S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 12th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which started on the pivot forecast of January 13, currently in the 2nd phase. This bear is completing the prolonged 50-week cycle and the 4-year cycle. The delay in the cycles wasn’t an exception, as the maximum durations remained within statistical norms. Target levels are given in the post “Bear 2025 in Numbers”. Preliminary timing forecasts for the end of this base cycle were shared in the post from March 23.
☝️ I believe the presidential cycle played a role in the delay of the 4-year cycle, which was supposed to bottom in October 2024 or January 2025 based on timing. Markets simply weren’t ready to fall under a Democratic president.
⚠️ Keep in mind that the end of the current base cycle will mark the beginning of a new 4-year cycle. The start of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a new 4-year cycle could be very energetic. But for how long? Interesting developments are likely in spring 2026 during the final stage of the 7-year crisis cycle.
⚠️ We are holding the short position opened on the extreme forecast of March 24 — the midpoint of Mercury retrograde. The next extreme forecast is on April 7. The next pivot forecast is on April 14 — the end of the Venus retrograde period, which has been very active this year.
