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SP500 trade ideas

S&P 500 resistance levels#SPX Upon observing the 6-month cash data of the S&P index, it becomes clear that this index has reached significant resistance levels. However, it is still too early to proclaim the beginning of a major correction in this index. That said, it can be anticipated that a potential price correction might extend to the range of 4800 to 4500. When comparing the wave count of this index with the Warren Buffett Indicator, both reveal a common message: the S&P is currently situated in sensitive zones. There are two critical price ranges for this index that could lead to significant price reversals: the first range is between 6085 and 6240, and the second range is between 7900 and 8000.
SP:SPXShort
by NEoWave-Chart
Warning: what can save us from a collapse: must read.⚠️This analysis isn’t purely chart-based, but in this macro environment, understanding the bigger picture is essential for predicting market movements. Hopefully, TradingView will allow this idea so that everyone can read it. What Can Save Us? Before looking for a solution, we must first acknowledge the problem—and then determine if and when a resolution is coming. 1. Trump’s Tariffs & Policies: A Market Shock Trump’s economic strategy marks a radical departure from the policies of the past 30 years. However, previous administrations weakened U.S. global influence, shifting power in favor of China. Since Trump's motto is "Make America Great Again", serious changes are inevitable. Until investors fully grasp these policies, uncertainty will persist. Let’s break down the key areas of impact and Trump’s expected responses: 2.Monetary Policy & The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve (FED) and Jerome Powell are not aligned with the White House. Powell is sticking to his monetary policy approach, but Trump needs 0% interest rates to implement his vision. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is fueling volatility. 🔴 Trump's Response: Expect a bombshell move—Trump will fire Jerome Powell and replace him with a Fed chairman who supports rate cuts to 0%. This will cause short-term chaos but ultimately fuel a massive market rally as: ✔️ The housing market recovers ✔️ Liquidity surges ✔️ Stocks skyrocket 3.U.S. Dependence on China & Russia for Raw Materials The U.S. imports essential resources from China and Russia, making it vulnerable. The BRICS alliance is strengthening, further threatening U.S. dominance. 🔴 Trump's Response: Trump has openly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its rich natural resources. He will take it by military force if necessary, positioning the U.S. as a raw material powerhouse on par with Russia. 4.Lost Allies: Canada, Mexico & South America Canada is aligning with Europe Mexico & South America are leaning towards BRICS 🔴 Trump's Response: To counter this: Canada will be pressured into rejoining a U.S.-led trade bloc—or face potential annexation. South American economies will be crippled by tariffs, forcing them to reintegrate under U.S. influence. 5.Geopolitical Conflicts: Middle East & Ukraine Iran is aligned with Russia & China Ukraine relies on Europe (France, UK, EU), rather than the U.S. The U.S. is not benefiting from these wars 🔴 Trump's Response: If Zelensky continues to align with Europe, Trump may order a full-scale U.S. bombing of Ukraine, flatten Kyiv, eliminate Zelensky live on TikTok, and then split Ukraine with Russia. This move would: ✔️ Strengthen U.S.-Russia relations ✔️ Secure a deal on Greenland ✔️ Humble Europe 6.Conclusion: A Global Power Shift Expect a period of chaos and fear. However, what investors must understand is that Trump is 100% serious about these moves—and he will execute them regardless of global opinion. If Trump’s strategy works: ✅ The U.S. will regain dominance ✅ Markets will rally hard ✅ Confidence in the U.S. economy will be restored If Trump fails: 🚨 A prolonged economic downturn (15-20 years of stagflation) 🚨 U.S. & Europe suffer major losses 🚨 Best move? Relocate to Asia or the Middle East before the crash. So, even if Trump’s policies seem insane, the best-case scenario is that he succeeds. 💡 DYOR (Do Your Own Research) #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trump #MAGA #Geopolitics #StockMarket #SPX500 #Trading #Investing #Economy #FederalReserve #RateCuts
FX:SPX500
by CryptoNikkoid
6
S&P500 - What's next - Tariffs , Interest Rate decision? As of March 18, 2025, the S&P 500 index has experienced significant volatility, influenced by President Donald Trump's recent tariff policies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Scenario 1: Upside Potential Towards All-Time Highs The S&P 500 has recently shown signs of recovery, with a 0.6% rise on Monday following a 2.1% surge on Friday, marking its best performance since Trump's re-election. This rebound suggests that, despite earlier corrections, investor sentiment may be improving. ​ If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain current interest rates in its upcoming meeting, it could signal confidence in the economy's resilience amid trade tensions. Such a stance might encourage further investment in equities, potentially propelling the S&P 500 towards its all-time highs. Additionally, some analysts believe that the market's recent correction is a healthy adjustment, and with improved earnings revisions and seasonal strength, a continued rally is plausible. ​ Scenario 2: Downside Risk Towards the 5,000 Support Level Conversely, the aggressive tariff policies introduced by President Trump have raised concerns about inflationary pressures and potential slowdowns in economic growth. UBS analysts project that if the U.S. implements a 60% import tax on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on other imports, the S&P 500 could end next year at 5,200, an 11% decline from its recent record close. ​ Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimates that the current tariff plans could lead to a 5% drop in the S&P 500 in the coming months, as increased costs may squeeze corporate profit margins. If the Federal Reserve responds to these inflationary concerns by maintaining or even raising interest rates, borrowing costs could rise, potentially dampening consumer spending and business investment. Such developments might exert downward pressure on the S&P 500, bringing it closer to the 5,000 support level.​ Summa Money Our conclusion. The S&P 500's trajectory in the near term is intricately linked to the outcomes of trade policies and monetary decisions. While the market has demonstrated resilience, the dual forces of tariff-induced economic adjustments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance will play pivotal roles in determining whether the index ascends towards new highs or retreats to key support levels. In these volatile times, it is definitely a tough time to predict how the market would move , so this is why we are looking into the different options as how things would pan-out in the upcoming months in regards to the S&P500! Positive outcome - Enter here with a target just below the ATH at 6,000 points, with your stop loss being above the bottom at 5,125 points Negative outcome - Entere here with a target around the bottom at 5,000 , with a stop loss around the resistnace 5,750 I am interested to hear out your thoughs on this analysis and overall the idea behind whats happening with the U.S. economy and what would be the reaction for the S&P500!
SP:SPX
by DG55Capital
S&P 500 to tank to 5,100 pointsPEPPERSTONE:US500 The S&P 500 broke below critical support after Trump announce massive tariffs on everyone, worst than expected. Volume is increasing to the downside, and it looks like the next wave down has already started. Wave C is supposed to be equal or larger than wave A, and reach the next critical support, which will lead us to 5,100 points in the next couple of weeks. I heard that net tariffs on China are 54%, does than means that iPhones are going to rise in price 54%? Maybe it will be reconsidered later, and the market will bounce in the future, but not likely in the short term. Good luck to you
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Raul_Dominguez
Capitulation Might be Close, but A Big Low Could Be Also.I've explained for a while my idea if 5500 isn't support for SPX then we see a capitulation period to the 5100 sort of area. I think the case for this is picking up increasing merit. For a while I've not really been sure what to expect if that happened. My natural tendency to fade moves would make me naturally bullish but some different outcomes I considered would have that move being an important break and us only consolidating before heading lower. With the way all of this is shaping up, I think if I see a capitulation period now I have a strong bull bias. I do think we might be setting up a much larger decline overall but a sharp drop here would usually give some sort of bull trap. There are different ranges of bull traps. Shallow, mid and deep and spike out. Modern day markets run perpetually on hard-mode so it's reasonable to expect the most tricky one. Big bull bias for the immediate term if we put in a capitulation swing. I built up a position into the rally today. Which was not a lot of fun during sections of the day and harrowing for a moment late in the day but has me positioned well into the rally. I'm looking for a move down to under 5200 and close to 5100. My target would be 5150 or so at biggest with aggressive locking in near 5200. If this move hits (especially if it hits with bad news), will be super bullish for the near term - but I would consider this an important bear break if it comes.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
3
No Bottom in the S&P 500 Yet!Unsurprisingly, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX Index) – one of the most popular measures of US stock market volatility – recently shook hands with 30.00, levels not seen since August 2024. As a result, I am closely monitoring the daily charts of the VIX (with standard Bollinger Bands overlaid) and the S&P 500. As shown on the charts, the VIX closed above the upper Bollinger Band, signalling that sentiment could be overstretched and may revert to the mean. Consequently, as on many occasions in the past, this suggests that S&P 500 bulls may attempt to step in. However, chart studies reveal support is not evident until 5,190, which happens to be joined by a 100% projection ratio at 5,152 (an equal AB=CD support pattern). Interestingly, this indicates that further underperformance and higher VIX levels could be on the table before we see signs of a reversal. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
SP:SPXShort
by FPMarkets
COMPLEX WAVE STRUCTURE FORMING WITHIN WAVE B or 2 HIGH RISKThe chart posted is the updated sp 500 pattern that is forming .I have thought we would see a simple wave structure form as the spiral cycles topped 2/19 and bottom3/13 in perfect timing since the two bottom I have gone long twice and shorted twice at both tops . I now am forced the go to cash and wait for the wave structure to form the next wave The issue is the HIGH VIX and the formation on 15 min and 5 min charts . So being in cash is the best .Best of trades WAVETIMER ! we must hold 5444 /5388 for wave B 1.272 and 1.382 of wave A
TVC:SPX
by wavetimer
1
Bitcoin Breaks Free from the S&P 500: The Start of a New EraWe may be witnessing a historic moment in the evolution of Bitcoin. On April 3rd, 2025 at 15:00 UTC, Bitcoin officially broke its correlation with the S&P 500 a connection that had persisted for years. Since that moment, the divergence has become clear: • The S&P 500 has continued its sharp decline, now down over 7%, amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions. • Meanwhile, Bitcoin has held strong, even climbing up to 4%, and has now entered a period of sideways consolidation rather than following the broader market into panic. As of April 4th, 2025 at 20:00 UTC, this trend is holding and it might just signal the start of a new era for digital assets. 📉 A Shift in Market Psychology Historically, BTC has mirrored traditional markets, especially during moments of fear. But this time is different. Bitcoin is resisting the gravitational pull of global financial weakness. This could mean that investors are starting to see Bitcoin not as a high-risk tech bet, but as a legitimate hedge against global instability a digital store of value. 🔍 Why It Makes Sense • 🌐 Borderless: Bitcoin is not tied to any single economy or government. • 🏛️ Decentralized: No central authority can manipulate its supply. • 💎 Scarce and predictable: With a fixed max supply of 21 million, Bitcoin offers transparency and reliability. In a world of rising protectionism and financial tension, Bitcoin offers what traditional systems can’t: a neutral, incorruptible asset available to anyone, anywhere. 🔮 What’s Next? If the decoupling continues, we could see: • 📈 Capital shifting into Bitcoin for protection, not just speculation. • 🚀 A new wave of adoption, as institutions and individuals look for safe havens. • 🔁 Altcoin markets gaining momentum, once confidence trickles down from Bitcoin's stability. 🧠 Final Thoughts This moment could be a turning point. While traditional markets falter, Bitcoin holds firm. While governments talk tariffs and trade wars, Bitcoin offers freedom. If this trend continues, it may redefine the role of Bitcoin in the global economy — not just as a volatile asset, but as a truly global store of value and pillar of financial independence.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EmmanuelCova
Bearish reversal?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support. Pivot: 5,684.31 1st Support: 5,508.29 1st Resistance: 5,768.80 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by ICmarkets
Bullish Divergence and the Impact of Trump’s TariffsOn the daily chart of the S&P 500, I’m currently spotting a clear bullish divergence. This type of divergence is a technical pattern that suggests that, despite recent price drops, the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential upward move could be on the horizon. It shows that the index has underlying strength, which the price hasn’t fully reflected yet — making a bullish reversal very likely in the short to mid-term. In this context, the recent drop in the S&P 500 has been largely driven by Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, especially targeting China and other countries. However, based on my analysis, I believe that these tariffs were more of a negotiation tactic than a long-term economic strategy. And now that things are clearly not going as expected, I’m convinced that Trump will be forced to scale back the tariffs or start accepting less favorable trade agreements just to stop the bleeding — because I highly doubt he will allow this sharp market decline to continue unchecked. Why tariffs aren’t coherent or beneficial for the global economy Tariffs are additional taxes on imports. Although they’re often marketed as a way to protect local industries, in reality, they increase prices for consumers and destabilize global supply chains. The result is damaging for both the countries imposing the tariffs and those receiving them. In the case of the U.S., despite Trump’s promises, these tariffs are actually hurting American companies that rely on imported materials and products, leading to higher internal costs and squeezing consumers. Worse yet, this ongoing trade war has created a climate of global economic uncertainty, which is driving down investment and confidence. That uncertainty has translated into market selloffs around the world, and the S&P 500’s current decline is a direct reflection of that. Importantly, it’s U.S. businesses — not foreign governments — who are absorbing the cost of these tariffs. What to expect going forward Despite the pressure from tariffs, I believe that Trump — seeing the damage already being done to the markets — will have no choice but to start dialing things back. My take is that to avoid a deeper economic hit and restore investor confidence, the U.S. will likely pursue more balanced deals, even if it means compromising a bit. If this scenario plays out, I expect the S&P 500 to begin recovering, especially as investor uncertainty fades. The bullish divergence on the chart further reinforces the idea that once these external political and economic pressures ease, the market could see a strong and sharp rebound. Conclusion Trump’s tariffs were intended as leverage — but they’re clearly backfiring and doing more harm than good. The current S&P 500 correction, in my opinion, is actually a buying opportunity for those with a long-term view. With potential tariff reductions and fairer trade deals on the horizon, the market is likely to rebound strongly, especially with the bullish divergence we’re seeing on the charts. Markets may have already priced in the worst, and now we’re seeing the first technical signals of a potential turnaround. If confirmed, the price could begin to rally significantly in the coming days or weeks.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EmmanuelCova
1
S&P 500 Down 3% – Divergence AppearsThe S&P 500 (SPX) continues to show a strong bearish bias and is approaching the 5,300-point level in the short term. Selling pressure remains steady as post-“Liberation Day” uncertainty persists, with markets concerned that the recently announced tariffs could significantly impact the U.S. economic outlook. As a result, this could severely limit the performance of equity indices like the S&P 500. Bearish Channel Since February 20, the SPX index has maintained consistent downward momentum, establishing a new bearish channel in the short term. The index has now broken below the key 5,400-point support level. However, the speed of the recent declines may have created an imbalance in market forces, which could pave the way for a bullish correction in upcoming sessions. Divergence in Indicators MACD: Both the MACD line and the signal line have shown higher lows in recent trading sessions, which contrasts with the lower lows in the SPX price, indicating a bullish divergence. RSI: The RSI is showing a similar pattern, with the line forming higher lows while price continues to make lower lows. Additionally, the RSI is now approaching the 30 level, which is typically considered the oversold zone. These divergence and oversold signals suggest that bearish momentum has accelerated sharply, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion. As the balance between buyers and sellers begins to stabilize, this may be an early indication that upward corrections could occur in the next few sessions. Key Levels: 5,780 points – Distant resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. A return to this zone could mark the start of a new bullish phase, posing a threat to the current bearish channel. 5,530 points – Near resistance: This area corresponds to neutral levels seen in recent weeks. It may become a target zone for potential corrective upward moves. 5,388 points – Key support zone: This level matches the lowest prices since September 2024 and is where the price is currently consolidating. If the index breaks decisively below this level, it could lead to a more extended bearish channel in the short term. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
1
US500: Trend Shift - Potential Break of Key Support LevelsThis analysis focuses on the US500 chart, a representation of the S&P 500 index, a key indicator of the US stock market's performance. The chart displays price action over a 4-hour timeframe, offering a medium-term perspective. The analysis aims to identify potential support levels and assess the likelihood of further bearish movement. 2. Key Findings and Supporting Evidence: Bearish Trend: The chart clearly shows a prevailing downtrend. The price has been making lower highs and lower lows, signifying strong selling pressure. Breakdown of Rising Wedge: A rising wedge pattern, often considered a bearish reversal pattern, is visible between March 11th and March 27th. The subsequent breakdown from this wedge has confirmed the bearish sentiment and suggests a continuation of the downtrend. Potential Support Levels: The chart highlights three potential support levels: 5500 (Current Level): The price is currently hovering around this level. A break below this level could trigger further selling. 5504.2 (First Target): This level is marked as the first potential target for the bearish move. 5441.3 (Second Target): This level represents a more significant support and a deeper potential target. Trading Strategy Indication: The chart suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, with entry around the current level (5500) and targets at the identified support levels. The stop-loss is placed above the recent high to manage risk. High Volatility: The sharp price swings and the length of the red (bearish) candles indicate high volatility, suggesting strong momentum behind the downtrend. 3. Relevant Data and Statistics (Inferred): Timeframe: 4-hour chart. Index: US500 (S&P 500 equivalent). Recent High: Approximately 5800. Recent Low: Approximately 5486.7. Potential Support Levels: 5500, 5504.2, 5441.3. 4. Discussion of Implications and Potential Future Trends: Market Sentiment: The breakdown from the rising wedge and the continued bearish momentum suggest a shift in market sentiment towards increased pessimism. Economic Factors: The downtrend could be influenced by various economic factors, such as rising interest rates, inflation concerns, or geopolitical uncertainties. Risk Management: Traders should exercise caution and implement proper risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders, due to the high volatility. Potential for Rebound: While the current trend is bearish, it's essential to acknowledge the possibility of a rebound or consolidation at the support levels.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by ultreosforex
1
SPX500 Analysis – Has the Bottom Formed or Is More Downside?Hello traders, Taking a closer look at the SPX500 and discussing whether the market has found a bottom or if there’s further downside ahead. From a technical perspective, price action is still showing signs of weakness, with critical support levels yet to be tested. Key Technical Points: • Bearish Expansion: A key swing high formed before price broke structure with a volatile bearish move, ending a year-long bullish pattern. • Confluence Support at 4779: This level aligns with the value area high, 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and a high timeframe support zone. • Next Target if Support Fails: If 4779 is lost, the point of control (POC) becomes the next downside target. The recent bearish expansion suggests a shift in market sentiment. Although the 4779 region could offer a technical bounce, it is crucial to wait for confirmation. A strong reaction from this level may provide short-term relief, but without follow-through, it could be short-lived. If this support zone breaks, we may see an accelerated move towards the POC, which would confirm a deeper correction. This would likely spill over into other global markets, potentially triggering a broader risk-off environment. Given the current high volatility, it’s essential to let the market find equilibrium before making any major trading decisions. Patience and precision are key—wait for the next move to be backed by volume and structure before stepping in.
SKILLING:SPX500Short
by AzizKhanZamani
S&P500 target 4550The markets are spooked by the recent Trump Administration Tariff's. Such political mayhem harks back to the Smoot Hawley Tariffs of 1930 , when Protectionism plummeted the world into chaos. Fear and Panic has gripped investors. The last week has seen a rapid decline of this index, with the market falling over 5% in the recent trading session. To date the market is down 17.5 percent from the high of 6147. It is likely we will pass into Bear Market territory in the coming week. From a technical perspective , last week was the largest bear candle in the last 5 years and the RSI has moved into the oversold zone. If we look to the last Bear Market of 2022, the 200 Week MAV acted as support. This may be an area again, where the market forms a low. This would coincide with a 70.5 percentile Fibonacci retracement. So 4550 is the updated target for the current move down.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by Umlingo