SPIUSD trade ideas
US 500 – A New Record Peak or Reversal in the Week AheadSo far in July, the US 500 has recorded multiple all-time highs on its way to an eventual peak of 6294 on Thursday (July 10th), from which it finally succumbed to some profit taking into the weekend, leading to a small Friday sell off to close at 6255 (-0.4%).
Along the way traders have ignored mixed US economic data, and more importantly they have, for the most part, shrugged off President Trump’s increasingly aggressive approach to tariffs, choosing instead to focus on economic resilience, renewed AI optimism and an improving outlook for the Q2 corporate earnings season that kicks fully into gear in the coming days.
In terms of tariffs, the fact that there is now a new August 1st deadline to concentrate on may be taking away some of the immediate urgency for the announcement of trade deals, although these issues still remain important and on-going, highlighted by President Trump's weekend social media announcement of 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, if a better deal cant be reached in the next 3 weeks.
With regard to corporate earnings, the major US banks like JP Morgan (Tuesday before the open) and Bank of America (Wednesday before the open) report this week. Both company’s share prices have seen strong gains since the April lows, so traders will be eagerly awaiting their actual numbers. They will also be keen to hear the thoughts of the bank CEOs on future earnings, bad debt provisions and the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy moving forward. Only last week, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, warned market complacency towards potential tariff risks.
In terms of scheduled economic data. Tuesday’s US CPI (1330 BST) and Wednesday’s PPI release (1330 BST) stand out. Traders are sensitive to US inflation updates and have been watching over the last several months for signs that tariffs are pushing up prices. So far this hasn’t been the case but these new releases may tell a different story.
All of these issues could impact risk sentiment and the direction of the US 500 index in the next 5 trading days. Certainly, the early open has been impacted by President Trump's weekend tariff announcement, with the US 500 currently down 0.46% at 6227 (0800 BST).
The technical outlook could also be an important factor in determining price moves.
Technical Update: Assessing the Move to A New Record High
Last week appears to have seen a slowing in the speed of the recent price strength, but a new all-time high was still posted at 6294 on Thursday. It could be argued that this activity maintains what is still a more constructive pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows that have materialised since the April 7th downside extreme of 4799.
However, there is no guarantee this price activity will continue to see new all-time highs posted, so we need to be aware of potential support and resistance levels that may influence price activity.
Possible Support Levels:
If last week’s possible slowing in upside price momentum develops into a new phase of price weakness, a support level that traders might now be watching could be 6148.
This 6148 level is equal to both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June 23rd to July 10th strength and the current level of the rising Bollinger mid-average. Closes below 6148 might suggest a more extended phase of weakness back to 6058, the lower 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, possibly further if this in turn gives way.
Possible Resistance Levels:
Having been capped by the 6294 all-time high last week, sellers may continue to be found at this level, so this might prove to be the first potential resistance if fresh attempts at price strength over the coming week develop.
Closing defence of 6294 may need to be watched if challenged, as successful breaks above this level might suggest an extension of the uptrend pattern currently evident in price activity. Such closing breaks higher may well suggest price strength towards 6418, the 200% Fibonacci extension level of the recent price decline.
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S&P 500 (US500) maintains strong bullish momentum.S&P 500 (US500) maintains strong bullish momentum.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (US500) holds a strong bullish structure, continuing to print higher highs and higher lows above diverging EMAs, signaling sustained upward momentum.
RSI has eased from overbought levels, now hovering below 70, while price consolidates sideways near recent highs, a typical pause before potential continuation.
ADX remains elevated above DI+ and DI-, with DI+ above DI–, confirming trend strength and ongoing bullish momentum.
A breakout above the 6300 all-time high would confirm a bullish continuation, with the next upside target near 6500 based on the flagpole projection.
Conversely, a drop below 6200 may trigger a deeper pullback toward the 6050 support zone.
Fundamental Outlook
Corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector, continue to exceed expectations, providing significant support to the index. Analysts project continued earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, with profits expected to grow by approximately 9% year-over-year in 2025, reinforcing confidence in the index’s rising fundamental valuation.
Markets are now pricing in earlier Fed rate cuts, driven by evolving economic data and political pressure.
Economic data such as stronger-than-expected retail sales and unemployment claims, though the latter could reduce the likelihood of imminent rate cuts, signal robust consumer demand, which should continue to support economic growth.
by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Major LowI'm buying puts expiring on October 31st, All Hallow's Eve.
I'll give price room to keep melting up to 666 at the farthest, that is my stop level. If we breach that price, then just know that tech is unstoppable and Artificial Intelligence is the Mark of the Beast.
If the market doesn't drop here, then the sky is the limit.
US500 evening analysisMy primary count of bullish price action since 7 April 2025 low sees regular flat (regular flat A, zigzag B, impulse C), impulse C with ending diagonal 5 of (5).
Median line (red line) of pitchfork was never tagged, implies price action eventually returning to origin (5098.6).
Ending diagonal invalid above 6307.2, bears with high reward, low risk opportunity.
Market Mood Sours as Inflation Surprises AgainU.S. stock markets were under pressure on Tuesday after new inflation data came in higher than expected. This has made investors rethink how soon the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates.
What Happened?
● The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded its biggest monthly rise in 5 months.
● Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) jumped by 2.9% compared to last year — more than the Fed's 2% target.
What It Means
● Investors had expected the Fed to cut interest rates multiple times in 2025.
● After the inflation report, they now think the Fed will cut less than expected.
● The chances of a rate cut in September also dropped sharply.
Market Impact
● Bond yields went up — the 10-year U.S. government bond yield rose to 4.49%, making borrowing more expensive.
● Stock futures fell (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq), as higher yields tend to hurt company profits and stock prices.
S&P 500 and Dow Struggle at Resistance
● Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones faced resistance near all-time highs.
● This rejection suggests potential for further short-term pullback, especially if macro pressures like inflation and rate uncertainty persist.
Near-Term Outlook
With inflation running hotter than expected, hopes for early Fed rate cuts have cooled. Traders and investors should remain cautious, manage risk actively, and prepare for continued volatility in the coming weeks.
Risk environment to remain positive? S&P continuation?Despite all the recent tariff concerns, inflation concerns and Middle East worries. The S&P continues to push all tine highs. And 'risk surprises' not withstanding, is likely to do so. Backed up by a solid start to ratings season, especially from Netflix.
In the currency space, that should mean the JPY remains weak. And I'm cutoutting recent JPY strength due to profit taking ahead of weekend elections. But moving into the new week, i'll be looking for JPY short opportunities.
SPX: Long-Term Strength and Opportunity
SPX: Long-Term Strength and Opportunity
The S&P 500 (SPX) on this monthly timeframe clearly illustrates a powerful long-term uptrend, where each significant pullback has consistently presented a valuable buying opportunity. Most recently, the market effectively retested and bounced off the established long-term trendline, even amidst geopolitical concerns such as the April low experienced when tariffs were announced, underscoring the underlying bullish resilience. This sustained trajectory suggests continued upward momentum, reaffirming the 'buy the dip' strategy within this robust market environment.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
SPX - Next Target is 7000- SPX is currently trading around 6200 after breakout previous all time high.
- Price has formed a nice broadening wedge pattern and currently heading towards the next resistance line.
- We can expect a slight correction upt o 6100, and reversal towards 7000.
- I'm expecting SPX to hit 7000 target by Q1 of 2026.
Trade Opportunity
Entry: 6200
TP1: 6400
TP2: 6600
TP3: 6800
TP4: 7000
SL at: 6057
Stay tuned frequent updates
Cheers
GreenCrypto
SPX : How to play this DPrice has now reached our target as anticipated. The question is, when do we SELL?
Anyway, for those who follow the D, I am sure it has saved you guys a lot of trouble. At least you know where/when to start SELLING. Many others who started selling EARLy had all lost their money.
As we can see, there are 3 D's. Price can still move UP to 6,800. Bear that in mind. Or has already reached the max at 6,291!!!
Price is at where they are, there are 2 choices:
a) SELL now and SL @ 6,300
b) SELL when price touched the lower D @ 6,140 with SL @ 6,291
Whichever way, the R/R is still FANTASTIC.
It is true that MARKET MAKER might still take advantage and try to screw short sellers. But even they would find it hard at the D. For even they need to respect it a bit.
If you know your D, you trade safer.
Good luck.
S&P 500 H4 | Approaching a multi-swing-low supportThe S&P 500 (SPX500) is falling towards multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,220.89 which is multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 6,170.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support.
Take profit is at 6,299.72 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Is SP500 / US M2 Money Supply telling us a story?Historically this ratio has inflected from key levels. Last week the upper boundary of what 8 would call a normal range has acted as support. If history rhymes to dot com bubble, this AI bubble can bounce from these levels and see an increase until Q4 2026, then a sharp fall will follow. To the lower boundary of that normal range.
S&P 500 consolidating at all-time highsOf late, we have seen price action on the S&P 500 consolidate around all-time highs of 6,290 and is on track to form a small ascending triangle. The nearest support to note resides at the 1W level of 6,121, closely shadowed by a 1M support from 6,040.
Based on the current technical picture, this clearly remains a buyers’ market.
- FP Markets Research Team
SPX: earnings sentiment aheadPrevious week was another optimistic week on financial markets. Regarding the approaching deadline for a delay in the application of trade tariffs set by the US Administration, which came due on July 9th, the market did not show much of a concern. The green trend line of the S&P 500 continued during the week, where the index managed to reach another new all time highest level on Thursday, at 6.290. During the previous week there has not been any currently important US macro data posted, in which sense, the market sentiment remained optimistic. However, Friday's news regarding trade tariffs spoiled a bit of an up-trend, so the index ended the week, just a bit lower from its ATH level, at 6.259.
Weekly tariffs news include a 35% imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, and 50% on goods imported from Brazil in the U.S. There are also some comments on a potential increased universal 10% tariff on the majority of other nations, noting 15% and 20%, as well as a 50% tariff on copper. Analysts are noting that the market is already adjusted to the comments regarding trade tariffs, in which sense, there are no more strong market reactions on any incoming news.
The week ahead brings some important US macro data, as well as gearing up for the earnings season, starting with major banks like JPMorgan. The June inflation data as well as PPI will be posted in the week ahead, closing with University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. This data might bring back some volatility to the S&P 500, however, the general investors sentiment remains positive at this moment.
SPX 6300 Highs to 6200 Lows - Watch Key LevelsThis week earnings season kicks off
-Notables include JPM, GS, BAC, WFC, NFLX, KMI, PEP and others
US Inflation (CPI and PPI) this week
-forecasts are showing HIGHER inflation
-consumers care, but markets may not
6300-6350 key resistance area for SPX
6200 key support area for SPX
If we break the 6200 floor, there's room to fall to 6000-5700 to find stronger support
I discuss the 50 day moving averarages on the S&P and Nasdaq as levels to watch
For the remainder of the month...
7/18 July Monthly Expiration
7/30 US FOMC (with Press Conference)
8/1 US Non-Farm
8/1 US Tariff Deadline (per Trump)
Markets will have to really love a slew of good earnings and good news to see more highs and melt-ups through this typically bumpy season (Aug-Sep)
Thanks for watching!!!
SPX500 in a Powerful Wave 3 Expansion – New Highs on the HorizonMarket Analysis – SPX500 (S&P 500 Index CFD)
The SPX500 is currently exhibiting a strong bullish structure, consistent with the characteristics of an Elliott Wave 3 extension. This wave phase is typically the most powerful and impulsive part of a bullish cycle, often driven by increasing market confidence, strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and institutional accumulation.
After completing a textbook corrective Wave 2, the index has broken key resistance levels with strong momentum, confirming the beginning of Wave 3. What sets this phase apart is its capacity to generate accelerated gains, often surpassing expectations and historical highs.
Key signs supporting the Wave 3 hypothesis:
High volume breakout from consolidation zones.
Higher highs and higher lows structure on multiple timeframes.
Confirmation from supporting indicators such as RSI holding above 50 and MACD showing strong upward momentum.
What’s next?
As long as market structure remains intact and no significant bearish divergence appears, we can expect multiple new all-time highs to be formed during this wave. Traders should look for retracement entries using Fibonacci levels (e.g., 38.2% or 50% pullbacks) to ride the trend while managing risk carefully.
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains strong. Strategic buying during minor corrections could offer favorable risk-reward setups throughout the progression of this wave.