S&P500trend is strong Bulish
test the trend line with Bulish divergence beak the range area .
anticipate price retrace at fib level 0.50%.
entry price (Buy limit) 5953
Stop Loss 5760
Take profit 6143
RRR 1:1
SPIUSD trade ideas
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets For Today & Tomorrow We are above the 50 day moving average the one hour to under moving average and 35 EMA on the 30 minute timeframe and then we have that up gap from last Friday all on the downside of the trading range. We are currently at a resistance level here, and above it we have another one at 6045 (top of the implied move) which was a support in December before we broke down and then it turned into a resistance. We have an island gap underneath the 30 minute tun removing average above the four hour to removing average and just remember they always do fill. It doesn’t have to be this week but it definitely could be so if you’re bar that might be a good place to look to take profits if we do go down.
I will dive much more deeply into these levels on tonight's video, but for now we at least have them.
Things to Watch this Week:
Earnings Reports: Major companies like Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG), United Airlines (UAL), General Electric (GE), Alaska Air (ALK), American Airlines (AAL), CSX Corporation (CSX), Verizon (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and American Express (AXP) are set to release their earnings. These reports can significantly influence market sentiment and stock prices.
Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing will provide insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. This data can influence expectations about economic growth and interest rates.
Services PMI: Similarly, the Services PMI will give an overview of the service sector's performance. Given the service sector's substantial contribution to the economy, this data is critical for understanding overall economic trends.
Home Sales: Data on existing home sales can shed light on consumer confidence and spending in the housing market, which is a major component of economic activity. Changes in home sales can signal shifts in economic health.
Jobless Claims: Weekly initial jobless claims numbers are a pulse check on the labor market. Rising claims might indicate economic slowdown, while falling claims suggest job growth and economic strength.
Market Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been noted to be fluctuating, which might continue this week. Monitoring the VIX can help assess market fear or complacency.
Interest Rate Sensitivity: With the Federal Reserve’s actions on interest rates being a focal point, any indication of future policy direction from Fed officials' speeches or economic data releases could sway markets. Look for comments from Fed members or economic reports that might hint at rate adjustments.
Sector Performance: Particularly, keep an eye on sectors like Technology (with companies like Nvidia potentially leading AI trends), Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary, which have shown movements or are expected to with upcoming earnings.
Global Economic Indicators: International developments, especially from major economies like China or the Eurozone, can impact U.S. markets due to globalization. Look for news on global manufacturing, services, or policy changes that could affect investor sentiment.
Geopolitical Events: Although not directly mentioned in recent market summaries, geopolitical tensions or developments, like trade negotiations or conflicts, can influence markets. Keep an ear out for any significant international news that might ripple through financial markets.
US500
1. Weekly Timeframe
1. Ascending Parallel Channel & Middle Line
• The US 500 has been moving in a broad rising channel. Respect for the midline (the “median” of that parallel channel) can indicate strong internal structure to the uptrend.
• Price repeatedly holding near or above the 20 EMA on the weekly bolsters the view that buyers are active on dips.
2. Order Blocks
• The 5800 area (per your chart scaling) served as a weekly order block where price reacted sharply upward, underlining that region as a significant support/demand zone.
3. Ichimoku
• A bullish Ichimoku profile on the weekly suggests the higher timeframe trend remains up. Cloud support has not been violated.
4. Momentum & Capital Flows
• RSI in the 60+ zone and a MACD that, while it’s in a “bearish waning” phase, is not strongly diverging from price yet.
• CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) staying above zero indicates consistent capital inflows, reinforcing a buy-the-dips sentiment on the weekly timeframe.
Weekly Summary
The weekly trend remains structurally bullish, with dips finding support both at EMAs and near identified order blocks. Momentum is not overheated. Any near-term pullback would likely remain within the broader bullish framework unless it severely violates key structure or the 20/50 weekly EMAs.
2. Daily Timeframe
1. Channel Structures
• You mentioned an ascending channel from the September low that was broken to the downside during the recent consolidation. Since that channel is now invalid, it’s prudent to monitor price action to see how a new channel or range might form.
• The invalidation of a channel can simply mean the market has shifted into a different angle of attack—a new channel or wedge may emerge.
2. EMAs & Bollinger Bands
• Despite the consolidation, the daily EMAs (particularly the 50 and 100) remain upward sloping, which is a hallmark of an intact bullish trend on a medium-term basis.
• Multiple wicks into the 100 EMA, followed by strong closes back above shorter EMAs, highlight that area as reliable dynamic support.
• Hovering in the upper Bollinger band region often correlates with bullish continuation, though it can also precede a near-term pullback if price spends too long “riding the band.”
3. Ichimoku
• Price briefly dipped below the Cloud but has now pushed back inside it. Generally, a close back above the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily would be more definitive proof of renewed bullish momentum, so staying watchful here makes sense.
4. Daily Order Blocks
• You mention the 5842 level and the possibility that the market “closed below” it but then reversed after tagging the 100 EMA. That underscores that not every technical zone breaks price conclusively; strong dynamic support (EMAs) and overall liquidity hunts can overshadow a single daily close below an order block.
5. Momentum Indicators
• RSI’s move back over 50 is a bullish sign of momentum improvement, and the MACD turning positive again on the daily further underpins that reading.
• However, your logic that a short push higher could trigger a contrarian fade (especially if the put-call ratio is extremely low) is consistent with typical overbought or euphoric conditions.
Daily Summary
Still leaning bullish with strong evidence of higher lows and reliable EMA bounces. A near-term pullback could be triggered by an overextension or liquidity sweep. However, dips may be limited or quickly bid up given that daily momentum has reasserted itself to the upside.
3. Four-Hour & Lower Timeframes
1. Recent Bearish Structure / Falling Triangle
• You noted that price broke out of a near-term bearish pattern (descending wedge/triangle).
• The typical post-breakout playbook suggests a retest is likely—this could coincide with the broad idea of not chasing the market. Let it come back, see if a retest holds, and then it’s a safer entry.
2. Order Blocks & Overextension
• The next 4H order block (e.g., ~6056) may be a target on a momentum spurt. If that run materializes quickly, it can “tap” that level and then retrace.
• On the 4H RSI or Stochastics, any overextension into 70-80 zone often leads to a temporary pause. The presence of a contrarian put-call ratio environment lends further credence to expecting a short-term fade.
3. One-Hour Minor Trendline
• Price is riding a minor uptrend line. Intra-day, these lines can break quickly, sometimes triggering algorithmic or retail stops. You anticipate that break, a sell-off that then loses momentum (bearish momentum wanes), and the broader uptrend resumes. That is a classic scenario for trading the “fake breakdown” or retest to see if the higher-timeframe bullish structure is truly intact.
Intraday Summary
The short-term structure has turned positive after the recent breakout. However, be prepared for a retest or a quick liquidity sweep that fakes out short-term traders before resuming the uptrend. Patience is key; avoid FOMO entries.
4. Seasonality & Macro Considerations
1. January Barometer
• The adage goes: “As goes January, so goes the year.” While not a guaranteed prophecy, a strong January often sets a bullish tone for the year.
• We’re seeing typical January volatility. The fact it’s net positive so far supports an overall bullish tilt for 2025 (in your chart’s labeling).
2. Put-Call Ratio
• A low (or persistently dropping) put-call ratio can be a contrarian indicator. Extreme complacency in the options market sometimes precedes short-term pullbacks, even if the bigger trend remains bullish.
3. Economic Backdrop & Earnings
• While you haven’t delved deeply into fundamentals or macro, remember that news flow (earnings, rate expectations, etc.) can disrupt purely technical plays.
• If the fundamental backdrop remains supportive, it can help keep corrections shallow.
Overall Synthesis
analysis points to a medium- to long-term uptrend that is intact (weekly and daily) while acknowledging a near-term risk of an overextension or liquidity sweep (4H and below). The best general approach to avoid FOMO is:
1. Stay Aligned with the Higher Trend
• The weekly/daily structure and indicators (EMAs, RSI, MACD) lean bullish, so buying dips is generally more favorable than trying to short.
2. Wait for a Retest or Waning Bearish Momentum on Lower Timeframes
• Confirmation after a minor pullback, retest of a broken trendline, or a known support (like the 4H or 1H EMAs, Ichimoku Cloud bottom, or an order block) is more reliable than chasing.
3. Manage Risk
• Even if everything looks bullish, the market can and will surprise. Ensure stop-losses are strategically placed below a key structural level (e.g., below the 100 EMA on daily or a prior pivot low).
4. Seasonality Provides a Tailwind
• A positive January frequently begets further strength in equities. However, remain mindful that short-term bouts of volatility are common in any bullish trend.
technical picture: it’s a bullish environment on higher timeframes, with only short-term signals hinting at a possible pullback. The key is patience—focus on a tactical entry when (or if) the market dips rather than FOMO buying into the overextension. If no dip comes and it runs higher, wait for the next consolidation pattern to form and enter on that next, higher low.
Bullish bounce?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot and c ould bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,981.20
1st Support: 5,822.54
1st Resistance: 6,174.50
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JPY bags are heavy. Redridge Capital is back with vengeance.
This time we are shorting S&P via 7-10 days OTM puts strikes at 5800-5820 and some short positions in Netflix as well.
The rationale behind this trade is that the traders might be underestimating the associated volatility that might come with the next Bank of Japan meeting. We are expecting a hawkish outcome which will unwind USDJPY longs and start to unwind the froth in the risk assets as well.
The time to strike is now.
US500 (S&P): Trend in 2H time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, and colored levels.
Do not open a position without TP and SL.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
Nightly SPX/SPX/SPY Predictions for 1.27.2024🔮
📅 Mon Jan 27
No major U.S. data
🌍 Global Watch: ECB signals 2025 rate cuts (25–50 bps expected).
📅 Tue Jan 28
⏰ 10:00am ET
📊 CB Consumer Confidence: 105.9 (prev: 104.7)
🌍 Global Watch: Eurozone inflation rises to 2.4% (stagflation risks).
📅 Wed Jan 29
⏰ 2:00pm ET
📊 Federal Funds Rate: 4.50% (prev: 4.50%)
📜 FOMC Statement
⏰ 2:30pm ET
🎙️ FOMC Press Conference
🌍 Global Watch: ECB downgrades 2025 GDP to 1.1% (Germany recession).
📅 Thu Jan 30
⏰ 8:30am ET
📊 Advance GDP q/q: 2.7% (prev: 3.1%)
📊 Unemployment Claims: 221K (prev: 223K)
🌍 Global Watch: ECB rate decision (25–50 bps cut expected).
📅 Fri Jan 31
⏰ 8:30am ET
📊 Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.1%)
📊 Employment Cost Index q/q: 0.9% (prev: 0.8%)
🌍 Global Watch: Eurozone Q4 GDP forecast: 0.3–0.4% (spillover risk).
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then dropping back down into the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Hard to move up higher, so will slowly chop down to the Cushion levels.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Due to the ongoing momentum, we will get a slight recovery but still drop and chop back down into the lower range.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
US500 - Short-Term Pain!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US500 has been in a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the blue channel.
Moreover, the blue zone is a strong demand and structure.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of structure and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
If the blue intersection is broken downward, a deeper correction towards the green intersection would be expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Trump Returns to the White House: Tariffs EyedToday’s inauguration is undoubtedly a big event for traders, analysts, and the global economy.
Everyone is watching.
Let’s be frank: regardless of your opinion of Donald Trump or his proposed policies, his Presidential election win over Democrat candidate Kamala Harris on 5 November 2024 was nothing short of remarkable. It was a sweeping victory, and Trump returns to the White House today.
Trump’s inauguration is expected to begin at 5:00 pm GMT (midday EST) and marks the start of his second term in office.
Robust Economy Provides ‘Tariff’ Legroom for Trump
While tariffs are undoubtedly inbound, it is unclear what plans Trump will pursue and when he will implement these strategies. Investors are concerned that imposing tariffs could stoke inflation and hinder consumption (and consequently put the brakes on economic growth).
According to the latest data (December 2024), we have seen an uptick in US inflation. Year-on-year (YY), CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) rose for a third consecutive month to 2.9%, PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) also increased for a third straight month to 3.3%, and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) primary measure of inflation, the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures), is hovering just north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target at 2.4% (for November 2024). This, coupled with real US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) running at an annualised rate of 3.1% in Q3 24 and jobs data showing that the US economy added 256,000 new payrolls in December 2024, reveals Trump has legroom (some ‘cover’ if you will) to impose tariffs early on in his tenure.
Trump Tariff ‘Threats’ So Far
Speculation regarding the possibility of as many as 100 executive orders being signed today has been circulating the wires. Plenty of ambiguity is unquestionably present heading into today’s event, and the market dislikes uncertainty.
Concerning tariff ‘plans’, Trump has floated several possible approaches, including 100% tariffs against BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) unless their governments commit to the US dollar (USD), as well as tariff threats against Canada, China, and Mexico. Trump voiced intentions of introducing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and adding an additional 10% tariff on goods from China.
What Will I Be Watching Today?
Today, I will primarily be looking for any direction on tariffs, particularly concerning Canada, Mexico, and China.
Let’s assume Trump follows through on his threats to Canada and Mexico. A 25% tariff (or more) applied on goods from Canada and Mexico will prompt upside in currency pairs like the USD/CAD (US dollar versus the Canadian dollar) and USD/MXN (US dollar versus the Mexican peso) – for those who monitor implied volatility, check out USD/CAD; we are at levels not seen since early 2023! A 25% tariff on the aforesaid countries will also likely trigger a bid in the US Dollar Index and absorb offers around major resistance at 109.33. In contrast, major US equity indexes are expected to take a hit in this scenario.
Another observation I feel needs some consideration is the USD positioning heading into this event. The USD is particularly stretched to the upside for those who monitor COT data (Commitment of Traders report). However, although this may be the case, I still expect USD outperformance on the back of 25% tariffs.
Nevertheless, were Trump to pursue a lower tariff rate for Canada and Mexico or not to pursue tariffs at all, a considerable unwind in USD longs is possible, and downside in USD/CAD, USD/MXN, as well as the US Dollar Index, would be on the table (upside in US equities). A situation without tariffs would create considerable volatility and open the door to shorting opportunities in key currency pairs.
Regarding China, if Trump were to follow through and impose a 10% additional tariff, this would likely send USD/CNY northbound (US dollar versus the Chinese yuan). Additionally, I expect the AUD/USD (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) and NZD/USD (New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar) pairs to trade lower, given their trading relationships with China. I also believe US and Chinese equity markets will sell off.
Less than a 10% tariff or no tariffs on China would likely underpin AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and the noted equity markets (but weigh on the USD/CNY). Looking closely at the S&P 500, you will note that longer-term weekly action ended last Friday in the shape of a bullish engulfing formation, following a shallow correction from all-time highs of 6,099. This, together with the clear-cut uptrend and daily price climbing above its 50-day simple moving average at 5,967 (and a lack of obvious daily resistance), places bulls in a favourable position to challenge all-time highs, technically speaking.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis 22 January 2025
- S&P 500 index broke resistance levels 6000.00 and 6060.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6110.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the resistance levels 6000.00 (top of the previous minor correction) and 6060.00 (top of the previous wave B from December).
The breakout of these resistance levels accelerated the active intermediate impulse sequence (3) from the start of January.
Given the strong multi-month uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6110.00, top of the previous impulse wave (1).
Earnings Season Cranks Up for Gainless S&P 500. What to Expect?The S&P 500 SPX is now showing nearly zero growth since Election Day, November 5. Markets were euphoric to see Donald Trump win the White House for another four years and pushed the S&P 500 to the rarefied air of 6,000 points and above. But that’s not the case anymore.
A flurry of data has poured cold water on that breakneck rally, including the latest nonfarm payrolls, which showed employers tapped a whopping 256,000 workers in December, far outpacing expectations of 156,000. The news fanned fears that the Federal Reserve might take its time in cutting interest rates — every investor’s biggest concern right now.
It’s up to the earnings season to rejuvenate a falling stock market. To many, the fourth-quarter earnings updates will be the most consequential event as it will also mark President Joe Biden’s departure and the arrival of the main character, Donald Trump.
First through the door, as is tradition, are the heavyweight players on Wall Street. This week traders will get to see the earnings results from big banks including JPMorgan JPM , Wells Fargo WFC and Goldman Sachs GS . In addition, the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock BLK will also post its performance.
The banks’ updates will provide a glimpse into investor appetite for big-shot dealmaking, business sentiment and also how daring and bold consumers were in their spending activity. Things like net interest income — how much the bank earned on interest after paying out deposits — will be a key gauge for the banking system’s health.
Here’s what’s coming from Wall Street’s household names (and some extra).
➡️ Wednesday, January 15, before the bell:
Citi C
Goldman Sachs GS
JPMorgan JPM
Wells Fargo WFC
BlackRock BLK
Bank of New York Mellon BK
➡️ Thursday, January 16, before the open:
Bank of America BAC
Morgan Stanley MS
U.S. Bancorp USB
Other earnings include UnitedHealth UNH .
Once markets digest the updates from the lending giants, the focus will shift to the next big thing — the Magnificent Seven . It’s a high bar once again for America’s most powerful corporate juggernauts.
Investors expect Mag 7 earnings to be up 22% from the same period last year while revenue is eyeballed to have grown 12.3%. The consensus views follow the elite club’s 32.9% earnings jump in the third quarter on revenue increase of 15.4%.
Fun fact: the Mag 7 members accounted for 23.1% of all profits in the S&P 500 for the quarter ending September. For the three months to December, they are expected to consume about a quarter of the earnings pie.
And for 2025, their market cap is projected to devour more than one-third of the S&P 500’s value, which is around $50 trillion. For the tech geeks, here’s the Mag 7 earnings slate:
➡️ Wednesday, January 29, after the closing bell:
Microsoft MSFT
Facebook parent Meta META
Tesla TSLA
➡️ Thursday, January 30, after the closing bell:
Apple AAPL
Amazon AMZN
➡️ Tuesday, February 4, after the closing bell:
Google parent Alphabet GOOGL
➡️ Wednesday, February 19 (tentative), after the closing bell:
Nvidia NVDA
Overall, the foresighted market gurus (i.e. the analysts) expect all companies in the S&P 500 to report a roughly 12% advance in quarterly profits compared to the year-ago quarter. For 2025, the consensus call is a 15% increase in corporate profits from last year.
There are, of course, the permabears among us who spell doom and gloom. They say that Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could hinder corporate growth by raising prices for US companies that rely on overseas products. And if those companies decide to pass these costs to customers, then inflation might rear back up, throwing the markets into another painful cycle of higher interest rates.
What’s your take? Are you optimistic about the corporate earnings season? And are you excited to see more growth in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments and let’s spin up the discussion.
Sell In May and Go Away?The best that I can see at this point in time. I think trading under Trump will be volatile and the volatility will continue to be realized through the tape until midyear. I see 6308 to 6371 as top targets at this time, the path is very uncertain but against most thoughts of a parabolic move, I think EW prevails and timing sets up for midyear reversal and possibly the end of this large large bull run. Time will tell. Im often wrong. Not financial advice.
Can a breakthrough to the upside be maintained of S&P500?From the technical side, we are seeing a small push higher, breaking above a short-term downside line. Despite this being a somewhat positive occurrence, we would rather wait to see where we close at the end of Friday. For more information, please see the video.
MARKETSCOM:US500
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Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.23.2024🔮
📅 Thu Jan 23
🗓️ Day 4
📍 WEF Annual Meetings
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Unemployment Claims: 221K (prev: 217K)
⏰ 11:00am
🎙️ President Trump Speaks
🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -0.1M (prev: -2.0M)
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
If we gap up once more, we will break all-time highs. This will be met by a big decline to juice liquidity.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Only resistance left, looking for a small pop up into the weekly zone to get a drop back down into the HCZ and HEL.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
We will likely get a small bounce, hold, and chop down.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
S&P 500 hits all-time highsUS stock index futures were a touch lower this morning, pulling back following gains for all four majors on Thursday. Yesterday the S&P 500 finally broke above 6,100 to hit a fresh all-time high, while also posting a record close. The Dow and NASDAQ 100 were both around 1% below their respective all-time highs, while the mid-cap, domestically-focused Russell 2000 is now 6% adrift. Bear in mind how the Russell outperformed the other indices in the aftermath of Trump’s decisive electoral victory in November. Could this suggest that there are problems in the broader US stock market, away from the giant multinationals? The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is unchanged from yesterday at around 4.63%. The pullback in yields since last week’s benign inflation data is giving equities some support. The US dollar has fallen from the 26-month highs hit just under a fortnight ago. The Dollar Index has lost around 2.5% since then which is a significant move. Prior to Trump’s inauguration, the dollar had rallied, partly on the expectation that he would impose immediate swingeing tariffs from ‘Day 1’ as he threatened while on the campaign trail. The dollar retreated as tariffs weren’t forthcoming, and it fell further overnight following Trump’s call for an immediate cut in interest rates. His call comes just ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Although the probability of another cut from the Fed is realistically zero. The fourth quarter earnings season has had a positive start, and this is helping to support equities. Today brings results from a range of corporates across different sectors including American Express, Verizon Communications, NextEra Energy, HCA Healthcare and some regional banks. There are also updates on US Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
SPX 500 Returns to All-Time HighsAfter two days of Trump’s official inauguration at the White House, the market maintains a short-term optimistic bias. This has allowed the price to rise by more than 1.5% as expectations grow for low-tax policies that could potentially boost domestic consumption in the United States.
Steady Trend:
The growing wave of buying positions has brought focus back to the long-term trend that has persisted in the stock index for several months. However, the price will now need to confront the resistance zone at all-time highs to confirm the bullish bias in the coming sessions.
RSI:
At the moment, the RSI line maintains a significant upward slope and marks levels above the neutral zone at 50. However, it is approaching the inflection point near the overbought zone marked by the 70 level of the indicator. RSI oscillations near this zone could begin to trigger bearish corrections in the actual resistance as an imbalance of long positions starts to emerge.
Key Levels:
6.082: The most important short-term resistance level, coinciding with all-time highs and the upper Bollinger Band. Consistent oscillations above this level could set a new record high and reinforce the formation of the long-term bullish trend.
5.963: A nearby support level, located in the middle of the current small lateral range, which could serve as a resting point for future bearish corrections in price.
5.847: The definitive support level, where the latest market lows coincide with the barrier marked by the 100-period moving average. Persistent price oscillations below this level could jeopardize the current long-term bullish bias and pave the way for a fresh wave of selling pressure.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
Prediction for Recession once SPX hits 6666Prediction for Recession once SPX hits 6666 and a large world event to around the 4500 below area sharply in May 2025
Similar to the drop February 2006, we hit 666
Lets see if my prediction plays out
S&P Short1)Trend defined. Daily range.
2)Contradictory limit order entry. At the upper extreme of the 1h range.
3)Default loss. Above the starting point of a massive bearish move.
4)Default target level. 4.09.
5)Risk <= 3%.
6)Singular trade.
7)Trades placed today <= 5.
Global Liquidity Index Overlaid on S&P 500 Tracking the Global Liquidity Index with the S&P 500 helps understand liquidity's impact on market performance and predict future moves. The GLI offers a unified view of central bank balance sheets, converted to USD, excluding currency-pegged banks, with reliable data since 2007.
Rising liquidity often leads to market growth, while declining liquidity could signal pullbacks or increased volatility.
Liquidity Spikes: Sudden rises in the GLI may boost the S&P 500.
Liquidity Dips: Falling liquidity may signal market decline due to higher volatility and trading difficulties.
Divergence between the GLI & S&P 500:
If stocks rise while liquidity falls, a correction might be coming. If liquidity rises while stocks fall, the market might catch up to the liquidity increase.
The GLI indicates that risk appetite is starting to decline. High liquidity encourages risk-taking; low liquidity leads to safer investments, increasing volatility and potential market declines.
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Not just the stocks crashing.. everythingSince i've been looking at the monthly timeframe it's been difficult to pinpoint the crash but i'm 99% confident NFP is going to do the trick. this should be interesting
Why to short SPX HEAVYAs you have seen my previous analysis. As per my analysis this is a double top pattern on SPX . I believe that we will see spx 5860 soon to fill those gaps. Earning season will be the catalyst
Red Alert! Major Bearish Signal for U.S. Stocks. Attention – this is a Red Alert! This is a Red alert!
The main three U.S. stock indices, S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) have recorded a major bearish momentum divergence.
In December 2024 all three indices recorded new all-time highs. Last week for several days only SPX reached a new all-time high. This phenomenon occurred in 2007 just prior to the last major U.S. stock bear market.
As of this writing on Sunday 01/26/25 at 8:30 PM – PT the S&P 500 – E- Mini futures are down almost .90% it appears the SPX could be trading down more than 1% on 01/27/25.
There could be a decline greater than 10% coming soon. This could be the best time to sell or short U.S. stocks in 2025.
It looks like the bear is back!
This is a Red Alert!
US500 will continue go upIt just begin the up trend in W1 chart, and continue go up for a couple of weeks
