S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.3-14.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 9th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in previous posts. Retrograde Venus, which typically supports bulls, aligned with the bear this year and reinforced the decline.
👉 As I mentioned in early March and in the last post, retrograde Venus played out this week with a one-week lag upwards. The reversal was confirmed by the extreme forecast on March 17, as expected. This is classic – the start of retrograde Mercury. The setup suggests the beginning of the second phase of the base cycle.
⚠️ Given that we are in a bearish base cycle, the second phase is also expected to be bearish – a short rally followed by a sharp drop below the opening level. A strong resistance level is at the familiar 5850 mark. The next extreme forecast is March 17. Since retrograde Mercury falls on a Saturday, it may have already played out on Friday, marking the start of Phase 2. The next extreme forecast is March 24. There's also a pivot forecast on March 19, but that is more relevant to crude.
👉 The movement range of the short position from January 24 or the triple top on February 20 to the March 17 extreme forecast exceeded $20K per contract. Congratulations to those who took the trade – a great setup. The more daring traders may consider a long position from March 17, as there is decent upside potential to 5850.
