto & TradFi, with both gaining bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe, peaking around May 2025.
Two Possible Outcomes:
1️⃣ Scenario 1 – The reversal collapses, and the correction continues 📉
2️⃣ Scenario 2 – The reversal holds, leading to a rally 📈
Let’s monitor this closely to see which scenario unfolds.
🔍 DYOR!
#SPX500 #StockMarket #Crypto #Trading #BullishReversal #BearishTrend #MACD #MarketAnalysis #Investing
S&P500 Vast Support from previous High. New 2 year Bull started.The S&P500 / US500 has reached a bottom and is rebounding.
The rebound is taking place just over the 1week MA200 but also the key pivot line that was previously a Cycle High and now turned Support.
We have seen this another 2 times in the last 10 years and both time caused a massive rally.
This puts an end to the tariff war correction and based on the chart starts a new 2 year Bull Cycle.
Minimum rise before was +58%. Target 7600.
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SPX: has the worst passed?This was the worst week for world stocks since the March 2020 pandemic lockdown collapse. This time it was caused by the simple move of the US Administration, which decided to implement trade tariffs to imports to the US, on all countries around the globe. Markets stayed in shock, just for the moment, and then, the inevitable happened - markets had only one move, and it was toward the downside. The question after Friday's sell-off is has the worst passed or is it yet to come?
At the start of the week markets tried to be optimistic, as there was not so bad data posted for the US economy. However, news regarding tariffs spoiled the game, and the S&P 500 lost almost 6% in value during Friday's trading session. Charts look pretty painful at this moment. The index ended the week at the level of 5.074, where it last stood in April 2024. All sectors lost on Friday. Tesla was down by more than 10% within a day, Apple and Nvidia were down by around 7,3%, Amazon dropped by 4,15%, even Alibaba had a strong wipe in value of almost 10%.
Considering the scale of implemented tariffs, markets will use another week to estimate the full effect of implemented tariffs, and counter-tariffs of other countries, including China. In this sense, some further moves toward the downside might be possible. This is a period of time when uncertainty is at its highest level, so any new news could push the markets higher toward one or the other side. Certainty, this is not the time when market optimism could be expected.
Buy Low Sell High (Buy The Fine Dip)
When the market becomes "Cheap" it's time to buy. And when the market is in decline "Sell High, Buy Low". At this time we saw a lot of Institutional activity, they were positioning at the top, when the index was struggling to make new All Time Highs, which according to the Wyckoff theory, it signals a reversal. It happened way harder than anticipated. There was a tiny Dead Cat Bounce not long ago, followed by a flush in the market.
We reached the main trend line that was supported during the "COVID19 recession", the "FED's Soft Landing" and now the moment of truth, the "Tariffs & DOGE" period. If we compare the three critical moments in the market, we realize they all are the same size, 1,200 points. Let's go from there and assume the flush was the same and the support line holds. We have the ingredients for a dead cat bounce, taking the index back to 5,500, which will be another moment of truth. Will the short covering and the "buy the dip" mentality will be able to hold the levels and at least make the market pause the decline and best case scenario, consolidate? This will be answered if the index keeps above the 4,900 - 5,000-ish levels.
I don't see a change in the economic policies of this administration, which makes me think a decline will happen after this Dead Cat Bounce. In which case the markets may fall back to the 3,600 levels, which will be signaled if the main support line doesn't hold, then brace for impact. The interest rates are relatively high, the inflation is ticking up and the unemployment, after the layoffs and the DOGE purge is ticking up as well. I don't see a forced slow down in the interest rates since this would take us to a scenario of high inflation and low rates, similar to what happened during the late 70's during the "Stagflation" period where after the initial high inflation peak, lowering the interest rates only exacerbated the economy.
In the Weeks ahead we'll see the "Back to Normal" and the fanfares of a "quick recovery" in the markets, so I go long in the short term and wait for direction in the range.
SPX Roadmap April 2025Similar to the 4Q18 fractal from Trump 1.0 The current one is of course bigger and better
$SPX - Nothing good happens below 200 day moving averageI want to stick to the classics. I want more clarity before I enter any trade here. My bias is bearish as of now
Could the price bounce from here?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4,963.98
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 4,800.67
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 5,158.53
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5788.8.Dear colleagues, I am still counting on an upward movement. It seems that the sellers have not lost their strength yet and I see that an update of the low in the area of 5445 is possible. Then I expect a resumption of the upward movement with a target to reach the 5788.8 area.
As usual there are 2 possible entry options:
1) Market entry
2) Entry by pending limit orders if the price starts a small downward movement.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
