S&P500Hello traders, I think the price has reached an important area and has the ability to fall from this area.
If SP500 allows me to trade according to my trading plan, I will exit the trade with a reward 2 or stop loss.
Have a good week
SPIUSD trade ideas
SPX500,,,H2,,, UPDATEWaiting for breakout
It can be the end of the correction after touching the S/R area. Based on my view, passing out of 5500 can be a green light for new buying positions on stocks.
Although, the chart is very close to an all-time high and in these cases, the market has been fluctuated and the risk is a little high. Nevertheless, I'm going to buy some after a good confirmation of over 5500.
S&P 500 Eyes Uptrend Ahead of CPI Inflation Data ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price is currently trading above the pivot line of 5453, with potential Uptrend targets of 5491 and 5526.
However, the price remains in a consolidation phase between 5453 and 5491 until a breakout occurs.
A sustained move above 5491 would likely support a rise towards 5526 and potentially 5573. Conversely, maintaining a position below 5453 would increase the likelihood of a move down to 5412.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5460
Resistance Levels: 5490, 5526, 5573
Support Levels: 5436, 5412, 5460
Expected Trading Range: 5453 - 5526
Trend: Uptrend while above 5453
SPX Daily bounce underway?Price abruptly started weekly consolidation after failing the bull flag.
I expect the price to continue bouncing until we find a daily lower high.
For the bounce to start, surpassing the previous day high at 5,487 is a must.
Can we hold the last week low at 5,386? otherwise weekly consolidation will continue.
SPX500 H4 | Overlap resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,520.41 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,580.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 5,388.72 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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240910 Market OutlookThe SP:SPX market turns sluggish with the last day closing price is within the prior day candlestick.
Most indicators show mixed signals on the daily chart:
- Stochastic show strong divergence buy signal;
- RSI is neutral shuttling up and down around the level of 50 points;
- MACD Signal line show death cross of MACD line, while histogram of average size indicate medium falling power and may turn to positive. The latter need more observations.
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Major economic data release include the following statistics this week:
Inflation Rate (CPI) on Wednesday
ECB Rate Decision on Thu
PPI on Thu
Initial Jobless Claims on Thu
Michigan Consumer Sentiment on on Fri.
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Overall state of US economy is moderate that is no strong growth is on horizon, neither have no signs of recession. The 2024 is the year of negative real GDP growth rate in the US. There was a sign of weakening labor market last Friday. SP:SPX is relentless to disturbance and still clinging upward though, showing strong consumer confidence in late 2025.
S&P500 just needs to recover the 1D MA50.The S&P500 recovered yesterday a great deal of Friday's losses but still that wasn't enough to reclaim the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which was lost as the short-term Support level. As you realize, this is the key in order to resume and sustain the uptrend that started after the August 05 rebound near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
The long-term pattern is a Channel Up and even before that since late 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis, the index only once corrected below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 27 2023 Low). We mention that because Friday's decline stopped exactly on the 0.5 Fib.
Every rise that followed until the next correction, reached at least +10.50% from the 0.5 Fib. As a result, once the index reclaims the 1D MA50, we will buy and set the next medium-term Target at 5950 (+10.50% from the 0.5 Fib).
Notice also that yesterday's rebound was made exactly on the 1D RSI's Symmetrical Support, a level that initiated the December 19 2022 rebound.
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US500 Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for US500.
Time Frame: 10h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,477.28.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5,392.64 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
[US Stock] The forecasting of SPX Index's price action The forecasting of SPX Index's price action on Sept 10th, 2024
Could price drop from here?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,498.75
1st Support: 5,392.64
1st Resistance: 5,562.88
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SPX500 Rebounds. Support Respected.SPX500 respected its weekly support line and reverses.
Expect more ascending movements from hereon:
Spotted 4027.0
SL at 3800
TAYOR.
S&P500: Rebounding on the 1D MA100.The S&P500 is recovering Friday's lost ground and turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.331, MACD = -24.550, ADX = 22.750). Even though it needs to overcome the Resistance pressure of the 1D MA50, this rebound gives a very positive note as it is being performed on the 1D MA100, which last time was a bounce point on April 19 2024. If the August 5th rebound was a HL of a Bullish Megaphone, then now the index is starting phase 2 of the new Bullish Wave, much like the 1D MA50 bounce of May 31st. We are bullish with TP = 6000, on the -0.618 Fibonacci level for a HH.
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$SPY $SPX 30min 35EMA is still resistance hereAMEX:SPY SP:SPX 30min 35EMA is still resistance here
All of last week the 35 EMA was a clear resistance and today on the pipe we did see a push back there. Our next support level is at the four hour 200 moving average and the top of the inflation cap from last month where we saw the gap up right before PPI and CPI. About the 35 EMA we do have the 50 day moving average in the one hour 200 moving average, however the momentum there is completely flat so if we get to that point I would say definitely stay neutral
Short trade
Trade Details:
Date: Tuesday, 3rd September 2024
Pair: SPX/USD
Time: 11:00 PM
Trade Type: Sellside trade idea
Time Frame: (15min TF)
Entry Level: 5543.1
Profit Level: 5402.8 (a 2.53% - 1403 PIPS)
Stop Level: 5558.6 (a 0.28% - 155 PIPS)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 9.05
Trade Idea:
This sellside trade on SPX/USD is set for late in the session on Tuesday, 3rd September 2024.
Mid term shortWe expect a drop in the price that broke the 200-hour moving average towards the main correction level of 38.2%, and if this level is broken, a decline to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is anticipated.
With the expectation of a 0.50-point rate cut from the FED in September starting to decrease to 0.25 points, we may see a correction movement in the U.S. stock markets overall.
Additionally, the recovery in the DXY and the breakout of the short-term downward channel also strengthen our expectation. We recommend setting the stop-loss level above the previous peak.
SPx - Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Key Economic Data AwaitsS&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price is currently trading below the pivot level of 5454, with a potential downside target of 5412. However, the price remains in a consolidation phase between 5456 and 5412 until a breakout occurs. A sustained move above 5454 would likely support a rise towards 5490 and potentially 5526. Conversely, maintaining a position below 5454 would increase the likelihood of a move down to 5412.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5454
Resistance Levels: 5490, 5526, 5573
Support Levels: 5412, 5460, 5328
Expected Trading Range: 5471 - 5412
Trend: Short-term downtrend
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Monetary Policy Shift Anticipated Amid Key Economic Releases
With the economy in balance and inflation trending toward the 2% target, it is now seen as appropriate to reduce the degree of policy restrictiveness by lowering the target range for the federal funds rate.
Currently, U.S. rate futures indicate a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
In the coming week, the spotlight will be on the U.S. consumer inflation report for August. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor other key economic indicators, including the U.S. PPI, Core PPI, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Export Price Index, Import Price Index, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
US500 LONGUS100
LONG
PLEASE DON’T BE GREEDY
ENTRY POINT : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG POSITION
above red Line for SHORT POSITION
INSTRUCTIONS:
FOR risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
US500
LONG
ENTRY 5443
TP 5478 5520 5560 5600
SL 5380
like, boost, be followers
PLEASE DON’T BE GREEDY
SPX: NFP shaped sentimentNegative investors sentiment marked the previous week on the US equity markets. At the start of the week a news hit the market that market favorite tech company Nvidia was charged by the U.S. Justice Department for violence of antitrust law in the US. As news is reporting, charges came from company Xockets Inc for illegal use of the company's patents related to data processing units used in AI technology. This was the initial timing of the general selloff on financial markets. Another negative news was released on Friday, when the US non farm payrolls hit the levels below market anticipated ones. During August, the US economy added 142K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see a figure near 160K. The combination of negative news and sentiment brought the S&P 500 to its worst week in 2024. The index started the week at the level of 5.645 and finished it at 5.505, about 2,5% lower. The drop was mostly led by tech companies.
A weak jobs data is turning investors to reconsider their expectations of the earnings of companies in the US in the coming period. Increasing number of analysts is pointing to a possibility of a recession in the US. Investors are now increasing expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates by 50 bps at their September meeting, in order to diminish further decline of the economy and jobs market. By the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there are almost equal numbers of participants who are expecting a 25 bps and 50 bps rate cut.
Analysts are in agreement that the market currently does not have a clue in which direction to trade. At this moment investors are turning their eyes toward the Fed for guidance. In this sense, some further volatility might be expected at the US equity markets, until September 19th, when the Fed will shape the sentiment and final direction of equity markets.
US500 priming for the next jump up or BIG crash down 24%!SP500 right now is in an uptrend since November 2023.
If the price holds, we will conitnue to see all time highs and there'll be sunshine and ranbows.
If the Double TOp breaks below, we are talking a potential 24% crash down to 4,116.
So we are at an alert rate to watch and observe and act accordingly.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl area 5374.Dear colleagues, at the moment I believe that the price is in the upward impulse of wave “1”, I assume that soon it will end and the correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5374 will begin. It is quite possible that the price is already completing wave “1” and the downward movement will start soon.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
US500 and the Elliott Wave Mega Cycle: What Lies Ahead?
Great-Things, traders and market enthusiasts! It's Lord Medz here, bringing you another detailed analysis on the US500, this time from the perspective of the Elliott Wave Principle. Buckle up because we are diving deep into the long-term charts and cycles, looking at what could be a crucial moment in the stock market's journey over the next several years.
The Elliott Wave Principle and the US500
For those who may not be familiar, the Elliott Wave Principle is a technical analysis theory used to forecast market cycles by identifying repetitive wave patterns. In this case, we are focusing on the US500 index, where we believe a mega cycle—consisting of five supercycle waves—has potentially completed its course over the past 8.4 years.
Here's what we're seeing:
Five Supercycle Waves: The US500 has been moving through a bullish impulse pattern for nearly a decade. Each supercycle leg, as we know, is made up of five smaller impulse waves, and historically, after the completion of a supercycle, the market tends to pull back.
Recent Pullbacks: Let's take a look at some recent examples of these pullbacks:
2020: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the market retraced a massive 75%, briefly shaking the foundations of the financial world. But it wasn’t the end of the mega cycle—merely a correction within the broader trend.
2022: Another notable retracement occurred, this time by 50%. Yet again, the market rebounded quickly, suggesting we were still within the bounds of the mega cycle.
What’s Next? Possible Scenarios for the US500
If this mega cycle truly has ended, as suggested by the completion of five major waves, then we could be looking at a significant correction phase. Here's what we are considering:
The 33% Drop to 3750: The US500 could be setting up for a retracement of around 33%, which would pull the index down to the 3750 level. This level corresponds to a typical correction after such an extended wave cycle. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this would be a normal and healthy pullback after a long-term bullish impulse.
Breaking the Swing Low at 3520: If the market breaks below the swing low at 3520, it could signal something much more ominous—a potential shift in the entire market structure from bullish to bearish. A break below this critical level could trigger widespread selling and possibly bring us into what some fear may resemble the Great Depression of the 1930s.
A Time of Caution or Opportunity?
Now, before you jump to conclusions, let me be clear: this is not financial advice. These scenarios are possibilities based on historical price action and the Elliott Wave theory. The markets are always unpredictable, and there are always risks. But it’s worth noting that markets go through cycles, and understanding these cycles can give traders a clearer perspective on what might come next.
Should the US500 drop to 3750, it could represent an opportunity for patient traders looking for value in a pullback. However, if we see a break below 3520, it might be time to reassess the broader outlook.
Final Thoughts
The US500 has enjoyed a spectacular rise over the last decade, powered by strong fundamentals and unprecedented market liquidity. But as the Elliott Wave Principle suggests, every bullish impulse eventually faces a corrective phase. The real question now is how deep this correction will go.
Stay sharp, manage your risk, and always have a game plan. If the Elliott Wave cycles are playing out as expected, we could be in for an eventful few years.
Until next time, trade smart and stay safe.
Peace, Lord MEDZ.
SPX500 Outlook💹 Indices:
👁️ Outlook
Long Term time frame (5hr): We have been breaking bearish on the 5hr and showing strength to the downside.
Long Term (5hr): Price however is over extended and needs to build liquidity over the week.
Intermediate frame (30m): This is what I am expecting for the sessions to look like by the time its NY session.
I believe we could be seeing longs for the start of the week on Indices to build that liquidity. I will be looking for longs Monday NY session depending how price looks at 8:30am EST.
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
