Bottom is close, what's next?We can flush down tomorrow but according to cycles, the bottom should be very soon - maybe tomorrow. We look at possible bounce targets.
SPIUSD trade ideas
Capitulation Might be Close, but A Big Low Could Be Also.I've explained for a while my idea if 5500 isn't support for SPX then we see a capitulation period to the 5100 sort of area.
I think the case for this is picking up increasing merit. For a while I've not really been sure what to expect if that happened. My natural tendency to fade moves would make me naturally bullish but some different outcomes I considered would have that move being an important break and us only consolidating before heading lower.
With the way all of this is shaping up, I think if I see a capitulation period now I have a strong bull bias. I do think we might be setting up a much larger decline overall but a sharp drop here would usually give some sort of bull trap.
There are different ranges of bull traps. Shallow, mid and deep and spike out. Modern day markets run perpetually on hard-mode so it's reasonable to expect the most tricky one.
Big bull bias for the immediate term if we put in a capitulation swing.
I built up a position into the rally today. Which was not a lot of fun during sections of the day and harrowing for a moment late in the day but has me positioned well into the rally. I'm looking for a move down to under 5200 and close to 5100. My target would be 5150 or so at biggest with aggressive locking in near 5200.
If this move hits (especially if it hits with bad news), will be super bullish for the near term - but I would consider this an important bear break if it comes.
S&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's TariffS&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's Tariff Announcement
As shown on the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, the benchmark US stock index dropped below 5,450 points for the first time in 2025. This decline reflects the US stock market’s reaction to the tariffs imposed by the White House on international trade.
According to Reuters:
→ President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on most goods imported into the United States, with Asian countries being hit the hardest.
→ This move escalates the global trade war. "The consequences will be devastating for millions of people worldwide," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adding that the 27-member EU bloc is preparing to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail.
Financial Markets’ Reaction to Trump’s Tariffs
→ Stock markets in Beijing and Tokyo fell to multi-month lows.
→ Gold hit a new all-time high, surpassing $3,160.
→ The US dollar weakened against other major currencies.
The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is now trading at levels last seen in September 2024, before Trump's election victory.
Investor sentiment appears to have turned bearish, with growing concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs, as fears mount that they could slow down the US economy and fuel inflation.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
The bearish momentum seen yesterday signals a continued correction, which we first identified in our 17 March analysis.
At that time, we mapped out a rising channel (blue) that began in 2024, suggesting that selling pressure might ease near its lower boundary. However, Trump's policy decision has reinforced bearish confidence, and now the price may continue fluctuating within the two downward-sloping red lines. This suggests that the long-term blue growth channel is losing its relevance.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GENERATIONAL unwind in stock markets starting.GENERATIONAL unwind in stock markets starting.
This capital rotation is a VERY rare macro event, which very few traders have previously lived through.
Is your financial advisor AWARE of this?
US500 - Are Bulls Setting Up for a Bullish Push?Overview of Market Structure
The US500 has been trading in a well-defined bearish channel for an extended period, continuously making lower highs and lower lows. This downtrend was respected until recently, when the price broke out of its bearish structure, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
Following the breakout, price also breached a key resistance level (marked in red), which had previously acted as a significant supply zone. Now that this resistance has been broken, it may flip into a support level, offering a high-probability area for a bullish continuation.
I expect price to retest this newly-formed support zone before continuing its move upward, targeting the unfilled imbalance zone above (highlighted in green).
Breakout of the Bearish Structure
One of the most important aspects of this setup is the confirmed breakout of the bearish structure. The market was respecting a descending channel, creating lower highs and lower lows. However, with this breakout, price is no longer following the previous downtrend pattern.
A breakout like this often leads to a shift in market direction, meaning buyers are now in control, and the next likely move is bullish continuation.
Resistance Break & Potential Support Retest
The red zone represents a major resistance level that has now been broken. This area had previously rejected price multiple times, showing that sellers were strongly defending it.
Now that price has successfully closed above this level, we can anticipate a retest of this area as new support before price resumes its move higher. This is a classic example of a resistance-turned-support flip, a key concept in technical analysis.
Imbalance Zones & Price Efficiency
An important part of this trade setup is the unfilled imbalance zone above. When price moves too quickly in one direction, it often creates gaps or inefficiencies in the market, which tend to get revisited later.
The unfilled imbalance zone above (highlighted in green) is a key target for this bullish move.
Price is likely to fill this inefficiency after confirming support at the previous resistance level.
Since price action tends to seek out liquidity and inefficiencies, this gives us a clear roadmap for the next likely movement in the market.
Why This Trade Has High Probability
Breakout of Bearish Structure – This suggests a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Resistance Turned Support – A classic market structure retest that provides strong confluence for a bullish move.
Imbalance Fill – The market tends to fill inefficiencies left in impulsive moves, making the imbalance zone above a logical target.
Liquidity Grab Potential – Retesting the broken resistance could serve as a liquidity grab before price moves higher.
Conclusion
This setup provides a high-probability long opportunity based on a bearish structure breakout, resistance-turned-support retest, and imbalance fill target. If price follows the expected path, we should see a retest of the red zone before a bullish continuation into the imbalance zone above.
By patiently waiting for price confirmation at key levels, this trade offers a strong risk-to-reward ratio while aligning with smart money concepts and price efficiency principles.
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S&P 500 Down 3% – Divergence AppearsThe S&P 500 (SPX) continues to show a strong bearish bias and is approaching the 5,300-point level in the short term. Selling pressure remains steady as post-“Liberation Day” uncertainty persists, with markets concerned that the recently announced tariffs could significantly impact the U.S. economic outlook. As a result, this could severely limit the performance of equity indices like the S&P 500.
Bearish Channel
Since February 20, the SPX index has maintained consistent downward momentum, establishing a new bearish channel in the short term. The index has now broken below the key 5,400-point support level. However, the speed of the recent declines may have created an imbalance in market forces, which could pave the way for a bullish correction in upcoming sessions.
Divergence in Indicators
MACD: Both the MACD line and the signal line have shown higher lows in recent trading sessions, which contrasts with the lower lows in the SPX price, indicating a bullish divergence.
RSI: The RSI is showing a similar pattern, with the line forming higher lows while price continues to make lower lows. Additionally, the RSI is now approaching the 30 level, which is typically considered the oversold zone.
These divergence and oversold signals suggest that bearish momentum has accelerated sharply, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion. As the balance between buyers and sellers begins to stabilize, this may be an early indication that upward corrections could occur in the next few sessions.
Key Levels:
5,780 points – Distant resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. A return to this zone could mark the start of a new bullish phase, posing a threat to the current bearish channel.
5,530 points – Near resistance: This area corresponds to neutral levels seen in recent weeks. It may become a target zone for potential corrective upward moves.
5,388 points – Key support zone: This level matches the lowest prices since September 2024 and is where the price is currently consolidating. If the index breaks decisively below this level, it could lead to a more extended bearish channel in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Vanguard - “We are the invisible hand of Adam Smith” John BogleIf anyone ever thought of erecting a monument to the person who did the most for American investors — the choice would fall on John Bogle. These words are not from a promotional brochure but a quote from Warren Buffett himself.
Book summary
But most people don’t even know who Bogle is. And certainly don’t realize that he didn’t just “create index funds.” He built an invulnerable power machine disguised as client care.
📈 From a thesis to $10 trillion under management
Bogle’s story begins with an ordinary guy born during the Great Depression. Through poverty, scholarship-based education, and working from age 10 — he makes his way into Princeton, where he writes a thesis on a topic that would change the industry: "mutual funds."
Over the years, his philosophy turned into what we now know as "passive investing." From day one, the Vanguard he created operated on the principle: "maximum benefit to the investor, minimum — to the managers." No fees, no speculation, no marketing. And it worked. But here’s the paradox: ▶ Vanguard gave up profit for the mission.
▶ The world responded — investors were tired of the noise.
▶ As a result — "Vanguard grew into a monster capable of managing the economies of entire nations."
🧠 A revolutionary idea: a fund owned by investors
Bogle built a structure where "the fund owners are the investors themselves."
Sounds beautiful: no shareholders, no profit pressure — only long-term client interests. But then who de facto manages these trillions?
⚠️ Vanguard is not a public company.
⚠️ Its shares are not traded.
⚠️ The real ownership mechanism — a black box.
It’s the perfect system for... "invisible control." And this isn’t a conspiracy theory, but logic:
If you can’t find the ultimate beneficiary — it means they’re either too big, or hiding for a reason.
🕸️ The “Big Three” and the invisible hand effect
Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street — three funds that hold between 3% to 8% of shares in most of the world’s largest corporations. It seems small, but only 15–20% of shares are in free float.
❗ This gives the Big Three “real power”: from voting at meetings to influencing media narratives and climate policy.
📌 They own stakes in CNN, Fox, and Disney.
📌 Invest in oil companies that violate human rights.
📌 And at the same time — push the “green transition” agenda.
Conflict of interest? No. It’s “total control over both sides of the conflict.”
🤫 Why Vanguard is impossible to destroy
If you think Vanguard is just an investment fund, here are a few facts:
🔒 No company shares → can’t buy a controlling stake.
🔒 Over 400 legal entities → can’t file a single lawsuit.
🔒 Every investor essentially becomes a “co-owner” → responsibility is blurred.
🔒 All stakes split below 10% → bypass antitrust laws.
You can’t sue a ghost.
You can’t attack a network if you don’t know where its center is.
🧭 What’s next?
Today, Vanguard manages over $10 trillion, which is more than the GDP of Germany, India, and Brazil combined.
Though the fund’s founder passed away as “the conscience of Wall Street,” his creation became an "architecture of global control" that even the U.S. Federal Reserve couldn’t handle.
🎤 “We are the invisible hand of Adam Smith,” John Bogle once said.
A more detailed book review will follow below. I understand how important this is in our time and I appreciate it.
📘 General Concept of the Book:
The book is at once the autobiography of John Bogle, the story of the founding and development of Vanguard, and a manifesto of index investing philosophy. A runaway waiter, Princeton graduate, and "Wall Street rebel," Bogle creates Vanguard — a company that changed the investment world by making it more fair and accessible.
📑 Structure of the Book:
The book is divided into four parts:
Part I — The History of Vanguard.
Part II — The Evolution of Key Funds.
Part III — The Future of Investment Management.
Part IV — Personal Reflections, Philosophy, and Values of the Author.
💡 Key Ideas of the Book (Introductory Chapters, Preface):
- Index investing is the most important financial innovation of the 20th century.
- Passive management beats active managers in returns and costs.
- Vanguard’s mission is not to make money off investors, but to serve them.
- Criticism of Wall Street: high fees, conflicts of interest, short-term thinking.
- Financial revolution — a mass shift of investors from active to index funds.
🧠 Bogle's Values:
- Long-term thinking. Don’t give in to market “noise.”
- Honesty and transparency in investing.
- Minimal costs = maximum return for the investor.
- Fiduciary duty: protecting the client’s interest comes first.
📗 Part I: The History of Vanguard
🔹 Chapter 1: 1974 — The Prophecy
Context:
John Bogle is in a difficult position — he’s fired as head of Wellington Management Company.
During a trip to Los Angeles, he meets John Lovelace of American Funds, who warns: if you create a truly mutual investment company, you’ll destroy the industry.
Main Idea:
⚡ Bogle decides to go against the profit-driven industry and creates Vanguard — a company owned by investors, not managers.
Key Moments:
- Vanguard is founded in 1974 — in the middle of a crisis.
- The company has no external shareholders — all “profits” are returned to investors through lower fees.
- In 1975, the first index fund for individual investors is launched — a revolutionary idea, initially ridiculed as “Bogle’s madness.”
Important Quotes:
"Gross return before costs is market return. Net return after costs is lower. Therefore, to get the maximum, you must minimize costs."
– Bogle’s fundamental rule
🔹 Chapter 2: 1945–1965 — Background: Blair Academy, Princeton, Fortune, and Wellington
Early Life:
Bogle studies at Blair Academy on a scholarship, works as a waiter.
He enters Princeton. Struggles with his economics course, but…
In the library, he accidentally finds the Fortune article “Big Money in Boston” — about mutual funds.
Turning Point:
This article inspires Bogle to write his thesis:
“The Economic Role of the Investment Company”, where he argues:
- Funds should work for investors;
- Don’t expect them to beat the market;
- Costs must be minimized;
- Fund structure must be fair and transparent.
Career Start:
Work at Wellington Management (Philadelphia).
Starts from scratch, rising from junior analyst to president of the company.
Under Walter Morgan’s leadership, he learns the principles of discipline and serving investors.
✍️ Interim Summary
What’s important from these early chapters:
- Vanguard was born from the ruins of Bogle’s former career — an example of how failure can be the beginning of greatness.
- Already in college, Bogle saw the issue of conflicts of interest in the industry.
- His philosophy is idealism in action: don’t play guessing games — just invest in the market and reduce costs.
📘 Chapter 3: 1965–1974 — Rise and Fall
🚀 Appointed President of Wellington Management:
In 1965, at just 35 years old, John Bogle becomes president of Wellington.
He decides to modernize the business and bring in young star managers from Wall Street, especially from the firm Thorndike, Doran, Paine & Lewis.
⚠️ Risky Alliance:
Bogle makes a fatal mistake — he merges with the new management company without ensuring value alignment.
The new partners are focused on profit and short-term gains, not building a strong long-term foundation.
This leads to internal conflict, loss of trust, and poor fund performance.
💥 Dismissal:
In 1974, after a series of conflicts, the board removes Bogle.
He loses control of the company he built for nearly 25 years.
Bogle’s comment:
"I was fired, but I was still chairman of the Wellington mutual funds — and that turned out to be a lifeline."
📘 Chapter 4: 1974–1975 — The Birth of Vanguard
🧩 A Unique Legal Loophole:
Though Bogle was fired from the management company, he remained head of the Wellington Fund trustees — giving him the opportunity to build a new independent structure.
🛠 Creating Vanguard:
In December 1974, he launches The Vanguard Group — a company owned by the investors (shareholders) themselves.
Model: the fund belongs to the investors → the fund owns the management company → no outside profit, only cost recovery.
⚙️ "Vanguard" as a Symbol:
The name was inspired by Admiral Horatio Nelson’s ship — HMS Vanguard.
A symbol of leadership, courage, and moving against the tide.
Key Idea:
Vanguard would be the only truly mutual investment organization — a model where clients = owners.
📘 Chapter 5: 1975 — The First Index Fund
🤯 Revolution: The Indexing Approach
Bogle decides to create the first index mutual fund for retail investors.
Name: First Index Investment Trust (later — Vanguard 500 Index Fund).
Idea: invest in all S&P 500 stocks to reflect the market’s return instead of trying to beat it.
🪓 A Blow to the Industry:
The financial world reacts harshly:
- “Bogle’s madness”;
- “This is a failure”;
- “Who would want to just match the market?”
🔧 Humble Beginning:
The goal was to raise $150 million, but only $11 million was collected — tiny by industry standards.
But Bogle didn’t give up:
"It was a small step, but with a powerful message."
💡 Summary of Chapters 3–5: How Vanguard Was Built
🔑 Event 💬 Meaning
Loss of control at Wellington ----- Collapse of the old model, beginning of a new path
Creation of Vanguard------------- Innovative, investor-first structure
Launch of index fund--------------Start of the indexing revolution, Bogle’s core philosophy
📝 Quotes for Thought:
"All I did was apply common sense. I just said: Let’s leave the returns to the investors, not the managers." — John Bogle
"This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for. Lower costs = better results." — Bogle’s favorite saying, debunking “more is better”
📘 Chapter 6: 1976–1981 — The Survival Period
⏳ Tough Start:
After launching the index fund, Vanguard faces slow growth and constant skepticism.
For 83 straight months (nearly 7 years!), Vanguard sees net outflows — investors are hesitant to trust this new model.
🧱 Laying the Foundation:
Bogle and his team focus on:
- Transparency
- Lowering costs
- Investor education (they explain what it means to “stay the course”)
💬 The Core Dilemma:
"All investors want to beat the market. But no one wants to pay the price: high fees, taxes, risks. We offered an alternative — reliability, simplicity, and low cost."
📈 Small Wins:
Despite modest volume, Vanguard starts building a reputation as an “honest player.”
It becomes evident: investors using Vanguard achieve better long-term results than those chasing trendy funds.
📘 Chapter 7: 1982–1991 — Growth and Recognition
💡 The Power of Philosophy:
Bogle keeps repeating: “Stay the course” — don’t try to predict the market, don’t fall for fear and greed.
This message becomes especially powerful after the 1982 and 1987 market crises.
🏆 The First Fruits:
A slow but steady increase in assets begins.
Vanguard launches new index funds:
- Total Stock Market Index
- Bond Index
- International Index
📣 Educational Mission:
Bogle writes books, articles, gives interviews.
He isn’t just running a fund — he’s changing how people think about investing.
A community of followers emerges — the Bogleheads.
📊 Key Stats:
By 1991, Vanguard's assets reach around $130 billion.
Index funds begin receiving positive reviews from analysts, including Morningstar.
📘 Chapter 8: 1991–1999 — Industry Leadership
🚀 Explosive Growth:
In the 1990s, index funds go mainstream.
Investors realize that most active funds underperform the market — and they vote with their money for Vanguard.
🧰 Expanding the Product Line:
Vanguard introduces:
- Retirement funds
- Bond funds
- International and balanced funds
- Admiral Shares — low-cost funds for loyal investors
📢 Open Fight with the Industry:
Bogle continues to harshly criticize Wall Street:
- For greed, manipulation, and lack of transparency
- For prioritizing company profit over client interest
"The industry hates Vanguard because it proves you can be honest and still succeed."
⚠️ Internal Challenges:
In the late 1990s, Bogle’s health declines.
He passes leadership to Jack Brennan but retains influence on company strategy.
📊 Midpoint Summary (Chapters 6–8)
📅 Phase 📈 Essence
1976–1981 Quiet survival: building the model, fighting for trust
1982–1991 Slow growth: philosophy attracts investors
1991–1999 Recognition and leadership: indexing becomes dominant
💬 Bogle Quotes from These Chapters:
"Investing is not a business. It’s a service. Those who forget this lose everything."
"Every dollar spent on fees is a dollar lost to your future."
"Volatility is not the enemy. The real enemy is you, if you panic."
📘 Chapter 9: Leadership as a Calling
💡 A Leader ≠ A Manager:
Bogle contrasts a true leader with just an efficient executive.
A real leader:
- Puts others’ interests above their own
- Has a moral compass, not just KPIs
- Makes hard, unpopular decisions
🛤 His Leadership Style:
"Don’t ask others to do what you wouldn’t do yourself."
"Always explain why — people follow meaning, not orders."
He genuinely believes Vanguard should be more than a successful business — it should be a force for good in the market.
"Leadership is loyalty to an idea bigger than yourself."
🔄 Feedback Principle:
Bogle constantly interacts with clients, employees, and journalists.
He never isolates himself in an “ivory tower” — he believes this openness is a leader’s true strength.
📘 Chapter 10: Client Service — Vanguard’s Mission
🧭 The Mission:
"Maximize investor returns — not company profits."
Vanguard is built around fiduciary responsibility: every decision must pass the test — is this in the investor’s best interest or not?
🧾 How It’s Implemented:
- Fees below market average → investors keep more
- No ads for “hot” funds → Vanguard sells stability, not trends
- No sales commissions → no one profits off pushing funds to clients
- Ethical code — “Don’t do anything you wouldn’t want on the front page of the newspaper.”
"We’re not trying to be the best for Wall Street. We’re trying to be the best for you."
📘 Chapter 11: The Market Should Serve Society
📉 Critique of Modern Wall Street:
Bogle argues that finance has drifted from its original purpose.
Investing has turned into trading.
The investor became a cash cow, not a partner.
"The market now serves itself — and we’re still paying the price."
🌱 What the System Should Look Like:
- Companies should serve society
- Investors should be owners, not speculators
- Funds should be transparent, accountable, and honest
📢 Call for Reform:
Bogle calls for a rethinking of finance:
- Restore the human element
- Make mission more important than profit
- Protect long-term interests of millions of ordinary investors
"If we want capitalism with a human face, we must return finance to serving society."
📊 Summary of Chapters 9–11: Bogle's Philosophy
📌 Direction------------💬 Essence
Leadership-------------Morality, leading by example, purpose-driven
Business---------------First and foremost — service to the client
Financial System-------Must work for society, not just for profit of the few
✨ Inspirational Quotes:
"The most important thing you can invest is not money — it’s your conscience."
"Honesty in business is not a competitive edge. It’s a duty."
"I’m not against capitalism. I’m against capitalism without morals."
📘 Chapter 12: The Future of Investing — Where the Industry Is Headed
🌐 Bogle sees three main trends:
Victory of Passive Investing:
- Index funds continue to displace active management
- Their share of assets under management is growing rapidly
- More investors are realizing the power of simplicity
Fee Pressure:
- Fees are approaching zero (some funds are effectively free)
- Winners: investors. Losers: traditional management companies
The Role of Technology:
- Rise of robo-advisors (automated investment advisors)
- But Bogle warns: Technology without philosophy is just a tool, not a solution
🚨 Threat #1 — Hyperfinancialization:
"The market is turning into a casino. And the fewer the players, the more the house wins."
Bogle reminds us: the goal of investing is owning businesses — not gambling.
The higher the turnover, the more you lose on fees and taxes.
📘 Chapter 13: The Power of Indexing — Threat or Blessing?
📈 Strength in Scale:
The biggest index providers (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street) own large shares in nearly all companies in the indexes.
This raises the issue of concentrated power — is too much influence in too few hands?
⚖️ The Indexing Paradox:
Index funds don’t actively vote on corporate governance issues.
So the more power they hold, the less oversight there is over company management.
📣 Bogle’s Proposals:
- Establish a code of conduct for index providers
- Require them to vote in investors’ interests
- Mandate transparency in how they use their voting power
"We fought for the democratization of investing. We cannot let it end in a new monarchy."
📘 Chapter 14: Personal Reflections — On Life, Mission, and Faith
🧬 Personal and Eternal:
Bogle shares his core life principles:
- To serve, not to own
- To leave a mark, not accumulate
- To do what’s right, not what’s profitable
He talks about his battle with heart disease — both as a personal journey and a metaphor for resisting the system.
🙏 Gratitude:
He dedicates the book to his family, colleagues, and investors.
Emphasizes: every day is a chance to be useful.
"I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. My career isn’t a triumph — it’s a thank you to fate for the chance to be heard."
📊 Summary of Chapters 12–14: Looking Ahead and Within
📌 Theme-----------------💬 Essence
Future of Investing---------Indexing is the new standard, but needs responsible stewardship
Concentration of Power----Index giants must be accountable to society
Personal Legacy-----------Life is about service, honesty, and setting an example
💬 Final Inspirational Quotes:
"Life isn’t about making more money. It’s about doing more good."
"One day, someone will say: ‘Bogle was stubborn. He never compromised his conscience.’ That will be the best reward."
🧩 Bogle’s Principle Summary (from the book):
- Lower costs — pay less = keep more
- Don’t chase returns — be realistic
- Be a long-term investor — ignore market noise
- Invest broadly, passively, regularly
- Don’t try to beat the market — own the market
- Focus on goals, not trends
- Finance = service. Not a business for profit
💡 Investment Philosophy
🟨 “This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for.”
🟨 “Don’t try to beat the market. Just own it.”
🟨 “In the stock market, investors are rewarded for patience and punished for frenzy.”
🟨 “Gross return minus costs = market return. After costs — less. So: reduce costs — and you win.”
🟨 “The problem isn’t that investors know too little. The problem is they know too much of what doesn’t matter.”
🧭 Principles & Morality
🟩 “Investing is not a business. It’s a service.”
🟩 “Honesty isn’t a strategy. It’s an obligation.”
🟩 “The goal of Vanguard isn’t to make more, but to return to the investor what’s rightfully theirs.”
🟩 “If your investments keep you up at night, change them. Or better — change yourself.”
🧠 On Leadership and Mission
🔷 “A leader isn’t the one in front. It’s the one responsible for the rest.”
🔷 “Respect isn’t bought. It’s earned when you do what’s right, even if it’s unpopular.”
🔷 “We didn’t build Vanguard for glory. We built it to leave something better than what was.”
💬 On the Market and Industry
🔴 “Today's stock market isn’t a place for investors. It’s a casino with a shiny sign.”
🔴 “We’re not against capital. We’re against capitalism without a conscience.”
🔴 “The people selling investments always say they can pick the best. But what if the best is just paying less?”
❤️ On Life and Legacy
💠 “I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. It’s not my victory — it’s gratitude for the chance to serve.”
💠 “Every day is a chance to do something not for yourself.”
💠 “You can measure success with money. Or with a conscience, you don’t have to justify.”
It was a lot of work!
Click to like + Write in the comments your favorite books about the financial market
Best regards, EXCAVO
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S&P500 Last time it made that bottom was 18 months ago.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a multi year Channel Up that goes back to October 2022.
The index almost hit the Channel bottom this week and immediately we see a rebound attempt.
It may be under the 1week MA50 but this is not disastrous as the patterns last bottom was formed exactly under it on October 23rd 2023, 18 months ago.
On top of that, the 1week RSI was exactly where it is now, on the 40.00 Support, bearish enough to call for a long term buy.
In addition, the both bearish waved leading to both bottoms were almost -11%. This high symmetry potential suggests that the bullish wave that will follow may be of a similar +28.34% rise.
This is a unique opportunity to buy and target 7000.
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Liberation morningMarkets did sell off last night and the VIX did start breaking up, so I believe another leg down is upon us. However, the chance for a C wave rally from the lows is possible, so caution is necessary.
US500: Trend Shift - Potential Break of Key Support LevelsThis analysis focuses on the US500 chart, a representation of the S&P 500 index, a key indicator of the US stock market's performance. The chart displays price action over a 4-hour timeframe, offering a medium-term perspective. The analysis aims to identify potential support levels and assess the likelihood of further bearish movement.
2. Key Findings and Supporting Evidence:
Bearish Trend: The chart clearly shows a prevailing downtrend. The price has been making lower highs and lower lows, signifying strong selling pressure.
Breakdown of Rising Wedge: A rising wedge pattern, often considered a bearish reversal pattern, is visible between March 11th and March 27th. The subsequent breakdown from this wedge has confirmed the bearish sentiment and suggests a continuation of the downtrend.
Potential Support Levels: The chart highlights three potential support levels:
5500 (Current Level): The price is currently hovering around this level. A break below this level could trigger further selling.
5504.2 (First Target): This level is marked as the first potential target for the bearish move.
5441.3 (Second Target): This level represents a more significant support and a deeper potential target.
Trading Strategy Indication: The chart suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, with entry around the current level (5500) and targets at the identified support levels. The stop-loss is placed above the recent high to manage risk.
High Volatility: The sharp price swings and the length of the red (bearish) candles indicate high volatility, suggesting strong momentum behind the downtrend.
3. Relevant Data and Statistics (Inferred):
Timeframe: 4-hour chart.
Index: US500 (S&P 500 equivalent).
Recent High: Approximately 5800.
Recent Low: Approximately 5486.7.
Potential Support Levels: 5500, 5504.2, 5441.3.
4. Discussion of Implications and Potential Future Trends:
Market Sentiment: The breakdown from the rising wedge and the continued bearish momentum suggest a shift in market sentiment towards increased pessimism.
Economic Factors: The downtrend could be influenced by various economic factors, such as rising interest rates, inflation concerns, or geopolitical uncertainties.
Risk Management: Traders should exercise caution and implement proper risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders, due to the high volatility.
Potential for Rebound: While the current trend is bearish, it's essential to acknowledge the possibility of a rebound or consolidation at the support levels.
Stocks jittery as markets await tariffs Volatility was again the name of the game in equity markets as investors braced for President Donald Trump’s impending tariff announcement, which promises to reshape global trade dynamics. With uncertainty swirling around the scope and impact of his so-called reciprocal tariffs, there remains little consensus on how markets will react as the final deliberations unfold.
A few headlines that have come out:
Trump administration official has confirmed that Amazon has put in a bid to buy TikTok
Tesla Inc. jumped 5% on hopes Elon Musk will refocus on the carmaker as a news report suggested his time as a top adviser to Trump may end soon.
US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% -- Sky News
The bands will differ by both country and industry depending on how the White House views barriers to trade.
CNBC: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING REVOCATION OF TARIFF EXEMPTIONS FOR CHEAP SHIPMENTS FROM CHINA - SOURCE
Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight - Reuters
The key resistance area to watch today is between 5670 to 5695 - as shaded in yellow on the chart. This zone was previously support and has now turned into a bit of resistance, capping today's gains. Will the selling pressure resume from here or do we go back above it?
It all depends on severity of tariffs.
In the event we go lower, then the area between 5500 to 5550 is the key support zone to watch.
In the event the market go higher, and break through 5670 to 5695 zone, then the 200-day average and prior resistance near 5770-5787 will come into focus next.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
S&P to find buyers at current market price?US500 - Intraday
Closed the day little net changed.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Immediate signals are hard to interpret.
Bespoke resistance is located at 5853.
Bespoke support is located at 5536.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
We look to Buy at 5609 (stop at 5572)
Our profit targets will be 5719 and 5853
Resistance: 5719 / 5737 / 5853
Support: 5616 / 5607 / 5536
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S&P500: Recovery has started and the next stop is the 1D MA50.S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.213, MACD = -61.280, ADX = 30.163) as it's recovered from Friday's bearish sentiment and already crossed above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This rebound made Monday's low a Double Bottom and since the 1D RSI is on a HL bullish divergence, we expect a strong 1 month rally to start. The first target is the 1D MA50 slightly over the 0.5 Fib mark (TP1 = 5,835) and after a small correction, the 0.786 Fib (TP2 = 6,000), which is also the top of the 5 month Bull Flag.
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S&P entering rough path in 2025 It seems S&P is going through a soft bounce back after selloff towards 10W MA around 58-5900 levels. This could be the strong rejection leading to summer lows around 52-5300 range .
If Macro is promising could resume bull run by providing good entry otherwise a recovery towards 5600 which eventually sees 4800 or 2021 ATH making a long range for 4-5 years providing 2026 to reach towards 5800 level by end of December 2026 and giving a new ATH only in 2027 .
SPX weekly sell off confirmedBetter have some cash in hand, if SPX drop more, BTC will drop even more.
SPX Targets 5400 - 5150 - 4750Hi Traders,
We so far we are following the pattern of 2022... If so we should be beginning the next down leg and looks like with Trump announcing auto Tarrifs today I expect it begins now instead of waiting till April 2, Liberation day, as Trump calls it. He is the default EW indicator which appears to capture the levels I was looking at using other TA. This won't be a sudden drop but I expect some if not all these levels to be hit once all is said and done. The market needs to become a lot cheaper for people to want to invest into a Tariff type environment. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out with strong Tariffs on April 2 that we end up going into a recession by summer. The only way to get lower rates like trump wants is to tank the market which I think he is ok with to do. Lets see how this plays out.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5830.Colleagues, the previous forecast is not canceled, but I decided to update it a bit in the form of a new forecast. I have set the target a little closer, so that I don't have to wait too long.
I believe that the price will continue its upward movement and will reach the area of 5830. It is quite possible that the price will correct to the area of 5597, completing the wave “2” of small order.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPX & SPX BEAR FLAG ALERT Did we just set up for a Bear Flag rejection for GDP tomorrow? At the 200DMA & Daily 35EMA
Let's close a little bit up from here on the day and then let's go!!
Aggressive 0 DTE PUT spreadPlaying the bounce / recovery on a big drop for SPX today, short term 0 DTE.
-5400 +5395 15% gain in premium
SPX: You Need To PrepareLast time I posted on SPX I said that I was sounding the Alarm
I'm going to reiterate that you need to prepare
No fear mongering, no fancy Elliott Wave Charts and no History Lessons in economics
Lets just ask ourselves some really simple questions:
If you lost your job today, how easy do you think it would be to find replacement employment that could maintain your current lifestyle?
How many months of emergency savings do you have?
What is your level of credit card/ debt in general and are you paying more than the minimum payment?
Do you want to own a home? How hopeful are you about your chances to own in the near future?
Are you saving for retirement? No really are you saving..be honest. If not, why?
How happy, hopeful, worried, sad are you? Be honest
And finally:
Do you believe everything will be ok financially for you 10/20 years from now? Be honest
Now ask yourself: What do I have to do so that I can move from believing/not believing to KNOWING that things will be ok?
SPX: tariffs combined with inflationInflation expectations are on the rise again in the US. As markets are closely watching developments with trade tariffs, in combination with increasing inflation, the sentiment ended the week in a red zone. During the week, the S&P 500 was struggling to sustain a bit of positive sentiment, however, Friday's trading session brought back significant sell off of stocks. The week started at 5.780, but it ended at 5.580, losing 1,97% on Friday. In the last six weeks, the index spent five weeks in negative territory.
Tech companies were the ones that dragged the rest of the market to the downside. META and Amazon were down by 4,3%, Apple dropped by 2,66%, Tesla lost 3,51% in value. Trade tariffs are still a cloud which brings high uncertainty to the market. News reported that both Canada and the European Union are considering reciprocal measures as a response to the imposed US tariffs. The US Administration announced last week potential 25% tariffs on all car imports to the US. As long as this kind of trade war is in the open space, it could not be expected that the market would consolidate and stabilize. In this sense, further high volatility might be expected. In the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data for March will be posted, so this would be a day to watch.
