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US 500 (SPI) / US Dollar

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S&P 500 (SPX) 1M next week?The S&P 500 is pulling back from a key resistance after completing a bearish AB=CD pattern on the monthly chart. Price action suggests a potential correction toward the 4662–4700 zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which may serve as a key area for bullish reaccumulation. Momentum indicators show bearish divergence, hinting at a cooling rally. Fundamentally, the index remains supported by strong earnings in tech and AI sectors, but risks persist from elevated interest rates, sticky inflation, and potential Fed policy shifts. A pullback into the 4662–4700 zone may offer a medium-term setup for continuation toward 5198 and potentially 5338. A breakdown below 4662 would invalidate the bullish structure and shift focus to lower Fibonacci levels.
VANTAGE:SP500
by TotoshkaTrades
2
Bulls are not of the woods, not by far1. What happened yesterday? In my weekend analysis covering US indices , I mentioned that US500 (SP500) could drop and test the ascending trend line starting back at the pandemic low. This line is confluent with the horizontal support level given by January 2022 ATH, offering a good opportunity for traders to open long positions. Indeed, at least on CFDs and futures, this trend line was touched, and the price rebounded strongly from there. 2. Key Question: Will we have a full V-shape recovery, or will the price drop back below 5k in the coming sessions? 3. Why I expect a continuation of the correction: 🔸 Strong Resistance: The US500 has established a robust ceiling around the 5350-5400 zone(also a gap there) 🔸 Lack of Building Momentum on Support: There's no clear indication that this resistance will be broken anytime soon with the lack of accumulation under 5k 🔸 Potential for Further Decline: Given the current market structure, a drop below 5k remains a realistic possibility in the upcoming sessions. 4. Trading Plan: 🎯 My Strategy: Playing the range. ✅ Buy near the 4800 support. ✅ Sell into the resistance zone between 5350 and 5400. 5. Conclusion: I’m watching for market confirmations and will continue applying this range strategy until there’s a clear directional change. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:US500
by Mihai_Iacob
This is a test on SPX500Short thesis for SPX500 🚨 Market Alert: SPX500 Approaching Critical Zone (April 6, 2025) Volatility (VIX) just surged to 45—markets are feeling significant fear. This creates high-quality swing-trading opportunities. 🎯 Why this area is important: Key Support Flip: Previous strong weekly resistance could now act as critical support. High-Timeframe Imbalance: SPX500 is retesting the exact demand zone that launched the powerful rally from October 2022 → February 2024. 50% Fibonacci Level: Perfect retracement to the midpoint of the entire 2022–2024 bullish leg. ⚠️ What I'm watching for (No-Chase Method): ✅ Lower-timeframe liquidity sweeps + Break of Structure (BOS) as confirmation. ✅ Volume spikes indicating smart-money engagement. ✅ Signs of VIX easing (below ~35), reinforcing bullish reversal thesis.
FX:SPX500
by soppiestdragoon
1
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?Introduction The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA? A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun. A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term During Trump’s first presidency: First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension. This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic. Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier) Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies. So why didn’t the market react earlier? 📉 Because this isn’t about tariffs. It’s about Wave 4. The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000. The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5 Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse. Potential triggers: Overleveraged markets Global debt bubbles Geopolitical instability Inflation shockwaves AI and tech overvaluation Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy? This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash? The answer may be both. ✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5 ⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall. Key Takeaways: Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008 Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
SP:SPX
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
1
More down for SPX500USDHi traders, Could an outlook be more accurate then this? Last week I said that SPX500USD could see more downside. I also annotated the liquidity on the chart where we could see a reaction. And what did price? It took the liquidity, made a correction up (orange wave 2) and dropped. Did I know the news before? No of course not. This is the power of Wave analysis. If you've followed my outlook, you could have made much profit. Now for next week we could see a small correction up and more downside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
1
S&P 500 Down 3% – Divergence AppearsThe S&P 500 (SPX) continues to show a strong bearish bias and is approaching the 5,300-point level in the short term. Selling pressure remains steady as post-“Liberation Day” uncertainty persists, with markets concerned that the recently announced tariffs could significantly impact the U.S. economic outlook. As a result, this could severely limit the performance of equity indices like the S&P 500. Bearish Channel Since February 20, the SPX index has maintained consistent downward momentum, establishing a new bearish channel in the short term. The index has now broken below the key 5,400-point support level. However, the speed of the recent declines may have created an imbalance in market forces, which could pave the way for a bullish correction in upcoming sessions. Divergence in Indicators MACD: Both the MACD line and the signal line have shown higher lows in recent trading sessions, which contrasts with the lower lows in the SPX price, indicating a bullish divergence. RSI: The RSI is showing a similar pattern, with the line forming higher lows while price continues to make lower lows. Additionally, the RSI is now approaching the 30 level, which is typically considered the oversold zone. These divergence and oversold signals suggest that bearish momentum has accelerated sharply, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion. As the balance between buyers and sellers begins to stabilize, this may be an early indication that upward corrections could occur in the next few sessions. Key Levels: 5,780 points – Distant resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. A return to this zone could mark the start of a new bullish phase, posing a threat to the current bearish channel. 5,530 points – Near resistance: This area corresponds to neutral levels seen in recent weeks. It may become a target zone for potential corrective upward moves. 5,388 points – Key support zone: This level matches the lowest prices since September 2024 and is where the price is currently consolidating. If the index breaks decisively below this level, it could lead to a more extended bearish channel in the short term. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
1
June 2026 Sp500 will be at 7000 pipsThis is a corrective move. Trump wanted this to deal with the US debt. Everything is smoke a Trump crash. Nothing else. In June 2026 Sp500 will top at 7000 pips in a massive EW 5. Now we are in EW 4. It will take some time to settle the dust as you can see. Be ready, because after Sp500 bottoms out around 4700-4900 pips we will see a MOASS in the next year. After that, be ready, as well, to see a massive crash to 2500 pips that we will see at the end of 2028.
SP:SPXLong
by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez
1
Trump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds SharplyTrump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds Sharply As shown in the chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the index is currently trading near the 5,500 level. This result is highly encouraging, considering that as recently as yesterday morning, the index was hovering around 4,900. Why Have Stocks Risen? The strong rebound seen yesterday evening was triggered by a statement from the US President — he announced a 90-day delay in the implementation of wide-ranging global trade tariffs, which had originally been unveiled on 2 April and led to a sharp drop in the index (as indicated by the arrow). However, this does not apply to China, for which tariffs were not delayed but increased. "Due to the lack of respect China has shown towards global markets, I am raising the tariff imposed on China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately," said Donald Trump, according to media reports. Overall, US stock markets responded positively to the news, and Goldman Sachs economists have withdrawn their US recession forecasts. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) Despite yesterday’s sharp rebound, the stock market remains in a downtrend (as indicated by the red channel). From a bullish perspective: → A Double Bottom pattern (A–B) has formed around the 4,900 level; → Price has moved into the upper half of the channel. From a bearish perspective: → Bulls must overcome key resistance near the psychological 5,000 level; → While tariffs have been delayed, they have not been cancelled. As such, the risk of an escalating trade war is likely to continue putting pressure on the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in the coming months. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
Retracement complete?This is absolutely beautiful. Rode some of the move down (should have stayed in longer!) but I think potentially the downward technical move may be approaching an end, at least near term. Long term, if the fundamental issue of tariffs and recession risk does not subside, we may see much lower levels given that we hit the upper end of a trendline that goes from 2000 and 2008 highs. I have more thoughts on this, but will revisit and do an update on the plot a month from now.
SP:SPX
by unknownreference
1
US500: Trend Shift - Potential Break of Key Support LevelsThis analysis focuses on the US500 chart, a representation of the S&P 500 index, a key indicator of the US stock market's performance. The chart displays price action over a 4-hour timeframe, offering a medium-term perspective. The analysis aims to identify potential support levels and assess the likelihood of further bearish movement. 2. Key Findings and Supporting Evidence: Bearish Trend: The chart clearly shows a prevailing downtrend. The price has been making lower highs and lower lows, signifying strong selling pressure. Breakdown of Rising Wedge: A rising wedge pattern, often considered a bearish reversal pattern, is visible between March 11th and March 27th. The subsequent breakdown from this wedge has confirmed the bearish sentiment and suggests a continuation of the downtrend. Potential Support Levels: The chart highlights three potential support levels: 5500 (Current Level): The price is currently hovering around this level. A break below this level could trigger further selling. 5504.2 (First Target): This level is marked as the first potential target for the bearish move. 5441.3 (Second Target): This level represents a more significant support and a deeper potential target. Trading Strategy Indication: The chart suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, with entry around the current level (5500) and targets at the identified support levels. The stop-loss is placed above the recent high to manage risk. High Volatility: The sharp price swings and the length of the red (bearish) candles indicate high volatility, suggesting strong momentum behind the downtrend. 3. Relevant Data and Statistics (Inferred): Timeframe: 4-hour chart. Index: US500 (S&P 500 equivalent). Recent High: Approximately 5800. Recent Low: Approximately 5486.7. Potential Support Levels: 5500, 5504.2, 5441.3. 4. Discussion of Implications and Potential Future Trends: Market Sentiment: The breakdown from the rising wedge and the continued bearish momentum suggest a shift in market sentiment towards increased pessimism. Economic Factors: The downtrend could be influenced by various economic factors, such as rising interest rates, inflation concerns, or geopolitical uncertainties. Risk Management: Traders should exercise caution and implement proper risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders, due to the high volatility. Potential for Rebound: While the current trend is bearish, it's essential to acknowledge the possibility of a rebound or consolidation at the support levels.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by ultreosforex
1
Could See a Huge Pop in a Bull Trap I think the odds of this turning into a spectacular short are unusually high for indices but even if so there could be some massive stop gunning to come first. I've a big bearish bias into a rip but it would likely be exceptional rally if I have the idea right. Picked up some longs targeting 5800. Ideally looking to make some profit and use it to bankroll the short attempt. Would dump these quite quickly if structure broke. ATR is too big to mess about.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by holeyprofit
1