SPIUSD trade ideas
SPX....An interestng observation!10/4/25
spx....an interesting observation..
index has been travelling between the blue median which is a very strong support and the red median which is a very strong resistance.............this travel started s0me time in 2009....and is still ongoing!
only during 2008/2009 lehman collapse and 2020 covid did the index go below the blue median....
will it slip the blue median again or move north again to retest the red median? only time will tell..
but we have the contours to monitor!
Has SPX formed a bottom?SPX500USD - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Setbacks should be limited to yesterday's low.
We look to buy dips.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
We look to Buy at 4900.5 (stop at 4767.5)
Our profit targets will be 5295.5 and 5365.5
Resistance: 5219.6 / 5350.0 / 5500.0
Support: 5100.0 / 5000.0 / 4812.2
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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SPX weekly sell off confirmedBetter have some cash in hand, if SPX drop more, BTC will drop even more.
Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025, YES)
Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025 Analysis) - by Yuri Duursma
Market Overview: Indices in Bear Market Territory
After a strong start to the year, U.S. equities have stumbled extremely badly in recent weeks. The S&P 500 is currently down about 22% below its February 2025 all-time high (as the time of writing this, Monday 7 april 3AM EST time), the index is trading slightly above $4,800) , while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen roughly 26.5% from its peak – putting it deep into a bear market at $16,325 points. Even the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is in a correction, having slid around 19%+ from its ATH. This broad decline has been accelerated by escalating trade tensions – notably sweeping tariffs announced in early April – which sparked a vicious selloff and the worst week for stocks since 2020 In just the two days following the tariff news, the S&P 500 plunged over 10%, wiping out trillions in market value (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Such rapid, across-the-board declines have investors asking: Is the market finally near a bottom, or is there further pain ahead? This analysis will go over key technical indicators and sentiment gauges as of April 7, 2025 to assess whether a market bottom may be forming.
Volatility and Options Sentiment (VIX, Put/Call Ratio & Implied Volatility)
One classic hallmark of a market bottom is extreme volatility as investors capitulate. The Cboe VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” recently spiked to 60 on April 7, a level not seen since the early stages of the COVID crash in 2020 and the peak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. This move marks a significant shift in sentiment: while earlier in the week the VIX was in the low-30s, this surge indicates a full-blown volatility shock, consistent with historical capitulation events. Such a sharp spike strongly suggests the market is experiencing a climax in fear and forced liquidation. Over the past three decades, VIX readings above 50 have typically occurred only at major market bottoms.
This extreme VIX level adds to the growing body of evidence that fear has reached saturation, and we are potentially witnessing the formation of a durable bottom.
Another critical indicator is the put/call ratio, which reflects how aggressively traders are buying put options versus call options. Initially, the ratio hovered around 0.85, indicating moderate bearishness. However, as of April 6, 2025, the put/call volume ratio surged to 2.06 on SPY options specifically, based on live Barchart data. That means traders are buying more than twice as many puts as calls, a level not seen since the COVID crash.
Further reinforcing the signal, SPY’s open interest put/call ratio stands at 1.68 or 1.64 depending on the scource, with put open interest at 10.99 million contracts compared to 6.72 million calls, according to OptionCharts.io. This skew indicates extreme hedging behavior, consistent with historical panic conditions.
Even more striking is the implied volatility (IV) for SPY options:
• IV (30d): 38.52%
• IV Rank: 101.48%
• IV Percentile: 100%
• Historical Volatility: 27.98%
This means the current implied volatility is higher than 100% of the past year’s readings, signaling maximum premium demand for protection. When IV reaches such extremes, it generally implies that traders are paying record-high prices to hedge downside risk—a common occurrence at or just before market bottoms.
In summary, options sentiment now reflects not just fear, but full-blown capitulation:
• VIX at 60 (multi-year high, extremely rare event)
• Put/Call Volume Ratio at 1.68
• SPY IV at 38.52% with 101.5% IV rank
• Put open interest heavily outweighs calls
Taken together, these suggest an intense bearish consensus that, historically, often occurs just before a reversal. While no single metric predicts a bottom, the convergence of these extreme levels across volatility, positioning, and premium costs dramatically increases the probability that a capitulation low is forming or has just formed.
Market Breadth and Technical Trends
Broad market internals provide further clues about the selloff’s severity. Market breadth – the ratio of advancing to declining stocks – has deteriorated dramatically, reflecting how widespread the downturn is. In late March and early April, down-days were strikingly one-sided. For example, during the week of March 31 which, only 188 stocks on the NYSE rose while 2,662 fell, with a staggering 1,073 stocks hitting new 52-week lows (Markets Diary - WSJ). That means roughly 93% of all NYSE-listed issues declined over that period – an extremely weak breadth reading. Such lopsided selling (where virtually everything is “thrown out”) is often seen in the late stages of a bear move, as even high-quality names get caught in the capitulation. That said, some technicians look for 90% down days (when 90%+ of volume and issues are to the downside) as a classic bottom signal. So far we’ve seen readings in the 80-90% range (e.g. about 81% of S&P 500 stocks fell on March 31) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), but not quite a definitive 90% washout on a single day. The breadth data thus indicates heavy selling pressure, if not a textbook capitulatory flush just yet. But keep in mind this was on march 31st. The real pain came the week after that, with the s&p500 falling 10% in 2 days, a decline I have rarely seen in my 7 year trading career.
Death Cross, might actually signal a bottom instead of a further decline
In terms of trend indicators, the major indices have decisively broken below key moving averages. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all trading well under their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which confirms the intermediate-term downtrend. In fact, the decline has been steep enough that the market turned into a so-called “death cross” pattern – where the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day average. This crossover is a lagging technical signal, but it underscores that momentum has flipped negative. (Notably, many high-flying stocks from last year have already seen “death crosses” of their own.) While ominous, it’s worth remembering that such signals often follow the bulk of a decline – i.e. by the time a death cross occurs, a significant amount of downside has typically already happened. Often, a death cross appears right when stocks are about to bottom. From a contrarian perspective, technical weakness itself can set the stage for a bottom, as oversold conditions and deeply negative momentum sometimes precede eventual stabilization. Still, at this juncture the price trend remains firmly downward, and bulls would want to see indices regain their moving averages or at least flatten out before declaring a true bottom.
Fear & Greed Index: Sentiment at Extreme Fear. REDICULOUS levels (4/100)
Perhaps the clearest evidence of the market’s psychological state comes from CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, a composite of seven market indicators (market momentum, stock strength, breadth, options activity, junk bond demand, volatility, and safe-haven demand). As of early April 2025, this index is deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). In fact, the Fear & Greed reading has collapsed to levels last seen only during major crises – comparable to September 2008 (the Lehman collapse) and March 2020 (the COVID crash) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). Such an abysmal sentiment reading of 4/100 indicates that investor psychology is extraordinarily bearish right now. Anecdotally, panicked retail investors and cautious institutions alike are exceedingly risk-averse – selling stocks, hoarding cash or Treasury bonds, and otherwise assuming the worst. Also, gold hit a new all time high on April 3rd, completely shattering the $3000 mark. Another sign of extreme fear in the markets.
From a contrarian standpoint, extreme fear is usually a super bullish signal. The famous adage by Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” resonates strongly at moments like this (Market and Investor Sentiment for April 2025 | Certuity). An Extreme Fear reading implies that a lot of bad news and pessimism is already “priced in” to the market. Historically, when the Fear & Greed Index is this low, stocks have often been near a bottom or at least poised for a relief rally (because most investors who were inclined to sell have already done so). It suggests the market may be approaching maximum pessimism, a precondition for a durable bottom. However, sentiment alone doesn’t call the bottom – it’s necessary but not sufficient.
We need to also see actual buying interest returning (or catalysts improving) to confirm a turning point. As one market technician noted, “First you get the fear (capitulation), then you need the positive reaction to confirm a low has been made” (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). Right now we clearly have the fear, but we’re waiting to see if buyers step back in to establish a floor. Looking at the volume of the SPDR S&P500 retail ETF trust, we can see that the volume hit 217.97M. This is the highest volume we have seen since January 2022, which was the low before the index at least saw a significant bounce up.
Macroeconomic Backdrop and Market Psychology
Beyond technicals, the broader macroeconomic narrative and investor psychology cycle provide context for whether a bottom is forming. The current selloff has been catalyzed by a specific shock – a global trade war scenario – which raises uncertainty about economic growth and possibly higher inflation leading to raised interest rates. Newly announced U.S. tariffs and swift retaliation from China have led investors to price in a higher risk of recession (which J. Powell confirmed), shattering the complacency that prevailed in late 2024 (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Just a few months ago, many market participants were optimistic (perhaps overly so) about U.S. economic “exceptionalism” and continued earnings growth. Now, that optimism has flipped to extreme fear and disbelief. We see signs of capitulation on the institutional side: some hedge funds have reportedly liquidated their stock portfolios entirely to cut risk, citing a “chaotic” outlook and unclear future (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Margin calls are forcing leveraged investors to sell into the falling market, adding to the sense of forced liquidation. This kind of “get me out at any price” trading behavior is typical of late-stage bear market panic. However, a chain reaction of margin calls could lead to even bigger losses. (this might also be the reason traders both institutional and retail are panicking)
On the psychological curve, markets appear to be transitioning from the “fear” to “capitulation” phase. Complacency (seen when investors kept buying dips earlier despite warning signs) has definitively evaporated. In its place, despair and panic are increasingly evident – but these are ironically the emotions that precede a market bottom in the classic Wall Street psychology cycle. The saying “darkest before dawn” applies: just when sellers are most exhausted and pessimistic, the groundwork for a bottom is laid. I think the article about margin calls for hedgefunds is a good indication of that. There are also early hints of a possible turn in narrative. For instance, the bond market was rallying tonight (this wasn’t the case onas money seeks safety, and traders are starting to anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts to cushion the economy (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Easier monetary policy or a breakthrough in trade negotiations could serve as a catalyst to stabilize stocks. Always keep the possibility of trade negotiations in mind with trump. You never know what he is up to. He could flip 180 degrees in a second, as we have seen his unpredictability in the first quarter of his presidency term.
It’s also worth considering what the next phase after a bottom might look like: often, markets experience a “disbelief rally” – an initial rebound that many mistrust, thinking it’s just a short-lived bounce. If a bottom is indeed forming around now, any rebound in coming weeks might be met with skepticism (investors calling it a “dead cat bounce” or expecting another drop). Such skepticism is normal in early recovery stages; only after the market consistently stops making new lows do investors shift from disbelief to cautious optimism. For now, though, the predominant macro mood is still one of shell-shock. Economic indicators (e.g. manufacturing data and consumer confidence) have weakened, and corporate earnings outlooks are guarded, all of which justify a cautious stance. The collective psyche has moved toward “prepare for the worst”, which, paradoxically, is what creates the conditions for things to start getting better.
Major indices have undergone a sharp correction, valuations have pulled back, and sentiment is extremely bearish – Fear & Greed is at extreme fear (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ), put/call ratios are elevated (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), and market breadth shows widespread capitulation-like selling (Markets Diary - WSJ). Importantly, these are the kinds of conditions that historically precede market bottoms, as selling pressure eventually exhausts itself and opportunistic buyers step in. There are early anecdotes of capitulation (e.g. hedge funds giving up on stocks) and volatility has surged, indicating peak fear may be near.
However, it is equally important to note what’s absent or uncertain: No obvious positive catalyst has emerged yet to definitively turn the tide. The risk factors (e.g. trade war, recession odds) are still in play, meaning investors could remain skittish. In essence, the market might be forming a bottom, but it has not conclusively confirmed one. Bottoms are only ever obvious in hindsight. In real time, one can merely weigh the evidence. As of April 7, 2025, the evidence leans toward an aging selloff with growing contrarian appeal – the crowd is very fearful, and value is returning – but patience and caution are warranted. Traders will be watching for telltale confirmation signals of a bottom: stabilization of prices above recent lows, a drop in volatility, improvement in breadth (more stocks advancing), and the market’s ability to rally on bad news (indicating selling has dried up).
For investors, the current environment calls for a balanced, objective approach. The conditions are certainly closer to a bottom than they were a few months ago during the greed/complacency phase, but that doesn’t guarantee the exact bottom is in. It helps to remember that “being early” to a bottom is far better than being late to a panic. I think it is time to DCA aggressively into the markets as off 7 april 2025. With fear running high, long-term investors may find opportunities to start nibbling selectively at high-quality stocks trading at a discount, while keeping some powder dry in case of further downside (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). In summary, the U.S. stock market is showing classic signs of bottoming – extreme fear, heavy hedging, and broad weakness – yet until we see the market’s reaction stabilize (and some resolution to macro risks), it’s prudent to remain vigilant. A bottom could be forming, but confirmation will come only with time and subsequent market action, not simply the calendar. Investors should stay disciplined, focus on quality, and be ready for continued volatility as the market seeks out its true bottom.
Sources: Key market statistics and sentiment indicators were referenced from recent analyses and reports, including Reuters, MarketWatch, and investor sentiment surveys (e.g. CNN Fear & Greed Index) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Markets Diary - WSJ). These sources provide context on the April 2025 market conditions, highlighting the elevated volatility (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), bearish options positioning (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), weak market breadth (Markets Diary - WSJ), and extreme fear sentiment (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) that characterize the potential bottoming process.
Technical analysis TA:
As for the technical analysis, my self written indicator (which is also based on various community open scource trading view scripts) Shows that we are back in the equilibrium zone. Furthermore, the stochastic RSI has hit 0 on the weekly, and the regular RSI is sitting at 26.6, the lowest level since the 2020 covid crash. Furthermore the indicator printed an 8/9 on the weeikly chart, with 9 giving a checkmark. Usually an 8 or a 9 signals a bottom. The daily chart is sitting at a 7/9, which makes me think that we are at a bottom, if not EXTREMELY close to one. Right now, we have also hit a key support area, the 2022 all time high before the markets crashed like i predicted (see previous articles)
So TLDR: What is the plan?
Of course, timing the market is risky, however I think this is a good time to Dollar Cost Average very aggressively into the markets. Personally I did my first buy ins on Friday April 4th, and will continue to do so this week. EVEN if we end up crashing further, we will always experience a dead cat bounce. Stocks don’t go down in a straight line. As my stocks are in the profit, i will put my stop losses into the profit as well.
If the stop losses get hit into the profit, we wait what the market does. Maybe we buy again, a few weeks later maybe we will stay out and hold cash. Only time will tell what the best plan is when that happens. There is no point in deciding that right now. TDLR: Bottom is most likely in or VERY, Very close. BUY, but keep some cash at hand for if the market declines even further (or to keep healthy margin requirements if we end up buying with leverage, which is a bit riskier. Don’t time the market, but act appropriately. Opportunities like this create wealth for the brave in extreme fear situations. TIME TO BUY, DCA HARD INTO THE MARKETS, but keep a little bit of cash for if we do end up going lower!!!!!!!!!!!! Personally, I think blue chip stocks are a steal right now. And the buying doesn't stop there as mid caps also provide amazing opportunities right now.
Update on Gold and SPX - 12pmGold looks like an objective short trade again, although testing 3100 first is expected. SPX looks like it's consolidating before the move down I still expect.
US 500 Index – Retracement Holds DeclineAfter one of the most extreme trading days for the US 500 index that we have seen since the pandemic of March 2020, a slightly uneasy calm has descended across markets this morning as traders await the next tariff updates from President Trump and his team of advisors.
Right now it is still unclear whether President Trump would provide an opportunity for individual trading partners to reduce the penalty level or gain exemptions from the reciprocal tariffs that are due to go into force tomorrow.
Traders are also on the lookout for any news from China regarding tariffs or fresh stimulus measures to support the economy, and the announcement of retaliatory actions from the EU are still on the horizon.
What is clear, is that as this unfolds across the rest of today and tomorrow, being prepared for any volatility in the US 500 index that may appear again, with a trading plan, clear assessment of technical levels to deploy any potential stop loss and take profit orders, may well be a solid approach to consider.
Technical Update: US 500 Index - Retracement Holds Decline
During times of market turmoil, where sharp declines in the price of an asset are seen to reverse what was previously a strong phase of strength, traders will often focus on using Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential support levels.
Clearly, global equities have recently entered a period of uncertainty and aggressive price declines. However interestingly, the US 500 index has found support this week at a Fibonacci retracement level, which at least for now, has succeeded in holding declines, and is even starting to see attempts at an upside recovery materialise.
Looking at the weekly chart of the US 500 index above, we can see the latest price capitulation tested 4791, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to February 2025 advance.
Traders may now be asking ‘Do the latest price declines to 4791, represent the extent of the current liquidation in assets, and can upside now emerge again?’
It is currently impossible to answer this question with any true conviction as there is still much to be heard from President Trump regarding tariffs, which will likely dictate future market sentiment and price trends.
However, monitoring important support and resistance levels over the upcoming trading sessions may help us gauge where the next potential directional moves may be seen in the US 500 index.
Possible Support Levels to Monitor:
Having tested the 4791 Fibonacci retracement level and seen a recovery develop from it this week, it may be suggested this remains an on-going downside support focus in price. As such, it may well be closing breaks of this level if seen, that could skew directional risks towards the potential of further declines.
Therefore, closes below 4791 might be an indication that the recent weakness may carry further to the downside, prompting traders to look for possibilities of a more extended decline in price. This may in turn lead to tests of 4474, which is the deeper 62% retracement, maybe even further if this gives way.
Possible Resistance Levels to Monitor:
Having seen the 4791 support hold and prompt the latest recovery moves, some traders may well be looking for the potential of a more sustained recovery in price, even though much will depend on the reaction to any future trade war escalation or easing of tariff concerns.
By calculating Fibonacci retracements on the latest US 500 index decline, we may be able to gauge possible target resistance levels if a recovery in price is to emerge.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the February 2025/April 2025 sharp sell-off stands at 5313. This may be an interesting level to watch, as if it were broken on a closing basis traders may start to look for fresh attempts to push towards higher levels once more. In this case, the 50% retracement resistance level which stands at 5474, and the 61.8% level at 5635, could be relevant.
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SP500 new ath soonBased on Elliott Wave Theory, one could expect the final wave of the bullish impulse. If it achieves an all-time high, speculation about continued upward momentum could persist. However, if it fails to surpass its previous high, it could lead to a deeper correction.
Low Here Would be Consistent with a New High Coming Making a low in the general area in which we trade now would be highly consistent with a bullish trend development.
If this is the low around 5200, then I think it's quite likely we see a new high.
Profits should be locked in on all previous bear entries given.
If the local downtrend breaks here, the bear move is likely over.
The Bear's Dilemma: Bull trap styles and bets. Anyone of a bearish persuasion always runs into the same issue when we rip like this.
If you know bull trap formation, you know they form like this. It's always tempting to fade- but if you are objective about whether you'll be right at all as a bear and also consider the different style of bull traps, you have to be aware of the risk. Because your idealised signal is stupidly strong move up, but this can also happen when a new high will be made.
Successfully dealing with bull traps in such a way as to profit big when right and do okay even if not, you have to think ahead.
If you follow my work you'll know I have a rather static style as to how I try to do this. When we're dropping into big supports, I always tend to discuss these different types of bull traps and I always try to buy where I think the low is. Citing that not only am I doing it for the immediate chance to make money long- but it's an important part of my bear plan later.
I know if I get the first trade right even just betting on a rally to the shallow retracement level, I catch between half and a third of the move up. This is going to cover my risk for what I'll spend if I get on all the bear traps and all of those setups fail. It allows me to get on them on with increasing RR. More scope for profit with a well predefined risk.
Into a rally I always look to fade the shallow bull trap. Very often that at least produces a dip. So I can often position for a 1:10 or better RR trade and generally will breakeven on the attempt if I get it wrong. Only in the times of extreme run-away moves does this fail. And I accept those are conditions I should expect to lose in.
If and when I think I am seeing signs of the shallow trap failing I get long targeting the 76 trap. Hitting this trade can be extremely lucrative and it allows me to either be sure a net profit on the swing or have the option to size my bear bets bigger aiming for a big jackpot if it works out.
When buying I consider all the main ops/risks.
Here's the new high move mentioned into the drop.
Here's the classic 76 which would also present as a head and shoulders (and butterfly) pattern now.
When I plan my bull trap trading I am always wanting to buy at the green arrows and short at the red.
I also do this with the assumption I'll be entirely wrong and lose all of my bear bets, and I try to structure it in such a way that will be massively net profitable if I hit my bull trades.
Bulls tend to show up on my posts being somewhat rude any time I do this- but this is outperforming buy and hold. At worse, I'm level when we get back to the top. Usually, I'm considerably ahead. And in the one instance the market makes the big reversal - I know I'm going to be left standing. Perhaps standing in very good stead if I get it right.
Using this basic template I find extremely useful for dealing with bull trap betting.
It provides a functional and practical framework to be able to benefit from most types of moves. Doesn't pretend to know the future. Is essentially direction agnostic. Can be quantified as profitable with backtesting against both rallies that make a new high and crash events - often with extreme outlier results in crash events.
Whatever happens, and whatever news drives it, this is the plan I'll execute on so long as the market moves in a way relatively similar to my template.
S&P 500 Market Analysis 04/05/2025The S&P 500 is currently undergoing a significant correction, having dropped approximately 17% from its all-time high. This decline coincides with renewed policy rhetoric from the U.S. President, particularly surrounding trade tariffs, which has historically triggered market uncertainty. This scenario echoes past events, where similar pullbacks followed a peak in parabolic price action. Notably, in 2022, after a parabolic surge, the S&P 500 dropped 27%, and in 2018, the index saw a 21% decline after a similar spike. These historical patterns suggest that the longer and more extended the parabolic rise, the deeper the eventual correction tends to be.
From a technical standpoint, the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has consistently acted as a reliable support level during past downturns. In both 2018 and 2022, the S&P 500 retraced down to this EMA before finding a bottom and beginning its recovery. Currently, the 200-week EMA sits around the 4,740 level, which could serve as a critical support zone that the index may attempt to retest before any meaningful rebound occurs.
In addition to this technical level, the SilentTrader Indicator—a proprietary tool analyzing multiple timeframes—has signaled bearish momentum across all major timeframes. The indicator is showing selling signals on the weekly, daily, and intraday charts, reinforcing the idea that the market remains under heavy downward pressure. The alignment of these bearish signals across multiple timeframes suggests that the S&P 500 could continue to face selling pressure in the near term.
Considering these factors, the current correction appears to be far from over. With macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential for continued tariff-related concerns, a retest of the 4,740 level—or possibly even lower—remains a likely scenario. Traders and investors should remain cautious and consider tightening risk management strategies until there is a clearer indication of stabilization or a trend reversal.
#SP500 #stockmarket #forextrading #forex #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #ethereum
The Easy trade? SPY had a relentless sell off after open, which seems TOO easy for shorts. I explain why I think this may be a C wave with another move up starting tomorrow. Possibilities only.
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce backTrump threatened a 50% import tax on China, adding confusion over his global tariffs. China promised to hit back and moved to support its markets.
Stocks bounced slightly as investors looked for bargains, but uncertainty around U.S. trade policy remains. U.S. Treasuries rose after falling on Monday.
Wall Street is getting more cautious. BlackRock downgraded U.S. stocks, and Goldman Sachs warned the selloff could turn into a longer bear market.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5273
Resistance Level 2: 5379
Resistance Level 3: 5510
Support Level 1: 4815
Support Level 2: 4700
Support Level 3: 4585
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SPX repeating 2022 patternI had said in a earlier post( see link to Related publication) that Vix is indicating we will be in 2022 style market and so far indeed it is, except for the breakdown from the wedge last week.
Expect the price to fluctuate within the wedge to consolidate before a breakout
The comparison shows close similarity of the wedge and path (except last week)
SPX500: The trendline show a bottom in Sept 2025 at 4700 We're being magnetically pulled toward the trendline bottom around 4700.
Based on the current MACD and RSI signals, the bearish scenario could continue until September–October 2025. This correction is very similar to the one from 2022.
There will be some dead cats bounces, but do not be fooled, the MACD is reseting hard.
Stay sharp. Be ready.
DYOR.
Are we done with the slide, or not? US indices are suffering right now, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:US500
MARKETSCOM:US100
MARKETSCOM:US30
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Trump Pump Just Broke the Charts12% Up in a Day. Now What?
What a difference a headline makes.
Monday:
Markets dump. Panic. Retail sells the low.
We hit our bearish targets like clockwork.
Wednesday:
Markets explode like they found a cheat code.
SPX rallies 9.5% in a day.
Nasdaq? A completely unhinged 12% up.
All because… tariffs might be paused again.
You can’t make this stuff up.
But you can trade it.
When Euphoria and Edge Collide
The Trump Pump Parade
After last week’s fake-news-induced dump, we now have headline euphoria.
No earnings beat. No rate cut. No macro shift.
Just one rumour:
“Trump might pause tariffs.”
Cue the biggest one-day rally since 1933.
Nasdaq: +12%
SPX: +9.5%
SPX now kissing the 5400 bull trigger level
Financial media?
Throwing a rave.
Retail?
FOMOing back into the top.
It’s madness.
But it’s not structure.
The System Trader’s Reality
Meanwhile, in the AntiVestor camp…
The bear swing is still on but under review.
Why? Because we trade levels, not vibes.
And 5400 has always been our pivot.
We’re now sitting right on it, with overnight futures starting to drift lower – like the market just realised it left the oven on.
The decision zone is here.
Hold 5400?
It’s time to shift gears.
Bull thesis activates. Tag ‘n Turn setups. Bull Pulse Bars. GEX Bulls Eye trades.
Lose 5400?
We go right back to feeding the bears.
It’s not emotional. It’s mechanical.
This is what system trading looks like.
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Expert Insights: The Market Owes You Nothing
Mistake:
Getting emotional after missing a rally or overstaying a short.
Fix:
Use a system with defined levels.
5400 was always the line.
You don’t need to guess the pivot. You just need to trade it when it confirms.
This rally may be overblown.
But until the market proves otherwise, you don’t fight the tape – you ride it with structure.
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Fun Fact
The last time the Nasdaq moved more than 10% in a day?
March 13th, 2020 – the height of COVID panic buying.
That rally was followed by… a further drop.
Then a V-bottom.
Then a massive bull market.
So… is this the start of something new?
Or just another overcaffeinated bounce?
History says: Don’t decide early. Let price confirm.
SP500: Is This the 2025 Correction? Or Just Another Bounce?Looking at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 with RSI and key support trendlines, it’s clear we’ve entered a historically important level.
🔍 Context:
2020 → COVID Crash, RSI bottomed 💥
2022 → Bear Market, RSI again flagged a major drop 📉
2023 → Healthy correction, price respected trendline support
2025? → RSI flashing oversold, price testing the long-term trendline again.
📊 RSI is approaching the same low levels as the previous two macro shocks — is this a signal of another reversal opportunity? Or could this time be different?
🚨 If we break below this trendline convincingly, it could open the door for a deeper bear leg. But if we hold, we might just see another bounce-back rally like in 2020 and 2022.
📈 Watch for confirmation:
A strong bounce with bullish RSI divergence = potential long
Breakdown + volume spike = more downside ahead
Let’s see if the trendline holds up — it has for 5 years… 👀
#SP500 #Correction #BearMarket #RSI #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketUpdate #2025Outlook #StockMarketIdeas
SPX Update. High was called months ago. Now what!4940 is the .38% Retracement. If the current down move is a wave 4 we should find support bounce around this level. It can still move lower but the count loses confidence if we break the top of wave 1 (4809).
401(k)s: A Safe Bet or a Rigged Game?In 2008, the S&P 500 dropped 57% at its lowest, wiping out decades of savings for millions of Americans. People who were 5–10 years from retirement lost everything overnight—and they had no way out.
And here’s the problem:
• 401(k)s are heavily stock-weighted, especially those “target-date” funds that adjust based on age—but not fast enough in a crash.
• No active protection. These funds don’t hedge, use stop-losses, or rotate into cash. If the market dumps, you’re just riding it down.
• No control or transparency. Most people don’t even know what they’re invested in unless they dig deep into fund holdings.
It’s no coincidence that the same Wall Street firms managing 401(k)s make money shorting crashes or getting bailouts, while regular people are told to “just wait it out.” Sure, that might work over decades, but what if you’re close to retirement? Or just don’t want to wait 10 years for a recovery?
The Harsh Reality
• 401(k)s aren’t really optional. They’re the main retirement plan in the U.S., so most people are forced into them with few alternatives.
• Most people don’t actively manage them. They pick a default option, get put into a target-date fund, and hope for the best. That’s where the “sheep” feeling comes in.
• You can’t easily exit. There are penalties for withdrawing early, so in a crash, you’re locked in like a prisoner or financial refugee, while the “big boys” cash out first.
It’s not a scam in a legal sense—but it is a system that favors the knowledgeable and punishes the passive. Those who don’t study markets, adjust their portfolios, or take active control end up paying the price. And sadly, that’s the majority.
The PrecipiceWe are at an important level and time on the SP500. My feeling is we will have a rally - it may be brief, but I do think at the end of the day 4800 will hold even if they undercut it first. Targets on the upside could be 5200 (top of range) and possibly the 18 monthly ma at 5400.
SPX POSSIBLE RECOVERY UP TO 7000-7500first quarter wasn't bright for spx. but it can recover at moderate phase.
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA?
A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun.
A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term
During Trump’s first presidency:
First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop
Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline
China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall
Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension.
This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic.
Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier)
Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies.
So why didn’t the market react earlier?
📉 Because this isn’t about Tariffs . It’s about Wave 4.
The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000.
The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5
Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse.
Potential triggers:
Overleveraged markets
Global debt bubbles
Geopolitical instability
Inflation shockwaves
AI and tech overvaluation
Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?
This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash?
The answer may be both.
✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5
⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II
The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall.
Key Takeaways:
Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash
Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs
Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008
Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause
Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
