SPX support 5500SPX looks to be bouncing at around the 5500 level in the next few days. We would need actual bad earnings data/recession to break the support level
SPX trade ideas
S&P500 Rebound: Glimpses of Stability in the Midst of a StormBy Ion Jauregui, Analyst ActivTrades
The S&P500 index has surprised everyone by rebounding after a historic day of declines. The volatility experienced last Monday, driven by uncertainty over new tariff measures, has begun to subside, giving a glimpse of a possible equilibrium in the US markets. Yesterday was a real hell for investors. Fears were triggered by the confirmation of plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum, with particular stringency for imports from Canada. This announcement, part of a strategy of trade tightening, generated a domino effect that sent the S&P500 sharply lower, highlighting the market's sensitivity to economic policy decisions. Europe's response to the tariffs was swift with a subsequent statement from the European Commission with “swift and proportionate” countermeasures to U.S. imports.
However, yesterday's subsequent session saw an unexpected response. Activity on Wall Street showed a moderation in the initial panic, and several traders took the opportunity to buy back assets on attractive technical terms. This rebound not only suggests that the plunge may have been an overreaction, but also reflects the resilience inherent in one of the world's most closely watched markets. The White House, for its part, tried to calm the mood, insisting that the sharp drop was a “one-off” and not representative of the strength of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Trump himself, through his statements, continues to set the tone in the debate on the transition to a new economic paradigm, where the implementation of tariffs is only one of the edges of a broader strategy.
Looking ahead, the focus is on how trade measures will evolve and whether market responses will be able to sustain in the face of possible further turbulence. The partial recovery of the S&P500 is certainly an indication that traders are willing to ride out the uncertainty as long as signs of consistent, stability-oriented economic policy materialize.
Technical analysis
Looking at the trend of the index, the fall since February 21 has been extended. With a very pronounced fall this week of -4.05% being the fall since the beginning of the month of -7.33% and -9.34% since the beginning of the fall. Yesterday's bounces could change the game of bearish dynamics of the index indicating a possible brake to this rampant fall generating the entry of buyers into the market. The strongest triple bell zone is located in the area of 4,953 points, a range that tried to consolidate after the beginning of the fall. The most plausible zone for price recovery in case of a bulls' advance in the market. If we look at a long-term perspective, the stock has bounced off the September 11, 2024 price level and could have closed a bullish gap. But before moving to the third long term bell we have another prior range at the 5,755 area where the current checkpoint is located. The mid-range crosses have not given any kind of trend reversal signal, so it is very likely that this week will see a retest of the 5,548 price. There is no “two without three”. If this price does not hold it is possible that the price could pull back to 5,491.29 points as first resistance and second resistance at 5,378.48 points. RSI indicates a point of slight oversold at 44.30% so this could happen during this week of high volatility.
In short, the recent rebound is an encouraging sign in a context of high volatility, although the question remains as to whether this recovery will be sustained or simply a momentary respite in the midst of a still uncertain outlook.In the short term, the first year of the Republican administration looks highly volatile for the markets.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
SPX give target of 5900My prediction based on market geometry and trend convergence. 5900 by 8/4. I don't claim any accuracy but the probability is high. The level is confirmed by 61.8% fibbo retracement and the time by fibo time series , 21 days down and 21 days up
SPX500 D1 | Strong bearish downtrendSPX500 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,653.89 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 5,768.84 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance and beyond the descending trendline.
Take profit is at 5,390.20 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
1Hr Bear TL BO Pullback Watching for the backtest of the late day bullish breakout. I’m anticipating a H1 entry to retest the 5641 level. I’ll flip short if the H1 fails
SPX interesting convergence of trendlinesThis is so interesting, I had to share! Not in every correction I can find a strong convergence of trendlines. Eg in I couldn't find any convergence in March 2020 correction except for the standard horizontal price support. Pinch me in the comments if you think I am dreaming and wake me up
5400AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:VIX analysis. I feel we completed another ABC today and we'll meltdown into 5400 for a bottom.
S&P500 -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
5870.56 is a major resistance, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
$S&P500
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 6150.05 on 02/19/2025, so more losses to support(s) 5568.78, 5398.95, 5261.00 and more depths is expected.
Take Profits:
5677.80
5568.78
5398.95
5261.00
5122.47
4944.41
4800.00
__________________________________________________________________
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 'BOOST' button 👍
. . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback in the comments below! (e.g., What did you find most useful? How can we improve?)
🙏 Your support is appreciated!
Now, it's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Have a successful week,
ForecastCity Support Team
S&P500 Channel Down good until cancelled.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a 20day Channel Down that spearheaded the technical correction from last month's All Time High.
The 1hour RSI is on a bullish divergence and within this pattern this has signalled a temporary rebound near the 1hour MA100 for a Lower High rejection.
As long as the pattern holds, a tight SL sell position there is the most optimal trade, aiming at 5450.
A crossing over the 1hour MA200, invalidates the bearish sentiment and restores the buying bias. In that case, take the loss on the sell and buy, aiming at 6040 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension).
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
This is the Spot to Position for Possible BreakIf the big break setup is coming I think this would be around the end of the last big rally.
We've made the sharp corrective move spoken of in the below idea
I think a 5650 Bounce is Ideal for a Crash BetSPX continues to trade weak through supports. There are a long list of reasons why it was reasonable to expect a low to be made either today or yesterday and both times we've sold through supports.
I think this is a break but I do also think the more prudent positioning would be to look for a rally to 5650.
Very cautious now as a bear into this drop. Trailing stops. Considering a low might be made somewhere 5500 - 5450 overshoot at the most.
Will pick up some lotto calls for 560.
7 DTE Call Spread aggressive 17 delta, 32% gain on cap investedThis is a very aggressive Call Spread, the Premium is 32% gain on cap invested. Will close this trade early to take risk off the table.
The Call side legs: -5915 +5920.
The Trump Crypto Summit is today at 1:30 EST. Expecting a sell the news event in Crypto, potentially more trade war / tariffs news will also continue to drag down the SPX which defs looks like it has locally topped out for now.
Again looking to close this trade early next week.
Silly Speculation #1.Charting the bottom to our current downside move. I could be wrong...if so, I would say by 2-3%.
S&P 500 reversal target - 6151Looking at a potential reversal target for the S&P 500 as we move beyond the election year into 2025. When scanning backwards on the previous high from late 2021, we can see price action clearly retested the speed fib on multiple weeks before a final rejection that induced the mini bear market which ended Oct of '22. Following that same speed fib forward into 2024, we can clearly see price is NOW, once again, retesting this magnetic fib zone.
To figure out where this is all going, let's measure from the Jan '22 high into the Oct '22 low.
Here, we get a 1.854 and 2.0 fib extension which intersects with the speed fib in question. Making some assumptions that price will AGAIN, range and retest multiple times before resolving, we can overlay "bars pattern" (from Jan '21 HIGH - Oct '22 LOW) and see when and how this could play out.
Now, we wait and see how this movie ends!
Note: Not trading or investment advice. ENTERTAINMENT ONLY!
S&P SellWith economic uncertainty in the US, buying XAU or selling the index is not favourable at this time
S&P500 INDEX (US500): More Down
With a confirmed bearish breakout of a key daily horizontal support,
US500 index opens a potential for more drop.
Next key support is 5425.
It looks like the market is going to reach that soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
S&P 500 tests key support on Trump's latest bombshellIn yet another striking move, US President Donald Trump has just announced plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, raising them from 25% to a hefty 50%. The new tariffs are slated to come into effect this Wednesday, with Trump citing Canada's intention to impose tariffs on electricity exports to the US as the catalyst for this decision. This latest escalation in trade tensions comes hot on the heels of a tumultuous Monday, which marked the worst day of 2025 for US markets. Investor fears were stoked by President Trump's aggressive tariff policies targeting America's largest trading partners, sending shockwaves through the financial landscape.
The situation has left many observers questioning the broader implications of these trade policies on both the US economy and its international relationships.
But one thing that has been quite clear all these years in this long-term bull market is that every time we have had a decent sell-off, dip-buyers have invariably stepped in and drove markets to new highs despite any macro concerns. Every single time we have heard cries of “this time it is different,” the bulls have prevailed, and bought the dip. Not even covid could hold the bulls back, let alone the unwinding of yen carry trades in 2024, or China’s sluggish recovery that caused local markets to tank last year, and before that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or the bear market of 2022 when inflation surged and caused interest rates to shoot higher across the world (excluding Japan). Are we going to see yet another such recovery soon, or does the market want to go a little deeper before dip buyers emerge? That’s the key question, and one way to find clues is by looking at the charts.
The S&P 500 here is testing liquidity below yesterday's low of 5567 and key support in the 5550 area. With the daily RSI now well into the oversold territory, can we see a rebound here heading deeper into the US session?
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with Forex.com
SPX 23% - 36% Market Crash From Recent Highs (~6,147)Structural Breakdown & Key Observations
Recent High: $6,147.43 (ATH level)
Bearish Momentum Indicators:
MACD: -40.98 (Bearish momentum increasing)
RSI: 45.11 (Weakening strength but not yet oversold)
Volume Increase: $14.18B → Indicates potential distribution.
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern Confirmation:
Potential Upthrust & Distribution Phase around 6,147 - 6,000.
If SPX loses 5,700 - 5,600, it will confirm a markdown phase → Bearish.
What Could Trigger a 23% - 36% Crash?
Macroeconomic Risks:
Rising interest rates (Liquidity tightening).
Earnings recession (Corporate profits declining).
Geopolitical risks (Oil, China, etc.).
Bond market stress → Inverted yield curve impact.
Technical Market Triggers:
Break of 5,600 → Strong Bearish Confirmation.
5,400 - 5,200 = Critical "Mid-Crash" Zone → If lost, crash risk accelerates.
VIX spikes above 30+ would confirm a volatility explosion.
✅ Bearish bias confirmed → If SPX breaks below 5,600, crash potential is HIGH.
✅ A 23-36% drawdown aligns with macro & technical risks.
✅ Watch for Fed intervention at ~4,300 - 4,750 levels → This will dictate if the market stabilizes.
🚨 Conclusion:
If SPX holds 5,600, expect a bounce → Otherwise, full markdown into a 23-36% crash is possible.
Key level to watch: 5,400 - 5,200 → This is the TRUE danger zone for a full market selloff.
SPX Now Threatens a Crash Event if We BreakWe have the very uncommon condition of SPX downtrending 10% over the last month.
It didn't make a flash crash event. It's not the classic jagged correction. Certainly isn't a clean ABC. Day after day, week after week the hour chart has painted lower lows and lower highs.
In this type of break I'd expect to see a rally right after. Traditionally this is a failed new high/head and shoulders like move - but in the modern market a modified spike out of the high is the common outcome.
The min expected retracement would be this.
But these days it's more reasonable to expect something like this.
Massive and critical supports are around 5500. If we get there, make another standard bull trap rally (Very sharp one) and then we break - this might set up a true capitulation event.
It's possible SPX is 20% off the high before the end of Q2.
At which point, I'd be rather bullish. I do like to buy at supports.
