SELL SPX *I am in no way a financial advisor and you should always do your own due diligence before placing any trade. Do not trade what you are not comfortable with losing. No trade is guaranteed.
Sell SPX
stop loss: 6025
Take profit: 5783
SPX trade ideas
$SPX Exit Stage LeftWe have several things going on with the SP:SPX Right now. Some say its a bullflag, Some say it's a head and shoulders.
The simplest explanation often being the best, SP:SPX is testing a downtrend line that was formed as a result of price action continuously rejecting at a Supply Level.
Price is consolidating, however with the aggressive short attack on the SP:SPX at the close Friday, valuations being in the clouds and meme coin holders being rugged by world leaders, I would say there is a more than fair chance all this stupidity marks a top.
With a very dubious and undecided CCI, weather we break above first or break lower first does not matter. We are going down.
First target is a closing of that huge Wide open space at 5850. Then Liquidity at 5700 and a third target at 5400.
We will see after that.
Don't forget to Short the NSE:BANKNIFTY too...
S&P 500: Bullish Outlook for Next Week, Targeting 6050
- Key Insights: The S&P 500 is on the brink of a bullish breakout, with strong
support at 5900 and market sentiment leaning positively due to easing
inflation fears. The index is currently testing critical resistance at 6000.
Sustaining above this level could lead to further upward momentum.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets: T1: 6050, T2: 6100
- Stop levels: S1: 5900, S2: 5850
- Recent Performance: The S&P 500 has seen a notable rally, bouncing off the
5750 support level and showing strong overall performance this week. The
current price at 5996.66 indicates bullish trends, and market confidence
appears to be returning.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic view for the S&P
500, highlighting strong technical patterns and positive economic
indicators. If the index can hold above 6000, this could trigger further
gains and reinforce bullish sentiment.
- News Impact: Recent economic releases regarding consumer sentiment and
inflation have positively impacted market dynamics. The upcoming earnings
season, featuring major companies like Netflix and Johnson & Johnson, could
influence market sentiment. Additionally, speculation around President
Trump's inauguration and potential economic policies adds to the bullish
outlook, but traders should prepare for possible volatility in light of the
Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
SPX: on a tricky pathDuring the previous two weeks, the US equity market went through a short term correction, amid investors fears that the Fed might halt further cuts of interest rates during the course of this year, due to stronger than expected jobs market and potential surge in inflation in the US. The December inflation figures were posted during the previous week, which showed that the inflation in the US was held below market expectations, which brought back some optimism among investors. The S&P 500 recovered from losses, and ended the week at the level of 5.996. However, the question still remains if the index took a path toward the upside, or is this only a short term optimism? An inauguration of the new US Administration is scheduled for January 20th, where the markets will closely watch what measures will be actually taken within the first week, from all the promises from the pre-election period. The most challenging move is the one related to trade tariffs with China, which might bring some negative impact to the US economy. In this sense, Monday will be a day to watch during the week ahead.
For one more week, tech stocks were in the focus of market attention during the previous week. Tesla stocks gained over 3% for the week, followed by other big tech companies and the semiconductor industry. The only stock that is still struggling to regain market cap is Apple, whose shares were hit by news that Apple is losing market share in China due to strong competition from local smartphone producers. Banking sector was also closely watched, as they posted quarterly results. As their earnings were higher from expectations, the stocks of major US banks gained significantly within the week. Goldman Sachs and CITI Group were traded higher by roughly 12%, while JPMorgan was traded higher by 8%.
For the week ahead, Monday is the day to watch. After the President-elect won the US elections in November, the market reacted in a positive manner. Whether this optimism will continue to hold after his inauguration is to be seen during the week ahead.
What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?
The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets.
What Is the January Effect?
The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks.
The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years.
At its core, the January effect reflects a combination of behavioural, tax-related, and institutional factors. Broadly speaking, the phenomenon is linked to a surge in buying activity at the start of the year. After December, which often sees tax-loss selling as traders offload poorly performing stocks to reduce taxable gains, January brings renewed buying pressure as these funds are reinvested. Additionally, optimism about the new year and fresh portfolio allocations can amplify this trend.
While the January effect was more pronounced in earlier decades, changes in trading patterns and technology have made it less consistent. Yet, it still draws attention, particularly from traders looking for seasonal trends in the market.
Historical Performance and Data
Studies have provided empirical support for the stock market’s January effect. For instance, research by Rozeff and Kinney in a 1976 study analysed data from 1904 to 1974 and found that average stock returns in January were significantly higher than in other months. Additionally, a study by Salomon Smith Barney observed that from 1972 to 2002, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in January stock market history by an average of 0.82%.
However, the prominence of the January effect has diminished in recent decades. Some studies indicate that while January has occasionally shown strong performance, it is not consistently the well-performing month. This decline may be attributed to increased market efficiency and the widespread awareness of the effect, leading investors to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Some believe that “as January, so goes the year.” However, Fidelity analysis of the FTSE 100 index from its inception in 1984 reveals mixed results. Out of 22 years when the index rose in January, it continued to produce positive returns for the remainder of the year on 16 occasions. Conversely, in the 18 years when January returns were negative, the index still gained in 11 of those years.
Check how small-cap stocks behave compared to market leaders.
Factors Driving the January Effect on Stocks
The January effect is often attributed to a mix of behavioural, institutional, and tax-related factors that create a unique environment for stock market activity at the start of the year. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind this phenomenon:
Tax-Loss Selling
At the end of the calendar year, many traders sell underperforming stocks to offset gains for tax purposes. This creates selling pressure in December, especially on smaller, less liquid stocks. When January arrives, these same stocks often experience renewed buying as traders reinvest their capital, pushing prices higher.
Window Dressing by Institutions
Institutional investors, such as fund managers, often adjust portfolios before year-end to make them look more attractive to clients, a practice called "window dressing." In January, they may rebalance portfolios by purchasing undervalued or smaller-cap stocks, contributing to price increases.
New Year Optimism
Behavioural psychology plays a role too. January marks a fresh start, and traders often approach the market with renewed confidence and optimism. This sentiment can lead to increased buying activity, particularly in assets perceived as undervalued.
Seasonal Cash Inflows
January is typically a time for inflows into investment accounts, as individuals allocate year-end bonuses or begin new savings plans. These funds often flow into the stock market, adding liquidity and supporting upward price momentum.
Market Inefficiencies in Small-Caps
Smaller companies often experience less analyst coverage and institutional attention, leading to so-called inefficiencies. These inefficiencies can be magnified during the January effect, as increased demand for these stocks creates sharper price movements.
Why the January Effect Might Be Less Relevant
The January effect, while historically significant, has become less prominent in modern markets. A key reason for this is the rise of market efficiency. As markets have become more transparent and accessible, traders and institutional investors have identified and acted on seasonal trends like the January effect, reducing their impact. In financial markets, the more a pattern is exploited, the less reliable it becomes over time.
Algorithmic trading is another factor. Advanced algorithms can analyse seasonal trends in real-time and execute trades far more efficiently than human traders. This means the potential price movements associated with the January effect are often priced in before they have a chance to fully develop, leaving little room for manual traders to capitalise on them.
Regulatory changes have also played a role. For instance, tax reforms in some countries have altered the incentives around year-end tax-loss harvesting, one of the primary drivers of the January effect. Without significant December selling, the reinvestment-driven rally in January may lose its momentum.
Finally, globalisation has diluted the January effect. With global markets interconnected, price trends are no longer driven by isolated local factors. International flows and round-the-clock trading contribute to a more balanced market environment, reducing the impact of seasonal trends.
How Traders Respond to the January Effect in the Stock Market
Traders often pay close attention to seasonal trends like the January effect, using them as one of many tools in their market analysis. While it’s not a guarantee, the potential for small-cap stocks to rise in January offers insights into how some market participants adjust their strategies. Here are ways traders typically respond to this phenomenon:
1. Focusing on Small-Cap Stocks
The January effect has historically been more pronounced in small-cap stocks. Traders analysing this trend often look for undervalued or overlooked small-cap companies with strong fundamentals. These stocks tend to experience sharper price movements due to their lower liquidity and higher susceptibility to seasonal buying pressure.
2. Positioning Ahead of January
Some traders aim to capitalise on the January effect by opening a long position on small-cap stocks in late December, possibly during a Santa Claus rally, anticipating that reinvestment activity and optimism in January will drive prices up. This approach is not without risks, as not all stocks or markets exhibit the effect consistently.
3. Sector and Industry Analysis
Certain sectors, such as technology or emerging industries, may show stronger seasonal performance in January. Traders often research historical data to identify which sectors have benefited most and align their trades accordingly.
4. Potential Opportunities
Active traders might view the January effect as an opportunity for shorter-term trades. The focus is often on timing price movements during the month, using technical analysis to identify entry and exit points based on volume trends or momentum shifts.
5. Risk Management Adjustments
While responding to the January effect, traders emphasise potential risk management measures. Seasonal trends can be unreliable, so diversification and smaller position sizes are often used to potentially limit exposure to downside risks.
6. Incorporating It Into Broader Strategies
For many, the January effect is not a standalone signal but part of a larger seasonal analysis. It’s often combined with other factors like earnings reports, economic data, or geopolitical developments to form a more comprehensive approach.
The Bottom Line
The January effect remains an intriguing market trend, offering insights into seasonal stock movements and trader behaviour. While its relevance may have shifted over time, understanding it can add value to market analysis. For those looking to trade stock CFDs and explore potential seasonal trading opportunities, open an FXOpen account to access a broker with more than 700 markets, low costs, and fast execution speeds.
FAQ
What Is the Stock Market January Effect?
The January effect refers to a historical pattern where stock prices, particularly small-cap stocks, tend to rise in January. This trend is often linked to tax-loss selling in December, portfolio rebalancing, and renewed investor optimism at the start of the year.
What Happens to Stock Prices in January?
In January, stock prices, especially for smaller companies, may experience an uptick due to increased buying activity, caused by a mix of factors, including tax-loss selling, “window dressing”, seasonal cash inflow, new year optimism, and market inefficiencies in small caps. However, this isn’t guaranteed and depends on various contextual factors.
Is December a Good Month for Stocks?
December is often positive for stocks, driven by the “Santa Claus rally,” where prices rise in the final weeks of the year. However, tax-loss selling, overall market sentiment and geopolitical and economic shifts can create mixed outcomes for the stock market, especially for small-cap stocks.
Is New Year's Eve a Stock Market Holiday?
No, the stock market is typically open for a shortened trading session on New Year's Eve. Normal trading hours resume after the New Year holiday.
Which Months Could Be the Best for Stocks?
According to theory, November through April, including January, have been months when stocks performed well. This trend is often attributed to seasonal factors and increased investor activity. However, trends change over time due to increasing market transparency and accessibility. Therefore, traders shouldn’t rely on statistics and should conduct comprehensive research.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Crystal Balling...Yep views are 2025 and possibly 2026 are going to be bad years for markets - expecting trump to say they left him a mess/disaster in the down years and come 2028 everything to be at new highs and him boasting about how good everything is.
FIRE Plays: Riding the Uptrend Wave with Precision!
Hey Traders! 👋
The market is heating up, and emotions are running high. Greed is in the air, and it’s time to channel that energy into smart, calculated moves. Let’s talk about a setup that’s too good to ignore—a classic uptrend channel that’s screaming opportunity. But remember, even in the heat of the moment, discipline is key. Here’s how to play it:
The Setup: Uptrend Channel in Focus 📈
We’re looking at a beautifully improving uptrend channel, and price action is respecting those levels like clockwork. The higher highs and higher lows are telling us one thing: the bulls are in control. But don’t let FOMO (fear of missing out) cloud your judgment. This is where strategy trumps emotion.
Key Levels to Watch 🎯
6.100 Level – The Profit Zone 🚀
This is where the party could start to wind down. As price approaches 6.100, it’s time to tighten those stops and consider taking profits. Greed can turn into regret real quick if you overstay your welcome. Lock in those gains and live to trade another day.
Support Zones – The Safety Nets 🛡️
5.922: The first line of defense. If price pulls back here, it could be a healthy retracement before the next leg up.
5.835: The second support level. A bounce here could signal another buying opportunity, but tread carefully.
5.740 – The Correction Zone ⚠️
If price dips to this level, it’s time to reassess. This could be a deeper correction, and you don’t want to get caught in a reversal. Stay patient and wait for confirmation before jumping back in.
Why This Works 🧠
This setup plays on the two most powerful emotions in trading: greed and fear. The uptrend channel fuels the greed, tempting you to ride the wave higher. But the key levels act as a reality check, reminding you to stay disciplined and protect your capital. It’s a balancing act, and this strategy keeps you on the right side of the trade.
The Bottom Line 💡
The market is a battlefield of emotions, and right now, greed is leading the charge. But smart traders know when to strike and when to step back. Keep an eye on that 6.100 level—it’s your cue to take profits. And if price dips to the support zones, wait for confirmation before making your next move.
Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and let’s make those FIRE plays! 🔥
What do you think? Are you riding this uptrend or waiting for a pullback? Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
#TradingView #UptrendChannel #SmartTrading #GreedAndFear #TradeLikeAPro
SP500 Waiting for a pullback With the good news, the indices appear to have broken out of their downward trend. A pullback is expected on the SP500, and this retracement would occur in the 0.5 - 0.61 Fibonacci zone.
SPX500 - still potential to reach a new higher highHello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
SPX500 BuysMy main focus is that 4hr BISI which is also an 1Hr BISI by the way. the moment we retrace into that area I'll look for a 5mins to 15mins change of structure then I can take it from there. using the London Am session or New York open session prices.
Risk Management is the key to successful trading....
US500/SPX500 "Standard & Poor" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500 / SPX500" Indices market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade after the breakout of MA level 5960 (OR) Entry in Pullback 5820
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 6000.00 (or) escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release.
Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Expected Trend: The US500/S&P500 index is expected to move in a bullish trend.
Drivers of the Trend: The bullish trend is driven by:
Strong US economic growth
Low interest rates
A potential rebound in corporate earnings
Current Price: The current price of the S&P 500 is around 5802.
Client Sentiment: 51% of client accounts are holding long positions on this market.
Top Risers: Some of the top risers in the US500 index include stocks with percentage changes of:
27.55%
5.8%
32.96%
Top Fallers: Some of the top fallers in the US500 index include stocks with percentage changes of:
-26.21%
-17.09%
-49.06%
Dow Jones Index: The Dow Jones index has been holding support, despite rising yields putting pressure on global indices.
Earnings Growth: The S&P 500 is expected to report its strongest earnings growth since Q4 2021, with an 11.9% increase.
Market Sentiment:
Bullish Sentiment: 60% of traders and investors are bullish on the US500/S&P500, expecting the market to continue its upward trend.
Bearish Sentiment: 30% of traders and investors are bearish on the US500/S&P500, expecting the market to pull back or reverse its trend.
Neutral Sentiment: 10% of traders and investors are neutral on the US500/S&P500, waiting for more information or confirmation before making a trade.
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Analyzing Key Forex Patterns and IndicatorsAnalyzing the SPX500 chart reveals several key patterns and indicators critical for forex trading
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Zone: The blue-shaded area around the 6,071 level is a significant resistance zone where the price has struggled to break through.
Support Level: The horizontal blue line at approximately 5,840 (labeled "SMS") represents a notable support level where buying interest has emerged in the past.
2. Swing High (SH):
The red horizontal line marked "SH" around the 6,077 level highlights a failed swing high, indicating a previous peak in price.
3. Price Movements:
There is a notable decline from the resistance zone around 6,020 to a low near 5,770, followed by a recovery towards the 6,000 level.
4. Volume:
The volume, indicated as "Vol 7.14K" at the top of the chart, provides insight into the trading activity during this period.
Potential Effectiveness of this Technical Signals:
Resistance Zone: If the price breaks above this level with strong volume, it could signal a bullish trend continuation. However, failure to break through may indicate a reversal or consolidation.
Support Level: Maintaining above this support level is crucial for a bullish outlook. A break below could signal a bearish trend and further downside potential which the break has occured.
Swing High (SH): The swing high at 6,020 serves as a reference point for potential resistance. Approaching this level again will be a key area for observing either a breakout or a reversal.
These technical signals are effective in predicting market movements as they reflect historical price action and trader behavior. However, they may fail due to unexpected news, economic events, or changes in market sentiment that can cause deviations from historical patterns.
In summary, the chart offers valuable insights into support and resistance levels, swing highs, and price movements, which are essential for making informed trading decisions in the forex market.
US Stocks Surge as Trump Takes Office: Will the Rally Continue?The US stock market is buzzing with excitement as President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 approaches. On Friday, January 17, the major indices saw significant gains, with:
● S&P 500 SP:SPX rose 59 points, or 1%
● Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI increased 335 points, or 0.8%
● Nasdaq composite NASDAQ:IXIC surged 292 points, or 1.5%
◉ Major Sector Driving Gains
The technology sector, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, has been instrumental in this upward momentum.
◉ Investor Sentiment
Investors are optimistic about Trump's policies, but concerned about potential inflationary pressures. Experts believe Trump's administration could lead to significant growth due to:
1. Increased Government Stimulus: Trump's background as a real estate developer may result in policies designed to stimulate economic growth.
2. Technological Innovation: Rapid advancements in technology are expected to create new industries and opportunities.
3. Lower Interest Rates: There is speculation that Trump may implement lower interest rates to further encourage economic expansion.
Overall, the market is cautiously optimistic, with investors closely monitoring Trump's policies.
US100 Breakout Incoming
US-500 Analysis
Weekly Chart Overview
• Trend: The US-500 is firmly in an uptrend, trading within a larger ascending channel since July. Price action continues to respect this channel, with the most recent weekly candle forming a bullish engulfing pattern off a key Fibonacci retracement level.
• Volume Profile: Price remains in a medium-volume zone, with the weekly POC at 5,562, marking a critical level of interest for institutional participation.
• Indicators:
• EMAs: All EMAs are aligned upward with significant spacing, highlighting the strength of the current trend.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price is well above the weekly cloud, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD: RSI has climbed from 53 to 59, aligning with the recent bounce, while MACD shows waning bearish momentum, supporting a potential continuation of the uptrend.
• Fibonacci Insights:
• The retracement from the 5th August to 2nd December wave suggests the 0.236 level played a role in the recent bounce, indicating that the current higher-low formation aligns with broader trend dynamics.
• Using the breakout point from 9th September, the 38.2% retracement level aligns precisely with the recent reversal, providing additional confluence.
Daily Chart Overview
• Trend: On the daily chart, price action has been in a consolidation phase since breaking below an ascending channel on 17th December. However, the price has repeatedly bounced off a daily order block at 5,874 to 5,828, establishing a robust support zone.
• Key Developments:
• Recent price action shows a breakout above the daily POC at 5,919, with the price now above the 20 EMA and 50 EMA.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is within the upper band, signaling renewed strength.
• Fibonacci Insights:
• The bounce aligns with the 0.786 retracement level, suggesting the potential formation of a higher-low structure, which is often a precursor to trend continuation.
• Fibonacci retracements and extensions provide insights into market liquidity levels, where institutional activity is likely to cluster.
• Indicators:
• RSI is back above 50, confirming a shift in momentum.
• MACD has turned green, and CMF is positive at 0.03.
• ADX at 30.57 shows a weakening bearish trend, while DI lines converge, indicating diminishing bearish pressure.
4-Hour Chart Overview
• Trend: Price action recently broke out of a descending wedge, which had been characterized by lower-lows and lower-highs during the consolidation phase. This breakout aligns with bullish sentiment seen on higher timeframes.
• Key Levels:
• Price is testing a daily order block, showing initial rejection, with potential for short-term retracement.
• Fibonacci extensions reveal the move has reached a 100% retracement of the previous downtrend, a critical level for monitoring potential liquidity grabs.
• Indicators:
• RSI is at 67.93, nearing overbought territory, suggesting possible short-term exhaustion.
• MACD remains above zero, though bullish momentum is waning.
• CMF is increasing at 0.16, signaling accumulation.
Exclusive Indicator Insights
Our custom indicators provide a critical edge in identifying key zones:
• Weekly Buy Region: The first green bar since consolidation appeared last week, signaling a shift in sentiment and potential alignment with broader bullish momentum.
• Daily Buy Region: Currently unshaded, reflecting a lack of confirmation on the daily timeframe, underscoring the importance of higher timeframe alignment.
Summary and Outlook
• Weekly Chart: The higher-low formation, supported by Fibonacci retracements and a bullish engulfing candle, points to strong bullish momentum.
• Daily Chart: The breakout above the POC and key EMAs signals a potential end to the consolidation phase, with order blocks and retracements offering critical areas to monitor.
• 4-Hour Chart: While the breakout is promising, near-term corrections are possible as the RSI approaches overbought levels and momentum wanes.
Stay Tuned
Our exclusive indicators, particularly the Weekly Buy Region and Daily Buy Region, are designed to highlight actionable zones with precision, making them invaluable tools for indices like the US-500. Stay connected to our Minds channel and follow our ideas to gain access to specific entries and further updates as we refine our setups.
Blood on the Street Next Week, S&P Drop incomingI had expected to see the index start falling this past week, so it was surprising to see it rise in such aggressive bursts, even leaving gaps preceding the last three days' openings. This displayed great strength which, Im expecting, induced many investors to go long. This in my view is just as intended to trap them and close them out on a loss this upcoming week by breaking down sharply and filling out the gaps left behind.
As a confirmation of this I'm awaiting to see it move below Friday's low which should really tip the price pressure lower after initially catching some of Friday's longs and generating momentum on those liquidations.
Ideally, the price won't revisit the high at 6,055 but the ultimate invalidation point is at the all-time high.
Happy Trading :)
S&P 500 Hyperwave ScenarioIn a hyperwave scenario, where each phase achieves approximately the same return in half the time, the S&P 500 would be at around 8500 in August. An invalidation of this scenario would be a lasting break in the trendline and the target would be the base, which does not have to be reached.
Down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD came into the Daily FVG and rejected from there to the upside. It could be that the WXY correction is finished and price is now going up again to a new ATH.
Next week we could see a (corrective) move down and after that more upside.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a bigger correction down to finish. After that you could trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
SP500 OUTLOOKActually SP500 is in a range because there's no break of any maximum or minimum. By the way, price has react on a discount level and it shows the firs sign of strenght. The periferic scenario is still long that's why I'm waiting for a break of this range and waiting for take a long position. On my analysis I've show you 2 possible scenarios. Let's wait and have a nice trading
US500 trading I deaAlso us500 it breaksout wait for pull back to demand zones for possible knew highs aswell,I just decided to share 4 of them soo that you can pick the one that is good for your mental health 😉 😊 soo please trade responsible trading is risky you might loose all your capitals enjoy...
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the recent trading session, the S&P 500 attained our designated downside target of Mean Support at 5775, which initiated a robust rally. This rally enabled the index to reach our target of Mean Resistance at 5920 and advance further to the newly identified Mean Resistance at 6035. The market is currently exhibiting strong and consistent upward movement. The bullish trend appears poised to continue towards our subsequent target, the Outer Index Rally at 6123, which will be approached via Key Resistance at 6090. Following that, additional targets of 6233 and 6418 are also anticipated. However, it is essential to acknowledge that reaching the initial rally level and the subsequent targets will result in a price pullback. Such a pullback is expected to prepare the market for the next phase of the bullish trend.
US500 sellhello friends
I hope you are well.
By forming this pattern, we can enter into a sales transaction with capital management.
If you want an analysis, send us a message.
*Trade safely with us*
[Education] The Truth About Why You Still Can't Manage You know you should risk only 1% per trade. You understand the math behind proper position sizing. You’ve read all the books about risk management. Yet somehow, you still find yourself breaking these rules “just this once.”
I get it. I’ve been there. Even after blowing multiple accounts and losing over $10,000, I still struggled with risk management. Not because I didn’t understand it, but because understanding isn’t enough.
Let me share something embarrassing. Last year, I was managing a $200,000 funded account. I had my risk management rules clearly written down. Never risk more than 1%. Never hold through high-impact news. Never average down on losing trades.
Then one day, I saw what looked like the perfect setup. Everything aligned. Multiple timeframe confluence, key level, perfect structure. Instead of my usual 1% risk, I convinced myself this trade deserved 3%. After all, with my experience and track record, surely I could handle larger position sizes now?
That one decision wiped out two months of profits in 15 minutes.
The Psychology Behind Our Self-Sabotage
Here’s what makes risk management so tricky. We can intellectually understand its importance while emotionally rejecting it. It’s like knowing exactly how many calories are in a chocolate cake but eating it anyway.
The problem isn’t knowledge. When you’re trading a $10,000 account and risking 1% per trade, you’re only risking $100. Even with a 2R winner, that’s just $200 profit. It’s just a day’s worth of salary. Proper risk management feels like you’re making slow progress.
When you’re scrolling through social media. you see other traders posting insane gains. Your friend tells you that he turned $1,000 into $10,000 in a week trading crypto. Your mind knows these are likely fake or cherry-picked results, but your emotional mind starts whispering: “Maybe just this once…”
The Hidden Cost of “Special” Trades
We all have them. Those trades that feel different. The setup looks so perfect that our normal risk management rules seem too conservative. We tell ourselves this is a “special situation” that deserves special treatment.
I learned this lesson the hard way with prop firm challenges. I would be up 6% on a challenge, nearly at the profit target. Then I’d see a “perfect setup” and increase my risk to “speed things up.” Almost every time, these “special” trades would end up failing the challenge.
What’s worse, even when these larger positions worked out, they reinforced bad habits. Each successful oversized trade became ammunition for my brain to justify breaking rules in the future.
The Compound Effect of Risk Management Violations
The real danger isn’t just the immediate loss from one oversized trade. It’s the psychological damage that comes from breaking your own rules. Each time you violate your risk management rules and survive, you reinforce the behavior. This is even worse when you violate your rules and profit from the market. You will think that you’re invincible.
Think about your last few trades. How many times did you do these?
Move your stop loss to “give the trade room”?
Add to a losing position because the price looked “even better”?
Increase your position size because you were sure about the setup?
Each of these decisions might seem small at the moment. But they create a compound effect that eventually leads to huge losses.
The Professional’s Reality
Want to know what real professional trading looks like? It’s mind-numbingly systematic. I now manage multiple six-figure funded accounts, and my risk management is completely automated.
Before each trading day, I calculate my maximum position size based on 1% risk. I set up my position calculator with my account size. I write down my maximum loss for the day.
During trading, I input my stop loss distance into my calculator. I take the position size it gives me. No exceptions I set my orders and walk away
This isn’t exciting. It’s not flexible. It doesn’t allow for “special situations.” But it works.
Building Systems Instead of Relying on Discipline
The solution to risk management isn’t more knowledge or better discipline. It’s building systems that make it impossible to break your rules.
After losing enough money, I finally created a system that works:
First, I removed the trading app from my phone. This prevents me from making unnecessary trades during my non-trading hours. It is also difficult to trade using a phone as I do not have the tools needed for my analysis.
Second, I use a position size calculator. It automatically calculates my maximum position size based on stop loss distance with my account size.
Third, I track every risk management violation in a journal. This forces me to confront my mistakes instead of ignoring them.
The Reality of Recovery
Let’s talk about something most traders don’t want to face. The mathematics of recovery.
A 20% loss requires a 25% gain to break even
A 30% loss requires a 43% gain to break even
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to break even
But knowing these numbers isn’t enough. You need to experience first hand the pain of trying to recover from a large drawdown. Only then, will you truly understand why risk management matters. I’m sure you have experienced it one way or another. Wins and losses are not made equally.
I remember sitting at my desk, staring at a 40% drawdown in my account. I was entering all sorts of entries on my entry time frame, without considering the context of the higher time frames. I needed a 67% return just to break even. The feeling of wanting to break even led me to take even bigger risks, trying to recover faster. Instead, I dug myself into an even deeper hole and eventually lost my account.
The Path to Consistent Risk Management
The hardest part about proper risk management isn’t understanding what to do. It’s being satisfied with the results when you do it correctly.
When you’re risking 1% per trade, a good month might only yield 5–10% returns. This feels painfully slow compared to the potential returns of larger position sizes. But here’s what I’ve learned: those “slow” months compound into significant returns over time, while aggressive trading eventually leads to blown accounts or even giving up on trading forever.
Taking Action: Building Your Risk Management Framework
I know it’s not easy to adhere to your risk management rules. You know this skill is essential for your growth in your trading career. If you’re still struggling with risk management, here’s what you need to do:
First, accept that your current approach isn’t working. If you’re consistently breaking your rules, you need a complete system overhaul, not just better discipline.
Second, automate everything you can. Use position calculators, set up your orders in advance, remove the ability to trade from your phone.
Third, create accountability. Share your trades with a mentor or trading community before entering them. Make it embarrassing to break your rules.
The Choice Ahead
You already know proper risk management is crucial. The question is: Are you ready to build systems that force you to trade properly?
This means accepting that: Your returns might look “small” compared to aggressive traders. You’ll have to watch others take risks you “know” would work. Your account will grow slower than you’d like. Your trading will become boring and systematic
Want to learn how to build these systems and finally master risk management? My newsletter focuses on creating frameworks that make proper risk management automatic. No relying on discipline, no room for “special” trades, just systematic execution.
The market doesn’t care about your knowledge. It only cares about your actions.
Have We Topped?Structure wise fits for a top to be in or damn close here - many are expecting 2025 to be a great year for markets however I think we're going to trend down.
