SPIUSD trade ideas
SPX - Melt up & Crash series [3]Blue parallel channel held perfectly while many were bearish!
Now has a date with the top rail, maybe at 2.618 intersection who knows...
Expanding megaphone (green) had false breakdown, if it breaks back in and upwards = huge bullish move.
So much room on the RSI to run with huge positive divergence.
Not financial advice.
Amazes me how long these patterns take to form, for them to be concrete and actionable. Hopefully this series is the last one I post. Realistically just waiting for this low to be set. Think this could be it.
SPX500 – Strong Rebound Before Final Correction!We anticipate a strong rebound to form an X wave, followed by a deeper correction before reaching a final bottom between 23rd April – 8th May 2025.
Key levels and timing align with our broader market analysis—stay prepared! 📉📈
Aggressive 0 DTE PUT spreadPlaying the bounce / recovery on a big drop for SPX today, short term 0 DTE.
-5400 +5395 15% gain in premium
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,405.74
1st Support: 5,176.07
1st Resistance: 5,769.85
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SPX to find sellers at previous resistance?SPX500USD - 24h expiry
Daily signals are bearish.
Short term bias has turned negative.
Previous resistance located at 5700.
20 1day EMA is at 5699.8.
5705.4 has been pivotal.
We look to Sell at 5699.5 (stop at 5743.5)
Our profit targets will be 5585.5 and 5565.5
Resistance: 5630.0 / 5658.9 / 5700.0
Support: 5602.4 / 5564.3 / 5495.3
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S&P500 Last time it made that bottom was 18 months ago.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a multi year Channel Up that goes back to October 2022.
The index almost hit the Channel bottom this week and immediately we see a rebound attempt.
It may be under the 1week MA50 but this is not disastrous as the patterns last bottom was formed exactly under it on October 23rd 2023, 18 months ago.
On top of that, the 1week RSI was exactly where it is now, on the 40.00 Support, bearish enough to call for a long term buy.
In addition, the both bearish waved leading to both bottoms were almost -11%. This high symmetry potential suggests that the bullish wave that will follow may be of a similar +28.34% rise.
This is a unique opportunity to buy and target 7000.
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I spy an Evening Star Doji on SPXso alot is going on. when we gapped up and ran nonstop 3/25-3/26, i decided to look for reversal signals. tues was a tight range. it formed a doji; which was suspect. the move below the open print today was the second. and now i see we are up on a tweet and a prayer. this 3 candlestick pattern confirms that. however... the higher timeframes are in a wide range. so, if we reverse the bearish candlestick >5720 i believe we can retrace a bit... maybe revisit the sell fell off area.
***to invalidate the sell trigger, we need to bet above the doji.
***if we do keep rocking and rolling... note this area. it is an unfilled gap as of now. if it gaps down, wait to see how 1st 15-30mins react. looks like ES-emini gapped down a bit. that may be it, but this is an A+ set up for a trip back to take out short term lows at least. tootles!
For more on the pattern... I love the breakdown/visual provided here:
alchemymarkets.com
SPX update - retesting 6000 before 6340In my updated view we can see a retest o 5995-6000 area before dump to 3340 where last bullish leg will start to new ATH @6444
5600 Really needs to hold...If this 5600 level breaks, I expect the decline to continue until may with support around 5400, 5200, and 5000 with 5200 being most likely.
The market was hoping for consistent messaging from the Fed, which it did not get. The data shows that inflation is accelerating in the face of job cuts which makes their job very difficult. The are not helping with their rhetoric that the data is 'transitory'. The market is not enjoying their 'vibe' driven analysis.
Volatility is bid for April and May, giving bears ammo for another leg lower.
vixcentral.com
The measured move and several demand zones sit around 5200.
SPX next 5 years outlookIn this chart I show my SPX long term view from covid recovery to about 2030.
SPX is moving in a big rising wedge, I think that on the long term prospective we're still in the 3rd bullish wave targeting 6440 area. From there I see a retracement (4th wave) to 4800 area before last bullish 5th wave to 7400 area.
From 7440 I see a sharp bearish retracement , the breaking of rising wedge will lead spx to target 4200 area.
On the medium term I think that we've to test 3320 area before targeting 6440 (completion of 3rd wave), but on the short term I see a retracement to retest 6000 area before dump to 3320.
Short SPX500Technical and fundamentals with short term sentiment open a tactical short position from here.
Stocks jittery as markets await tariffs Volatility was again the name of the game in equity markets as investors braced for President Donald Trump’s impending tariff announcement, which promises to reshape global trade dynamics. With uncertainty swirling around the scope and impact of his so-called reciprocal tariffs, there remains little consensus on how markets will react as the final deliberations unfold.
A few headlines that have come out:
Trump administration official has confirmed that Amazon has put in a bid to buy TikTok
Tesla Inc. jumped 5% on hopes Elon Musk will refocus on the carmaker as a news report suggested his time as a top adviser to Trump may end soon.
US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% -- Sky News
The bands will differ by both country and industry depending on how the White House views barriers to trade.
CNBC: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING REVOCATION OF TARIFF EXEMPTIONS FOR CHEAP SHIPMENTS FROM CHINA - SOURCE
Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight - Reuters
The key resistance area to watch today is between 5670 to 5695 - as shaded in yellow on the chart. This zone was previously support and has now turned into a bit of resistance, capping today's gains. Will the selling pressure resume from here or do we go back above it?
It all depends on severity of tariffs.
In the event we go lower, then the area between 5500 to 5550 is the key support zone to watch.
In the event the market go higher, and break through 5670 to 5695 zone, then the 200-day average and prior resistance near 5770-5787 will come into focus next.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SPX retesting 5900 before dumping to 5200 areaIN my view SPX could retest 5900-5910 area before new bearish leg to 5230 area where last bullish wave will start to final tp 6444
Liberation morningMarkets did sell off last night and the VIX did start breaking up, so I believe another leg down is upon us. However, the chance for a C wave rally from the lows is possible, so caution is necessary.
BUY AND HOLD UNTIL OCTOBER 2025Price is scheduled to break above the current high for a 7-month run, price top is expected between 6588 and 6680 range for a steep correction. Tariffs and recession chants will have their day but history shows post war cycles never go south.
Trade safe, good luck
#SPX - 2 Apr#SPX pulled back nicely to PZ yesterday before rallying 70 points, going back to resistance zone.
Overall, price action looks toppish. Could see a move down to 5525/55 but will be looking for a turn at that level for a long. If level does not hold, next strong support below is at 5400.
Today is Tariff day. Trade safe.
Most Depressing Chart EverThis chart is what I would consider the worse case scenario. Sideways action until we hit the Great Depression trend line. The two previous lost years are a little over 16 years long from start to break out. This shows an example of we were to complete that same pattern. We are long overdue for a correction and this would bring us back to reality.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 1 April 2025
- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5700.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area located between the support level 5500.00 (low of the previous wave (A)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from August.
The downward reversal from this support area stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 1 of the downward impulse sequence (C) from the end of March.
Given the improving sentiment across the equity markets and the strength of the support level 5500.00, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5700.00.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index gapped higher, passing our completed Inner Index Rally of 5712 and setting a Mean Resistance of 5768. This target was accompanied by considerable reversal, ultimately causing a downward movement. On the final trading day of the week, the Index underwent a pronounced decline, resulting in a substantial drop that surpassed the critical target of Mean Support set at 5603. The Index is positioned to retest the completed Outer Index Dip level of 5520. An extended decline is feasible, with the possibility of targeting the subsequent Outer Index Dip at 5403 before resuming an upward rally from either of these Outer Index Dip levels.
