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US 500 (SPI) / US Dollar

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Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.13.2024🔮 📅 Tue Jan 14 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 PPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.4%) 📅 Wed Jan 15 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%) 📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: -0.3 (prev: 0.2%) ⏰ 10:30am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M 📅 Thu Jan 16 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 Retail Sales m/m: 0.6% (prev: 0.7%) 📊 Unemployment Claims: 210K (prev: 201K) 📊 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -7.0 (prev: -16.4) 📅 Fri Jan 17 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Building Permits: 1.46M (prev: 1.49M) 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: The markets will get a few days of a bullish run. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
Marz: Williams Forecast, Williams %R, Lead-Lag- Overlay Larry Williams annual forecast (dots on forecast are month markers aligned with chart) - Williams %R: When above 80, market is strong, if goes below 80 sell - Williams %R: When below 20, market is week, if goes above 20 buy - Williams %R: Between 80 & 20, buy/sell reversals - Use Michael Gayed weekly Lead-Lag Risk-On/Risk-Off as confirmation - Use 200 day moving average as confirmation (orange line) - Monthly Heiken-Ashi bars for longer-term trends, Weekly bars for shorter-term trends
SP:SPX
by VictorMarz
2
Calm before the storm?The first ten days of the year for the S&P 500 index were surprisingly calm and without the interest it had in other years, finding it making a sideways downward movement towards the double "cushion" of support that is presented on the weekly price chart between 5,850 and 5,740 units. An important anti-shock zone that has the ability to absorb any liquidations that come out without spoiling the indication of the medium-term upward trend. The negative element is that with the sideways stabilizing movement that the index has been making since the beginning of last November between 6,100 and 5,850 points, it has brought closer to the very heavy 200-day moving average, which has now climbed to 5,657 points or -4% from current price levels. The week that will begin is therefore important as the index will have to show us its cards with what it intends to do. Thus, a possible passage of the index below 5,800 points will raise the attention of sellers since it will give them the right to push it further towards 5,740 and 5,700 points. On the other hand, a dynamic push above 5,800 points may bring 6,000 points back into the spotlight. Analysts may now be giving higher target prices for the S&P 500 for 2025, but at the same time they are expressing some skepticism about the ability of the "Magnificent 7" to pull the chariot on the uphill road to 7,000 points. Characteristic are the "pulled" figures that give both the P/E ratio and the P/S ratio for these seven giants in relation to the average of the S&P 500. So while the index has a P/E of 28 and a P/S of 3, Tesla has a P/E of 111 (!) and a P/S of 15, Nvidia P/E:53 and P/S:29, Amazon P/E:47 and P/S:3.8, Apple P/E:41 and P/S:10, Microsoft P/E:35 and P/S:12, Meta P/E:28 and P/S:9.8 and finally Google appears with P/E:25 and P/S:7.1. Indeed, the indicators show an "overflow" in the capitalization of the "Magnificent 7", but the financial data that will begin to come out from the first quarter of 2025 may open the way for higher numbers in their share values.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by manthos
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week Critical Levels Se detailed image below: Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance. Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now. Gamma Conditions Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult. There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies. Summary Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher. Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800. IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum. There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic. Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
SPX OutlookSPX Yearly bullish. but it needs to pullback to the last year's VA in order for us to look for longs on SPX. Monthly bullish but needs pullback to last year's VA / POC. once that happens, we can start to look for buyers to step in. a deeper pullback all the way to the main POC on lay 2.2 Weekly here too we have a zone that matches the one on layout 2.2 and price came down quite decisively on friday so I might consider longs till we reach the key areas below. Plan my plan here will be to wait for price to pull to last week's VA on layout 4 before starting to look for sellers to step in. although friday's daily candle was quite nice for the bears and there may not be a pullback to layout 4 VA. so if I get a short entry on my trigger timeframe on SPX, I will look to enter as we know when price dumps, it dumps aggressively.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Osiris992
SPX DrawdownS&P500 shows signs of fragility as equity breadth is not healthy and many hedge funds are starting to pile up shorts. Policy uncertainty ( Trump tariffs ) and unstable geopolitical developments will push stocks lower until the beginning of March. Although this will be a 15%-20% drawdown, I believe that the S&P500 will reach new highs in Q2, as the monetary policy will become more accommodative ( more rate cuts from the Fed priced in later this year), and more stocks from other sectors ex-tech will take the lead in a more reflationary, pro-growth macro environment.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Panos22
1
The Silent Killer That's Destroying Your Trading AccountLast week, someone dropped me a DM to talk about his "profitable" strategy. He was excited about making $4,894 in a single trade. I asked him about his account size, he proudly told me he turned $1,000 into $4,894 by risking his entire account on one trade. His account got wiped the next week. This story isn't unique. I was like him. I lost over $10,000 in my early trading days, not because my analysis was wrong, but because I had no idea how to manage risk. The Illusion of Control The majority of traders are unaware of this fact. Your analysis may be flawless. You can submit perfect entries. If you don't understand risk management, you might still lose everything. Think about it. How many times have you entered a trade without knowing your maximum loss? Do you increase your position size after a winning streak? Do you averaged down on losing positions? Do you remove your stop loss because you were confident about the trade? I remember my first funded account. I had a $200,000 account with The Funded Trader. My analysis was solid. I had back-tested my strategy extensively. But within two weeks, I had blown the account. Not because my trades were wrong, but because I had no system for managing risk. Why Most Traders Never See The Danger Coming The problem with poor risk management is that it works for a while, until it doesn't. It's similar to not wearing a seatbelt when driving. You feel fine and safe until you crash. Let me show you. Let’s say you start with a $1,000 account. You risk 20% per trade because you want to grow your account faster. The first few trades work out well. Your account grows to $1,500, a nice 50% gain in your account. You think you’re unbeatable. Your strategy is the holy grail. The next day, you lost three trades in a row. Something that happens a lot in trading. Your account is now down 50%. You need to make 100% just to break even. You take greater risks and incur even greater losses as a result of the pressure to profit from the market. This is what happened to me before. I turned $5,000 into $15,000 in two months by taking excessive risks. I felt like I had a hand of midas. Then I lost it all in two days. The Mathematics of Account Destruction Most traders don't understand that the size of your losses matters more than the size of your wins. Let's look at the brutal math: Lose 10% of your account? You need 11% to recover Lose 25%? You need 33% to recover Lose 50%? You need 100% to recover Lose 75%? You need 300% to recover This is why professional traders are obsessed with protecting their capital. They understand that preservation of capital is more important than making profits. I learned this lesson the hard way. In my early days, I would risk 10% of my account per trade. One bad day with three losing trades would put me down 30%. I needed a 43% gain just to get back to break even. It was mathematically impossible to succeed this way. The Hidden Danger of Overconfidence Do you believe that a trader being on a losing streak is the worst thing that could happen to them? No. It's when they are on a winning streak. We tend to become overconfident once we find small success. We start to believe that we're the big fish in the market. This is what happened to one of my mentees. He developed a profitable strategy. His strategy gave him a 60% win rate. He started with proper risk management, risking 1% per trade and was pretty profitable, netting him 8RRs in two weeks. After two weeks of consistent profits, he decided to increase his risk to 5% per trade since he was technically "profitable". Guess what happened next? He hit a normal losing streak. He lost four trades in a row. This normal losing streak turned from a 4% into a 20% drawdown. This causes him to abandon his strategy completely, thinking that his strategy is not profitable at all. The Professional Approach to Risk Here's what I learned about professional traders after blowing multiple accounts and finally becoming consistent. First, processional traders understand that trading is a game of probabilities. No trade is certain. Anything can happen in the market. Even an A+ setup with a 80% win rate will fail sometimes. This is why they never risk too much on any single trade. Second, they focus on risk more than reward. Before placing any trade, they know exactly how much they could lose. They keep their risk below 1% of their account size. The potential profit is what comes naturally to them. Managing risk is what keeps them in the game long term. Have you ever heard of any successful trader saying that they made it because they went all in on a certain trade? Almost all of them made it because of their risk management skills. Third, they understand that position sizing is everything. A great trade with poor position sizing is a bad trade. A normal trade with proper position sizing is a good trade, of course you have to trade according to your system. Building a Risk Management Framework After managing multiple six-figure funded accounts, here's what I've learned about proper risk management. Start with your maximum acceptable loss per trade. Most professional traders risk less than 1% of their account per trade. This means on a $100,000 account, your max loss should be less than $1,000 per trade. Next, calculate your position size. There are many calculators out there to calculate how many lots to trade. Lastly, consider your total exposure. If you have multiple trades open, you might be overtrading. If there is sudden news, all your trades could be stopped out at once. The Reality of Numbers Let me share something personal. When I first started trading a $10,000 account, I thought bigger risks meant bigger rewards. I still remember that feeling of excitement when I risked 10% on a trade and won. Making $1,000 in a single trade felt amazing. But then came a normal week of trading. Three losing trades - something that happens to even the best traders. That week changed everything. Trade 1: -$1,000 (Now at $9,000) Trade 2: -$900 (Down to $8,100) Trade 3: -$810 (Account crashed to $7,290) Just like that, I needed to make a 37% return just to get back to where I started. It felt impossible. The pressure led me to take even bigger risks, trying to recover my losses. You can guess how that ended. Now, let me show you how I trade the same $10,000 account today: Trade 1: -$100 (Now at $9,900) Trade 2: -$99 (Down to $9,801) Trade 3: -$98 (Account at $9,703) Same number of losing trades, completely different outcome. I only need a 3% gain to recover. More importantly, I'm still in the game, mentally strong, and able to trade my strategy without pressure. This isn't just about the numbers. It's about staying emotionally stable enough to execute your strategy properly. When you're down 30% of your account, you don't make rational decisions. But when you're down 3%, you can stick to your trading plan without panic. This simple shift in risk management is what allowed me to finally become consistent and eventually manage six-figure funded accounts. It's not exciting, it's not going to make you rich overnight, but it keeps you in the game long enough to actually become profitable. The Real Secret to Trading Success I'll let you know a secret about trading. It's not ALL about making money. I know you're learning to trade for the money. But money is just a byproduct of you following your system. Real trading is about surviving long enough to let your edge play out. In order to do so, you need to master risk management. I've always treated trading like a business. I will never risk 68% of my company on a single decision. Likewise, I will never risk 68% of my account on a single trade. You have to make calculated risks and manage the downside. Focus on these and profits will follow. Trading should be no different. Every trade should be properly sized so that a loss will not wipe your account. This allows you to stay in the game long enough for your edge to play out. Taking Action: Your First Steps If you're reading this and realizing you've been trading without proper risk management, don't panic. Here's what you need to do: First, reduce your position size immediately. Start risking 0.5% per trade maximum. Yes, this means smaller profits, but it also means you'll survive long enough to actually become profitable. Second, calculate your position sizes before the market opens. Don't leave this to emotion or gut feeling. Know exactly how much you'll trade based on your account size and stop loss distance. Third, track your maximum drawdown. This will show you whether your risk management is actually working or if you need to make adjustments. Remember: The market will always be there tomorrow, but only if you have capital left to trade with.
SP:SPX
by Keeleytwj
S&P 500: Bearish Momentum BuildsAs we move further into 2025, the S&P 500 continues to show signs of weakness, intensifying the bearish outlook from my last post. The Rising Channel breakdown and Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern remain dominant, with the price now trading firmly below the 50 EMA. Attempts to reclaim the Rising Channel have failed, confirming that the long-term bullish structure is no longer in play. The neckline of the H&S pattern, previously broken, has become a strong resistance zone, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50 EMA has flipped to resistance, making it even harder for bulls to regain control. Currently, the 200 EMA is providing critical support. If this level fails, the downside momentum could accelerate significantly, leading to much lower targets. Key levels to watch include 5,687.33, 5,600.45, and the channel projection target of 5,119.26. Bulls will need to defend the 200 EMA and push the price back above the 50 EMA to have a chance at reversing this trend. Otherwise, the market seems poised for further downside. Let me know how you’re approaching this setup shorting, waiting for a bounce, or something else? Stay sharp and trade carefully! 🚀
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
8
Livermore's Lessons Patience, Psychological Discipline & Timing Livermore's Lessons: Patience, Psychological Discipline, and Market Timing 🕰️💡📈🎢 Introduction: Explore the trading wisdom of Jesse Livermore from "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator," where we delve into lessons from pages 18-20, 56-57, and 122-125. See how these insights translate into modern trading with our innovative tool, DCA Alpha 1.0 🌟. Lesson 1: Psychological Discipline (Pages 18-20) Quote: "I called that jackass there -- he pointed to the guilty clerk -- and asked what you'd done; and when he told me I said to him: 'I don't like that guy's looks. He's a ringer!'" Educational Insight: Emotional Control: Livermore's story highlights why keeping a cool head (🧘‍♂️) is vital. Fear (😨) and greed (🤑) can lead to costly mistakes. DCA Alpha 1.0 Application: Discipline in DCA: Buy dips with confidence (🛒📉), avoiding the panic that can come with market lows. Avoid FOMO (🔺❌) as our tool provides signals to prevent chasing those overrated highs. Lesson 2: Patience in Trading (Pages 56-57) Quote: "I decided that I began too soon, but that I really couldn't help it. The market began to sell off. That was my opportunity." Educational Insight: Patience for Opportunities: Livermore learned that sometimes the best action is inaction (⏳), waiting for the market to come to you. DCA Alpha 1.0 Application: Mastering Timing: Simplify support and resistance (⚖️✨) with easy-to-read visuals, teaching you when to wait (🚫). Identify dip buying opportunities (🛒🔍) through our alerts, promoting calm and patience (🧘‍♀️) until the market turns. Lesson 3: Market Timing and Trend Following (Pages 122-125) Quote: "I was bearish because that was the way I sized up the situation, and I sold stocks short only after I turned bearish." Educational Insight: Following Trends, Not Fighting Them: Livermore's strategy was to ride the wave (🌊), not swim against it. DCA Alpha 1.0 Application: Trend Alignment: Data-driven entries & exits (🚀📊) to ensure you're moving with the market tide, be it up (📈) or down (📉). Clear oversold/overbought levels (📊🔔) help you follow the market's path or prepare for a shift, true to Livermore's timing approach. Conclusion: Livermore's teachings on patience, discipline, and following market trends are seamlessly integrated into DCA Alpha 1.0. This tool brings historical wisdom to your screen, enhancing your trading strategy in today's dynamic markets 🌍💹. Share your stories of patience and discipline in trading within our community (🗣️💬).
TVC:SPXEducation
by DCAChampion
US500 SHORT TERM LONG US500 Analysis: Waiting for Confirmation at Key Support The US500 is currently oversold and finding support at the 100 SMA, with price holding within a key bullish order block that previously set up the all-time high (ATH). This order block represents a level of significant institutional interest, as it required substantial volume to create the ATH. It has held as support twice before, reinforcing its importance. Current Outlook • Support Zone: Price is testing a strong bullish order block, a zone historically associated with high volume and institutional activity. • Oversold Conditions: Indicators suggest oversold conditions, aligning with a potential setup for a retracement move. • Waiting for a Bullish Change of Character: A bullish change of character (CoCh) will confirm that the current downward move has concluded and a retracement toward higher levels is beginning. Plan of Action We aim to take a long position upon confirmation of the CoCh, targeting the Fibonacci extension levels of 0.618 to 0.786. These levels are key for retracements and align with the potential formation of a lower high (LH), which would coincide with the descending triangle structure on the chart. Patience is essential. The market will dictate our entry, and we will react accordingly based on the price action. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions. Follow us for more professional insights, high-probability setups, and disciplined strategies to stay ahead of the markets! Don’t miss your edge—let’s navigate the market together.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
More down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD did exactly what I've said in my outlook. After price came into the Daily BPR it rejected from there and made another drop. So did you took advantage of my knowledge? You could have made a lot of money. Now it looks like the B-wave was a Triangle and price is now in the C-wave. So if that's true, then next week we could see more downside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up to finish and a change in orderflow to bearish, then you could trade shorts again. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 10, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the recent trading session, the S&P 500 demonstrated a robust rally, exceeding a notable support level at 5872. This upward movement, however, resulted in a significant decline of the index to a critical support level at 5870 and lower lows. The volatility associated with this upward trend has introduced instability by destabilizing the bullish trend by flagging a new downward target marked at Outer Index Dip 5645. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that encountering subsequent support levels of Mean Sup 5770 may trigger a substantial rally, potentially leading to the Mean Res at 5920, before plunging again to drop toward the targeted level of 5645.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Yearly view of SPXAnalysis based on yearly pivots, says to us that the drawdown on SPX is impulsive and it may continue till monthly S4 or it even might bounce from here, before the new president takes office and rally, since this is a prosper year, it will probably be double digits. The main event to watch out here is the inauguration rally, which will be "explosive", if the new president will want to sink it first, then "save" it later, it will probably dip even further, however the market will love the energy of the recovery. Things to watch out for: God forbid something happens to the new president and the inauguration gets delayed! One more thing, there's a prophecy been made by someone who has been right several times in a row, as follows: "Soon after Trump takes power, a great economic crash will follow". - which goes in line with the Trump rhetoric that Biden is leaving him a mountain full of debt.
SP:SPX
by Time_Oracle
SPX edges towards the final buy zoneSPX has an anticipated market top of 6650 (view our long term analysis below) We can see that the ascending channel which the SPX is trading in has been respected since October 2022 (below idea) Now that the equilibrium level has been broken, we would expect to see a test of the lower channel support trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure, as well as a 38 Fib retracement on the most recent move. Multiple confluences strengthen the validity of a particular level and add weight to our decision. Therefore, we will wait for the SPX to come down and test this level at around 5756 which could take another month. Sitting on our hands, being patient, waiting only for the most likely trades is the logical way to play. Long term SPX:
BLACKBULL:US500.FLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
Next week will be challenging for S&P 500 bullsNext week looks challenging for S&P 500 bulls. The price is stuck in a descending triangle pattern, and if it breaks below this week's low of 5,807, the market could trigger the pattern, suggesting a potential 3.8% drop to 5,596. However, staying above this week's low could allow for sideways movement or even a push higher. In the short term, the outlook remains bearish as long as the price stays below 5,933. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:SPX500
by ThinkMarkets