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US 500 (SPI) / US DollarUS 500 (SPI) / US DollarUS 500 (SPI) / US Dollar

US 500 (SPI) / US Dollar

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SPIUSD trade ideas

S&P500: Recovery mode activated. Next stop 6,200.S&P500 turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.702, MACD = 16.670, ADX = 24.717) as it rebounded near the 1D MA100, which happened to be just under the bottom of the long term Channel Up and has recovered more than 50% of last week's correction. In the meantime, the 1D RSI is making a bullish reversal idential to the last two bottoms. The two prior bullish waves of the Channel Up topped on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our target (TP = 6,200). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
Critical Levels in S&P 500 Index this weekNavigating the S&P 500: What to Watch This Christmas Week If you look at the S&P 500's technical chart, you'll notice something intriguing: Friday's rebound wasn't just any rebound — it came with a surge in volume. The Index is flirting with its 50-day Moving Average, a key indicator with investors on edge. As long as macroeconomic data doesn’t throw any curveballs, there's a promising outlook for a festive rally in the stock market this Christmas week. My eyes are on the 6,000 mark for the SPX as a pivotal point. If the momentum continues, we might even see it touch 6,100, which could be the ceiling for this bullish run.
SP:SPX
by IrinaTK
1
Rate Cut Disappoints: Stocks and Gold Experience Sharp Declines◉ Abstract On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%, marking its third cut in a row. However, the Fed also said it might not cut rates much more in the future because it expects the economy to grow stronger and inflation to continue. This cautious message worried investors, causing a sharp drop in the stock market. The S&P 500 fell about 2.96%, its biggest one-day loss since August. Gold prices also dropped by around 1.6%. The declines in both stocks and gold show that investors are feeling uncertain about the economy and are rethinking their investments based on the Fed's outlook. Continue reading the full article: ◉ Introduction On December 18, 2024, both the S&P 500 and gold experienced significant declines, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and market reactions to economic forecasts. ◉ Federal Reserve's Decision ● The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%. This is typically a positive move for equities and commodities like gold. ● However, the Fed signalled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, expecting stronger economic growth and persistent inflation. ● This cautious outlook raised concerns about the possibility of limited future rate cuts, which spooked investors. ◉ Market Reactions 1. Stock Market Decline ● The S&P 500 fell by approximately 2.96%, marking its largest single-day percentage drop since August 5th. ● The market's reaction reflected a realization that previous optimistic expectations about aggressive rate cuts were misplaced. 2. Gold's Decline ● Gold prices dropped sharply, with an intraday decline of about 1.6%. ● Gold, while a safe-haven asset, is less desirable in a rising rate environment due to increased opportunity costs. ● With the Fed's indication of fewer future rate cuts, investors shifted away from gold. ◉ Overall Market Sentiment The simultaneous decline in both equities and gold can be attributed to a broader market sentiment that reacted negatively to the Fed's cautious outlook on inflation and growth prospects. This created a risk-off environment where investors were uncertain about both stock valuations and commodity holdings.
SP:SPX
by NaranjCapital
1
S&P 500 Holding Within Ascending ChannelChart Analysis: The S&P 500 Index remains firmly within its ascending channel (green zone), with the current price rebounding from the channel's midline near 6,006.5. The bullish structure remains intact, supported by key moving averages. 1️⃣ Ascending Channel: Price continues to respect the channel boundaries, with recent consolidation near the midline and potential for further upside toward the upper boundary. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Positioned at 5,938.1, acting as immediate support and reinforcing the bullish short-term trend. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 5,547.4, providing robust long-term support for the broader trend. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 52.74, indicating neutral momentum and room for price movement in either direction. MACD: Positive but flattening, suggesting momentum remains supportive of the uptrend, though caution is warranted. What to Watch: A continued bounce higher could target the channel's upper boundary near 6,100–6,150, while a failure to hold above the 50-day SMA could shift focus to the lower boundary near 5,800. Momentum signals from the RSI and MACD will be crucial in determining whether the current bounce has the strength to sustain a move higher. The S&P 500 remains structurally bullish within its ascending channel, with key support and resistance levels offering clear guidance for traders. -MW
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 5,869.57 1st Support: 5,707.08 1st Resistance: 6,093.53 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
Planning SPX Longs into A Break Lower SPX made the top off the 2.61 and today on the news of rate cuts it slammed to the implied target level for that. Hit targets on a lot of my shorts today. Have some extremely deep OTMs still running but these are a nominal part of my risk and just there to benefit from a super rejection of the macro 4.23 fib. In terms of nearer term swing assessment, we're now getting close to the level I think we'd be likely to find support if this is a bull move that is just having a flash crash correction. Planning to start picking up longs if we spike down closer to 5800. Will likely buy deep OTM calls at this price if we hit it. Broadly speaking risk off on my positions at the moment. Banked most of my profits. Don't plan to do much trading the rest of the year. Do plan to do a lot of trade plan prepping for decision at the macro inflection point. Whatever way it goes, my hypothesis is we're going to see faster and faster markets going forward. Great times to be a trader. I want to make sure I'm prepped to benefit from any of the "Known" outcomes that fit inside my strats.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could rise to the 38.3% Fibonacci resistance. Pivot: 5,868.52 1st Support: 5,788.39 1st Resistance: 5,930.95 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
S&P500 5 month Channel Up bottomed. Bullish reversal started.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up since the August 5th bottom. Wednesday's Fed fueled correction crossed under the 1day MA50 but stabilized yesterday and today found support over the 1day MA100 and rebounded. This low is very close to the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1day MA100 was the level that supported the early September pull back. The 1day RSI is also reversing, and the 3 times it posted a similar pattern inside the Channel Up, it was a bottom. Buy and target 6200 (+7.10% from the bottom). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
Futures Steady After Wall Street Slump on Fed Rate Cut OutlookFutures Steady After Wall Street Declines on Fed's View of Fewer Rate Cuts U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve's revised projections, which include fewer-than-expected interest rate cuts and elevated inflation expectations for next year. These updates caused a significant sell-off on Wall Street the day before. On Wednesday, the Fed announced its forecast of only two 25 basis point (bps) rate cuts in 2024, halving its previous projection from September. The central bank also raised inflation expectations for the early months of the incoming administration. These adjustments triggered the steepest daily declines in the three major U.S. stock indices since August. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline of more than 3.5% due to the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce interest rates by only 25 bps. This decision created uncertainty and weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Today, the U.S. GDP report is a key event that could significantly impact the market. The GDP growth rate is projected to decline by 2.8% compared to the previous period. If the GDP data comes in below 2.8%, the market may turn bullish, potentially reaching 5971. If the GDP data exceeds 2.8%, the bearish trend could continue, with the S&P 500 targeting levels of 5885 and 5863. Key Levels Pivot Point: 5932 Resistance Levels: 5971, 5988, 6020 Support Levels: 5885, 5863, 5837 Trend Outlook Downward Trend: Likely to persist if the price remains below 5932. Upward Trend: Potential recovery if the price breaks above 5932.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SP50 / Bullish Momentum and Key Levels to WatchS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price retested the bearish correction we mentioned earlier, then pushed upward again and continued toward 6022. The S&P 500 has a bullish momentum aiming for 6022. To confirm the bullish area toward 6099, a 4-hour candle should close above 6022. Otherwise, as long as the price trades below 6022, it will likely oscillate between 6022 and 5971 until a breakout occurs. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5995 Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6099 Support Levels: 5971, 5936, 5919 Trend Outlook: Consolidation: Between 6022 and 5971 Bullish Trend: Above 6022
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
SP500 Weekly Trade Idea – Valid only with Close below 5977.8The S&P 500 has been on a stellar rally this year, rewarding long-term investors who bought and held through market turbulence. However, the current technical and macroeconomic setup suggests a possible correction could be on the horizon. Here’s how to approach it strategically. 🛠️ Technical Analysis from the Chart: 1️⃣ **Resistance Zone (6025-6050):** - The index is facing strong resistance in this red zone, indicating a potential **stall in bullish momentum**. Failure to break through this level increases the likelihood of a pullback. 2️⃣ Critical Support Levels: - **5690-5628 Zone:** First significant demand zone. A break below could trigger deeper corrections. - **5395-5365 Zone:** Key structural support from previous accumulation. - Long-term potential target near **4500**, aligning with historical correction structures. 3️⃣ Weekly Close Watch (5977.8): - A **close below 5977.8** could confirm the start of a correction, likely forming a 3-to-5 wave structure typical of corrective phases. 🌍 Macro Context – Inflation and Valuations: - Inflation Data: - In **March 2020**, inflation was at **1.5%**, and stimulus packages helped buoy the market. - By **March 2021**, inflation climbed to **2.6%**, reflecting economic recovery and stimulus impacts. - November 2024 inflation** sits at **2.7%**, signaling a moderating trend but with base effects and monetary policies still in play. - Market Valuations: - The **Buffett Indicator** (Market Cap to GDP ratio) shows the market remains significantly overvalued. This aligns with Warren Buffett’s recent positioning, where **25% of his portfolio is in cash**, waiting for better buying opportunities. 💡 Trade Idea: 📉 Prepare for the Correction: - A correction to the **4500 level** would represent a compelling buying opportunity for long-term investors. - Avoid shorting the market; instead, focus on cash preservation and building a watchlist of fundamentally strong companies. 📊 Long-Term Strategy: - Stick to Warren Buffett’s principle: **"Be greedy when others are fearful."** - Utilize cash reserves to capitalize on discounted prices during market panic. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: - Resistance: **6025-6050 - Supports: **5690-5628**, **5395-5365**, and long-term 4500. 🚀 Optimistic Outlook: Corrections are **opportunities, not threats**. They allow investors to buy quality assets at a discount and position themselves for the next bull cycle. "Price is what you pay; value is what you get." – Warren Buffett 🐂✨ Let volatility work in your favor! 🌟
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Mike_SnD
Year 2025 and Beyond: Where to Place Your Bets?S&P 500: US indices may continue their upward trend until the first quarter of 2025. The ultimate target appears to be above 6300, where they may peak and begin a significant correction. A global stock sell-off could potentially trigger a stock market crash similar to that of 2008. India's Nifty 50: India's Nifty 50 may find support around the 23,000–22,700 range and resume its upward movement in the final fifth wave, targeting a peak near 29,000. The Nifty 50 is likely to follow a trend similar to the S&P 500. The bullish cycle that began in 2009 is expected to conclude near the 29,000 level. Subsequently, a significant sell-off in Indian indices could trigger a major bear market, potentially erasing up to 50% of market capitalization from its peak. Gold: Gold may continue its consolidation for another month or two. A final surge toward the $3,000–$3,100 range is expected to mark the end of the rally that began in December 2015 at the $1,050 level. However, the bear market in equities is unlikely to spare even the perceived safe haven, leading to a pullback in gold prices as well. Brent Crude: Since March 2020, Brent crude experienced a remarkable rise, surging from $15 per barrel to $139 per barrel by March 2022. Over the past 33 months, it has already corrected by more than 47%. Brent crude is still expected to decline further, potentially reaching $50 per barrel within the next 3 to 6 months. However, the current inflationary trend could drive Brent prices beyond $160 per barrel later in 2025, before eventually succumbing to a deflationary trend that may persist for several years. US Dollar Index: The US Dollar Index peaked at around 114 in September 2022. Since then, it declined to 100 by July 2023 before starting to rise again in a corrective A-B-C pattern, forming part of a larger (A)-(B)-(C) decline. The Wave C of (B) is expected to conclude near 109, followed by another decline toward 98 by the first half of 2025. However, a renewed bullish trend in the US Dollar Index could reinforce the "Cash is King" narrative during a global equity market downturn. USD/INR: The bullish trend in USD/INR, which began in January 2008 at the 39 level, has seen the Indian Rupee weaken by over 60% against the US Dollar over the past 17 years. In the short term, USD/INR may peak around 86. However, the Rupee is likely to weaken further, reaching 90 against the US Dollar by the second quarter of 2025. US Govt. 10 years bond yield: The long-term yield on U.S. Government 10-year bond's yield indicates rising interest rates for this decade. In the short term, the yield may ease to 3%-2.6% by the second quarter of 2025. However, fears of a U.S. Government default could push the yield to 10% or higher over the next couple of years. The "Bond Ghost," along with a global equity rout, may haunt investors again in 2025-2026. Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin's bullish trend may continue until the first quarter of 2025, albeit at a slower pace. BTC still has the potential to reach around $115k-$120k, concluding the bullish run that began in November 2022 from the level of $15,500. Over the past decade and a half, BTC has significantly outpaced any other asset class globally. However, global risk aversion, which may start with an initial global equity market sell-off, could pause Bitcoin's bullish journey for the rest of 2025. Before the end of 2025, BTC might lose up to 50% of its value from its peak. In the longer run, however, BTC has the potential to become the most valuable asset class globally, even after experiencing a 50% erosion in its value.
SP:SPX
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL