Stock Market Bull TrapThis could be another VERY sneaky bull trap morphing into existence for stock markets.
You have been warned.
SPIUSD trade ideas
potential next target of 8000 for SPXAnalysis of the Chart:
Bull Run Identified:
Two bullish trends are highlighted after 10% corrections.
After each pullback of ~10%, the market resumed its upward trajectory.
Correction Zones:
First correction (~10.29%) occurred in mid-2023.
Second correction (~10.27%) happened recently in early 2025.
These corrections are typical in bull markets, indicating healthy price consolidations before further upside.
Next Target:
The chart suggests a potential next target of 8000 for SPX.
This implies a continued bullish trend and significant upside.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 has experienced multiple bull runs after 10% corrections, indicating a strong uptrend.
If historical patterns repeat, the market could move towards 8000, provided macroeconomic conditions remain supportive.
BEARISH ALT WAVE PEAKING NOWThe chart posted is the Bearish alt we should Not rally anymore is I am correct and if there is a bearish alt. I am looking for a 3 wave drop in the form of an abc decline we should decline to a window of .786 in total of the rally from 5504 or Make a small new low to 5489. Then we should rally very sharp in a 5 wave rally to 50 % or .618 of the The drop from 6147 This is the ONLY BEARISH WAVE COUNT Best of trades WAVETIMER
US500 - Are Bulls Setting Up for a Bullish Push?Overview of Market Structure
The US500 has been trading in a well-defined bearish channel for an extended period, continuously making lower highs and lower lows. This downtrend was respected until recently, when the price broke out of its bearish structure, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
Following the breakout, price also breached a key resistance level (marked in red), which had previously acted as a significant supply zone. Now that this resistance has been broken, it may flip into a support level, offering a high-probability area for a bullish continuation.
I expect price to retest this newly-formed support zone before continuing its move upward, targeting the unfilled imbalance zone above (highlighted in green).
Breakout of the Bearish Structure
One of the most important aspects of this setup is the confirmed breakout of the bearish structure. The market was respecting a descending channel, creating lower highs and lower lows. However, with this breakout, price is no longer following the previous downtrend pattern.
A breakout like this often leads to a shift in market direction, meaning buyers are now in control, and the next likely move is bullish continuation.
Resistance Break & Potential Support Retest
The red zone represents a major resistance level that has now been broken. This area had previously rejected price multiple times, showing that sellers were strongly defending it.
Now that price has successfully closed above this level, we can anticipate a retest of this area as new support before price resumes its move higher. This is a classic example of a resistance-turned-support flip, a key concept in technical analysis.
Imbalance Zones & Price Efficiency
An important part of this trade setup is the unfilled imbalance zone above. When price moves too quickly in one direction, it often creates gaps or inefficiencies in the market, which tend to get revisited later.
The unfilled imbalance zone above (highlighted in green) is a key target for this bullish move.
Price is likely to fill this inefficiency after confirming support at the previous resistance level.
Since price action tends to seek out liquidity and inefficiencies, this gives us a clear roadmap for the next likely movement in the market.
Why This Trade Has High Probability
Breakout of Bearish Structure โ This suggests a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Resistance Turned Support โ A classic market structure retest that provides strong confluence for a bullish move.
Imbalance Fill โ The market tends to fill inefficiencies left in impulsive moves, making the imbalance zone above a logical target.
Liquidity Grab Potential โ Retesting the broken resistance could serve as a liquidity grab before price moves higher.
Conclusion
This setup provides a high-probability long opportunity based on a bearish structure breakout, resistance-turned-support retest, and imbalance fill target. If price follows the expected path, we should see a retest of the red zone before a bullish continuation into the imbalance zone above.
By patiently waiting for price confirmation at key levels, this trade offers a strong risk-to-reward ratio while aligning with smart money concepts and price efficiency principles.
__________________________________________
Thanks for your support!
If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like ๐ and leave a comment, Iโd love to hear your thoughts! ๐
Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Letโs grow and trade smarter together! ๐
Retest SPX 200 SMA Patience The S&P 500 (SPX) is at a pivotal moment this week as it tests its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a key technical level that often dictates market sentiment. With volatility creeping higher and investors weighing economic data, interest rate expectations, and earnings forecasts, the index's ability to hold this level could determine the next directional move.
I am staying patient, watching and waiting. A successful defense of the 200-SMA could signal a bottoming process, inviting dip buyers back into the market and potentially setting up a rebound toward key resistance zones. Conversely, a confirmed breakdown below this level could trigger a wave of technical selling, accelerating downside momentum as traders reassess risk exposure.
For now, I remain on the sidelines. I go long when Kenjen is above price, ensuring I trade with momentum and confirmation rather than speculation. All eyes are on how price action develops around this crucial support.
S&P INTRADAY ahead of US Consumer Confidence data The Consumer Confidence Index, set to be released today at 14:00 GMT by the Conference Board, measures consumer sentiment on spending, jobs, inflation, and the economy. Since consumer spending drives the U.S. economy, a strong reading can signal bullish momentum for equities, while a weak reading may indicate bearish sentiment. Traders watch this data closely for insights into market direction.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5780
Resistance Level 2: 5844
Resistance Level 3: 5920
Support Level 1: 5660
Support Level 2: 5604
Support Level 3: 5500
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Where Next for the S&P 500?
With the S&P 500 tumbling 10% from its mid-February highs, we take a look at whether this correction is running out of steamโor just getting started. A weak bounce and a looming resistance zone suggest the index has work to do before the bulls can regain control.
Tariffs, Turmoil, and the End of โAmerican Exceptionalismโ?
For much of the past two years, U.S. stocks have outpaced global peers, fuelled by strong economic growth and corporate earnings. But that narrative is being rapidly unwound. Trumpโs sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China have triggered fears of a slowdown, prompting Wall Street to question how long U.S. assets can maintain their edge.
The fallout has been brutal. The Federal Reserve has already downgraded its growth forecasts, citing tariffs as a key headwind. Meanwhile, a rare twin sell-off in both the U.S. dollar and equities suggests global investors are losing confidence in the โAmerican exceptionalismโ trade. Add to that a sharp decline in major tech and healthcare stocks, and itโs no surprise the S&P 500 has struggled to find its footing.
A Weak Bounce, a Tough Road Ahead
After a sharp sell-off, the S&P 500 has started to consolidate, but thereโs little sign of momentum shifting in favour of the bulls just yet. While the index has bounced from its March lows, price action remains sluggish, and a key resistance zone is emerging.
The 200-day simple moving average, the broken January swing lows, and the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the trend highs all align to form a confluent resistance zone to keep a close eye on. Even if buyers can push prices higher, this confluence suggests theyโll need to overcome strong overhead pressure before any sustained recovery can take hold.
S&P500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Short-Term Traders Eye the Range
On the hourly chart, last weekโs price action has carved out a well-defined range, setting up a key battleground for short-term traders:
โข A break above the range could see the S&P 500 challenge the resistance zone outlined on the daily chart.
โข A break below would likely put the March lows back in play, potentially triggering another leg lower.
S&P 500 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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Bear Slippers Off. Bull Boots Laced.Bear Slippers Off. Bull Boots Laced. | SPX Analysis 25 Mar 2025
The tide turned Monday, and for once, the charts didnโt just mutter vaguely in Morse code โ they actually gave us something to work with.
After weeks of grindy, gummy-bear movement, SPX finally flashed a bullish signal. The classic breakout-pullback has shown itself on the 30-minute timeframe, and the daily chart has joined the party with a sharp reversal, flipping us right back into the prior range.
Letโs just say thisโฆ not rolling those final bear swings? Smartest decision I didnโt overthink. I just wanted to stop the bleeding. Turns out, it also kept me out of harmโs way.
Now, with the bear slippers safely tucked back into the winter cupboard, Iโm eyeing the bull setups. But as always โ Iโm not jumping just yetโฆ
---
Deeper Dive Analysis:
Monday brought a much-needed shakeup โ not the kind that rattles your coffee mug off the desk, but the kind that whispers: โSomethingโs changedโฆโ
And it has.
The 30-minute chart formed a clean breakout-pullback, the kind you could frame on the wall and call โtextbook.โ
The daily chart? Weโve got a bullish reversal pattern thatโs pushing price back into the old range.
That means my bearish bias has officially flipped.
Goodbye bear slippers. Hello, Bull Boots.
Letโs talk about those bears for a momentโฆ
Last weekโs trades didnโt go to plan. Fridayโs rally chewed them up, and instead of rolling endlessly like a gambler doubling down, I did what needed to be done: closed them. Cleared the head. Took the "L".
And now, Iโm glad I did.
Sometimes, the best trade is no trade. Or at least, no new pain.
During my Fast Forward mentorship call, we did our usual morning deep dive.
We looked at:
The GEX flip (Gamma Exposure momentum line)
Intraday call wall pressure
And the speculative cap at 5765 for the high of day
With that info, I made the call to delay my bull swing entry. Why chase a top when the marketโs whispering โpullback pendingโ? Iโd rather find a smarter entryโฆ with more meat on the bone.
So what now?
Bias is bullish
5765 & 5805 = overhead friction
Waiting for a deeper pullback before entering long - Ideally 5720
My triggerโs locked. My chartโs marked. Now I wait.
And if that pullback doesnโt come?
Fine. Iโll let it go and re-evaluate. No FOMO. No flinching.
The plan is simple: Trade with the setup, not the hype.
--
Fun Fact
Benjamin Graham once said, โIn the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.โ
But he never accounted for meme stocks, social media panic, and Reddit-fuelled rocket ships.
Today, it often feels like the market's a slot machine with a Twitter feed.
Still โ patterns like breakout-pullbacks?
Theyโre timeless, regardless of the noise.
SPX buy to 5,867Quick Buy to 5,867 , possible rejection at 5,867 may be a sell down to 5,680-5,700 to create higher low then continue the uptrend we are in.
Vanguard - โWe are the invisible hand of Adam Smithโ John BogleIf anyone ever thought of erecting a monument to the person who did the most for American investors โ the choice would fall on John Bogle. These words are not from a promotional brochure but a quote from Warren Buffett himself.
Book summary
But most people donโt even know who Bogle is. And certainly donโt realize that he didnโt just โcreate index funds.โ He built an invulnerable power machine disguised as client care.
๐ From a thesis to $10 trillion under management
Bogleโs story begins with an ordinary guy born during the Great Depression. Through poverty, scholarship-based education, and working from age 10 โ he makes his way into Princeton, where he writes a thesis on a topic that would change the industry: "mutual funds."
Over the years, his philosophy turned into what we now know as "passive investing." From day one, the Vanguard he created operated on the principle: "maximum benefit to the investor, minimum โ to the managers." No fees, no speculation, no marketing. And it worked. But hereโs the paradox: โถ Vanguard gave up profit for the mission.
โถ The world responded โ investors were tired of the noise.
โถ As a result โ "Vanguard grew into a monster capable of managing the economies of entire nations."
๐ง A revolutionary idea: a fund owned by investors
Bogle built a structure where "the fund owners are the investors themselves."
Sounds beautiful: no shareholders, no profit pressure โ only long-term client interests. But then who de facto manages these trillions?
โ ๏ธ Vanguard is not a public company.
โ ๏ธ Its shares are not traded.
โ ๏ธ The real ownership mechanism โ a black box.
Itโs the perfect system for... "invisible control." And this isnโt a conspiracy theory, but logic:
If you canโt find the ultimate beneficiary โ it means theyโre either too big, or hiding for a reason.
๐ธ๏ธ The โBig Threeโ and the invisible hand effect
Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street โ three funds that hold between 3% to 8% of shares in most of the worldโs largest corporations. It seems small, but only 15โ20% of shares are in free float.
โ This gives the Big Three โreal powerโ: from voting at meetings to influencing media narratives and climate policy.
๐ They own stakes in CNN, Fox, and Disney.
๐ Invest in oil companies that violate human rights.
๐ And at the same time โ push the โgreen transitionโ agenda.
Conflict of interest? No. Itโs โtotal control over both sides of the conflict.โ
๐คซ Why Vanguard is impossible to destroy
If you think Vanguard is just an investment fund, here are a few facts:
๐ No company shares โ canโt buy a controlling stake.
๐ Over 400 legal entities โ canโt file a single lawsuit.
๐ Every investor essentially becomes a โco-ownerโ โ responsibility is blurred.
๐ All stakes split below 10% โ bypass antitrust laws.
You canโt sue a ghost.
You canโt attack a network if you donโt know where its center is.
๐งญ Whatโs next?
Today, Vanguard manages over $10 trillion, which is more than the GDP of Germany, India, and Brazil combined.
Though the fundโs founder passed away as โthe conscience of Wall Street,โ his creation became an "architecture of global control" that even the U.S. Federal Reserve couldnโt handle.
๐ค โWe are the invisible hand of Adam Smith,โ John Bogle once said.
A more detailed book review will follow below. I understand how important this is in our time and I appreciate it.
๐ General Concept of the Book:
The book is at once the autobiography of John Bogle, the story of the founding and development of Vanguard, and a manifesto of index investing philosophy. A runaway waiter, Princeton graduate, and "Wall Street rebel," Bogle creates Vanguard โ a company that changed the investment world by making it more fair and accessible.
๐ Structure of the Book:
The book is divided into four parts:
Part I โ The History of Vanguard.
Part II โ The Evolution of Key Funds.
Part III โ The Future of Investment Management.
Part IV โ Personal Reflections, Philosophy, and Values of the Author.
๐ก Key Ideas of the Book (Introductory Chapters, Preface):
- Index investing is the most important financial innovation of the 20th century.
- Passive management beats active managers in returns and costs.
- Vanguardโs mission is not to make money off investors, but to serve them.
- Criticism of Wall Street: high fees, conflicts of interest, short-term thinking.
- Financial revolution โ a mass shift of investors from active to index funds.
๐ง Bogle's Values:
- Long-term thinking. Donโt give in to market โnoise.โ
- Honesty and transparency in investing.
- Minimal costs = maximum return for the investor.
- Fiduciary duty: protecting the clientโs interest comes first.
๐ Part I: The History of Vanguard
๐น Chapter 1: 1974 โ The Prophecy
Context:
John Bogle is in a difficult position โ heโs fired as head of Wellington Management Company.
During a trip to Los Angeles, he meets John Lovelace of American Funds, who warns: if you create a truly mutual investment company, youโll destroy the industry.
Main Idea:
โก Bogle decides to go against the profit-driven industry and creates Vanguard โ a company owned by investors, not managers.
Key Moments:
- Vanguard is founded in 1974 โ in the middle of a crisis.
- The company has no external shareholders โ all โprofitsโ are returned to investors through lower fees.
- In 1975, the first index fund for individual investors is launched โ a revolutionary idea, initially ridiculed as โBogleโs madness.โ
Important Quotes:
"Gross return before costs is market return. Net return after costs is lower. Therefore, to get the maximum, you must minimize costs."
โ Bogleโs fundamental rule
๐น Chapter 2: 1945โ1965 โ Background: Blair Academy, Princeton, Fortune, and Wellington
Early Life:
Bogle studies at Blair Academy on a scholarship, works as a waiter.
He enters Princeton. Struggles with his economics course, butโฆ
In the library, he accidentally finds the Fortune article โBig Money in Bostonโ โ about mutual funds.
Turning Point:
This article inspires Bogle to write his thesis:
โThe Economic Role of the Investment Companyโ, where he argues:
- Funds should work for investors;
- Donโt expect them to beat the market;
- Costs must be minimized;
- Fund structure must be fair and transparent.
Career Start:
Work at Wellington Management (Philadelphia).
Starts from scratch, rising from junior analyst to president of the company.
Under Walter Morganโs leadership, he learns the principles of discipline and serving investors.
โ๏ธ Interim Summary
Whatโs important from these early chapters:
- Vanguard was born from the ruins of Bogleโs former career โ an example of how failure can be the beginning of greatness.
- Already in college, Bogle saw the issue of conflicts of interest in the industry.
- His philosophy is idealism in action: donโt play guessing games โ just invest in the market and reduce costs.
๐ Chapter 3: 1965โ1974 โ Rise and Fall
๐ Appointed President of Wellington Management:
In 1965, at just 35 years old, John Bogle becomes president of Wellington.
He decides to modernize the business and bring in young star managers from Wall Street, especially from the firm Thorndike, Doran, Paine & Lewis.
โ ๏ธ Risky Alliance:
Bogle makes a fatal mistake โ he merges with the new management company without ensuring value alignment.
The new partners are focused on profit and short-term gains, not building a strong long-term foundation.
This leads to internal conflict, loss of trust, and poor fund performance.
๐ฅ Dismissal:
In 1974, after a series of conflicts, the board removes Bogle.
He loses control of the company he built for nearly 25 years.
Bogleโs comment:
"I was fired, but I was still chairman of the Wellington mutual funds โ and that turned out to be a lifeline."
๐ Chapter 4: 1974โ1975 โ The Birth of Vanguard
๐งฉ A Unique Legal Loophole:
Though Bogle was fired from the management company, he remained head of the Wellington Fund trustees โ giving him the opportunity to build a new independent structure.
๐ Creating Vanguard:
In December 1974, he launches The Vanguard Group โ a company owned by the investors (shareholders) themselves.
Model: the fund belongs to the investors โ the fund owns the management company โ no outside profit, only cost recovery.
โ๏ธ "Vanguard" as a Symbol:
The name was inspired by Admiral Horatio Nelsonโs ship โ HMS Vanguard.
A symbol of leadership, courage, and moving against the tide.
Key Idea:
Vanguard would be the only truly mutual investment organization โ a model where clients = owners.
๐ Chapter 5: 1975 โ The First Index Fund
๐คฏ Revolution: The Indexing Approach
Bogle decides to create the first index mutual fund for retail investors.
Name: First Index Investment Trust (later โ Vanguard 500 Index Fund).
Idea: invest in all S&P 500 stocks to reflect the marketโs return instead of trying to beat it.
๐ช A Blow to the Industry:
The financial world reacts harshly:
- โBogleโs madnessโ;
- โThis is a failureโ;
- โWho would want to just match the market?โ
๐ง Humble Beginning:
The goal was to raise $150 million, but only $11 million was collected โ tiny by industry standards.
But Bogle didnโt give up:
"It was a small step, but with a powerful message."
๐ก Summary of Chapters 3โ5: How Vanguard Was Built
๐ Event ๐ฌ Meaning
Loss of control at Wellington ----- Collapse of the old model, beginning of a new path
Creation of Vanguard------------- Innovative, investor-first structure
Launch of index fund--------------Start of the indexing revolution, Bogleโs core philosophy
๐ Quotes for Thought:
"All I did was apply common sense. I just said: Letโs leave the returns to the investors, not the managers." โ John Bogle
"This is a business where you get what you donโt pay for. Lower costs = better results." โ Bogleโs favorite saying, debunking โmore is betterโ
๐ Chapter 6: 1976โ1981 โ The Survival Period
โณ Tough Start:
After launching the index fund, Vanguard faces slow growth and constant skepticism.
For 83 straight months (nearly 7 years!), Vanguard sees net outflows โ investors are hesitant to trust this new model.
๐งฑ Laying the Foundation:
Bogle and his team focus on:
- Transparency
- Lowering costs
- Investor education (they explain what it means to โstay the courseโ)
๐ฌ The Core Dilemma:
"All investors want to beat the market. But no one wants to pay the price: high fees, taxes, risks. We offered an alternative โ reliability, simplicity, and low cost."
๐ Small Wins:
Despite modest volume, Vanguard starts building a reputation as an โhonest player.โ
It becomes evident: investors using Vanguard achieve better long-term results than those chasing trendy funds.
๐ Chapter 7: 1982โ1991 โ Growth and Recognition
๐ก The Power of Philosophy:
Bogle keeps repeating: โStay the courseโ โ donโt try to predict the market, donโt fall for fear and greed.
This message becomes especially powerful after the 1982 and 1987 market crises.
๐ The First Fruits:
A slow but steady increase in assets begins.
Vanguard launches new index funds:
- Total Stock Market Index
- Bond Index
- International Index
๐ฃ Educational Mission:
Bogle writes books, articles, gives interviews.
He isnโt just running a fund โ heโs changing how people think about investing.
A community of followers emerges โ the Bogleheads.
๐ Key Stats:
By 1991, Vanguard's assets reach around $130 billion.
Index funds begin receiving positive reviews from analysts, including Morningstar.
๐ Chapter 8: 1991โ1999 โ Industry Leadership
๐ Explosive Growth:
In the 1990s, index funds go mainstream.
Investors realize that most active funds underperform the market โ and they vote with their money for Vanguard.
๐งฐ Expanding the Product Line:
Vanguard introduces:
- Retirement funds
- Bond funds
- International and balanced funds
- Admiral Shares โ low-cost funds for loyal investors
๐ข Open Fight with the Industry:
Bogle continues to harshly criticize Wall Street:
- For greed, manipulation, and lack of transparency
- For prioritizing company profit over client interest
"The industry hates Vanguard because it proves you can be honest and still succeed."
โ ๏ธ Internal Challenges:
In the late 1990s, Bogleโs health declines.
He passes leadership to Jack Brennan but retains influence on company strategy.
๐ Midpoint Summary (Chapters 6โ8)
๐
Phase ๐ Essence
1976โ1981 Quiet survival: building the model, fighting for trust
1982โ1991 Slow growth: philosophy attracts investors
1991โ1999 Recognition and leadership: indexing becomes dominant
๐ฌ Bogle Quotes from These Chapters:
"Investing is not a business. Itโs a service. Those who forget this lose everything."
"Every dollar spent on fees is a dollar lost to your future."
"Volatility is not the enemy. The real enemy is you, if you panic."
๐ Chapter 9: Leadership as a Calling
๐ก A Leader โ A Manager:
Bogle contrasts a true leader with just an efficient executive.
A real leader:
- Puts othersโ interests above their own
- Has a moral compass, not just KPIs
- Makes hard, unpopular decisions
๐ค His Leadership Style:
"Donโt ask others to do what you wouldnโt do yourself."
"Always explain why โ people follow meaning, not orders."
He genuinely believes Vanguard should be more than a successful business โ it should be a force for good in the market.
"Leadership is loyalty to an idea bigger than yourself."
๐ Feedback Principle:
Bogle constantly interacts with clients, employees, and journalists.
He never isolates himself in an โivory towerโ โ he believes this openness is a leaderโs true strength.
๐ Chapter 10: Client Service โ Vanguardโs Mission
๐งญ The Mission:
"Maximize investor returns โ not company profits."
Vanguard is built around fiduciary responsibility: every decision must pass the test โ is this in the investorโs best interest or not?
๐งพ How Itโs Implemented:
- Fees below market average โ investors keep more
- No ads for โhotโ funds โ Vanguard sells stability, not trends
- No sales commissions โ no one profits off pushing funds to clients
- Ethical code โ โDonโt do anything you wouldnโt want on the front page of the newspaper.โ
"Weโre not trying to be the best for Wall Street. Weโre trying to be the best for you."
๐ Chapter 11: The Market Should Serve Society
๐ Critique of Modern Wall Street:
Bogle argues that finance has drifted from its original purpose.
Investing has turned into trading.
The investor became a cash cow, not a partner.
"The market now serves itself โ and weโre still paying the price."
๐ฑ What the System Should Look Like:
- Companies should serve society
- Investors should be owners, not speculators
- Funds should be transparent, accountable, and honest
๐ข Call for Reform:
Bogle calls for a rethinking of finance:
- Restore the human element
- Make mission more important than profit
- Protect long-term interests of millions of ordinary investors
"If we want capitalism with a human face, we must return finance to serving society."
๐ Summary of Chapters 9โ11: Bogle's Philosophy
๐ Direction------------๐ฌ Essence
Leadership-------------Morality, leading by example, purpose-driven
Business---------------First and foremost โ service to the client
Financial System-------Must work for society, not just for profit of the few
โจ Inspirational Quotes:
"The most important thing you can invest is not money โ itโs your conscience."
"Honesty in business is not a competitive edge. Itโs a duty."
"Iโm not against capitalism. Iโm against capitalism without morals."
๐ Chapter 12: The Future of Investing โ Where the Industry Is Headed
๐ Bogle sees three main trends:
Victory of Passive Investing:
- Index funds continue to displace active management
- Their share of assets under management is growing rapidly
- More investors are realizing the power of simplicity
Fee Pressure:
- Fees are approaching zero (some funds are effectively free)
- Winners: investors. Losers: traditional management companies
The Role of Technology:
- Rise of robo-advisors (automated investment advisors)
- But Bogle warns: Technology without philosophy is just a tool, not a solution
๐จ Threat #1 โ Hyperfinancialization:
"The market is turning into a casino. And the fewer the players, the more the house wins."
Bogle reminds us: the goal of investing is owning businesses โ not gambling.
The higher the turnover, the more you lose on fees and taxes.
๐ Chapter 13: The Power of Indexing โ Threat or Blessing?
๐ Strength in Scale:
The biggest index providers (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street) own large shares in nearly all companies in the indexes.
This raises the issue of concentrated power โ is too much influence in too few hands?
โ๏ธ The Indexing Paradox:
Index funds donโt actively vote on corporate governance issues.
So the more power they hold, the less oversight there is over company management.
๐ฃ Bogleโs Proposals:
- Establish a code of conduct for index providers
- Require them to vote in investorsโ interests
- Mandate transparency in how they use their voting power
"We fought for the democratization of investing. We cannot let it end in a new monarchy."
๐ Chapter 14: Personal Reflections โ On Life, Mission, and Faith
๐งฌ Personal and Eternal:
Bogle shares his core life principles:
- To serve, not to own
- To leave a mark, not accumulate
- To do whatโs right, not whatโs profitable
He talks about his battle with heart disease โ both as a personal journey and a metaphor for resisting the system.
๐ Gratitude:
He dedicates the book to his family, colleagues, and investors.
Emphasizes: every day is a chance to be useful.
"I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. My career isnโt a triumph โ itโs a thank you to fate for the chance to be heard."
๐ Summary of Chapters 12โ14: Looking Ahead and Within
๐ Theme-----------------๐ฌ Essence
Future of Investing---------Indexing is the new standard, but needs responsible stewardship
Concentration of Power----Index giants must be accountable to society
Personal Legacy-----------Life is about service, honesty, and setting an example
๐ฌ Final Inspirational Quotes:
"Life isnโt about making more money. Itโs about doing more good."
"One day, someone will say: โBogle was stubborn. He never compromised his conscience.โ That will be the best reward."
๐งฉ Bogleโs Principle Summary (from the book):
- Lower costs โ pay less = keep more
- Donโt chase returns โ be realistic
- Be a long-term investor โ ignore market noise
- Invest broadly, passively, regularly
- Donโt try to beat the market โ own the market
- Focus on goals, not trends
- Finance = service. Not a business for profit
๐ก Investment Philosophy
๐จ โThis is a business where you get what you donโt pay for.โ
๐จ โDonโt try to beat the market. Just own it.โ
๐จ โIn the stock market, investors are rewarded for patience and punished for frenzy.โ
๐จ โGross return minus costs = market return. After costs โ less. So: reduce costs โ and you win.โ
๐จ โThe problem isnโt that investors know too little. The problem is they know too much of what doesnโt matter.โ
๐งญ Principles & Morality
๐ฉ โInvesting is not a business. Itโs a service.โ
๐ฉ โHonesty isnโt a strategy. Itโs an obligation.โ
๐ฉ โThe goal of Vanguard isnโt to make more, but to return to the investor whatโs rightfully theirs.โ
๐ฉ โIf your investments keep you up at night, change them. Or better โ change yourself.โ
๐ง On Leadership and Mission
๐ท โA leader isnโt the one in front. Itโs the one responsible for the rest.โ
๐ท โRespect isnโt bought. Itโs earned when you do whatโs right, even if itโs unpopular.โ
๐ท โWe didnโt build Vanguard for glory. We built it to leave something better than what was.โ
๐ฌ On the Market and Industry
๐ด โToday's stock market isnโt a place for investors. Itโs a casino with a shiny sign.โ
๐ด โWeโre not against capital. Weโre against capitalism without a conscience.โ
๐ด โThe people selling investments always say they can pick the best. But what if the best is just paying less?โ
โค๏ธ On Life and Legacy
๐ โI created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. Itโs not my victory โ itโs gratitude for the chance to serve.โ
๐ โEvery day is a chance to do something not for yourself.โ
๐ โYou can measure success with money. Or with a conscience, you donโt have to justify.โ
It was a lot of work!
Click to like + Write in the comments your favorite books about the financial market
Best regards, EXCAVO
_____________________
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
$SPX key level test for a medium-term direction SP:SPX is reaching the 5780 level which was previously strong downside resistance and now is a strong upside resistance.
S&P500 This is the buy opportunity of the year for a 7000 TargetThe S&P500 index (SPX) is in the process of posting its 2nd straight green 1W candle, following a streak of 4 red weeks since the February 17 peak. That streaฮบ was technically the Bearish Leg of the 1.5-year Channel Up and as you can see, it made a direct contact with its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
As the same time, the 1W RSI almost touched the 40.00 Support that priced the October 23 2023 Low, which was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The similarities don't stop there as both Bearish Legs had approximately a -10.97% decline, the strongest within that time-frame.
The Bullish Leg that followed that bottom initially peaked on a +28.85% rise, almost touching the 2.236 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the symmetry holds between the Bullish Legs as well, we can be expecting the index to start the new Bullish Leg now and target 7000 by the end of the year, which is marginally below both the 2.236 Fib ext and a potential +28.85% rise.
This may indeed be the best buy opportunity for 2025.
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๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
US500 Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,754.53.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,665.70 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P 500: The Correction Is Not Over Yet โ Targets Around 5000At the moment, the S&P 500 is holding relatively stable, but I believe the current decline is just part of a larger correction following decades of growth.
Right now, the index is retracing to the 50% pullback area (marked on the chart), which aligns with a typical retest before a potential continuation of the downward move. In this zone, a manipulation is likely, after which the decline may resume.
An additional confirmation of this scenario is the unfilled gap below, which remains uncovered. Historically, the market tends to close such gaps. Moreover, there are untested price levels lower on the chart, suggesting a high probability of further downside movement, with targets around 5000 points.
I will keep monitoring the situation and update my outlook as new data emerges.
Bullish momentum to extend?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 5,671.90
1st Support: 5,599.90
1st Resistance: 5,843.10
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Disclaimer:
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Bullish S&P500 I am going to be looking for longs this new quarter.
Seasonal Tendacies are looking bullish as well
#SPX - 25 MarHuge run up in #SPX after a gap up. Strongly bullish for further upside.
Any dips is a buying opportunity. Looking at PZ to hold for another leg higher, or if it breaks, look at 5700 for a long up to 5880 then 6000.
Caution on Crypto, Tech, SPXI know its a mess, this is just for me anyway.
I tend to overcomplicate things so now then, lets over simplify for my monkey brain:
Trend line broken = Warning, thing are likely to change ( even though you didnt get the bull market you wanted)
Watch said trend retest, look for weakness, struggling price action
selling on the retest of the top lows last time would offer you 5% off the peako top, (Thats really good!! stop being a perfectionist)
I am very much frustrated with this market, never got the crazy part I was waiting for. But the lack of euphoria is really not that unreasonable when you think about what has been goin on the past 5 years. Everyone is poorer liquidity has been super tight to curb inflation and we still got NASDAQ:NDX up 150% Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN did a 10x and I still am not happy(likely due to the max pain trade of my life COINBASE:ETHUSD ). I have realized that I have been hoping for another 2018 bull run. It may or may not happen, but I can't expect any market to reflect that in any significant way. Markets are much more dynamic than I give them credit for sometimes. They will rhyme but often in ways you do not expect and will not be made clear until that little bastard hindsight kicks in, showing you how obvious it was.
Hourly Sell DivergenceThere was supposed to be less tariffs, but by the close, it's more tariffs not less. The charts don't lie like politicians often do.
SP500 - Long Strategy with FED effectI think that FED can give a pump to SP500, probably we will go directly to first 2 target than we can have a retest of support area. In any case there is a volume pressure under this price level so is aspected a long wave.
S&P 500 ,,, End of correctionUptrend
Based on my strategy, the corrective wave appears to have terminated with today's daily candle. Notably, a descending trend line and a major level have been broken. If today's daily candle had no upper shadow, I would consider taking buying positions.
SPX us500The index has a target price range of 5991, there is a possibility of going up from this moment, but another possibility is that the range of 5520 will be touched and then it will move up.
[W] SP500 - 24.3.2025This has been an unusually disturbing prediction that I have ever made, and yet so long expected. It's also probably for the first time, I do it on a weekly chart! The huge question mark here, is how FED will react to stagflation turning into a recession, and to recession with a looming threat to progress further. At some point, they might be tempted to act with low rate and EQ, which will further increase already high Gini index and might eventually cause defaults on loans and mortages. Thus, causing a crisis not seen since 2008. The current president Donald Trump might want to distract from the increasingly worsening domestic situation by seeking and external (and internal) enemy, further strengthening his grip on power. While the entire situation might provide a temporary boost to the defense sector alongside with utilities, foreign capital and trade will likely diminish. Unlike the 2008 crisis that was caused predominantly by internal factors, this case might be marked by geopolitical isolation which threatens to leave a much deeper scar.
