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S&P500 // neutral zoneThe market is in a neutral zone. The trend is still long on the weekly, so a break above the long trigger (green), that is the previous daily breakdown, will invite more buyers, and the long expansion phase may kick in. If today it closes significantly below the weekly impulse base, the first targets are the daily and the weekly support levels. In my opinion, day traders have to wait. for the price to get out of this neutral zone. ——— Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated. Level colors: Daily - blue Weekly - purple Monthly - magenta H4 - aqua Long trigger - green Short trigger - red ——— Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ <<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheMarketFlow
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support. Pivot: 5,924.14 1st Support: 5,838.66 1st Resistance: 5,964.07 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by ICmarkets
1
Navigating US Exceptionalism, Valuations, & Volatility in 2025How often do US equities deliver 20%+ annual returns sequentially? The S&P 500 index representing a broad selection of US listed firms generated 24.2% in 2023 and 23.3% in 2024. Source: Visual Capitalist So, what is in store for 2025? Analyst consensus points to a 10% upside in 2025 given strong economic fundamentals, AI-led capex and productivity gains, and robust earnings. YEAR AFTER ELECTION IS KNOWN TO BE BULLISH FOR US EQUITIES Adding to that, historically, the S&P 500 has been bullish during the first year of new US Presidency in a four-year cycle. Since the results of the US election on November 6 2024, more than USD 15 billion has flown into the US equities over the last two months. Historical trends in the S&P 500 from election day to year-end show a positive 4% median return. The average return for Year 1 of the election cycle is 6.7%, which is higher than Year 2's 3.3% but lower than the third year at 13.5%. Source: Plante Moran Wealth Management These trends are in line with the assumption that newly elected Presidents attempt to keep up electoral promises and direct resources toward significant legislative efforts during their first two years in office, before shifting focus to more market-friendly policies in Year 3. WILL AI SAVE THE DAY OR CRUSH IT? AI’s anticipated transformative impact is the cornerstone of US equity resilience. The Magnificent Seven have been at the forefront of this revolution, benefiting from outsized capex and advancements that aim to redefine productivity. Corporate earnings are projected to grow annually by 7%–14% in 2025, adding further strength. Structural shifts in capital allocation toward AI-driven industries are expected to sustain sectoral leadership, driving equity markets higher. Economic fundamentals remain robust, with GDP growth expected at 2.3% (above the long-term average). The S&P 500 P/E Ratio Forward Estimate is at 23.55x, down from 24.60x last quarter & 28.16x a year ago. While expectations have eased and are testing levels of Q2 2023, concerns are aplenty on existing valuations being priced to perfection. Source: YCharts Historically, elevated valuations have been accompanied by speculative mania, such as the dot-com bubble when tech stocks traded at multiples exceeding 100x earnings. By contrast, today’s forward P/E ratio of 23.5x is high relative to the post-war average of 16 but remains far below the extremes of past bubbles. Take Nvidia for example. It trades at a forward multiple in the low 30s, but is also supported by its dominance in AI, projected double-digit earnings growth, and mind blowing RoE. For the quarter ending October 2024, NVIDIA’s return on equity was >116%. Viewed in this lens, the pricing contrasts sharply with the speculative fervour of the 1990s when companies with no profits were valued based on “eyeballs”. Moreover, concentrated market leadership is not new but has become more pronounced. The market capitalisation of the seven largest components of the S&P 500 at about $17.8 trillion represents almost 35% of the index’s total capitalisation. This is double their share from five years ago and higher than the 22% seen during the bubble in 2000. Today’s high valuations and concentrated dominance are backed by structural profitability and scale advantages, such as Meta's USD 44 billion in annual free cash flow in 2023 and Apple's nearly USD 400 billion in revenue in recent years. TEMPER BULLISH SENTIMENTS WITH PRUDENCE Bullishness aside, the S&P 500 is projected to deliver modest returns of approximately 3% per annum over the next ten years, as per Goldman Sachs . Morgan Stanley shares a similar sentiment for the long-term, but also states a 9% upside outlook for 2025. Prudence remains paramount. Expected structural shifts in fiscal and monetary policies, elevated valuations, and geopolitical risks, all temper long-term return expectations while creating a precarious yet opportunity-packed macro backdrop. Justifications for high valuations notwithstanding, concerns persist about the limited scope for significant market upsides, and the increased risk of corrections if earnings disappoint or macroeconomic conditions turn shaky. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-China trade disputes among other regional conflicts, could spring major shocks as well. Nearly two-thirds of about 900 executives surveyed by McKinsey & Co. assess geopolitical instability as top risk to global growth. In a nutshell, expect to navigate this year with a delicate balance between opportunities and underlying risks lurking in the dark. VOLATILITY CONTINUES TO BE SANGUINE Volatility for the S&P 500 remains sanguine. The current VIX at 16.77% indicates low volatility, despite potential headwinds. Is this the calm before the storm? A subdued VIX might be under-pricing potential risks ahead. A volatile geopolitical landscape, thanks to a President-elect who is known to be “predictably unpredictable,” could lead to episodic volatility spikes. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET-UP Prudent portfolio manager can exploit low volatility by deploying tactical risk management strategies such as reverse iron butterflies. CME Group offers options on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures which enables granular and affordable portfolio hedging strategies. Using these feature-rich products, portfolio managers can construct prudent risk management positions to limit downside risk while also gaining from upside price moves. A reverse iron butterfly consists of four legs. Two legs, representing a long call and a long put option at-the-money, combined with an out-of-the-money short call and an out-of-the-money short put. The premiums collected from the two short legs offset the premiums to be paid for the two long option positions. Using CME QuikStrike , a portfolio manager can easily construct a reverse iron butterfly options spread expiring on 18th July 2025. A net premium of 311.602 index points is required for the reverse iron butterfly spread. It comprises of (a) long 6050 call (255.533 debit), (b) long 6050 put (247.712 debit), (c) short 5600 put (130.478 credit), and (d) short 6500 call (61.165 credit) as of 9th Jan 2024. Each index point represents USD 5 translating into the net premium of 311.602 index points into USD 1,558.01 in total cost per lot. The pay-off of this spread at expiry is illustrated in the table and the chart below. The spread breaks-even when the underlying CME Micro S&P 500 Futures contract falls below 5738 points (5.2% fall) or rises above 6362 points (5.2% rise). The maximum upside of this trade at expiry is USD 691 if the futures contract settles (a) at or above 6550 or, (b) at or below 5550. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SP:SPXLong
by mintdotfinance
NEW UPDATE UPDATE OF SP500NEW UPDATE UPDATE OF SP500 Hello Guy's this is My OverView For (SPX500) Feel Free To Check It And Write Your Feedback In Comments Please do not forget the like button, Share it with your friends According to my analyse SP price is going to up and the break resistance and hit my target 🎯 As you all see in chart 📉 SP price touch one time resistance and go down 👇 and touch two times supert but not break the support area now price going up and break the resistance Easley and hit my target 🎯 Entry point 👉 5,918.26 Target 🎯 6,199.78 Stop 🛑 loss 5,865.34
SP:SPX
by mrsagarfx
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024🔮 Nightly SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024 📅 Fri Jan 10 ⏰ 8:30am 💰 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.4%) 👷 Non-Farm Employment Change: 164K (prev: 227K) 📉 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (prev: 4.2%) ⏰ 10:00am 📊 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: 74.0 (prev: 74.0) 📈 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: 2.8% 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: The markets are very sensitive right now with the pause. I wouldn't bet that it holds this gap for long. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: A little more upside, and then markets will need the weekend to digest. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPX
by PogChan
S&P500: bottomed on Inverse Head and Shoulders.S&P500 turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.446, MACD = -21.350, ADX = 28.601) as it is under the 4H MA50 since Tuesday. Even though it is on a 4H MA200 rejection, the short term technical pattern that has emerged is an Inverse Head and Shoulders, about to complete the Right Shoulder. With the long term pattern being a Channel Up, we can technically target its top (TP = 6,200), which is under the 2.0 Fib target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
"US500 / SPX500" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500 / SPX500" Indices market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade after the breakout of MA level 5960 (OR) Entry in Pullback 5820 Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 6100 (or) escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ Based on the fundamental analysis, I would conclude that the US500 / SPX500 is : Bullish Reasons: US economic growth: The US economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.5% in 2023, driven by a strong labor market, increasing business investment, and a rebound in the housing market. Monetary policy support: The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at a low level of 1.5%, which is expected to support borrowing and spending in the economy. Fiscal policy support: The US government has announced a series of fiscal stimulus measures, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which are expected to support economic growth. Corporate earnings growth: US companies are expected to report increasing earnings in 2023, driven by a strong global economy and a competitive dollar. Valuation: The US500 / SPX500 is currently trading at a relatively high valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20, but this is still below its historical average. However, it's essential to consider the following risks: Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth could reduce demand for US stocks and drive down the index. Trade tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and other countries, particularly China, could impact the US trade balance and economic growth. Inflation concerns: Rising inflation could lead to higher interest rates, which could negatively impact the economy and the stock market. Key Fundamental Indicators: US GDP growth: 2.5% (2023 estimate) Unemployment rate: 3.5% (2023 estimate) Inflation rate: 2.0% (2023 estimate) Interest rates: 1.5% (2023 estimate) Corporate earnings growth: 10.0% (2023 estimate) Market Sentiment: Bullish sentiment: 75% Bearish sentiment: 25% Neutral sentiment: 0% Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Thief_Trader
US500 in a Possible Bullish ABC WaveUS500 in a Possible Bullish ABC Wave Since January 6th, the price has decreased by nearly 2.45%, from 6018 to 5871. This decline formed a 5-wave movement. It appears the bottom was completed at 5871, and the price may now start forming the C wave of the ABC pattern. If everything proceeds as expected, US500 should develop as shown in the chart, with resistance areas found near 5927, 5962, and 5994. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by KlejdiCuni
5
US500 SHORT For the US100 the market has broken the Daily Market structure line that had been established and has broken through the 50SMA and been consolidating here, forming a symmetric Triangle pattern. We are testing the 100SMA on the daily which is providing support, The Fib Retracement level for US500 for the weekly Move is at around 5300-5600, which is where we will target our short on clear break down of the symmetric triangle. Please like share and comment if you like the Idea and do tell me what else youd like to see! My Goal is to equip traders with the knowledge and ideas that will make them financially Free!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 5,924.14 1st Support: 5,838.66 1st Resistance: 5,964.07 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by ICmarkets
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Looking for a Double CorrectionShort Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests the rally to 6099.6 ended wave ((3)). Pullback in wave ((4)) is currently in progress to correct cycle from December 22, 2022 low. Internal subdivision of the pullback is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave A ended at 6029.89 and wave B rally ended at 6092.59. The Index then resumed lower in wave C towards 5832.3. This completed wave (W) in higher degree. From there, Index corrected in wave (X). Up from wave (W), wave A ended at 5982.06 and wave B ended at 5902.57. Wave C higher ended at 6049.75 which completed wave (X). The Index has resumed lower in wave (Y). Down from wave (X), wave W ended at 5869.16. Wave X unfolded as an expanded flat structure. Up from wave W, wave ((a)) ended at 5940.79, and wave ((b)) pullback ended at 5829.53. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 6021.04 which completed wave X in higher degree. Index then resumed lower in wave Y. Down from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 5874.78. Near term, as far as pivot at 6099.65 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (W). This area comes at 5616 -5782 where support can be seen.
TVC:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
US500 We will conduct a top Down analysis for the US500. The US500 us currently In a large Bull run, it is forming a Series of Higher highs and higher lows on the Weekly Time frame. We are currently at the 100 Fib extensions Level taken from the 2020 Covid Low. Both Capital Inflows and Volume remain positive but at the highs right now seem to be decreasing but remains positive. Market has made a HH and is now testing the Market structure line that has been strong this entire bull run. Moving below to the Daily we can see clear weakness in the markets with multiple tests of the 50SMA and 10SMA now below the 50SMA. Whether this region holds is yet to be seen. We have a clear break of market structure from the bullish Wave that started on 6th of September with a retest of that took place on the 26th of December with a failure to break back above. Currently on the Daily TF, the markets are losing money with CMF below zero indicating distribution and OBV decreasing aswell. The break of market structure of this bullish Wave allows us to Identify retracement Zones where we can see 0.5 ot 0.618 level being of Importance. If we come down to the 4H we can see that currently the zone is range bound with ranging price action with the bottom of the range around the 5870 level, albeit with a succession of LH that have formed. The price in this Range has broken the 200SMA multiple times indicating market weakness in the intermediate Term. WIth price below the 20SMA we also see weakness. We have Resistance Trend Line that is forming with the LH on the 4H. On the 1H we remain firmly Bearish with immediate price action. This market seems like it has reached a top on the Weekly and needs resetting and the 4H and Daily price action confirm this with a break of the Large trend line. We are testing the Weekly Trend line that has been established For over 2 years. We are reactive and not predictive so we will wait to see what the market does, on breaks of the Range Zone the market will cool off on the Daily bullish Wave, but if this Daily bullish Cooldown breaks the Weekly Market structure we may be in for a large bear market this year.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by EliteMarketAnalysis
S&P 500 rangeThe S&P 500 Index has been ranging sideways since the US Election gap up on November 6th 2024. SPX support is by the October 2024 high 5850 area. Resistance is by the 6050 zone, even though there was an attempt to hit 6100 in the beginning of December before the FOMC rate cut and government shutdown fear drop on December 18th. Trading a range simplifies long and short entries and exits. However, it only works while the trading range continues. If there's a breakout or breakdown then this range will be invalidated. For the time being, my trade idea is straightforward on SPX. Go long at 5850 and go short at 6050. I think the market is in wait and see mode until Mega Cap earnings in a few weeks. A note of caution, options data is currently extremely bearish through the end of this month. Mega Cap earnings dates: 1/28 MSFT 4:05pm GOOG 4:05pm 1/29 TSLA 4:05 1/30 AMZN 4pm META 4:05pm AAPL 4:30pm SPX options data: 1/10 expiry Put Volume Total 152,200 Call Volume Total 69,422 Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.19 Put Open Interest Total 425,831 Call Open Interest Total 108,857 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.91 1/17 expiry Put Volume Total 129,140 Call Volume Total 97,195 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.33 Put Open Interest Total 1,917,625 Call Open Interest Total 1,013,708 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.89 1/24 expiry Put Volume Total 11,864 Call Volume Total 8,911 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.33 Put Open Interest Total 156,526 Call Open Interest Total 46,537 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.36 1/31 expiry Put Volume Total 36,487 Call Volume Total 12,299 Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.97 Put Open Interest Total 449,738 Call Open Interest Total 116,092 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.87
CBOE:SPX
by Options360