The SPX On Track To A New All-Time High In 2025 (6,958— Soon!)Do not let anybody distract you, do not allow yourself to be deceived. Know that the market is very resilient and this has been true for the longest time ever. The catastrophe that everybody is always expecting and is always due is never true. Ok, there was a correction, but that's it, from now on the market grows. That's just how it works.
Very, very strong bull markets, and the bear markets weak and short.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) looks great right now and nothing can surpass the wisdom that comes from a chart. A chart cannot lie nor can mislead you in any way.
The charts have pure raw data, you can make your own interpretation of this data but there are no mistakes.
Here the chart shows a very strong higher low. The 0.5 Fib. retracement level was tested and it holds. Now, saying a "new All-Time High" might be speculation, but saying that prices will rise is simply how technical analysis works.
A low first pierced 0.5 and challenged 0.618 fib. The candle closed above and full green, the highest volume since 2010 and that is a clear signal that the correction reached its end.
The SPX is bullish now of course.
The next week we get a red week and this led to the present day, a higher low. A higher low is bullish and notice, the 0.618 level is no longer relevant. The correction that happened was really strong, there is absolutely no need for more.
So a strong correction developed and what comes next?
Prepare for a major rise, a new impulsive bullish wave.
The minimum target starts at 5,665. This is the resistance where the drop got started, this level needs to be tested based on TA. Depending on how this level is handled, we can extract how the market will continue to behave.
» I will make a prediction, the SPX will hit a new All-Time High in the coming months.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
SPX trade ideas
S&P 500 - Key Levels and Measurements (Bonds vs Yields vs Homes)Happy Friday!!!
Starting with a BLANK chart, here are my key levels and measurements for the S&P 500
Earnings season is stable, more MAG 7 next week with AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT
Trump and Company are softening the trade war narrative quickly and the market
is taking notice. Prices recovered nicely this week
5500 SPX is a key level for the bulls to push above - if done look for open space
melt-up into 5700-5800 resistance
If SPX rejects 5500 early next week we will be dealing with some more noise
and intermediate levels
4830 lows will be absolutely critical to maintaining a long-term bull market. You will
see why with this analysis.
Last piece is talking about bonds vs yields and the current housing market in the US
My belief is that yields stay sticky and home prices MUST drop to see any improvements
in affordability
Thanks for watching - have a great weekend!!!
$SPX Sell in May, Go Away, $5k, Dead Cat to $5.3k, $4.8k by EOMAlrighty. My forecast is as follows. I made a video explaining just a quick thought and here's the video in a written version for the most part. Basically, I'm a pattern chart trader and I spend the majority of my days looking for specific candlestick patterns that match candle for candle. I cannot find anything remotely close to today's Price Action besides October 2001. I have been and will continue to be doubted and that's okay. I am not here for anyone except myself and anyone that wants to gain a fresh unbiased perspective. People have called me a Permabear but that only pertains to my personality, which is that of a realist. I do not believe investing for the next 20-50 Years will work for everyone. You'd have to do it well and continuously contribute even during the down days. Either way. This is the analog I will be following. Fib is Extended way beyond Blow Off Top measurements imo. The market gained 50% in One Year and Three Months. I'd like to think that the uncertainty being priced in will cause these Deeper Fib Retracements. We already crashed down to the 1.61 GOLDEN POCKET from above and now bounce back to Secon Golden Pocket at 2.61. Based on the past behavior, now we move back to 2.0 for a move to the original extension of the 1.00 Fib. If we lose this, we start moving back to the 1.27 near $4.74k on SPX where I will then be looking for one final dead cat to $5300 by mid August, Every July dip being grabbed up ... Final Sell in August for an End of Year Crash to Mark 2025 as one of the worst years ever in Life as far as the Market goes. Good Luck everyone. Tips always welcome.
SP500 remains very bearish overall📈 In my previous post, I highlighted the confluence support zone and the potential for a bounce — and we got it. SP500 rallied around +10% off the lows.
But let’s not get too comfortable...
❓ I s the worst behind or is this just a trap before the next leg down?
From my perspective, the correction is not over.
The current bounce looks more like a bear market rally than a true reversal.
📉 Why I expect another drop:
1. Technically, as long as SP500 is trading below 5500-5600 zone, the structure remains bearish
2. Fundamentally, the backdrop hasn’t improved — if anything, it’s getting worse
3. Price is approaching a major resistance zone, which I plan to sell into
📌 My Plan:
I’m watching this zone for signs of weakness.
If momentum fades, I’ll look to short, targeting at least 5k, potentially even a new local low.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Noise, S&P Scenario, Gold BubbleThank you to the tradingview community for engaging and supporting my content.
After another rough start to the week, we have a bit of a crossroads ahead for the S&P
1) We revisit the April 7 lows and poke lower with bear trap opportunities
2) We hold Monday April 21 lows and grind back up to gap fill and revisit 5400-5500 resistance
3) We go nowhere with a lot of intraday volatility and noise (between the April 7 low and the April 9 high)
The markets are on high alert
DXY
Gold
Bitcoin
US Bonds vs Treasuries (yields rising)
Trump is more vocal about threatening the FED or firing Powell and the concern is truly unprecedented
Trade War pause is still ongoing, China is being vocal as well to make sure countries don't simply line up to support the US. For all of this to calm down, US and China have to play nice. China is likely able to hold the line longer than the US in the near-term
Thanks for watching!!!
Potential bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,480.90
1st Support: 5,099.50
1st Resistance: 5,778.60
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SPX: confusion will continueFinally some positive sentiment on the US equity markets. The S&P 500 marked a weekly gain of 4,6%, while investors are waging the relaxation of the ongoing trade tariffs war. Regardless of estimates of the future impact of imposed tariffs, the US tech companies are still posting relatively good results. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.525, which was the market low in March and beginning of April this year.
Alphabet gained 1,5% during the week, on the wings of posted relatively good results above estimates. Other big tech companies were also supported, like Tesla, Nvidia and Meta. Only on Friday, Nvidia gained 4,3%, while Tesla advanced by 9,8% within one day. Regardless of positive weekly results, it is still not time to celebrate. The news regarding trade tariffs coming from the US Administration still continues to be mixed, bringing a high level of confusion among market participants. In this sense, it could be expected that volatility on the equity markets will continue also in the future period.
The SPX Sell Off at 5500Hi all,
It has been a while since we posted as we waited for a really good trade setup. The SPX is hovering at 5500 and we believe it is the right level to sell.
1) There is a shark pattern at this level
2) RSI is overbought on every time frame except H4 and D1
3) There are smaller patterns to sell
4) There is very strong structural resistance at 5510 to 5520
The first target will be 5306 which has a great risk to reward of 1:5.
We will wait for M15 divergence and a trend line break to enter.
What Is the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO), and How to Use ItWhat Is the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO), and How to Use It in Trading?
The McClellan Oscillator is a widely used market breadth indicator that helps traders analyse momentum and market strength. It focuses on the relationship between advancing and declining stocks, offering unique insights beyond price movements. This article explains how the McClellan Oscillator works, its interpretation, and how it compares to other tools.
What Is the McClellan Oscillator?
The McClellan Oscillator is a market breadth indicator that traders use to measure momentum in stock market indices. It’s calculated based on the Advance/Decline Line, which tracks the net number of advancing stocks (those rising in price) minus declining stocks (those falling in price) over a given period.
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is the most common variant, often called the NYMO indicator. However, it can also be applied to any other stock index, like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, or FTSE 100.
Here’s how it works: the indicator uses two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of the advance/decline data—a 19-day EMA for short-term trends and a 39-day EMA for long-term trends. The difference between these two EMAs gives you the oscillator’s value. Positive readings mean more stocks are advancing than declining, pointing to bullish momentum. Negative readings suggest the opposite, with bearish sentiment dominating.
What makes the McClellan indicator particularly useful is its ability to highlight shifts in market momentum that might not be obvious from price movements alone. For example, even if a stock index is rising, a declining indicator could signal that fewer stocks are participating in the rally—a potential warning of weakening breadth.
This indicator is versatile and works well across various timeframes, but it’s particularly popular for analysing daily or weekly market trends. While it’s not designed to provide direct buy or sell signals, it helps traders identify when markets are gaining or losing momentum,
Understanding the Advance/Decline Line
The Advance/Decline (A/D) Line is a market breadth indicator that tracks the difference between the number of advancing stocks and declining stocks. It’s calculated cumulatively, adding each day’s net result to the previous total. This gives a running tally that reflects the broader participation of stocks in a market’s movement, rather than just focusing on a handful of large-cap stocks.
When the A/D Line shows consistent strength or weakness, the McClellan Oscillator amplifies this data, making it potentially easier to spot underlying trends in market breadth. In essence, the A/D Line provides the raw data, while the McClellan refines it into actionable insights.
How to Calculate the McClellan Oscillator
The McClellan Oscillator formula effectively smooths out the daily fluctuations in the A/D data, allowing traders to focus on broader shifts in momentum.
Here’s how it’s calculated:
- Calculate the 19-day EMA of the A/D line (short-term trend).
- Calculate the 39-day EMA of the A/D line (long-term trend).
- Subtract the 39-day EMA from the 19-day EMA. The result is the McClellan Oscillator’s value.
Giving the formula:
- McClellan Oscillator = 19-day EMA of A/D - 39-day EMA of A/D
The result is a line that fluctuates around a midpoint. In practice, a trader might apply the McClellan Oscillator to the S&P 500 on a daily or weekly timeframe, providing insights for trading.
Interpretation of the Oscillator’s Values
- Positive values occur when the 19-day EMA is above the 39-day EMA, indicating that advancing stocks dominate and the market has bullish momentum.
- Negative values occur when the 19-day EMA is below the 39-day EMA, reflecting a bearish trend with declining stocks in control.
- A value near zero suggests balance, where advancing and declining stocks are roughly equal.
Signals Generated
The indicator is popular for identifying shifts in momentum and potential trend changes.
Overbought and Oversold Conditions
- Readings at or above +100 typically indicate an overbought market, where the upward momentum may be overextended.
- Readings at or below -100 suggest an oversold market, with the potential for a recovery.
Crossing Zero
When the indicator crosses above or below zero, it can indicate shifts in market sentiment, with traders often monitoring these transitions closely.
Divergences
- A positive divergence occurs when the indicator rises while the index declines, signalling potential bullish momentum building.
- A negative divergence happens when the indicator falls while the index rises, hinting at weakening momentum.
Using the McClellan Oscillator With Other Indicators
The McClellan Oscillator is a valuable tool for analysing market breadth, but its insights become even more powerful when combined with other indicators. Pairing it with complementary tools can help traders confirm signals, refine their analysis, and better understand overall market conditions.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the strength and speed of price movements, identifying overbought or oversold conditions. While the McClellan Oscillator focuses on market breadth, using RSI along with it can provide confirmation. For example, if both indicators show overbought conditions, it strengthens the case for a potential market pullback.
Moving Averages
Simple or exponential moving averages of price data can help confirm trends identified by the McClellan Oscillator. For instance, if it signals bullish momentum and the index moves above its moving average, this alignment may suggest stronger market conditions.
Volume Indicators (e.g., On-Balance Volume)
Volume is a key component of market analysis. Combining the Oscillator with volume-based indicators can clarify whether breadth signals are supported by strong participation, improving the reliability of momentum shifts.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands measure volatility and provide insight into price ranges. When combined with the McClellan Oscillator, they can help traders assess whether market breadth signals align with overextended price movements, providing additional context.
VIX (Volatility Index)
The VIX measures market sentiment and fear. Cross-referencing it with the McClellan Oscillator can reveal whether market breadth momentum aligns with changes in risk appetite, offering a deeper understanding of sentiment shifts.
Comparing the McClellan Oscillator With Related Indicators
The McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index, and Advance/Decline Ratio all provide insights into market breadth, but they differ in focus and application.
McClellan Oscillator vs McClellan Summation Index
While the Oscillator measures short-term momentum using the difference between 19-day and 39-day EMAs of the Advance/Decline (A/D) Line, the McClellan Summation Index takes a longer-term perspective. It is a cumulative total of the Oscillator's daily values, creating a broader view of market trends.
Think of the Summation Index as the "big picture" complement to the Oscillator's granular analysis. Traders often use the Summation Index to track longer-term trends and identify major turning points, while the Oscillator is more popular when monitoring immediate momentum shifts and overbought/oversold conditions.
McClellan Oscillator vs Advance/Decline Ratio
The Advance/Decline Ratio is a simpler calculation, dividing the number of advancing stocks by the number of declining stocks. While it provides a snapshot of market breadth, it lacks the depth of analysis offered by the McClellan Oscillator.
The Oscillator refines raw A/D data with exponential moving averages, smoothing out noise and making it potentially easier to identify meaningful trends and divergences. The A/D Ratio, on the other hand, is more reactive and generally better suited for short-term intraday signals.
Advantages and Limitations of the McClellan Oscillator
The McClellan Oscillator is a powerful tool for analysing market breadth, but like any indicator, it has strengths and weaknesses. Understanding both can help traders decide how best to integrate it into their analysis.
Advantages
- Focus on Market Breadth: By analysing the Advance/Decline data, the indicator provides a clearer picture of how many stocks are participating in a trend, not just the performance of index heavyweights.
- Momentum Insights: Its ability to highlight shifts in short-term momentum allows traders to spot potential turning points before they become evident in price action.
- Identification of Divergences: It excels at identifying divergences between market breadth and price, offering early signals of weakening trends or upcoming reversals.
- Overbought/Oversold Signals: Its range helps traders analyse extreme conditions (+100/-100), which can signal potential market corrections or recoveries.
Limitations
- Not a Standalone Tool: The indicator is combined with other indicators or broader analysis, as it doesn’t provide specific entry or exit signals.
- False Signals in Volatile Markets: During periods of high volatility or low trading volume, the oscillator may generate misleading signals, making context crucial.
- Short-Term Focus: While excellent for momentum analysis, it doesn’t provide the long-term perspective offered by tools like the McClellan Summation Index.
The Bottom Line
The McClellan Oscillator is a powerful tool for analysing market breadth, helping traders gain insights into momentum and potential market shifts. While not a standalone solution, it is often combined with other indicators for a well-rounded approach.
FAQ
What Is a NYMO Oscillator?
The NYMO oscillator, short for the New York McClellan Oscillator, is a market breadth indicator based on the Advance/Decline stock data of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The NYMO index calculates the difference between a 19-day and 39-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Advance/Decline line, providing insights into stock market momentum and sentiment.
What Does the McClellan Oscillator Show?
The McClellan Oscillator shows the balance of advancing and declining stocks in a market. Positive values indicate bullish momentum, while negative values reflect bearish sentiment. It’s often used to identify potential shifts in momentum or divergences between market breadth and price.
What Is the McClellan Oscillator in MACD?
The McClellan Oscillator and MACD are distinct indicators, but both use moving averages. While MACD measures price momentum, the Oscillator focuses on market breadth by analysing the Advance/Decline Line.
What Is the McClellan Summation Indicator?
The McClellan Summation Index is a cumulative version of the McClellan Oscillator. It provides a broader view of market trends, tracking long-term momentum and overall market strength.
What Is the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator?
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator, sometimes called the NAMO, applies the same calculation as the NYMO but uses Advance/Decline data from the Nasdaq exchange. It helps traders analyse momentum and breadth in technology-heavy markets.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P 500 tests key resistance as trade uncertainty continuesTrump continues to say positive things - just now suggesting that they are very close to a deal with Japan on tariffs. But it is China where the bulk of uncertainty lies. He has been quite upbeat this week, but China continues to push back against the optimism.
European indices extended their gains, buoyed by the previous day’s upbeat mood, while US futures have given up their earlier gains. The shift likely linked to an interesting interview US President Donald Trump gave to Time Magazine.
While Trump claimed Chinese President Xi had personally rung him — and insisted that negotiations with Beijing were progressing — it was his remark that he’d consider “50% tariffs a year from now” to be a success that seemed to spook investors. Unsurprisingly, that struck a more hawkish tone, nudging some traders to lock in profits.
Earlier in the session, risk appetite had been given a lift after reports surfaced that China was weighing tariff exemptions for select US imports. This, combined with upbeat comments from Trump the day before and a solid set of earnings from Alphabet, helped extend the rally in equities.
Gold, meanwhile, gave back some ground — dipping below the $3,300 mark — as safe haven demand cooled in response to the renewed optimism. Yet, beneath the surface, caution remains palpable. Trump’s off-the-cuff comment about 50% tariffs a year from now served as a stark reminder that nothing is set in stone, and that the trade saga is far from over.
As such, while some of the worst risk-off flows may be behind us, it’s far too soon to declare an end to the market turmoil. A period of consolidation — both in equities and gold — may now be on the cards.
Meanwhile the S&P 500 has entered a key area of resistance between 5490 to 5550 area. A bearish trend line also comes into play. A clean break should be positive from a short-term point of view, while a sharp rejection is what the bears would be looking for.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
S&P500: Buying accelerating as the bottom is confirmed.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.628, MACD = -41.490, ADX = 32.588) as it has been volatile during the day but on the long-term, it has resumed the bullish trend, making a strong recovery last week. The bottom is now confirmed (above the 1W MA200) and as the oversold 1W RSI was bought, the index eyes a +28.50% rise on the medium term, same as in early 2024. This falls practically on the previous ATH level (TP = 6,150).
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Bearish drop?S&P500 is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,510.94
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 5,665.52
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 5,324.97
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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US500 Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for US500.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 5,525.49.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 5,306.14 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
US500 Day Trade Setup: Liquidity Pools, Gaps & What’s Next?The US500 (S&P 500) 4-hour chart recently showed a gap up, followed by a strong move into the previous range highs. This price action likely triggered buy stops and tapped into buy-side liquidity above the prior swing highs. After this liquidity sweep, the market has pulled back and is now consolidating just above a visible gap, which sits slightly below the current price level.
From a Wyckoff perspective, this resembles an upthrust after distribution, where price runs stops above resistance before reversing. The current pullback suggests a potential test of the gap area, which often acts as a magnet for price, especially if there’s unmitigated liquidity left behind.
Using ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts, the recent move above the range high can be seen as a raid on buy-side liquidity, followed by a retracement. The gap below current price represents an imbalance, and ICT traders often look for price to revisit such inefficiencies before resuming the trend.
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Backdrop
Recent data shows the S&P 500 has experienced a sharp correction in April, with a monthly drop of about 5.75% from the previous month, but it remains up 6.8% year-over-year (YCharts). The market has been volatile, with sentiment shifting due to macroeconomic concerns, including renewed trade tensions (notably new tariffs), a mixed earnings season, and questions about the Federal Reserve’s next moves (IG).
Wall Street analysts have recently revised their year-end targets lower, citing increased risks from tariffs and slowing earnings growth (Yahoo Finance). The VIX is elevated (28.45), and the put/call ratio is above 1, indicating heightened hedging and caution among market participants (YCharts).
🏦 Wyckoff & ICT Concepts in Play
🏗️ Wyckoff: The recent rally into the highs and subsequent pullback fits the upthrust after distribution narrative. If the market fails to reclaim the highs, a move back into the gap (potentially as a sign of weakness) is likely.
💧 ICT: The gap below current price is a clear area of interest. If price trades down to fill this gap, watch for a reaction—either a bounce (if demand steps in) or a continuation lower if the gap fails to hold.
💡 Day Trade Idea (Not Intra-day)
Scenario: If price trades down to fill the gap just below the current level (around 5,300–5,320), monitor for a bullish reaction (such as a strong daily close, a bullish order block, or a clear rejection wick).
Trade Plan:
🕵️♂️ Wait for price to fill the gap and show a bullish daily signal.
🎯 Enter a day trade long at the next day’s open if confirmation is present (e.g., a bullish daily candle close or a break above the previous day’s high).
🛑 Place a stop loss just below the gap or the most recent swing low.
📈 Target the previous high near 5,400 for a day trade, or consider scaling out if momentum continues.
Alternative: If price fails to hold the gap and closes below it on the daily chart, consider a day trade short the following day, targeting the next liquidity pool below (e.g., 5,200).
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should do your own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 - Key Levels and April 7-11 Weekly Candle StructureApril 7-11 will easily be remembered in 2025 as one of the craziest weeks in modern history.
Intraday swings were face ripping all from a Monday "fake news" becoming Wednesday "real news" with the US pausing tariffs for 90 days
5500 major resistance on S&P
4800 major support on S&P
I believe the market will struggle to provide any clear direction in the coming weeks without some shift in narrative (for better or worse). I'm sure most traders are hoping for an optimistic tone but be prepared to be disappointed as the world's alliances and economies are being strained with massive uncertainty and angst.
There are trading opportunities in the short-term, but I'm not taking any major risks. If I can survive, the upside will be easier and a pleasant surprise.
I expect the weekly candles to dance inside the April 7-11 low and high levels and hopefully it provides some ventilation to a VIX > 30