GENERATIONAL unwind in stock markets starting.GENERATIONAL unwind in stock markets starting.
This capital rotation is a VERY rare macro event, which very few traders have previously lived through.
Is your financial advisor AWARE of this?
SPX trade ideas
SPX Targets 5400 - 5150 - 4750Hi Traders,
We so far we are following the pattern of 2022... If so we should be beginning the next down leg and looks like with Trump announcing auto Tarrifs today I expect it begins now instead of waiting till April 2, Liberation day, as Trump calls it. He is the default EW indicator which appears to capture the levels I was looking at using other TA. This won't be a sudden drop but I expect some if not all these levels to be hit once all is said and done. The market needs to become a lot cheaper for people to want to invest into a Tariff type environment. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out with strong Tariffs on April 2 that we end up going into a recession by summer. The only way to get lower rates like trump wants is to tank the market which I think he is ok with to do. Lets see how this plays out.
Capitulation Might be Close, but A Big Low Could Be Also.I've explained for a while my idea if 5500 isn't support for SPX then we see a capitulation period to the 5100 sort of area.
I think the case for this is picking up increasing merit. For a while I've not really been sure what to expect if that happened. My natural tendency to fade moves would make me naturally bullish but some different outcomes I considered would have that move being an important break and us only consolidating before heading lower.
With the way all of this is shaping up, I think if I see a capitulation period now I have a strong bull bias. I do think we might be setting up a much larger decline overall but a sharp drop here would usually give some sort of bull trap.
There are different ranges of bull traps. Shallow, mid and deep and spike out. Modern day markets run perpetually on hard-mode so it's reasonable to expect the most tricky one.
Big bull bias for the immediate term if we put in a capitulation swing.
I built up a position into the rally today. Which was not a lot of fun during sections of the day and harrowing for a moment late in the day but has me positioned well into the rally. I'm looking for a move down to under 5200 and close to 5100. My target would be 5150 or so at biggest with aggressive locking in near 5200.
If this move hits (especially if it hits with bad news), will be super bullish for the near term - but I would consider this an important bear break if it comes.
S&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's TariffS&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's Tariff Announcement
As shown on the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, the benchmark US stock index dropped below 5,450 points for the first time in 2025. This decline reflects the US stock market’s reaction to the tariffs imposed by the White House on international trade.
According to Reuters:
→ President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on most goods imported into the United States, with Asian countries being hit the hardest.
→ This move escalates the global trade war. "The consequences will be devastating for millions of people worldwide," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adding that the 27-member EU bloc is preparing to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail.
Financial Markets’ Reaction to Trump’s Tariffs
→ Stock markets in Beijing and Tokyo fell to multi-month lows.
→ Gold hit a new all-time high, surpassing $3,160.
→ The US dollar weakened against other major currencies.
The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is now trading at levels last seen in September 2024, before Trump's election victory.
Investor sentiment appears to have turned bearish, with growing concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs, as fears mount that they could slow down the US economy and fuel inflation.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
The bearish momentum seen yesterday signals a continued correction, which we first identified in our 17 March analysis.
At that time, we mapped out a rising channel (blue) that began in 2024, suggesting that selling pressure might ease near its lower boundary. However, Trump's policy decision has reinforced bearish confidence, and now the price may continue fluctuating within the two downward-sloping red lines. This suggests that the long-term blue growth channel is losing its relevance.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P500 Last time it made that bottom was 18 months ago.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a multi year Channel Up that goes back to October 2022.
The index almost hit the Channel bottom this week and immediately we see a rebound attempt.
It may be under the 1week MA50 but this is not disastrous as the patterns last bottom was formed exactly under it on October 23rd 2023, 18 months ago.
On top of that, the 1week RSI was exactly where it is now, on the 40.00 Support, bearish enough to call for a long term buy.
In addition, the both bearish waved leading to both bottoms were almost -11%. This high symmetry potential suggests that the bullish wave that will follow may be of a similar +28.34% rise.
This is a unique opportunity to buy and target 7000.
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Liberation morningMarkets did sell off last night and the VIX did start breaking up, so I believe another leg down is upon us. However, the chance for a C wave rally from the lows is possible, so caution is necessary.
Stocks jittery as markets await tariffs Volatility was again the name of the game in equity markets as investors braced for President Donald Trump’s impending tariff announcement, which promises to reshape global trade dynamics. With uncertainty swirling around the scope and impact of his so-called reciprocal tariffs, there remains little consensus on how markets will react as the final deliberations unfold.
A few headlines that have come out:
Trump administration official has confirmed that Amazon has put in a bid to buy TikTok
Tesla Inc. jumped 5% on hopes Elon Musk will refocus on the carmaker as a news report suggested his time as a top adviser to Trump may end soon.
US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% -- Sky News
The bands will differ by both country and industry depending on how the White House views barriers to trade.
CNBC: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING REVOCATION OF TARIFF EXEMPTIONS FOR CHEAP SHIPMENTS FROM CHINA - SOURCE
Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight - Reuters
The key resistance area to watch today is between 5670 to 5695 - as shaded in yellow on the chart. This zone was previously support and has now turned into a bit of resistance, capping today's gains. Will the selling pressure resume from here or do we go back above it?
It all depends on severity of tariffs.
In the event we go lower, then the area between 5500 to 5550 is the key support zone to watch.
In the event the market go higher, and break through 5670 to 5695 zone, then the 200-day average and prior resistance near 5770-5787 will come into focus next.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5830.Colleagues, the previous forecast is not canceled, but I decided to update it a bit in the form of a new forecast. I have set the target a little closer, so that I don't have to wait too long.
I believe that the price will continue its upward movement and will reach the area of 5830. It is quite possible that the price will correct to the area of 5597, completing the wave “2” of small order.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P to find buyers at current market price?US500 - Intraday
Closed the day little net changed.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Immediate signals are hard to interpret.
Bespoke resistance is located at 5853.
Bespoke support is located at 5536.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
We look to Buy at 5609 (stop at 5572)
Our profit targets will be 5719 and 5853
Resistance: 5719 / 5737 / 5853
Support: 5616 / 5607 / 5536
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S&P500: Recovery has started and the next stop is the 1D MA50.S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.213, MACD = -61.280, ADX = 30.163) as it's recovered from Friday's bearish sentiment and already crossed above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This rebound made Monday's low a Double Bottom and since the 1D RSI is on a HL bullish divergence, we expect a strong 1 month rally to start. The first target is the 1D MA50 slightly over the 0.5 Fib mark (TP1 = 5,835) and after a small correction, the 0.786 Fib (TP2 = 6,000), which is also the top of the 5 month Bull Flag.
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S&P entering rough path in 2025 It seems S&P is going through a soft bounce back after selloff towards 10W MA around 58-5900 levels. This could be the strong rejection leading to summer lows around 52-5300 range .
If Macro is promising could resume bull run by providing good entry otherwise a recovery towards 5600 which eventually sees 4800 or 2021 ATH making a long range for 4-5 years providing 2026 to reach towards 5800 level by end of December 2026 and giving a new ATH only in 2027 .
SPX weekly sell off confirmedBetter have some cash in hand, if SPX drop more, BTC will drop even more.
S&P INTRADAY - Stronger Growth, Labour Market ResilientUS Q4 GDP (Annualized) came in at 2.4%, beating forecasts of 2.3%, signalling resilient economic growth despite higher interest rates. A stronger-than-expected economy supports corporate earnings but may also reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.
Initial Jobless Claims (4-week average) declined to 224K from 227K, pointing to continued labor market strength. A tight job market supports consumer spending, which is crucial for corporate revenue but may keep inflationary pressures elevated, influencing Fed policy expectations.
Market Impact:
S&P 500: The better-than-expected GDP and healthy labor market data suggest economic momentum remains intact, supporting corporate earnings and risk appetite. However, persistent strength may delay Fed rate cuts, potentially leading to market volatility.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5780
Resistance Level 2: 5844
Resistance Level 3: 5920
Support Level 1: 5660
Support Level 2: 5604
Support Level 3: 5540
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Is 5,700 the New 6,000?The S&P 500 has struggled recently, and some traders may see risk of further downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the three-day jump above 5,700 early last week. The move peaked around the January low of 5,773. It also represented a false breakout above the November low of 5,696.50.
In other words, two former support levels have emerged as new resistance.
It’s also reminiscent of the price action in January and February, when failure to hold 6,000 triggered selling.
Next, last week’s high occurred at the 200-day simple moving average. That may suggest the longer-term uptrend has ended.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained below the 21-day EMA. That may indicate that a shorter-term downtrend has begun.
Finally, given the weakening momentum, traders may start eyeing longer-term levels for potential support. One potential spot could be the September low of 5,403, followed by the August trough of 5,119.
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S&P 500 Update - 5200 on the horizonFrom an Elliott perspective the market appears to be in a 4th Wave correction. The a and b waves have completed and now the c wave is playing out.
If we look to a 1.618 extension of the a wave , the target projection is 5200.
The bias is to the downside and the bearish sentiment continues to 5200 and possibly an overshoot to lower levels.
Aggressive 0 DTE PUT spreadPlaying the bounce / recovery on a big drop for SPX today, short term 0 DTE.
-5400 +5395 15% gain in premium
SPX: You Need To PrepareLast time I posted on SPX I said that I was sounding the Alarm
I'm going to reiterate that you need to prepare
No fear mongering, no fancy Elliott Wave Charts and no History Lessons in economics
Lets just ask ourselves some really simple questions:
If you lost your job today, how easy do you think it would be to find replacement employment that could maintain your current lifestyle?
How many months of emergency savings do you have?
What is your level of credit card/ debt in general and are you paying more than the minimum payment?
Do you want to own a home? How hopeful are you about your chances to own in the near future?
Are you saving for retirement? No really are you saving..be honest. If not, why?
How happy, hopeful, worried, sad are you? Be honest
And finally:
Do you believe everything will be ok financially for you 10/20 years from now? Be honest
Now ask yourself: What do I have to do so that I can move from believing/not believing to KNOWING that things will be ok?
SPX: tariffs combined with inflationInflation expectations are on the rise again in the US. As markets are closely watching developments with trade tariffs, in combination with increasing inflation, the sentiment ended the week in a red zone. During the week, the S&P 500 was struggling to sustain a bit of positive sentiment, however, Friday's trading session brought back significant sell off of stocks. The week started at 5.780, but it ended at 5.580, losing 1,97% on Friday. In the last six weeks, the index spent five weeks in negative territory.
Tech companies were the ones that dragged the rest of the market to the downside. META and Amazon were down by 4,3%, Apple dropped by 2,66%, Tesla lost 3,51% in value. Trade tariffs are still a cloud which brings high uncertainty to the market. News reported that both Canada and the European Union are considering reciprocal measures as a response to the imposed US tariffs. The US Administration announced last week potential 25% tariffs on all car imports to the US. As long as this kind of trade war is in the open space, it could not be expected that the market would consolidate and stabilize. In this sense, further high volatility might be expected. In the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data for March will be posted, so this would be a day to watch.
S&P500 This is the buy opportunity of the year for a 7000 TargetThe S&P500 index (SPX) is in the process of posting its 2nd straight green 1W candle, following a streak of 4 red weeks since the February 17 peak. That streaκ was technically the Bearish Leg of the 1.5-year Channel Up and as you can see, it made a direct contact with its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
As the same time, the 1W RSI almost touched the 40.00 Support that priced the October 23 2023 Low, which was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The similarities don't stop there as both Bearish Legs had approximately a -10.97% decline, the strongest within that time-frame.
The Bullish Leg that followed that bottom initially peaked on a +28.85% rise, almost touching the 2.236 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the symmetry holds between the Bullish Legs as well, we can be expecting the index to start the new Bullish Leg now and target 7000 by the end of the year, which is marginally below both the 2.236 Fib ext and a potential +28.85% rise.
This may indeed be the best buy opportunity for 2025.
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Looking for a minimum of ES 5850In the days to come our initial pattern off the recent has the high probability to get into the 5850 area.
Here I will be looking for a pullback.
If this pullback can be viewed as corrective in it's structure then I expect the subdivisions and pathway on my ES4Hr chart should follow suit. However, if the pullback turns out to be impulsive, I will be looking for follow through for either Minor B having completed early, or the alternate wave (iv). If that sort of price action were to materialize, it's Friday's low of 5651.25 that must support any drop if we're to continue to subdivide higher and have this minor B take more time.
This doesn't look good for SPX500USDHi traders,
The price action of SPX500USD last week went exactly as what I've said in my outlook.
I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what would be the move after that.
But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair.
Price went corrective up, rejected from the Weekly FVG higher and dropped!
So next week we could see more downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
