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US 500 (SPI) / US DollarUS 500 (SPI) / US DollarUS 500 (SPI) / US Dollar

US 500 (SPI) / US Dollar

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SPIUSD trade ideas

US500 We will conduct a top Down analysis for the US500. The US500 us currently In a large Bull run, it is forming a Series of Higher highs and higher lows on the Weekly Time frame. We are currently at the 100 Fib extensions Level taken from the 2020 Covid Low. Both Capital Inflows and Volume remain positive but at the highs right now seem to be decreasing but remains positive. Market has made a HH and is now testing the Market structure line that has been strong this entire bull run. Moving below to the Daily we can see clear weakness in the markets with multiple tests of the 50SMA and 10SMA now below the 50SMA. Whether this region holds is yet to be seen. We have a clear break of market structure from the bullish Wave that started on 6th of September with a retest of that took place on the 26th of December with a failure to break back above. Currently on the Daily TF, the markets are losing money with CMF below zero indicating distribution and OBV decreasing aswell. The break of market structure of this bullish Wave allows us to Identify retracement Zones where we can see 0.5 ot 0.618 level being of Importance. If we come down to the 4H we can see that currently the zone is range bound with ranging price action with the bottom of the range around the 5870 level, albeit with a succession of LH that have formed. The price in this Range has broken the 200SMA multiple times indicating market weakness in the intermediate Term. WIth price below the 20SMA we also see weakness. We have Resistance Trend Line that is forming with the LH on the 4H. On the 1H we remain firmly Bearish with immediate price action. This market seems like it has reached a top on the Weekly and needs resetting and the 4H and Daily price action confirm this with a break of the Large trend line. We are testing the Weekly Trend line that has been established For over 2 years. We are reactive and not predictive so we will wait to see what the market does, on breaks of the Range Zone the market will cool off on the Daily bullish Wave, but if this Daily bullish Cooldown breaks the Weekly Market structure we may be in for a large bear market this year.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by EliteMarketAnalysis
S&P 500 rangeThe S&P 500 Index has been ranging sideways since the US Election gap up on November 6th 2024. SPX support is by the October 2024 high 5850 area. Resistance is by the 6050 zone, even though there was an attempt to hit 6100 in the beginning of December before the FOMC rate cut and government shutdown fear drop on December 18th. Trading a range simplifies long and short entries and exits. However, it only works while the trading range continues. If there's a breakout or breakdown then this range will be invalidated. For the time being, my trade idea is straightforward on SPX. Go long at 5850 and go short at 6050. I think the market is in wait and see mode until Mega Cap earnings in a few weeks. A note of caution, options data is currently extremely bearish through the end of this month. Mega Cap earnings dates: 1/28 MSFT 4:05pm GOOG 4:05pm 1/29 TSLA 4:05 1/30 AMZN 4pm META 4:05pm AAPL 4:30pm SPX options data: 1/10 expiry Put Volume Total 152,200 Call Volume Total 69,422 Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.19 Put Open Interest Total 425,831 Call Open Interest Total 108,857 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.91 1/17 expiry Put Volume Total 129,140 Call Volume Total 97,195 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.33 Put Open Interest Total 1,917,625 Call Open Interest Total 1,013,708 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.89 1/24 expiry Put Volume Total 11,864 Call Volume Total 8,911 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.33 Put Open Interest Total 156,526 Call Open Interest Total 46,537 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.36 1/31 expiry Put Volume Total 36,487 Call Volume Total 12,299 Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.97 Put Open Interest Total 449,738 Call Open Interest Total 116,092 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.87
CBOE:SPX
by Options360
Stock market correction in 2025??I personally believe we'll see a stock market correction in 2025. 1. 30yr treasury yield going higher while FED cut interest rates. Similar situation in 1970s and 1980s where we say a 50% correction in just 2 years in the 1970s (can't remember exact dates) 2. US 10yr/3m yield curve has turned positive. Last times it's done this has been 2000, 2008 and 2020. I'm guessing you know what happened each of those times. 3. Institutional investors increasing long contracts in the yen. The Japanese Yen is a 'risk-off' investment and investors tend to favour it when they don't have much faith in the stock market. 4. US have a volatile president in Trump. The power also seems to be getting to his head a bit - he disagrees with Fed Chair Powell over interest rates, despite not being as educated in economics. He has a lot of power right now and I don't think he will be able to stop a potential market crash for the first year or 2 of his presidency. 5. Back-to-back 20%+ years from the S&P500, could be due a pullback. These are some reasons, I have some more but I don't want to be sat here writing all day. Important to note that if you're a long term investor it's best to just ignore this. "Time in the markets beats timing the markets" as they say. But if you're a day trader I wouldn't be taking many long positions on stocks this year. Could be better to start looking at opportunities in the currency markets. Then again - you don't have to trust me. This isn't financial advice, just my opinion.
SP:SPXShort
by ciantrades
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 01.08.2025🔮 📅 Wed Jan 8 ⏰ 8:15am 🧑‍🌾 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (prev: 146K) ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Unemployment Claims: 214K (prev: 211K) 🎙️ FOMC Member Waller Speaks ⏰ 10:30am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.8M (prev: -1.2M) ⏰ 2:00pm 📜 FOMC Meeting Minutes 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: Slight rally higher and then chop out. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: A little more upside and then faced by some old-fashioned bearishness. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXShort
by PogChan
SPX500 H4 | Sideways price actionSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 6,004.61 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 6,060.00 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 5,825.91 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
The USA S&P 500 Indexthe USA S&P 500 Index (15-minute timeframe), highlighting a recent price action scenario. It shows a rising wedge pattern followed by a significant bearish breakout. The price retraced to a resistance zone around 5984.20 and is now consolidating. Two potential paths are illustrated: either a continuation upwards toward the 6000 level or a rejection that could lead to a further decline toward 5940 support. Fundamental Note: Investors might be cautious due to mixed economic data or upcoming Federal Reserve commentary, which could influence volatility and overall market sentiment.
ICMARKETS:US500
by DreamsForx
SPX - Short Term Bear - Swing Trade (Continuation)This is a continuation to my previously posted trade... Unfortunately I stopped out on the previous trade. That's my fault. There's additional analysis I did that helped me understand where I missed. However, the pattern is still very much in tact and the opportunity still exists. Here's a summary of what I go through in the video, but most important is watch the video to get the full details to better understand the observations. 1hr Chart: After reviewing the weekly, daily, 4hr, 1hr, 5min, 1min charts I recognized the most important indicator for the current prices is the 1hr chart and most important the 50MA crossing down on the 200MA. In addition, there are additional indicators that currently and historically are most important for this setup. Here are the 5 mentioned in the video. - H&S Pattern/Triple Top/Divergence initial formation - Cross down on Strong Support Line - Retest/Fail Strong Support Line - A wave up/down, forming a downward trendline - QQE Signal triggering short as it approaches the channel support line towards a break Historically there have been 4 instances since 2022 when the 50MA has crossed below the 200MA on the 1hr chart July 26, 2024 - -5.0% in 48 bars (5-6 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Apr 15, 2024 - -3.70% 35 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Aug 10. 2023 - -3.75% 40 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Feb 24. 2023 - -5.8% 75 bars (10 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move As mentioned in the video, it has been 7 trading days since the current cross of the 50MA of the 200MA, however, it's unique that the cross took place during the low volume holiday trading period which may have an effect on timing compared to historical moves. Please watch the video for more in depth insight into the historical pattern formations and the relationship to the current price action along with my prediction and trade potential. Fundamental Support: Is still intact from the prior trade - Buffer Indicator 203.7% (Near all time highs) - Buffet portfolio at highest cash level since 2008 (325B) - Shiller PE at 37.2, near 2022 peak of 38, Dot com bubble of 44 - FED announced fewer rate cuts in 2025 - Core PCE at 2.8% and rising since June 2024, above 2% FED target - Inverted Yield Curve is no longer inverted as of Sep 2024, the longest (793 days) and deepest inversion in history. All previous sustained inverted yield curves (8 Total since 1960) except 1 were followed by a recession within 6-12 months once the yield curve was no longer inverted. Economic Data: - Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th - A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position. However, I went back and reviewed previous employment reports and market movements, and basically whatever the trend the market was in at the time of publication, it continued to move in, so I'm not overly concerned. - Next week PPI and CPI will be published on Tues Jan 14th and Wed Jan 15th respectively. These are both potential movers if they were to come in lower/higher, as it may impact the % chance of FED cuts. - Trump inauguration on Monday Jan 20th, also falling on Martin Luther King Day (Markets Closed). I would anticipate potential positive market reaction following his inauguration given the pro-business policies and potential rally, so this is a risk. Overall: If you've watched the video, you can see that the chart patterns historically match up very well to the current. Again, history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. There's no sure thing in this business, however, considering all the factors, I find this to be a solid technical and fundamental trade and given the dominos fall in line I will be taking a position. Current Position: I currently have not taken a position on this trade. I am waiting for the QQE Short signal as mentioned in the video, or any other relevant move to give me the green light. However, here's what I'm looking for if all goes to plan...I will update in the notes if/when I take a position. SPXS Call Options Strike $6.00 Expiration Jan 24th, based on the estimated timeframe mentioned in the video Option Price: Ideally .20-.30 Options: 50-100 depending on my confidence in the chart and price above Stop: 1/2 my entry price Target: Given SPXS is 3x Bear the S&P...I estimate the first target range is $6.75-$6.90 which would be reaching the previous ATH of S&P of 5675 Option Price Est. $.85-$1.00 Approx: 3:1 - 5:1 Profit Loss Ratio The full target range would be between $7.00-$7.25 which would be reaching the H&S Target 5630 or 200 Day Moving Average 5577 Option Price Est. $1.00-$1.50 Approx. 3.3:1 - 7.5:1 Profit Loss Ratio
SP:SPXShort
by jaytmarquardt
2
SPX JAN 7 2025| READ DESCRIPTION |Here we need to understand the power of money & risk management.If it goes to 6200 from here then our RR is just 1: 1.08 . The RR is the heart & soul of a trade. One should be discplined enought to understand this & if you are not getting minimum 1:2 & I have used the word minimum, then there is no point taking that particular trade. You need to think what if a trade goes against me? Always be open to both sides understanding the RR If you are not following RR & rules then this business will eat all your wealth You mind is actually the most powerful thing in the world.
SP:SPX
by THECHAARTIST
33
SPX - Short Term Bear - Swing Trade SP:SPX Here's the details of my trade Short on SPX.... Daily Chart: - Rising Wedge Pattern - Strong Break of Support Line (Fed Announcement Dec 18th) - Retest of the Support Line - Break back down from the Support Line and below 50 day moving average - Divergence on the RSI Fundamental Support: - Buffer Indicator 203.7% (Near all time highs) - Buffet portfolio at highest cash level since 2008 ($325B) - Shiller PE at 37.2, near 2022 peak of 38, Dot com bubble of 44 - FED announced fewer rate cuts in 2025 - Core PCE at 2.8% and rising since June 2024, above 2% FED target - Inverted Yield Curve is no longer inverted as of Sep 2024, the longest (793 days) and deepest inversion in history. All previous sustained inverted yield curves (8 Total since 1960) except 1 were followed by a recession within 6-12 months once the yield curve was no longer inverted. Economic Data: - Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th - A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position if employment figures are positive - However, inadvertently, higher employment figures will reduce the likelihood of FED rate cuts, offsetting some of the upside potential Target: - Previous ATH at 5674 ~-4.5% from current price - Stop: A break back above the support line - Historic market breakdowns (ie Jan 2022, Aug 2024) typically the initial move took 4-9 trading days with potential for up to 10% breakdown before recovery Risks: - Return to normal trading volumes post-holiday could result in continued buying - Trump inauguration could trigger a wave of bullishness - Big news in any of the Mag 7 stocks Overall: The chart patterns and fundamental data not only support a greater chance of a short term move to the downside, but greatly increase the chance of further decline. At this point, the market is in a potential transition and more data and chart movements need to play out before determining if a bear market is underway. My Position: 30 Call Options in SPXS (3x Bear SPX ETF) $6 Strike, Current Price $6.20 Expiration Friday Jan 10th. Average Price is .20 a contract Investment $600 Target $1.00-$1.50 (8-13:1 Profit Loss Ratio) Stop .10 Potential Loss $300 Potential Gain $2400-$3900
SP:SPXShort
by jaytmarquardt