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SPX: on a tricky pathDuring the previous two weeks, the US equity market went through a short term correction, amid investors fears that the Fed might halt further cuts of interest rates during the course of this year, due to stronger than expected jobs market and potential surge in inflation in the US. The December inflation figures were posted during the previous week, which showed that the inflation in the US was held below market expectations, which brought back some optimism among investors. The S&P 500 recovered from losses, and ended the week at the level of 5.996. However, the question still remains if the index took a path toward the upside, or is this only a short term optimism? An inauguration of the new US Administration is scheduled for January 20th, where the markets will closely watch what measures will be actually taken within the first week, from all the promises from the pre-election period. The most challenging move is the one related to trade tariffs with China, which might bring some negative impact to the US economy. In this sense, Monday will be a day to watch during the week ahead. For one more week, tech stocks were in the focus of market attention during the previous week. Tesla stocks gained over 3% for the week, followed by other big tech companies and the semiconductor industry. The only stock that is still struggling to regain market cap is Apple, whose shares were hit by news that Apple is losing market share in China due to strong competition from local smartphone producers. Banking sector was also closely watched, as they posted quarterly results. As their earnings were higher from expectations, the stocks of major US banks gained significantly within the week. Goldman Sachs and CITI Group were traded higher by roughly 12%, while JPMorgan was traded higher by 8%. For the week ahead, Monday is the day to watch. After the President-elect won the US elections in November, the market reacted in a positive manner. Whether this optimism will continue to hold after his inauguration is to be seen during the week ahead.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
US Investors Focus on Earnings and S&P 500 OutlookUS Equity Investors Focus on Corporate Earnings and Policy Announcements US equity investors are set to focus on major corporate earnings this week while also keeping an eye on potential trade policy announcements from the Trump administration and developments in macroeconomic data. S&P 500 Analysis The S&P 500 price continues to exhibit bullish momentum, supported by strong buying pressure and robust fourth-quarter earnings results. There is potential for a corrective move toward 6000, which could act as a springboard for a further rally. If the price pushes higher, it may target 6051, and a sustained move above this level could see it test 6099. A 4-hour candle close above 6099 would strengthen the bullish case. To turn bearish, the price must break below 6000 and achieve a 4-hour candle close below 5969. Key Levels Pivot Point: 6020 Resistance Levels: 6051, 6099, 6143 Support Levels: 6000, 5969, 5937 Trend Outlook The trend remains bullish while the price stays above 6020 and 6000. A break below these levels could indicate a bearish shift. Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
SPX: yep, ATH againThe inauguration of the new-old US President was in the spotlight of markets during the previous week. As there were no changes with respect to the pre-election promises, the markets continued to react positively for the rest of the week, bringing the S&P 500 to a new historically highest level. The level of 6.122 is a new historical point. Friday's trading session brought some profit-taking moments, where the index ended the week at the level of 6.101. The short reversal was mostly driven by tech companies, where Nvidia slipped by 3% to the downside. Tesla followed by 1% dip. Regardless of positive sentiment in an after-inauguration period, the fear of tariffs still holds on the market. Investors do not perceive such a move, especially with China, in a fear that increased import prices might bring back inflation in the US. Depending on the level of tariffs, this further might imply that the Fed could be in position to hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time, which in the end, might impact the US growth for this year. This is why mentioning tariffs in public by the new US administration will always imply some contraction of markets in the coming period, which means increased volatility. Another moment which is important is the US President's address at the business forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he noted that he will request a drop in interest rates, immediately. It is unclear how Fed Chair Powell and FOMC members will perceive such rhetoric, and intrusion of the US President into US monetary policy. Certainly, this will be one of the questions which will be addressed in an after-the meeting speech of the Fed Chair Powell, in the week ahead. Overall, the week ahead will bring PCE data, Fed's interest rate decision, overview of macroeconomic data, and address of Fed Chair Powell. At the same time, big tech earnings are expected to be posted, so this could be a promise of another challenging and volatile week on financial markets.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPX500 to find a top?US500 - 24h expiry Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. Previous resistance located at 6102. A 5 wave bullish count has been completed at 6107. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade. We look to Sell at 6102 (stop at 6147) Our profit targets will be 6003 and 5955 Resistance: 6102 / 6107 / 6179 Support: 6003 / 5955 / 5886 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
Stock Market Show Relative Initial Calm After Trump InaugurationFollowing the inauguration of Donald Trump and the observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, U.S. stock markets resumed activity with a positive tone, as the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% at the start of the session. This initial optimism is supported by the relative calm that followed the first day of operations under the new administration. Although the president reiterated his intention to reform the trade system to “protect Americans” and threatened tariffs and duties on foreign countries, later making specific references to Mexico and Canada with a potential 25% tariff starting in February, the absence of concrete measures created a sense of tranquility in the markets. This lack of immediate action, contrasting with prior rhetoric, has been a key factor for stabilization. The initial moderation in implementing trade measures, compared to the campaign tone, has injected caution and optimism into the markets. This pause allows investors to carefully assess future economic directives. This respite is also reflected in the fixed-income market. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond have declined, dropping below the 4.6% threshold after hitting a multi-year high of 4.8% on January 14. This decline in yields supports risk-taking in other assets, fueling optimism in the equity market. However, it is crucial to remain cautious. While the absence of drastic initial measures has calmed markets, uncertainties surrounding trade policies are likely to resurface in the future. Potential trade moves and their impact on inflation remain a risk factor to closely monitor. It is too early to celebrate a definitive victory on the trade front. Tensions are highly likely to reignite and generate market volatility. The key will be to observe the evolution of negotiations and the actual implementation of announced policies. Looking ahead, attention will begin to shift to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Investors will be particularly attentive to any indications providing clarity on the stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed), especially following the economic optimism that characterized the early weeks of January. Recent inflationary economic data, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed positive surprises, have helped to relatively moderate expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy. The FOMC meeting will be crucial to understanding the Fed’s view on the current state of the economy and its future outlook. Any signals regarding the direction of interest rates, as is customary, will have a significant impact on the markets. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 successfully achieved our predefined target of Outer Index Rally, 6123, corresponding to the Key Resistance established at 6090. The market is currently exhibiting a phase of consolidation, as the bullish trend appears to be transiently suspended following the conclusion of the outer index rally. It is, however, essential to acknowledge that the absence of a significant corrective pullback may facilitate the re-initiation of a bullish trajectory toward additional rally targets. Such a development would position the market advantageously for the forthcoming phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Trump vs. Fed: USD down, S&P upDuring his presidential campaign, Donald Trump suggested he should have influence over interest rate decisions.  Now, the US dollar has weakened, and the S&P 500 has reached record highs as Trump publicly demanded that the Federal Reserve lower interest rates.   Although Trump doesn't have the power to overrule the Federal Reserve, his unconventional politicking means he might be able to find a way to push through his agenda. These remarks come just days before the Fed’s upcoming two-day policy meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday with an interest rate decision. However, markets are pricing in almost no chance of a further cut to the benchmark borrowing rate.  Additionally, Trump stated he would ask Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, which caused crude oil prices to decline. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.        
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do? The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets. What Is the January Effect? The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks. The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years. At its core, the January effect reflects a combination of behavioural, tax-related, and institutional factors. Broadly speaking, the phenomenon is linked to a surge in buying activity at the start of the year. After December, which often sees tax-loss selling as traders offload poorly performing stocks to reduce taxable gains, January brings renewed buying pressure as these funds are reinvested. Additionally, optimism about the new year and fresh portfolio allocations can amplify this trend. While the January effect was more pronounced in earlier decades, changes in trading patterns and technology have made it less consistent. Yet, it still draws attention, particularly from traders looking for seasonal trends in the market. Historical Performance and Data Studies have provided empirical support for the stock market’s January effect. For instance, research by Rozeff and Kinney in a 1976 study analysed data from 1904 to 1974 and found that average stock returns in January were significantly higher than in other months. Additionally, a study by Salomon Smith Barney observed that from 1972 to 2002, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in January stock market history by an average of 0.82%. However, the prominence of the January effect has diminished in recent decades. Some studies indicate that while January has occasionally shown strong performance, it is not consistently the well-performing month. This decline may be attributed to increased market efficiency and the widespread awareness of the effect, leading investors to adjust their strategies accordingly. Some believe that “as January, so goes the year.” However, Fidelity analysis of the FTSE 100 index from its inception in 1984 reveals mixed results. Out of 22 years when the index rose in January, it continued to produce positive returns for the remainder of the year on 16 occasions. Conversely, in the 18 years when January returns were negative, the index still gained in 11 of those years. Check how small-cap stocks behave compared to market leaders. Factors Driving the January Effect on Stocks The January effect is often attributed to a mix of behavioural, institutional, and tax-related factors that create a unique environment for stock market activity at the start of the year. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind this phenomenon: Tax-Loss Selling At the end of the calendar year, many traders sell underperforming stocks to offset gains for tax purposes. This creates selling pressure in December, especially on smaller, less liquid stocks. When January arrives, these same stocks often experience renewed buying as traders reinvest their capital, pushing prices higher. Window Dressing by Institutions Institutional investors, such as fund managers, often adjust portfolios before year-end to make them look more attractive to clients, a practice called "window dressing." In January, they may rebalance portfolios by purchasing undervalued or smaller-cap stocks, contributing to price increases. New Year Optimism Behavioural psychology plays a role too. January marks a fresh start, and traders often approach the market with renewed confidence and optimism. This sentiment can lead to increased buying activity, particularly in assets perceived as undervalued. Seasonal Cash Inflows January is typically a time for inflows into investment accounts, as individuals allocate year-end bonuses or begin new savings plans. These funds often flow into the stock market, adding liquidity and supporting upward price momentum. Market Inefficiencies in Small-Caps Smaller companies often experience less analyst coverage and institutional attention, leading to so-called inefficiencies. These inefficiencies can be magnified during the January effect, as increased demand for these stocks creates sharper price movements. Why the January Effect Might Be Less Relevant The January effect, while historically significant, has become less prominent in modern markets. A key reason for this is the rise of market efficiency. As markets have become more transparent and accessible, traders and institutional investors have identified and acted on seasonal trends like the January effect, reducing their impact. In financial markets, the more a pattern is exploited, the less reliable it becomes over time. Algorithmic trading is another factor. Advanced algorithms can analyse seasonal trends in real-time and execute trades far more efficiently than human traders. This means the potential price movements associated with the January effect are often priced in before they have a chance to fully develop, leaving little room for manual traders to capitalise on them. Regulatory changes have also played a role. For instance, tax reforms in some countries have altered the incentives around year-end tax-loss harvesting, one of the primary drivers of the January effect. Without significant December selling, the reinvestment-driven rally in January may lose its momentum. Finally, globalisation has diluted the January effect. With global markets interconnected, price trends are no longer driven by isolated local factors. International flows and round-the-clock trading contribute to a more balanced market environment, reducing the impact of seasonal trends. How Traders Respond to the January Effect in the Stock Market Traders often pay close attention to seasonal trends like the January effect, using them as one of many tools in their market analysis. While it’s not a guarantee, the potential for small-cap stocks to rise in January offers insights into how some market participants adjust their strategies. Here are ways traders typically respond to this phenomenon: 1. Focusing on Small-Cap Stocks The January effect has historically been more pronounced in small-cap stocks. Traders analysing this trend often look for undervalued or overlooked small-cap companies with strong fundamentals. These stocks tend to experience sharper price movements due to their lower liquidity and higher susceptibility to seasonal buying pressure. 2. Positioning Ahead of January Some traders aim to capitalise on the January effect by opening a long position on small-cap stocks in late December, possibly during a Santa Claus rally, anticipating that reinvestment activity and optimism in January will drive prices up. This approach is not without risks, as not all stocks or markets exhibit the effect consistently. 3. Sector and Industry Analysis Certain sectors, such as technology or emerging industries, may show stronger seasonal performance in January. Traders often research historical data to identify which sectors have benefited most and align their trades accordingly. 4. Potential Opportunities Active traders might view the January effect as an opportunity for shorter-term trades. The focus is often on timing price movements during the month, using technical analysis to identify entry and exit points based on volume trends or momentum shifts. 5. Risk Management Adjustments While responding to the January effect, traders emphasise potential risk management measures. Seasonal trends can be unreliable, so diversification and smaller position sizes are often used to potentially limit exposure to downside risks. 6. Incorporating It Into Broader Strategies For many, the January effect is not a standalone signal but part of a larger seasonal analysis. It’s often combined with other factors like earnings reports, economic data, or geopolitical developments to form a more comprehensive approach. The Bottom Line The January effect remains an intriguing market trend, offering insights into seasonal stock movements and trader behaviour. While its relevance may have shifted over time, understanding it can add value to market analysis. For those looking to trade stock CFDs and explore potential seasonal trading opportunities, open an FXOpen account to access a broker with more than 700 markets, low costs, and fast execution speeds. FAQ What Is the Stock Market January Effect? The January effect refers to a historical pattern where stock prices, particularly small-cap stocks, tend to rise in January. This trend is often linked to tax-loss selling in December, portfolio rebalancing, and renewed investor optimism at the start of the year. What Happens to Stock Prices in January? In January, stock prices, especially for smaller companies, may experience an uptick due to increased buying activity, caused by a mix of factors, including tax-loss selling, “window dressing”, seasonal cash inflow, new year optimism, and market inefficiencies in small caps. However, this isn’t guaranteed and depends on various contextual factors. Is December a Good Month for Stocks? December is often positive for stocks, driven by the “Santa Claus rally,” where prices rise in the final weeks of the year. However, tax-loss selling, overall market sentiment and geopolitical and economic shifts can create mixed outcomes for the stock market, especially for small-cap stocks. Is New Year's Eve a Stock Market Holiday? No, the stock market is typically open for a shortened trading session on New Year's Eve. Normal trading hours resume after the New Year holiday. Which Months Could Be the Best for Stocks? According to theory, November through April, including January, have been months when stocks performed well. This trend is often attributed to seasonal factors and increased investor activity. However, trends change over time due to increasing market transparency and accessibility. Therefore, traders shouldn’t rely on statistics and should conduct comprehensive research. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
1
SPX/ Critical Price Zones and Bullish trend The current price action is trading at a bullish level within a sensitive zone, marked between 6,102 and 6,002. For today's projection, the price is expected to initially test the upper boundary of this zone at 6,102. Upon reaching this resistance level, it is anticipated that the price will face rejection, leading to a short-term correction. However, following this retracement, bullish momentum may resume, driving the price upwards again with an aim to break the last resistance level at 6,102. If this breakout occurs, the market would likely establish a new high level, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, for a bearish scenario to unfold, the price would need to decisively break below the 6,002 support level. This would require a 4-hour candle to close below this critical zone, confirming a downward trend. If such a break occurs, it could lead to a significant price drop, potentially targeting the lower support levels.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by ArinaKarayi
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & TargetsThe expected move for today is between 6185 and 6150 and that is a .50% move today and the only level we have in our trading range today is that 35 EMA you could see it’s been a pretty support all week and then we have that up gap from This Wednesday, which could give some added support at the bottom of the trading range. Monday’s contract at the bottom takes us in the middle of that gap and with how extremely overbought we are that 50 day moving average could be a really great target for next week.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$SPX Exit Stage LeftWe have several things going on with the SP:SPX Right now. Some say its a bullflag, Some say it's a head and shoulders. The simplest explanation often being the best, SP:SPX is testing a downtrend line that was formed as a result of price action continuously rejecting at a Supply Level. Price is consolidating, however with the aggressive short attack on the SP:SPX at the close Friday, valuations being in the clouds and meme coin holders being rugged by world leaders, I would say there is a more than fair chance all this stupidity marks a top. With a very dubious and undecided CCI, weather we break above first or break lower first does not matter. We are going down. First target is a closing of that huge Wide open space at 5850. Then Liquidity at 5700 and a third target at 5400. We will see after that. Don't forget to Short the NSE:BANKNIFTY too...
SP:SPXShort
by Midgar-
SPX week of Jan 27th 2025 The upcoming week could be a bit wild based on the recent gaps and the FOMC meeting. There are a few ranges from recent gaps up that are prime candidates to be filled on a retracement. Especially considering that the last time the FOMC spoke about rates, the index dropped over 3% in a single day. That move is pictured below, and it spans from the current level of 6100 to the top of the lowest gap at 5890. Compounding this is that the highest level of negative gamma exposure sitting directly below the highest gap. Since volatility could pick up if we breach that negative exposure level and there are 2 large gaps below we could see a significant move down. The flip side of this is earnings of course - some of the biggest players are expected to beat estimates this week. That combined with the multiple levels of high gamma exposure sitting above the current level might keep the index rising all week towards the 6200 level. A very inexpensive way to play both sides would be far out of the money inexpensive debit spreads expiring Friday 1/31 centered around the strikes of 6200 to the upside and 5980 or even 5900 to the downside. Of course I am literally brand new at trying to do this kind of analysis so I quite possibly am getting all of this wrong (although I feel like I am getting the jargon down pretty well ;)
SP:SPX
by MWFarmFarm
1
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.21.2024🔮 📅 Tue Jan 21 🗓️ Day 2 📍 WEF Annual Meetings 📅 Wed Jan 22 🗓️ Day 3 📍 WEF Annual Meetings 📅 Thu Jan 23 🗓️ Day 4 📍 WEF Annual Meetings ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Unemployment Claims: 220K (prev: 217K) ⏰ 11:00am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -2.0M 📅 Fri Jan 24 🗓️ Day 5 📍 WEF Annual Meetings ⏰ 9:45am 📊 Flash Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 📊 Flash Services PMI: 56.8 ⏰ 10:00am 📊 Existing Home Sales: 4.19M (prev: 4.15M) 📊 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: 73.2 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will get pinned down at HPZ back into the EEZ. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: A lot of resistance overhead. Markets should cool down after the gaps from last week. Small rally into fade downwards. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: We will likely get a small bounce and hold. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXShort
by PogChan
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.24.2024🔮 📅 Fri Jan 24 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.1% 📊 Employment Cost Index q/q: 0.8% ⏰ 9:45am 📊 Chicago PMI: 36.9 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then dropping back down into the EEZ. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Trump mentioned he will try to lower the rates. Let’s see how the markets adjust to it, but definitely expecting a little more bullishness to the upside. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: A large recovery will allow the markets to tag the red lines before closing slightly lower below the weekly HPZ. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
US500 SHORT💎Please don't be greedy ENTRY : yellow point TP : blue lines SL : below red line for LONG position above red line for SHORT position ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1: Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2: For risk and money management: 5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20 And 3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by RODDYTRADING