Hidden bearish divergenceI have noticed a hidden bearish divergence on 4h tf - like in August. Should go down soon, but still can go a little bit higher, there are volumes at 6055 (oanda).
SPX trade ideas
SPX 's bearish retest#spx SP:SPX index is now testing the trendline resistance zone, if this bearish retest succeeds there' ll likely be more dumps in market in LTF. Not financial advice.
SPX: Fed`s game of marketsMarkets were happy prior to Fed's rate cut in December in expectation of an additional drop of 25 bps of reference interest rates. However, Fed Chair Powell said something that markets did not expect to hear - inflation is going to be persistent in 2025, hence, Fed would most likely cut rates by only 50 bps during the next year. The correction was immediate, and the S&P 500 dropped from the level of 6,080 down to 5.867. The index recovered a bit during Friday's trading session to the level of 5.930, after cooling inflation data.
All sectors included in the S&P 500 gained on Friday, indicating that the market most probably overreacted during the previous two days. Still, this jump in the market value was not enough to cover weekly losses. A cooling inflation data for November made markets revise their initial projections and value equities at higher levels. Still, considering that the Holiday season in Western markets starts in the middle of the week ahead, it is questionable whether the S&P 500 has the strength to reach for one more time level from two weeks ago.
Critical Levels in S&P 500 Index this weekNavigating the S&P 500: What to Watch This Christmas Week
If you look at the S&P 500's technical chart, you'll notice something intriguing: Friday's rebound wasn't just any rebound — it came with a surge in volume. The Index is flirting with its 50-day Moving Average, a key indicator with investors on edge. As long as macroeconomic data doesn’t throw any curveballs, there's a promising outlook for a festive rally in the stock market this Christmas week. My eyes are on the 6,000 mark for the SPX as a pivotal point. If the momentum continues, we might even see it touch 6,100, which could be the ceiling for this bullish run.
Rate Cut Disappoints: Stocks and Gold Experience Sharp Declines◉ Abstract
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%, marking its third cut in a row. However, the Fed also said it might not cut rates much more in the future because it expects the economy to grow stronger and inflation to continue. This cautious message worried investors, causing a sharp drop in the stock market.
The S&P 500 fell about 2.96%, its biggest one-day loss since August. Gold prices also dropped by around 1.6%. The declines in both stocks and gold show that investors are feeling uncertain about the economy and are rethinking their investments based on the Fed's outlook.
Continue reading the full article:
◉ Introduction
On December 18, 2024, both the S&P 500 and gold experienced significant declines, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and market reactions to economic forecasts.
◉ Federal Reserve's Decision
● The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%. This is typically a positive move for equities and commodities like gold.
● However, the Fed signalled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, expecting stronger economic growth and persistent inflation.
● This cautious outlook raised concerns about the possibility of limited future rate cuts, which spooked investors.
◉ Market Reactions
1. Stock Market Decline
● The S&P 500 fell by approximately 2.96%, marking its largest single-day percentage drop since August 5th.
● The market's reaction reflected a realization that previous optimistic expectations about aggressive rate cuts were misplaced.
2. Gold's Decline
● Gold prices dropped sharply, with an intraday decline of about 1.6%.
● Gold, while a safe-haven asset, is less desirable in a rising rate environment due to increased opportunity costs.
● With the Fed's indication of fewer future rate cuts, investors shifted away from gold.
◉ Overall Market Sentiment
The simultaneous decline in both equities and gold can be attributed to a broader market sentiment that reacted negatively to the Fed's cautious outlook on inflation and growth prospects. This created a risk-off environment where investors were uncertain about both stock valuations and commodity holdings.
S&P500: Recovery mode activated. Next stop 6,200.S&P500 turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.702, MACD = 16.670, ADX = 24.717) as it rebounded near the 1D MA100, which happened to be just under the bottom of the long term Channel Up and has recovered more than 50% of last week's correction. In the meantime, the 1D RSI is making a bullish reversal idential to the last two bottoms. The two prior bullish waves of the Channel Up topped on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our target (TP = 6,200).
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SPX A clear dinosaur pattern! Bearish till the shoulderline!I think chart speaks enough. Its very clear. A big signal! Ears are the top supports
S&P500 entering a new Bull Cycle according to the Dollar IndexThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 2022 market bottom, as it recovered from the Inflation Crisis of 2022. Despite the All Time Highs (ATH) that it is currently trading at, we have strong evidence based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that it is entering a new, more structured Bull Cycle.
As you can see on this cross chart analysis on the 1W time-frame, the market has been on a multi-year uptrend with clear Phases, ever since the March 2009 bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. At the same time, the DXY (blue trend-line) initiated its own Channel Up.
Every time the DXY bottomed, the S&P500 transitioned from the more aggressive, recovery phase (blue Arc pattern) of the Bear Cycle to a more structured (green) Channel Up. As long as the DXY remains below its (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line, the uptrend of the Channel Up is being extended. Once broken, the stock market starts to form a top, which is natural as a strong/ expensive dollar is far from ideal for buying risky assets like stocks.
In any case, it appears that the DXY bottomed in late September 2024 and rebounded aggressively. This is rebound is the exact behavior it has when the previous two (green) Channel Up patterns started. As a result, we believe that the S&P500 has ahead of it around 4 years of growth within this Channel Up, whose pull-backs/ corrections will be the cyclical buy opportunities.
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S&P500 INDEX (US500): Time to Recover
It looks like US500 is ready to recover after the yesterday's
crazy bearish movement.
We may see a pullback at least to 5940/
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Planning SPX Longs into A Break Lower SPX made the top off the 2.61 and today on the news of rate cuts it slammed to the implied target level for that.
Hit targets on a lot of my shorts today. Have some extremely deep OTMs still running but these are a nominal part of my risk and just there to benefit from a super rejection of the macro 4.23 fib.
In terms of nearer term swing assessment, we're now getting close to the level I think we'd be likely to find support if this is a bull move that is just having a flash crash correction.
Planning to start picking up longs if we spike down closer to 5800. Will likely buy deep OTM calls at this price if we hit it.
Broadly speaking risk off on my positions at the moment. Banked most of my profits. Don't plan to do much trading the rest of the year.
Do plan to do a lot of trade plan prepping for decision at the macro inflection point.
Whatever way it goes, my hypothesis is we're going to see faster and faster markets going forward. Great times to be a trader. I want to make sure I'm prepped to benefit from any of the "Known" outcomes that fit inside my strats.
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,869.57
1st Support: 5,707.08
1st Resistance: 6,093.53
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Pitchfork from March '23 low still shows strong trendPitchfork from March '23 low still shows alignment and strong trend for log scale but in upper resistance for lineal scale.
US500 Is Very Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for US500.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 6,060.5.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 6,114.4 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
US500Hello friends
This is the resistance area that you see, if the price reaches there and the fall is confirmed, we expect a downward step from it to the specified range.
Be successful and profitable.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Market Reaction to Fed Rate DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The Fed Rate Decision is Coming Today!
The market is expected to be volatile due to the Fed’s rate decision, with a potential decrease of 25 basis points.
As mentioned earlier this week, the S&P 500 has been following a bullish trend, pushing up from 6022. Today, the index is likely to attempt to reach 6099. If it successfully breaks above 6100, it would confirm a bullish zone, with the potential to climb further toward 6143, especially if the Fed reduces rates by 25 bps.
On the other hand, failure to maintain momentum above 6099 could result in the index trading between 6099 and 6022. A bearish trend could begin if 6099 is broken on the downside.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6099
Resistance Levels: 6143, 6166, 6190
Support Levels: 6058, 6022, 5971
Trend Outlook:
Upward Trend: Above 6099
Downward Trend: Below 6022
previous idea:
SPX - H4 - keep going upMy analysis shows that the SPX may have a few days sideways but will shoot up to 6260 as the next resistance.
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could rise to the 38.3% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 5,868.52
1st Support: 5,788.39
1st Resistance: 5,930.95
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P 500 Rally: Why a 5k Target Might Be More Likely Than 7kSince November of last year, the SP:SPX has surged by 50%, and if we look at the gains from this year alone, we're seeing around a 30% increase. Additionally, the rise from August is 20% which is significant in just five months.
Considering the rapid pace of these increases, especially for such a major index, it gives me the impression that the S&P 500 may be overstretched.
Statistically, such strong rallies either follow a deep bear market or precede a significant pullback.
Since we haven't experienced a strong bear market recently, I believe a correction could be on the horizon.
Technically, the market remains in an uptrend, but the price action from August has been in steps. This type of movement often signals distribution and a potential reversal.
In conclusion, while a new all-time high by the end of the year is almost certain, I'm not overly optimistic about the long-term outlook.
A pullback to around 5,000 seems more likely to me than a rally to 7,000.
S&P500 5 month Channel Up bottomed. Bullish reversal started.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up since the August 5th bottom.
Wednesday's Fed fueled correction crossed under the 1day MA50 but stabilized yesterday and today found support over the 1day MA100 and rebounded.
This low is very close to the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1day MA100 was the level that supported the early September pull back.
The 1day RSI is also reversing, and the 3 times it posted a similar pattern inside the Channel Up, it was a bottom.
Buy and target 6200 (+7.10% from the bottom).
Previous chart:
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US500 SELL?hello guys
Due to the failure of the ascending structure and hitting a lower floor, we expect to have a fall from the specified box range to the specified targets.
Note that this analysis is technically reviewed.
Be successful and profitable.
Futures Steady After Wall Street Slump on Fed Rate Cut OutlookFutures Steady After Wall Street Declines on Fed's View of Fewer Rate Cuts
U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve's revised projections, which include fewer-than-expected interest rate cuts and elevated inflation expectations for next year. These updates caused a significant sell-off on Wall Street the day before.
On Wednesday, the Fed announced its forecast of only two 25 basis point (bps) rate cuts in 2024, halving its previous projection from September. The central bank also raised inflation expectations for the early months of the incoming administration. These adjustments triggered the steepest daily declines in the three major U.S. stock indices since August.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline of more than 3.5% due to the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce interest rates by only 25 bps. This decision created uncertainty and weighed heavily on investor sentiment.
Today, the U.S. GDP report is a key event that could significantly impact the market. The GDP growth rate is projected to decline by 2.8% compared to the previous period.
If the GDP data comes in below 2.8%, the market may turn bullish, potentially reaching 5971.
If the GDP data exceeds 2.8%, the bearish trend could continue, with the S&P 500 targeting levels of 5885 and 5863.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 5932
Resistance Levels: 5971, 5988, 6020
Support Levels: 5885, 5863, 5837
Trend Outlook
Downward Trend: Likely to persist if the price remains below 5932.
Upward Trend: Potential recovery if the price breaks above 5932.
SP500 Weekly Trade Idea – Valid only with Close below 5977.8The S&P 500 has been on a stellar rally this year, rewarding long-term investors who bought and held through market turbulence. However, the current technical and macroeconomic setup suggests a possible correction could be on the horizon. Here’s how to approach it strategically.
🛠️ Technical Analysis from the Chart:
1️⃣ **Resistance Zone (6025-6050):**
- The index is facing strong resistance in this red zone, indicating a potential **stall in bullish momentum**. Failure to break through this level increases the likelihood of a pullback.
2️⃣ Critical Support Levels:
- **5690-5628 Zone:** First significant demand zone. A break below could trigger deeper corrections.
- **5395-5365 Zone:** Key structural support from previous accumulation.
- Long-term potential target near **4500**, aligning with historical correction structures.
3️⃣ Weekly Close Watch (5977.8):
- A **close below 5977.8** could confirm the start of a correction, likely forming a 3-to-5 wave structure typical of corrective phases.
🌍 Macro Context – Inflation and Valuations:
- Inflation Data:
- In **March 2020**, inflation was at **1.5%**, and stimulus packages helped buoy the market.
- By **March 2021**, inflation climbed to **2.6%**, reflecting economic recovery and stimulus impacts.
- November 2024 inflation** sits at **2.7%**, signaling a moderating trend but with base effects and monetary policies still in play.
- Market Valuations:
- The **Buffett Indicator** (Market Cap to GDP ratio) shows the market remains significantly overvalued. This aligns with Warren Buffett’s recent positioning, where **25% of his portfolio is in cash**, waiting for better buying opportunities.
💡 Trade Idea:
📉 Prepare for the Correction:
- A correction to the **4500 level** would represent a compelling buying opportunity for long-term investors.
- Avoid shorting the market; instead, focus on cash preservation and building a watchlist of fundamentally strong companies.
📊 Long-Term Strategy:
- Stick to Warren Buffett’s principle: **"Be greedy when others are fearful."**
- Utilize cash reserves to capitalize on discounted prices during market panic.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: **6025-6050
- Supports: **5690-5628**, **5395-5365**, and long-term 4500.
🚀 Optimistic Outlook:
Corrections are **opportunities, not threats**. They allow investors to buy quality assets at a discount and position themselves for the next bull cycle.
"Price is what you pay; value is what you get." – Warren Buffett 🐂✨
Let volatility work in your favor! 🌟
