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SPX trade ideas

S&P500/Macro end of Cycle: 2027This chart shows the cyclical nature of the global economy, S&P500. There is a clear correlation between a Bull supercycle and a 50% correction afterwards, which lasts for half the period of the supercycle. First SuperCycle had a 27 years long growth, then 13.5 years correction. Second SuperCycle had 18 years long growth and 9 years long correction. Current SuperCycle ends in 2027 technically. It is reasonable to sell your assets in 2026, at least 50% of all your portfolio.
TVC:SPXLong
by AlexRoma
We always & forever aim to the Moon A prevailing theory suggests that adjustments in the channel trend lines within stock markets signal the advent of a digital currency era—a shift towards monetary systems that no longer rely on benchmarking against the U.S. dollar. From a technical analysis perspective, this evolution is interpreted as a natural progression toward a more digitized financial landscape. Looking back over the 40-year history of stock markets, one might question the overall state of Western economies. Despite intermittent, minor declines that are often sensationalized by the media, major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have quietly continued to reach all-time highs. This persistent upward trend supports economic theories that highlight market resilience and self-correcting mechanisms, even in the face of periodic volatility. Moreover, there is substantial evidence that the United States has consistently injected liquidity into its financial system to stabilize and sustain growth. This strategy, while potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities, appears to have worked effectively over the past half-century. The practice can be seen as a self-reinforcing mechanism—one that maintains market momentum and may delay or even avert any catastrophic "Great Reset" or systemic collapse. In contrast, emerging markets like Thailand have experienced prolonged periods of stagnation, with stock prices moving sideways for approximately 15 years. This divergence raises a critical question: why do developed markets benefit from these self-sustaining policies while some emerging markets do not? Ultimately, if the mechanisms that have driven developed markets continue to function as they historically have, the anticipated dramatic resets or collapses may never materialize. Instead, the upward trajectory—often colloquially described as heading “to the moon”—is likely to persist in markets where these policies are in place.
SP:SPXLong
by baby_rhino
SPX 5734 today?Having studied volume profile and price geometry I expect SPX to see 5734 today. I am showing trend convergence to confirm my target. Iast two days green bars have been with low volume, show low confidence so it needs to spend some time between 5620 and 5734 if it has to move higher. I also believe 5520 was the bottom, dipping below the long trendline to shake off weak hands. Only if inflation comes in higher in next reading we could break that. Aslo the fact that we have the highest shorts since Aug last year, makes the market bullish
SP:SPXLong
by krisoz
Tight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the TriggerTight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the Trigger | SPX Analysis 19 Mar 2025 Sometimes, doing nothing is the best trade you’ll ever make. While I was off enjoying my long weekend, SPX’s bullish move got slapped back into the range. Had I jumped in long, I’d probably be hedging or cursing my screen right now. Now, price is coiling into a bear flag, and with the FOMC circus rolling into town at 2PM, I’m expecting things to stay tight until the fireworks start. 📌 Bullish above 5705. 📌 Bearish below 5605. 📌 Until then, I sit back and let the market make the first move. Because in this game, you don’t force trades—you wait for the perfect shot. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: Some days, doing nothing is the right trade. That’s exactly what I did over my long weekend, and it ended up saving me from stepping into a bullish trap. SPX’s move up was short-lived, and now we’re right back in the range—but this time, it’s setting up in an interesting way. 📌 The Setup – Bear Flag + FOMC = Volatility Incoming SPX has: Fallen back into the previous range—bulls are losing control. Coiled into a tight bear flag formation—hinting at a breakdown. FOMC later today, which could be the match that lights the next move. 📌 The Trade Plan – Let the Market Show Its Hand Right now, I have no interest in guessing. Instead, I’m letting the market come to me. Bullish above 5705? I’ll consider a long setup. Bearish below 5605? I’ll ride the downside momentum. Until then, I sit tight. 📌 Bigger Picture – The Waiting Game FOMC is always a game of patience. Traders try to guess what’s coming, but most end up whipsawed to oblivion. I won’t be one of them. If the market confirms my bias, I strike. If it fakes out, I wait for a better setup. No stress, no panic—just disciplined execution. 📌 Bottom Line – The Best Trade Is Sometimes No Trade For now, I’m watching, waiting, and keeping my capital intact. Because when the market finally makes its real move, I’ll be there, ready to take full advantage. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The longest FOMC meeting in history lasted five days—in 1932, during the Great Depression. Traders were left in limbo, staring at their tickers, waiting for an answer that took 120 hours to arrive. 💡 The Lesson? Waiting for clarity isn’t new—it’s just that today, we get our pain in hours, not days.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
US500 StanceThe equal lows from the 4H price action had me thinking. If we look at it from a range perspective, there is still a wide gap left from the 4H change of character, ever since it took the last low of the lower lows, it never gave a single percent to the area's retracement. This might be a daily timeframe FOMO trap. whereby recovery of the market from sells to buys will be pumped to only drop again. In terms of entry. There is a zone with mind for us to consider seeing if it holds. because right now there is some dying triangle pattern towards it. should it delay, but keep showing some sell intent. we will wait for the session to sweep its high and sell it. should it fail, a further analysis will take through
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheDemoTrader_SA
SPX cycle tell me we are in a bear market this yearThe cycles and the crosses are clones, therefore not exact fit.It doesn't look like a correction when I look at the cycles and pattern. I am more convinced that it is going to be a bear market in USA not just on technical but even on fundamentals: China has just finished a recession and will grow with higher cost of production, unlike 2000-2015. Market and Fed is under illusion that inflation will come down to 2% (Thank chinese cheap goods for that before covid, but not now and going forward). Higher cost of chinese goods and trump tariff are sure to jack up inflation to 4%+ this year in my opinion. People are addicted to low interest rate since 2000's, but historically they ware always higher at 6% mean. Any rallies would be temporary
SP:SPXShort
by krisoz
S&P500: Bottom is in. Strong 5month rally ahead.S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.840, MACD = -92.170, ADX = 55.129) as it hasn't crossed above the 4H MA50 or the 1D MA50 yet. Still, it did price the bottom on the HL trendline of its 2year Channel Up. The 4H MACD formed however a new Bullish Cross on the LH trendline, same as the October 31st 2023 HL bottom. As the market did then (October 2023), the 4H Death Cross that took place last week, happened exactly at the bottom and the 0.618 Fibonacci of the previous HL. We are still bullish and our target remains the -0.618 Fib (TP = 6,900). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
3
SPX50 18 March 2025 Market Analysis Yesterday closed as a bull bar in its upper half with a long tail above. We said that the parabolic wedge (3 pushes - 28 Feb, 7 Mar, and 13 Mar). That increases the odds of a minor pullback. The pullback is currently underway. The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback. They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs. Traders will see if they can continue to create follow-through buying. The next target for the bulls are the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low. For today, the bulls want a retest of yesterday's (Mar 17) high followed by another leg up. The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase. The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increases the odds of sellers above the first pullback. This remains true. That means the first pullback would likely only be minor. Because of the climactic selloff and parabolic wedge, the market may try to form a minor pullback which is currently underway. Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low. If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down increases and traders will sell the pullback. For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 17) high followed by a breakout above. Or will the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or below yesterday's high area? If this is the case, the market may selloff in the second half of the day.
SP:SPX
by Tech_Trader88
1
SPX Rally or Trap? Here’s What I’m WatchingSPX Rally or Trap? Here’s What I’m Watching | SPX Analysis 18 Mar 2025 After a well-earned extra-long weekend, I’m playing a little game of catch-up. SPX has broken out of the range, now making a strong 2-day rally—but is it the start of something bigger, or just another fakeout before the next drop? 📌 My bull trigger is locked in above 5705. 📌 My bear trigger is waiting below 5625. 📌 Larger timeframe suggests we could still see 5255 if the move fails. With my levels set and my triggers waiting, it’s all about execution now. Time to let the market make the first move—then I’ll strike. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: Taking a day off from the markets always makes me itch to get back in—but it also means I have to play catch-up. Yesterday’s price action unfolded pretty much as expected, so now it’s all about execution. 📌 The Setup – Is This Breakout the Real Deal? SPX has broken out of the recent range and rallied for two straight days—but we’ve seen this trick before. If this move has real momentum, I’ll enter in above 5705. If it’s another fakeout, my bear trigger at 5625 will come into play. On the daily chart, a failure here could send us as low as 5255. 📌 The Trade Plan – Let the Market Make the First Move ✅ I’m not rushing in—I’m waiting for my levels to get hit. ✅ If we stay above 5705, I’ll take the bullish entry. ✅ If we roll back under 5625, I’m flipping back to bearish. 📌 Bigger Picture – What Happens Next? If the breakout holds, we could see a larger trend shift. If it fails, 5500 becomes the next major level to watch. Either way, I’m positioned to react—not predict. 📌 Bottom Line – The Market Makes the First Move I’ve marked my levels, I’ve set my triggers, and now it’s just a waiting game. Time to see what unfolds. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 1987, before circuit breakers were introduced, the Dow plunged 22% in a single day—the largest one-day drop in history. 💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, playing catch-up in the markets means waking up to absolute chaos. Luckily, I only missed a Monday. 😉
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
5