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S&P 500: BEARISH DIVERGENCE ALERT – Is This Time Different? Alright, listen up, my chart-watching warriors! 🎯✨ We’ve got ourselves a spicy situation on the S&P 500 Weekly Chart, and it’s SCREAMING caution right now. 🚨 The big question? “Is this time different?” Spoiler alert: Probably not. Let’s break it down 👇: 🚨 Bearish Divergence 101 First, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: BEARISH RSI DIVERGENCE. 📊 Price is making higher highs. (Woohoo, right? Wrong. 😬) 💔 RSI is making lower highs. (Oof. 🛑) This is like your car’s engine light coming on while you’re flooring it. Yeah, it’s fun for now, but guess what? You’re headed for trouble. 💀 Déjà Vu? History Doesn’t Lie! Let’s roll back the tape: 1️⃣ Feb 2020: Bearish divergence showed up. Result? BOOM – the COVID crash. 💥📉 2️⃣ Jan 2022: Another divergence. What happened? The market went full bear mode for a year. 🐻🔥 And now? Here we are in Dec 2024, and the exact same pattern is rearing its ugly head. Do we really think this time is different? I don’t think so. 👀 The Bearish Setup: 📈 Trendline Resistance: We’re right at the top of a multi-year rising trendline. This is a make-or-break zone. 💔 RSI Downtrend: The RSI is already sloping down, showing weakening momentum. Buyers are running out of gas. ⛽️💨 💡 Translation: This rally’s on borrowed time, folks. 🔥 George’s Hot Take: This is what I call a “SELL THE RIP” scenario. Here’s the plan: 1️⃣ Watch for a rejection near the current highs (6,050–6,100). 2️⃣ If we break below 5,800, it’s GAME OVER – bears take the wheel. 🐻 3️⃣ Targets? 5,400 is in the cards, and if things get ugly, we could be staring at 5,200. BUT WAIT… IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT? 🤔 You’ll hear the permabulls saying, “Oh, the market is resilient, blah blah.” Sure. But guess what? Patterns don’t lie. If this divergence plays out like it has TWICE before, we’re looking at some serious downside. Don’t fight the charts, fam. 📉 Final Thoughts from the Bear Cave: 🐻 The S&P 500 is flashing warning signs loud and clear. This isn’t the time to be a hero. Play it smart: Tighten stops. 🚦 Hedge your longs. 🛡️ Be ready to SHORT if we break support. 🎯 Let’s see how this plays out, but remember: The charts always win. 👑 Trade safe, my legends. ✌️
SP:SPXShort
by EdgeDotForex
6
SP 500 heading into resistance?Hi Guys, The SP 500 is slowly grinding higher and higher with every call for a top being dismissed by bulls as the index continually keeps creating all time high after all time high. Price is currently heading towards an zrea where we may find some selling pressure. The red box on the chart is that area and it contains the 2.0 retracement of the bear market high to low. That zone also coincides with the trendline drawn across the top Daily RSI is showing divergence but not in overbought but 4hr is showing overbought and divergence Lower timeframe entries may provide nice risk to reward trades. Safe Trading all.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by elyask120
Technical Analysis for S&P 500 IndexChart Structure: Upward Trend Channel: The S&P 500 Index is currently trading within an upward trend channel, indicating a strong bullish trend. Price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, further supporting the potential for continued upward movement. Fibonacci Extension Levels: The key Fibonacci extension levels are plotted to help identify potential targets for future price action: 1.618 at 6,062.3 (Immediate target) 2.272 at 6,091.9 2.618 at 6,107.7 Indicators Used: Ichimoku: The price is above the cloud, which suggests a strong bullish bias. The cloud is supporting the price action, reinforcing the expectation of continued upward momentum. Alligator: The Alligator lines are aligned in a bullish configuration, indicating a continuation of the upward trend with increasing volatility. Price Action Forecast: The immediate resistance is near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at 6,062.3. If the price continues to break through this level, it could reach the 2.272 level at 6,091.9, followed by the 2.618 level at 6,107.7. The trend remains bullish, but if the price starts to drop below 6,062.3, it could signal a pullback toward the lower support levels. Conclusion: Bullish Scenario: The upward trend is likely to continue, with potential targets at 6,062.3, 6,091.9, and 6,107.7. Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,062.3 could signal a potential reversal or consolidation phase. This analysis is based on technical indicators and should be supplemented with fundamental analysis for a more comprehensive view.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by arongroups
S&P 500 Analysis: Bullish Momentum and Key Levels S&P 500 Technical Analysis The S&P 500 reached another All-Time High (ATH) in December, signaling a continuation of its bullish trend and the potential for further historical gains. Currently, the price is consolidating within the range of 6068 and 6022, awaiting a breakout. Overall, the bullish trend remains strong, with the next key target at 6143. However, a break below 6022 could signal a correction, with the price potentially dropping toward 5971. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6068 Resistance Levels: 6100, 6143, 6185 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook The overall trend remains bullish, supported by strong momentum and the recent achievement of new highs.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P500: No corrections possibly for the whole 2025.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 64.149, MACD = 44.390, ADX = 33.789) as it is extending the strong rise since the U.S. elections. Going back even more, this uptrend has been nothing but sustainable ever since the August 5th bottom that almost hit the 1W MA50. In fact that MA level is intact since October 2023. The index has been following a similar path with the December 2018 - December 2021 Bull Cycle that topped after a +105% rise. You can see that following the COVID correction recovery after leg (6), the index crossed over the 1W MA50 and never broke it up until after the January 2022 High in 574 days. Consequently, we expect a continuation of the current uptrend for as long as the 1W MA50 stays intact. We are targeting a +105% rise yet again (TP = 7,150) near the end of 2025. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
6
S&P 500 – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic DataS&P 500 – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic Data The S&P 500 index continues to find support from favorable economic data and a stable macroeconomic outlook for the United States. Despite ongoing challenges, the market reflects optimism fueled by a mix of improving manufacturing indicators, resilient consumer spending, and a potential softening in Federal Reserve policy. Additionally, seasonal trends strongly favor the S&P 500, as December is historically one of the best months for equities. --- Key Economic Drivers Supporting the S&P 500 1. ISM Manufacturing PMI – Signs of Stabilization - The **ISM Manufacturing PMI** for November rose to 48.4, beating expectations, although still indicating contraction. This suggests the U.S. manufacturing sector is moving closer to stabilization. - Input costs showed the slowest inflation in a year, and renewed job creation added to the optimism. Challenges such as weaker international demand and reduced production remain, but improved business confidence is a positive signal. 2. Construction Spending Growth - Construction spending increased by 0.4% in October, highlighting resilience in the housing and infrastructure sectors. This reflects ongoing consumer and government investment, contributing to economic stability. 3. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid – Easing Inflationary Pressures - The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index dropped to 50.3, well below forecasts of 55.2. This is a significant development for inflation control, signaling moderating cost pressures within the manufacturing sector. - Implications: - Positive for equities: Lower inflation reduces the risk of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. - Stable monetary outlook: This supports expectations of a gradual shift toward easing monetary policy. 4. Fed Officials’ Support for Gradual Easing - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate a balanced approach toward monetary policy: - Christopher Waller highlighted the likelihood of a rate cut in December, citing a balanced labor market and gradual progress on inflation. - John Williams reaffirmed that inflation is expected to decline toward the 2% target while projecting GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024. - A potential rate cut could provide a further boost to equities as borrowing costs decrease, encouraging corporate investment. 5. Consumer and Business Optimism - The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI pointed to renewed job creation and improving confidence, though challenges such as weaker international demand persist. This mix of cautious optimism and moderating inflation supports steady market sentiment. --- Seasonality and Market Sentiment Seasonality is a key supporting factor for the S&P 500 at this time. December has historically been a strong month for equity markets due to holiday-driven consumer spending, portfolio rebalancing, and end-of-year tax considerations. This seasonal strength aligns with the Fear & Greed Index, which currently stands at 64, indicating a **greed-driven sentiment** that tends to favor further market upside. --- S&P 500 Outlook The S&P 500 is well-positioned to benefit from these positive economic indicators: - Lower inflationary pressures reduce the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve action, which is supportive of equity markets. - Steady GDP growth and a resilient labor market provide a strong foundation for corporate earnings. - Improved manufacturing confidence and spending on infrastructure create additional momentum for sectors like industrials and materials. - Strong seasonality and a favorable market sentiment further reinforce the potential for continued gains. While global uncertainties and weaker international demand could weigh on certain sectors, the overall outlook for the S&P 500 remains bullish, with near-term support from seasonal trends, improving economic data, and the potential for a more accommodative Fed policy stance.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
1
Grinding higherAll four major US stock indices inched into positive territory in early trade this morning. Yesterday, tech stocks led an advance which saw the NASDAQ add around 1% on the day, and the S&P gain 0.2%. The Russell 2000 was effectively unchanged, while the Dow slipped 0.3%. Overall, the recent price action has slowed to a steady grind higher. This follows the explosive rally across all the majors in November, triggered by Trump’s election victory, and led by the domestically-focused, mid-cap Russell 2000. Last month’s rally has seen if not a change in leadership, at least a broadening in the stock market rally. Financials and industrials have benefitted, while sectors viewed as defensive, such as healthcare and consumer staples, have been largely ignored. This gives ammunition to the bullish perspective. It indicates that investors have the confidence to extend their exposure outside of the market-leading tech sector. At the same time, the prevailing bullishness means that investors are currently spurning ‘safe haven’ defensive stocks. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed this month jumped to 72%, up from 60% on Friday. This followed a speech from the Fed’s Christopher Waller who says he favours a rate cut this month. But he also said he was concerned about the recent uptick in inflation. His colleague, John Williams, said that more work has to be done to get inflation back on track towards the Fed’s 2% target. Today there are speeches from Federal Reserve members Adriana Kugler and Austan Goolsbee. There’s also JOLTS Job Openings, the first major labour market data release this week which culminates with Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
Elliott Wave View S&P 500 (SPX) Wave 5 in ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave view on SP500 (SPX) suggests rally from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 5627.56 high and pullback in wave 2 ended at 5402.62 low. The Index then extends higher in wave 3 ending at 5878.46 high. The next pullback built a zigzag Elliott Wave structure to finish wave 4 at 5696.51 low like the 1 hour chart below shows. Actually, the SPX is trading higher in wave 5 developing an impulse or ending diagonal structure. Wave 5 rally is in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 6017.31 high and wave ((ii)) retracement ended at 5853.01 low. Wave ((iii)) has started and it is trading in wave v of (iii) of ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5908.12 and wave (ii) correction ended at 5855.29. Then the SPX built a nest ending wave i at 5923.51 and wave ii at 5860.56. Wave iii of (iii) finished at 6025.42 and wave iv pullback at 5984.87 low. From here, we are expecting that wave v of (iii) completes soon and the index should see a pullback in 3 swings as wave (iv) before resuming higher in wave (v) of ((iii)). Near term, as far as pivot at 5850.8 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Spx500 1. Understand how the Forex market works, including currency pairs, pips, and leverage. 2. Develop a clear trading plan with specific entry, exit, and risk management rules. 3. Always use stop-loss orders to protect your capital and limit losses. 4. Risk only 1-2% of your account per trade to avoid significant losses. 5. Trade with the trend, as it’s often safer than going against the market. 6. Avoid overtrading; quality trades are better than a high quantity of trades. 7. Use technical and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions. 8. Stay updated on global news that can affect currency values, like interest rates and geopolitical events. 9. Keep emotions in check—fear and greed can lead to poor decisions. 10. Continuously learn and adapt your strategy based on market behavior and personal experience.
SKILLING:SPX500Short
by HavalMamar
1
S&P 500 is climbing upwardsS&P 500 is climbing upwards The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **66 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **62,2%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context 27.11 data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
SPX500USD Will Go Up From Support! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 6,031.9. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 6,180.5. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SignalProvider
1
S&P500 This Inflation Cheatsheet shows no correction in 2025.This is a chart we first posted almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below) at the time of a CPI date release, where we viewed the S&P500 index (SPX) against Inflation (red trend-line) and calling for an immediate buy: ** The 1W MA50 as the ultimate Support ** Well the price jumped +11% since then from 5440 to over 6000. The first principle of this chart is that as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, investors should stay bullish. This is because all previous multi-year rallies since August 2011 that started within a Channel Up, ended upon a 1W candle close below the 1W MA50 and transitioned into a Megaphone pattern for the new Bear Phase. ** Declining Inflation fueling stocks ** Right now we are still on a declining Inflation trend, very similar to early 2014 (ellipse shape on Inflation), while the 1W RSI of SPX is declining inside a Channel Down. This is a Bearish Divergence, which during all previous SPX Channel Up patterns, didn't make the index top until the RSI broke below its 41.50 Support (notable exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash which was a one in 100 years Black Swan event). ** SPX Target and timing ** As a result, while the 1W RSI trades within its Channel Down and above 41.50 and all price candles close above the 1W MA50, we expect the index to extend the multi-year uptrend to 6900, which would represent a +95.84% rise from the October 2022 bottom, similar to the February 2015 High. Notice that the December 2021 top was also of a similar magnitude (+103%). As far as timing is concerned, we have calculated a model based on the 1W RSI top and the start of its Channel Down. As you see at that point, SPX always makes a medium-term pull-back (red Arc). This tends to be within the 0.382 - 0.618 time Fibonacci levels and on the 2011 - 2014 Bull Cycle, that was within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib zone. As a result, applying this principle on the current Bull Cycle, the trend is now just 2 months past the 0.618 time Fib and we can expect a Cycle Top around December 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot