SPX: Buy ideaBuy idea on SPX as you see on the chart after the breakout with force the vwap and the resistance line by a big green candle.Longby PAZINI198
SPX: correction in H2 2024?During the past week, the SPX had some notable movements. The index closed at 5.460 on Friday, marking a slight decline of 0.11% within the week after a dip of 0.41% on Friday. Friday's trading session came with strong volatility after the release of PCE data. The trading range was between levels of 5.522 and 5.452. The inflation in May, measured through PCE, was standing at 2.6%, the lowest annual rate within the last three years. At the same time, the University of Michigan sentiment figures were better from market forecast, rising to 68.2. Overall the markets technical indicators remain mixed, with some analysts suggesting a potential for continued bullish momentum, while others note the risks of overbought conditions. Analysts from JPMorgan in their mid-year outlook, noted a challenging environment for the continuation of the stock bull market, which was generally supported by several stocks within the tech industry. Still, JPMorgan did not change their target for S&P 500 for this year, which is 4.200. The bank estimates that the short reversal in the stock market might be expected during the second half of 2024. They have also noted that the strong rise in indices in a Q4 of 2023 was supported by the expectations on four Fed's rate cuts during the course of 2024, which has not occurred. Despite the recent drop, the S&P 500 index has shown impressive performance over the year. by XBTFX13
SPX500 H4 | Falling to pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,460.30 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,382.001 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 5,532.83 which is a level that aligns with the all-time high. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.Long03:09by FXCM118
SPX500USD ( UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE ) ( 1H )SPX500USD HELLO TRADERS Tendency the price stabilizing below turning level at 5,488 , indicates under bearish pressure PRICE MOVEMENT : the price stabilizing below turning level at 5,488 , indicates to reach a support level, have two condition to reach this level , first condition corrective 5,488 before dropping to 5,438 , the second condition in a direct manner reach around 5,378 , if the breaking turning level at 5,488 , the price of the spx500usd reach a new historical peak , but reaches the resistance level early around 5,524 , after create new resistance level at 5,561 TARGET LEVEL : TURNING LEVEL : 5,488 RESISTANCE LEVEL : 5,524 , 5,561 SUPPORT LEVEL : 5,438 , 5,378 Shortby ArinaKarayi4
S&P 500 Analysis: Concerning Market BehaviourS&P 500 Analysis: Concerning Market Behaviour On Friday, data was released showing that inflation in the US slowed down in May. According to ForexFactory, the actual monthly Core PCE Price Index was 0.1%, which matched the forecasts (last month’s PCE was 0.3%). Reuters reports that: → Prices for recreational goods, as well as for vehicles, furniture, and durable household appliances, dropped significantly. → This news reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve might begin to cut interest rates later this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market prices now indicate a 63% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, compared to a 55% probability a month ago. Monetary policy easing should be perceived as bullish news for the market, however… While the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) initially rose in the hours following the publication, it dropped to the week's lows by the end of trading. This bearish market behaviour amidst positive news of slowing inflation is concerning. Today, the price of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that bulls are trying to recover from Friday's decline. They might be aiming to resume the upward trend that has been in place in 2024. How successful could this be? According to the technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart: → The price action is forming a fan of supports (shown with blue lines) that are sequentially being broken from top to bottom. This is a sign of weakening demand. → On Friday, the price slightly surpassed the historical high (indicated with an arrow) but then sharply plummeted. Another bearish sign. Currently, the price of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is within the range of 5454-5520, which can be interpreted as bulls being exhausted while bears are not yet ready to push the price down. If the former do not find a fundamental incentive, it may lead to the latter taking the initiative. Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.by FXOpen1110
es selles takes ALH loking for sell in IFVG 4H OR CE CICK DAILY TARGET WEEKLY FVGShortby MimoTrader_11
SPX500 sellsi love this Play better than Nasty Nas and Dirty 30 i just want to see a deeper pull back before looking for the sell honestly but we will see what she wants to do.Shortby buildtolast0
Technological evolution, while there's still hesitant people? We're entering a phase where new financial systems are being built and run on Bitcoin. We're entering a new age of LLM's powered entirely by NVDA, DELL & TSLA furiously adopting the new computing model. TSLA self driving, Robotaxi, Optimus (robots), DELL? Yet to see how it plays out but it looks like TSLA will be somehow using them in their business model. DELL entering Ai + Bitcoin thought processes, SMCI offering data centres access to this setup. Next up APPL entering AI, MSFT, AMD yet to enter. Looks like the most bullish setup we've ever had in modern history. The only way to avoid a debt crisis is to go full forward and fund this new age tech and hope it works and forget about inflation. The .COM bubble had a healthy reset leaving us with technology we use everyday enhancing the quality of life. In a future where majority of workers are Robots and "Ai" now handles complex task that cost the most to maintain, inflation, CPI, Interest rates may become a thing of the past replaced by a new economic system / model. Longby CassandraCapital222
Debate - Good Season for StocksFundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see SPX500: - Nvidia leads, AI theme - Pre-election debates: seasonals are skewed to the upside - General resistance of stocks lately Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: 3:1 Risk: 0.28% Longby Cherry94Updated 0
Markets Performed MUCH better Under TRUMP!There is a new Democratic Propaganda campaign going around which is stating the Stock Market performed MUCH better under Biden. This is completely FALSE. the DNC is preying upon ignorant bystanders who have no knowledge about the economy nor how to read a chart. The Stock Market performed 14% better with Trump in office! Wake TF up! You're being lied to and following like a bunch of blind sheep!by jonniekingUpdated 223
Bubble Blow Off Thesis Before we get into the TA, let's talk a bit about how a bubble forms. We're defining a bubble as a progressively aggressive uptrend that results in a draw down of at least 70% - and this being something that happens over a long period of time. We can stage a bubble; Stage 1 - Ignorance or indifference No one knows and no one cares. There is no bubble. There's a thing, a narrative to go with that thing and a handful of people talking about why they think it's a great thing. Stage 2 - Acknowledgement and Mockery More people become aware of the thing. Not the wider public, but people who are in spaces to know about things. It becomes known but is mostly a joke to those who consider themselves in the loop. Those outside of this probably have still not heard of it. Stage 3 - Fad The thing starts to put in some good performance but it's often peppered with crash events. It becomes more known and heard of because it its performance but there's an overwhelming feeling that this is just a fad. People expect (And often want) it to fail. Stage 4 - Hard to ignore In stage 4 the first small bubble forms. Price moves to the upside get really wild. Pullbacks shallow out and price ends up going parabolic. By this time, everyone is getting to hear about it. There's still a lot of sceptics but there's also a lot more attention. Stage 5 - First Wash Out Those who come in at stage 4 are not in for a good time. Crashes are coming. These crashes take away a lot of the optimism that was built up in stage 4 and give a strong sense that the bear views on this were right all along. It was just a fad. Stage 6 - Exceed all expectations Stage 6 is the real bubble. What felt like a bubble in the earlier stages which now appears to have popped is about to be dwarfed. The following move will be so much larger than the previously moves that it will later appear as a minor blips in the chart rather than the huge bubble and bust they are. There are lots of new investors. All projecting the gains of yesteryear onto their own investment future. Stage 7 - Mayhem and Irrationalism The bubble has reached a point of total faith. Everyone has heard of the thing now. Oh how everyone wishes they'd got into the thing in the earlier stages but they'll make up for it now by being really aggressive. Any bearish cases for the thing just look silly - seeing is believing, and all people are seeing is higher prices. During this stage for a while the market does exceptional things based upon people thinking it will do exceptional things (And perhaps also people getting squeezed on shorts. The 20% pop into the Nasdaq high was thought to be a big margin call). People start to expect highly irrational things - because they have been happening. Why should it not go on? It feels like it can never end, but this is the end. Stage 8 - A crash Bubbles frequently pop with a strong crash of around 50%. Things look great. Then one of the V shaped recoveries becomes a big bull trap and it's down 50%. Stage 9 - Bull trap Some sort of low usually made around 50% (And it will crash hard into this, panic selling is common because the drop is so brutal). Stage 10 - The downtrend. Not a crash, a downtrend. Structured sell off with rallies but consistent lower lows. Worst than the crash. You lose money and you lose time. At least a crash is fast. You don't have time to average into terrible prices in a crash. The downtrend is the harsher section of the bubble pop. --- Now, with all that in mind, let's take a trip down the history of US indices. We'll start at the start. When a very smart man had a very clever idea, and John Bogle got rich promoting it. Discussing the evolution from indices being considered "Un-American" to them now being considered so sacred that the central bank and government of America will always protect them. Here's the different stages and the evolving indices narrative; Stage 1 - The stock market index, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), was invented by Charles Dow and Edward Jones in 1896. Their creation provided a benchmark for tracking the performance of the industrial sector initially, expanding later to include 30 large companies across various industries. No one cared. Stage 2 - John Bogle, you've probably heard of him, starts to promote his third investment fund. His first two have went bust. One of them had been the top performing fund for 10 years before Bogle took over and then became the worst performing fund. John wasn't doing too well (He speaks of this himself) - and then someone explained the idea of an index to him, he was able to talk some people into putting money into it. And most people hated it! Like, they were mad. They didn't even just not want to be in it. They called it "Un-American". Bunching stocks together with no concern as to supporting the companies that deserve it. It was almost communism. People didn't like it. Stage 3 - But markets were roaring and the DJI was outperforming managers with their fees. People with big money started to take note and pile in. More indices would be created. By the time the 1990s rolled around not only were indices performing well - we were in a blistering bubble with the new tech index. Stage 4 - Up to that point in time, the peaks in public interest in indexing would have been late 1999 and late 2006 - 2007. The steady gains, reliable recoveries and long term success of indices was hard to ignore. If you took this viewpoint in 1999, it'd be over a decade before you saw markets reliably trending above your entry price again. Stage 5 - The great crisis. When, for a brief period of time, it looked like it would all just end. People really believed all the banks were about to fail. None of the businesses would have any money because they lost it all in the bank failure and the whole idea of a stock market was about to become essentially redundant as there were mass bankruptcies. It was the end. Stage 6 - But of course it was actually the start. The start of the bubble (?). From the 2009 low of 666 (Which really was the price the low was made) we are now up somewhere around 800%. If we made the blow off move shown in the original chart pic it'd been a 1,000% rally from the GFC crash low. Stage 7 - And we have mayhem. People's expectations are wild. Wilder still, many of these optimistic views actually underestimate how well the bull performs. Complete faith has been gained by indices. Far from "Un-American" they are now considered the bedrock on which America stands. Too big to fail. --- So what I am saying is, when you think about it over the full scope it things, it might be a bubble. Now let's get into the Elliot wave. I think the most useful thing when aiming to establish a big Elliot count here is the 2000 and 2008 crashes. Which these were major world changing event at the time, they ended up making a range very much like the "Flat" correction we can see in wave 2. This really suits the rules for a flat wave 2 correction and if we call that a wave 2 correction then there's a sequence of logical conclusions we have to also make. ---- If this is correct when viewed in the context of 5 - 10 years we're extremely high in the rally. So high that people would later consider it to have been very shroud to have thought it might come to an end while we were at this stage of it. However, it does also mean we're inside of a blow off. In the conditions of a blow off the only sane thing to expect is if and when resistance levels are broken price will move quickly and aggressively to the next one. Stop running should be expected to be aggressive. It really is a good time to be paranoid as a bear. It can be worth shorting resistance levels but it's not wise to be stubbornly short. Historic blow offs have been in the 20- 25% range from their last bear trap. This could easily give us 1,000 more points to go if SPX was making a really big long term top. As time goes on I become increasingly macro bearish. Which is saying something, because I started macro bearish. But the smart thing to do at this point is keep getting long breaks of resistance with tight stops. The case for a honest and true blow off move coming over the coming months is highly credible at this point. If you think a big high is coming, I think it's fair to say a move to at least 6,000 would now be most likely to satisfy the typical stop hunt that would come with that (And I think 6,500 a better area to try a big short). I'm starting to think markets might go vertical in the coming months. Amazing conditions for bull trades but I don't think it will be amazing for the bull market. At this point excessively strong moves to 6000 + would seem consistent with a blow off top. by holeyprofit111127
SPX Pullback July 1st-2ndSPX has a gap to fill between 5370 and 5400. If we make a trade lower July first we will fill that gap before seeing new highs. Macd, RSI divergence and Stochastic RSI are all showing downside Momentum. After the gap fill if SPX stays above 5470 it may getLongby jomiaelton110
SPX500USD is almost ready to rise againHi traders, Last week SPX500USD made a bigger correction (wave 4). So next week wait for the break of the lows. After that we could see another upmove for this pair. Trade idea: Wait for the correction down to finish. After that look for a change in orderflow to bullish (close above 4H FVG) to trade longs. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! EduwaveLongby EduwaveTrading6
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 28, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Spooz has exhibited marked downward price action during this week's trading session, swiftly descending on the last trading day of the week from our designated Key Resistance level of 5488. It displays distinctive interim bearish price action characteristics, targeting Mean Support levels at 5449 and 5420. Anticipated renewed upward movement is expected from one of these specified price targets.by TradeSelecter2
Choppy July but bullish overallUsing the S&P 500 index data from Yahoo Finance, I calculated the returns for each July-to-July period from 1962 to 2022 (the most recent data available). Here's the result: Out of 61 periods (1962-2022), the S&P 500 index returned positive for: * 44 periods (72.13%) * 17 periods (27.87%) resulted in negative returns. The positive returns averaged around 7.35% per annum, while the negative returns averaged around -3.77% per annum. Returns (%) - July to July: * 0-5%: 14 times * 5-10%: 15 times * 10-15%: 8 times * 15-20%: 4 times * 20-25%: 2 times * 25-30%: 1 time * >30%: 2 times Keep in mind that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It's essential to consider other factors, such as risk, volatility, and market conditions, before making investment decisions.Longby Time_Oracle1