Risk environment to remain positive? S&P continuation?Despite all the recent tariff concerns, inflation concerns and Middle East worries. The S&P continues to push all tine highs. And 'risk surprises' not withstanding, is likely to do so. Backed up by a solid start to ratings season, especially from Netflix.
In the currency space, that should mean the JPY remains weak. And I'm cutoutting recent JPY strength due to profit taking ahead of weekend elections. But moving into the new week, i'll be looking for JPY short opportunities.
SP500 trade ideas
Market Mood Sours as Inflation Surprises AgainU.S. stock markets were under pressure on Tuesday after new inflation data came in higher than expected. This has made investors rethink how soon the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates.
What Happened?
● The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded its biggest monthly rise in 5 months.
● Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) jumped by 2.9% compared to last year — more than the Fed's 2% target.
What It Means
● Investors had expected the Fed to cut interest rates multiple times in 2025.
● After the inflation report, they now think the Fed will cut less than expected.
● The chances of a rate cut in September also dropped sharply.
Market Impact
● Bond yields went up — the 10-year U.S. government bond yield rose to 4.49%, making borrowing more expensive.
● Stock futures fell (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq), as higher yields tend to hurt company profits and stock prices.
S&P 500 and Dow Struggle at Resistance
● Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones faced resistance near all-time highs.
● This rejection suggests potential for further short-term pullback, especially if macro pressures like inflation and rate uncertainty persist.
Near-Term Outlook
With inflation running hotter than expected, hopes for early Fed rate cuts have cooled. Traders and investors should remain cautious, manage risk actively, and prepare for continued volatility in the coming weeks.
S&P 500 H4 | Approaching a multi-swing-low supportThe S&P 500 (SPX500) is falling towards multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,220.89 which is multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 6,170.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support.
Take profit is at 6,299.72 which is a swing-high resistance.
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S&P 500 and the Elliott Wave TheoryThis is a continuation of a Weekly chart that I had previously posted. Our Wave 2(Red) was a Zigzag and the expectation is a Flat for Wave 4(Red) which we see occurred. Since Wave 4(Red) completed, a Wave 5(Red) was triggered. We can expect our Wave 5 to express itself in 5 Waves just like any other Wave. We can observe that our Wave 2(Green) was a Flat and we can expect our Wave 4(Green) to be a Zigzag. Wave 3(Green) was a strong upward move and a confirmation at its current price would trigger a Zigzag correction. This would be our Wave 4(Green) and would set the stage for the last wave before a major correction.
S&P500 Accumulation almost over. New rally begins.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up pattern, within which, it's been replicating almost the same structure. This involves an aggressive Bullish Leg Phase (dotted Channel Up), followed by a correction/ Accumulation Phase (blue Channels), which eventually leads to the new Bullish Leg.
The 1D RSI fractals among those patterns are similar and right now it seems that we are about to complete the latest Accumulation Phase. Having completed a 1D Golden Cross 2 weeks ago, the time-frame looks more bullish than ever and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, we expect at least a +5.68% rise (the minimum of the previous Bullish Legs), targeting 6550.
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S&P500 Bullish breakout supported at 6207Trump’s $3.4 Trillion Tax Plan
Favors wealthy investors: Tax burden shifts based on how you earn, not how much.
Winners: Business owners, investors, high-income earners.
Losers: Immigrants, elite universities.
Trade Tensions
EU Tariffs: Brussels targets $72B in US goods (e.g., Boeing, cars, bourbon) in response to Trump’s tariff threats.
Impact: Risk to transatlantic trade; US open to talks.
US-China Tech Relations
Nvidia: Resumes H20 AI chip sales to China after US approval—boosted chip stocks.
Trump: To announce $70B in AI & energy investments today in Pennsylvania.
Trend: Signs of easing tensions between US and China.
Earnings Focus: Big US Banks
Q2 results (JPM, Citi, WFC, BNY Mellon, BlackRock) will highlight:
Net interest income: How rate levels affect profits
Loan growth & credit quality: Signs of lending strength or weakness
Capital markets activity: Trading & investment banking trends
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6335
Resistance Level 2: 6380
Resistance Level 3: 6420
Support Level 1: 6207
Support Level 2: 6160
Support Level 3: 6115
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S&P 500 consolidating at all-time highsOf late, we have seen price action on the S&P 500 consolidate around all-time highs of 6,290 and is on track to form a small ascending triangle. The nearest support to note resides at the 1W level of 6,121, closely shadowed by a 1M support from 6,040.
Based on the current technical picture, this clearly remains a buyers’ market.
- FP Markets Research Team
SPX500 Update: Monster Trigger Ready to Launch!Welcome back, traders, it’s Skeptic from Skeptic Lab! 😎 With news of the unemployment rate rising, stock and crypto markets have been surging hard, and right now, we’ve got a killer trigger on SPX500 you don’t want to miss. Its breakout could spark the next major bullish leg. Let’s dive into the Daily and 4-hour timeframes to unpack this setup. here’s the play:
✔️ Daily Timeframe:
After a strong rally, SPX500 hit an all-time high (ATH) at 5,249.14 before entering a deep correction. Here’s what many traders miss: support/resistance levels aren’t static—they shift over time. The resistance that was at 6,146.89 has now climbed to 6,290. Breaking 6,290 signals the start of a major bullish trend after 146 days of correction. This is our primary long trigger.
📊 4-Hour Timeframe (Futures Triggers):
Long Trigger: After a solid uptrend with strong momentum, we entered a time-based correction within a box pattern. Breaking the box ceiling at 6,290 is the long trigger, aligning with the Daily breakout.
Short Trigger: Breaking the box floor would trigger a short, but this goes against the trend, so stop-loss risk is higher, and your win rate could take a hit—stay cautious.
📉 Key Insight: The 6,290 breakout is the big move to watch, fueled by market momentum from the unemployment news. Shorts are riskier due to the bullish trend, so prioritize longs with volume confirmation.
🔔 Confirmation: For longs, confirm the 6,290 break with RSI entering overbought.Risk management is critical—cap risk at 1%–2% per trade to survive the market’s swings.
🔼 I’ll update if the structure shifts! Thanks for vibing with this analysis! <3
💬 Let’s Talk!
Which SPX500 trigger are you locked on? Hit the comments, and let’s crush it together! 😊 If this update lit your fire, smash that boost—it fuels my mission! ✌️
Equity Markets Ahead of the US Inflation ReportEquity Markets Ahead of the US Inflation Report
Today at 15:30 GMT+3, the US inflation report (Consumer Price Index, or CPI) is scheduled for release. According to ForexFactory, analysts expect the inflation rate to rise from 2.4% to 2.6%.
The actual figures will provide market participants with grounds to debate not only the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, but also the evolving tensions between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell.
Should the report deliver any surprises, it will almost certainly trigger heightened volatility across the equity markets. For now, however, investors are seemingly optimistic about the upcoming fundamental data — especially given the commencement of Q2 earnings season, which lends additional weight to today’s macroeconomic indicators.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
The S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the index fluctuating within a range defined by support at 6,222 and resistance at 6,290.
The upward impulses (as indicated by arrows) suggest that:
→ current market optimism, combined with the CPI release, may lead to a bullish breakout above resistance and the establishment of a new all-time high;
→ in a broader context, such a breakout could be interpreted as a continuation of the rally that began in April, following a period of consolidation between the aforementioned levels.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 Outlook – CPI Data in Focus, Key Pivot at 6282SPX500 – Market Outlook
U.S. futures are climbing as Nvidia plans to resume chip sales to China, fueling positive momentum across tech and growth sectors.
However, investor caution remains ahead of key events:
Major banks ( NYSE:JPM , NYSE:WFC Wells Fargo, NYSE:C Citigroup) will report earnings, offering insights into the financial sector.
All eyes are on the June CPI report, expected at 2.6%. A higher reading could reinforce bearish pressure, while a softer print would support continued bullish momentum.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 has bounced from the demand zone and is now trading above the pivot at 6282, which keeps the bullish trend in play.
As long as the price holds above this level, we expect continuation toward 6341, and if broken, extended upside toward 6394.
To shift bearish, price must break and close below 6223, which would open the path toward 6142.
Pivot: 6282
Resistance: 6341 – 6394
Support: 6225 – 6191 – 6142
Event Watch : CPI data release today – anything above 2.6% may trigger downside; below 2.6% could support further upside.
Previous idea:
Major LowI'm buying puts expiring on October 31st, All Hallow's Eve.
I'll give price room to keep melting up to 666 at the farthest, that is my stop level. If we breach that price, then just know that tech is unstoppable and Artificial Intelligence is the Mark of the Beast.
If the market doesn't drop here, then the sky is the limit.
US500 evening analysisMy primary count of bullish price action since 7 April 2025 low sees regular flat (regular flat A, zigzag B, impulse C), impulse C with ending diagonal 5 of (5).
Median line (red line) of pitchfork was never tagged, implies price action eventually returning to origin (5098.6).
Ending diagonal invalid above 6307.2, bears with high reward, low risk opportunity.
SPX 6300 Highs to 6200 Lows - Watch Key LevelsThis week earnings season kicks off
-Notables include JPM, GS, BAC, WFC, NFLX, KMI, PEP and others
US Inflation (CPI and PPI) this week
-forecasts are showing HIGHER inflation
-consumers care, but markets may not
6300-6350 key resistance area for SPX
6200 key support area for SPX
If we break the 6200 floor, there's room to fall to 6000-5700 to find stronger support
I discuss the 50 day moving averarages on the S&P and Nasdaq as levels to watch
For the remainder of the month...
7/18 July Monthly Expiration
7/30 US FOMC (with Press Conference)
8/1 US Non-Farm
8/1 US Tariff Deadline (per Trump)
Markets will have to really love a slew of good earnings and good news to see more highs and melt-ups through this typically bumpy season (Aug-Sep)
Thanks for watching!!!