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SP500 trade ideas

Skeptic | SPX Outlook: Bounce or Breakdown?Welcome back, guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today we’re diving into a complete analysis of SPX on the 4-hour time frame. We’ll break down the market structure and identify key long and short triggers for potential entries. Let’s get into it! 🔍 Market Overview Starting with the weekly time frame, it’s clear that the major trend remains uptrend . However, the daily time frame shows that we’ve entered a secondary corrective downtrend . This has been mainly driven by recent trade tariffs between the U.S. and other countries, leading the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate cuts, causing a drop in risk assets like stocks and BTC. On the 4-hour time frame , we’re currently in a range box that recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, signaling buyer strength and seller exhaustion . This adds a slight long bias, as the probability of hitting targets on long trades might be higher. 💡 Long Setup Our first long trigger comes after a break of resistance at 5,564.67 . To increase the probability, we should wait for momentum confirmation, such as 3 SMA crossover or any momentum indicator of your choice. The main long trigger would be after a confirmed breakout of the range box at 5,641.22. Be cautious, as this entry might carry some risk, so confirmation is crucial. 🚩 Short Setup For short positions, I’m looking for a break below support at 5,549.77 , signaling a breakdown of the range box. However, considering the previous fake breakout, I’d prefer to wait for the first down leg to complete, followed by a pullback or indecision candle before entering short. Let me know your thoughts on SPX ! 💬 Drop any questions or ideas in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss them. Let’s grow together, not alone! ❤
SPREADEX:SPX
by SkepticWise
1
more fall Pattern Identified: On the chart provided (originally a 5-minute chart), a descending triangle is observed between points (A), (B), (C), (D), and (E). If we group the movements on a 15-minute timeframe, the pattern would still be relevant, but with less noise and more consolidated candles. Point A: Initial high around 5567.3, marking the start of the downtrend. Point B: Initial support of the triangle, near 5520.1. Point C: Descending resistance of the triangle, showing a price compression. Point D: Lower support of the triangle, also near 5520.1. Point E: A bearish breakout below D is confirmed, with the price falling toward 5500. Analysis: On a 15-minute timeframe, the descending triangle would indicate consolidation after an initial downtrend. A breakout below D (5520) confirms the bearish continuation. Volume (not visible on the chart, but a factor to consider) likely increased during the breakout, validating the move. The price appears to be heading toward more significant support around 5500, which has already been tested. Projection: Bearish Target: If the price continues to decline, the next key level could be between 5480 and 5470, depending on historical support or the projected height of the triangle. Bullish Reversal: If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks above the triangle resistance (around 5540), we could see a further move toward 5567. Strategy: Short: Entry after the breakout at D (5520), with a stop loss adjusted above the triangle resistance (5540) and an initial profit-taking at 5480. Buy (Alternate Scenario): If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks higher, enter above 5540, with a stop loss below 5520 and a profit-taking at 5567. Risk Management: Take a 1-2% risk per trade and monitor macroeconomic events that may affect the S&P 500. Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is based on a simulated 15-minute timeframe. Be sure to confirm this with a real 15-minute chart and apply appropriate risk management.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by JAG_Trader
If SPX Rallies Here… I’m Hitting the Sell Button HardIf SPX Rallies Here… I’m Hitting the Sell Button Hard | SPX Analysis 14 Mar 2025 The lazy bear keeps rolling downhill, but if history has anything to say about it, it might just wake up for a quick stretch before heading lower again. 📌 Last time, SPX pushed down, bounced, then continued lower. 📌 Gamma Exposure suggests 5500/5520 are price magnets, with 5550 acting as resistance. 📌 A short-term pop before another drop wouldn’t be surprising. With bear swings already unloading, profits are stacking up, but there’s still plenty of juice left in the move. I’ll be watching for one more push higher before looking for the next bearish entry—unless the market decides to hand me a clean setup first. Otherwise? I’m calling it early for some live music, a zoo visit, and a St. Paddy’s pint. 🎷🍻 Let’s break it down… --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The market continues to stair-step lower, but like any good trend, nothing moves in a straight line forever. 📌 The Setup – Is a Bounce Before the Next Drop Coming? If you look at past price action, the last time SPX broke down, it: Pushed lower. Briefly popped back up. Then continued the descent. Now, we’re seeing a similar structure forming. 📌 GEX Levels Are Painting a Clear Picture Using my new toy, Gamma Exposure, I’m watching: 5500/5520 acting as magnets—price is likely drawn to them. 5550 as a possible resistance level before rolling back down. If price rallies into these levels, I’ll be hunting bearish entries. 📌 Trade Execution Plan – Stick With What Works Delaying bullish trade ideas until we clear 5700. Looking for reversal setups and pulse bars around 5550. Targeting 5500/5520 for a possible low-of-day move. 📌 Profits Locked In—Time for a Break? Bear swings are paying out, and I’m sitting in a good position with my exposure. Some tranches have already hit profit targets. If more reach exit targets, I’ll reposition if the setup aligns. Otherwise, it’s time to enjoy a well-earned long weekend. The market can move without me for a couple of days—but if the setup is there, I’ll be ready to strike. 🎷 Saxophones, zoo visits, and a St. Patrick’s pint are calling. 🍀 --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The first recorded stock market crash happened in 1637—and it wasn’t stocks that crashed, it was… tulips. 💡 The Lesson? Markets have been overreacting to hype for centuries. Whether it’s tulips, tech stocks, or meme trades, human nature never changes—only the assets do.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Did someone say, BEAR MARKET?!Oh yeah! I think it's time to start talking about the possibility and likelihood of the reality we are seeing. I enjoy doing more educational and analytical posts, and my goal this year was to do more of them again—so here we go, round two of 2025! Let’s Talk About the Market It's selling, in case you hadn’t noticed. Some may say “correction,” but I say tomato, tom-ah-to. The reality is that a bear market is, at its core, a correction. Historically, bear markets haven’t just started for no reason. It’s not like the S&P 500 wakes up one day and has this conversation with the NASDAQ: S&P: Yo, Nazzy. NAZ: What? S&P: Let’s do something new. NAZ: What? S&P: Let’s tank and shake the whole world. You up for it? NAZ: I don’t... I don’t know, I don’t think... S&P: Nah, nah, trust me. It’ll be funny. Let’s ruin some 401(k)s and give the economy a real shock. It’ll be hilarious! You in? NAZ: I... I don’t... fine, I guess. 🙄 Yeah, no. The reality is that bear markets result from multiple factors, such as: Bubbles Over-exuberance Changing economic conditions Changing geopolitical factors Many other interconnected influences Every bear market in the long history of the S&P has been the result of several of these factors combined. No bear market ever materialized out of thin air. While some crashes have occurred for questionable reasons—such as Black Monday in the 1980s—true bear markets typically result from a prolonged accumulation of unsustainable growth. This could be due to: Outpricing the average investor (which the S&P currently does). Being fueled by speculative innovation (we have AI hype today, just as the ‘90s had dot-com hype). Becoming disproportionately large compared to the actual monetary supply in which it operates (as of 2025, the S&P 500 is valued higher than the U.S. money supply—more on that later). So, as you can see, we have some basis for a bear market thesis here. Blame Trump? I see a lot of people blaming Trump, so let me preface this—I don’t support him, but I’m not about to make this a politically fueled post because that would distract from the real issue at hand. The reality is that he’s not the root cause of the market’s decline. These structural factors existed pre-Trump and will exist post-Trump once this correction is complete. However, while he may not be the root cause, he is certainly throwing fuel on the fire. His obsession with tariffs, economic instability, and personal financial gains (cough crypto cough) has arguably added to the growing lack of confidence in the market. Investors and hedge funds aren’t dumb—when Warren Buffett and other major firms pulled out before the decline started, that should have been the first warning sign. The market was already reaching astronomically high valuations. However, recovery may take longer when the leader of the economy is actively contributing to instability rather than fostering confidence. The Crypto Situation—A Warning Sign What Trump did with crypto raises serious concerns. If crypto can be manipulated for personal gain, who’s to say the NYSE itself won’t be next? Elon Musk and others have already gotten away with market manipulation, setting a dangerous precedent of complacency from the SEC. In my opinion, investor confidence should have eroded long ago. To put numbers behind this sentiment, the American Association of Individual Investors conducts a weekly survey on investor sentiment. As of March 13, 2025, results show: Only 19% of investors are bullish 60% are bearish This marks the 4th consecutive week of majority bearish sentiment Complex Market Dynamics There’s a lot happening right now that complicates the situation. Months ago, I posted a video about the US Money Supply vs. the S&P 500, available here: In this video, I discuss how overextended the market is relative to the US money supply. The only way to sustain current valuations would be to drastically increase the money supply. But here’s the problem: 📌 Increasing the money supply = higher inflation With the US already narrowly avoiding recessions since 2022, increasing the money supply further would exacerbate inflation, leading to even greater economic instability. Check out this chart I plotted, showing US Money Supply (green) vs. Inflation (red): As you can see, whenever the money supply increases, inflation follows. Tariffs & The Economy Many people assume that tariffs increase the money supply—but that’s not how it works. The USA is not self-sufficient (no country is), and it still relies on imports. Who actually pays the tariff? Not the foreign country—the domestic consumers do. For example, when an American buys a product made in China, they pay the tariff cost, which is then sent back to China. It’s a net-zero game that hurts both economies without providing any real financial advantage. Let’s Get Mathy 🤓 Now, let’s bring in the math. In my last money supply video, I used visual scaling and qualitative comparison. But for a rigorous analysis, we need to: Assess cointegration Ensure stationarity Develop a cointegrated pair regression If the US Money Supply and the S&P 500 are cointegrated and stationary, we can use the money supply to predict the S&P’s valuation. And guess what? They are. Using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (for stationarity) and the Johansen Cointegration Test, we get positive results: This confirms a strong relationship between US Money Supply & the S&P 500 across multiple cointegrated vectors. The Cointegration Equation Running a cointegration regression in R, we get this equation: 📌 y = 2.046e-10x - 1.492e+02 Where X = current money supply and Y = expected S&P 500 valuation. Plugging in today’s money supply gives us an expected S&P value of 4,262.571. Accounting for error range (σ = 294.8): Upper Bound: 4,557.371 Lower Bound: 3,967.771 I’ve incorporated this equation into PineScript to show you here: Will the S&P Correct to the Money Supply? Not necessarily. Money supply is dynamic, and as it increases, so will the expected S&P valuation. This relationship will persist until equilibrium is restored. We can see this in historical data: The Verdict This is a much-needed correction—or bear market, call it what you want. The S&P’s growth rate was unsustainable, especially in relation to: The US Money Supply Speculative AI-driven hype Economic & geopolitical instability Whether the S&P falls all the way to equilibrium or they meet somewhere in the middle remains to be seen. But one way or another—equilibrium will be restored. This post is already long enough, so I’ll leave it at that! Thanks for reading, and as always—safe trades! 🚀
SP:SPXShort
by Steversteves
17
SPX Volume profile support and gap through. Must know toolI have taken a volume profile across the rally to project Low value nodes and high value nodes to find support levels during the decline. I simply cannot emphasis enough how valuable this tool is if learn to use correctly. I use this conjunction with geometry (hidden here) Most us know prices will come to fill the price gaps in the future, but LVN and HVN can provide information that price and volume cannot provide on their own. Eg a large bar could have a heavy volume, but you wouldn't know at what price the volume was, whether it was at the opening or closing, unless you look at the VP. Inspite of a huge volume there could be a price gap hidden in the bar
SP:SPXShort
by krisoz