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SP500: Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025 The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, and other major indices are poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price lows from April 7, 2025, and possibly lower (S&P 500: ~4,802.20, Dow Jones: ~36,611.78, Nikkei: ~30,340.50). This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and pervasive bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy · The rally in indices on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism surrounding a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (a 90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence may be waning due to a lack of tangible progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: Recent reports highlight conflicting statements from the Trump administration, with earlier promises of new trade deals (e.g., a U.K. deal on May 8) followed by uncertainty. A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks yield no positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates rhetoric (e.g., reinstating higher tariffs), markets could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 15% drop in the S&P 500. · Trade war fears disproportionately impact export-heavy indices like the Nikkei, which is sensitive to yen appreciation and U.S.-China tensions, and the Dow Jones, with its significant exposure to multinational corporations. A breakdown in negotiations could drive indices toward the April 7 lows as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data · CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, reported inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. While initially viewed as positive, markets may have anticipated an even lower figure to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. The modest S&P 500 gain (+0.7%) and Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggest investor skepticism about further inflation cooling. · Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is a pivotal event. If the PPI indicates persistent wholesale inflation—potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures—it could signal rising consumer prices ahead, diminishing hopes for Fed policy easing and triggering a sell-off. A higher-than-expected PPI could echo the market’s reaction to mixed economic data in early April, when GDP contraction fears pushed indices lower. · Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, 2025, likely showed continued weakness (April’s reading was 52.2, a multi-year low). If the May figure, reported yesterday, declined further, it could amplify concerns about reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting corporate earnings and pushing indices downward. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy · On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted heightened economic risks, citing “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies. Markets are pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first cut expected in July. · Trigger for May 15: If today’s PPI data or other economic indicators (e.g., Initial Jobless Claims, also due at 8:30 AM ET) point to persistent inflation or economic weakness, expectations for rate cuts could fade, increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring equity valuations. This scenario would mirror April 7, when recession fears and tariff impacts drove the S&P 500 below 5,000. 2. Technical Analysis · The initial impulse move saw a decline of approximately -21.87%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude (marked on the chart). Currently, markets are aligned for a simultaneous decline across asset classes: oil, cryptocurrencies, and major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others. · Previous analysis concluded that this is a correction preceding a broader decline in indices, driven by trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and U.S. economic indicators. I believe a recession is already underway. Price Targets for S&P 500 Decline: ➖ Retest of the April 7, 2025, low: $4,803.00 ➖ Secondary target: $4,716.00 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors 3.1. Fragile Optimism Post-Rally · The S&P 500’s 22% rally from April lows and the Dow’s 15% recovery were driven by trade truce optimism and strength in technology stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Palantir). However, Bloomberg reported on May 14, 2025, that Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade war risks and fears of an economic slowdown. This fragility could lead to profit-taking today if negative news emerges. · The Dow’s weakness on May 14 (down 0.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain) highlights vulnerabilities in specific sectors (e.g., healthcare following UnitedHealth’s 18% drop), which could spread to broader markets. 3.2. Global Market Correlation · Asian markets, including the Nikkei, exhibited mixed performance on May 14, with China’s CSI 300 up slightly (+0.15%) and India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%. If Asian markets open lower on May 15 due to overnight U.S. declines or trade-related news, it could create a feedback loop, intensifying global selling pressure. 4. Mini Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A higher-than-expected PPI could signal persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and triggering a sell-off. Consensus anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could be bearish. Trade Talk Updates: Negative commentary from U.S. or Chinese officials (e.g., no deal reached in Geneva) could reignite trade war fears, mirroring the April 7 sell-off. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): An unexpected rise in claims (e.g., above 220,000 compared to the prior fmadd211,000) could signal labor market weakness, amplifying recession fears. 4.2. Global Scenario for S&P 500 · I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. · There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: 4.3. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel
VShort
by SergioRichi
SPX500 Hits Major Supply Zone – Will the Bears Take Over?The S&P 500 (SPX500) just tapped a significant supply zone between 5945–5952, a key level where previous selling pressure led to strong bearish moves. Price is currently showing signs of exhaustion at the top of this zone on the 4H timeframe, and we may be witnessing a potential reversal setup. Key Levels: Supply Zone (Resistance): 5945 – 5952 Mid-Support: 5478 Demand Zone (Strong Support): 4916 – 4920 Possible Scenarios: 1. Rejection from the supply zone could trigger a pullback to 5478, and if that breaks, the next bearish target would be the demand zone at 4916. 2. If the bulls break and close above 5952 with strong momentum, we might see new highs, but volume confirmation is needed. Watch for: Bearish candlestick patterns in the supply zone Reversal confirmation with RSI or MACD divergence Volume drop on the breakout attempt Red Arrows Mark: High-probability downside targets in case of reversal. With key economic events marked on the chart (highlighted on May 22), volatility is expected. A fakeout or whipsaw move could be in play—stay cautious! Are you bullish or bearish on SPX500? Drop your thoughts below and don’t forget to like and follow for more institutional-level analysis! #SPX500 #S&P500 #LuxAlgo #SupplyDemand #TradingView #Forex #Stocks #PriceAction #SmartMoney #TechnicalAnalysis #SP500Analysis
FShort
by FrankFx14
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 16 May 2025 - S&P 500 broke the resistance level 5900.00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 6100.00 S&P 500 index recently broke the resistance level 5900.00, the former support from January and February. The breakout of the resistance level 5900.00 should accelerate the active short-term impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of April. S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6100.00, which reversed the price multiple times from December to March, as can be seen below.
SLong
by FxProGlobal
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by CMATechnologies
Could the US500 be setting up for a bounce?Hello, The US500 is trading near the trend line, a key area where technical investors will be looking for a bounce back. While the current market remains choppy due to tariffs from the US president, technical analysis does offer us key areas where we can look for entries going forward. What is certain is that this is not the time to panic and sell all your held positions. As always, during moments like these composure + a clear plan are your best line of defence. Probabilistic thinking as well can go a long way in identifying great opportunities. We’re all dealing with known and unknown variables now, and there’s no shame in saying, "I don’t know." For me I see opportunities in the S&P especially because the news is already out. Additionally, we are coming into earnings season when the market is at the bottom. Companies that show resilience will attract early investors and the index will bounce back. So please keep your long-term view. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by thesharkke
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index showed a steady upward trend during this week's trading session, successfully reaching a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5955. However, it's important to note the significant downward trend due to letter completion, which could lead to a decline toward the Mean Support level of 5828. Additionally, there is a possibility of further drops to the Mean Support level of 5661. On the other hand, the index may continue to rise from its current level, potentially advancing toward the Inner Currency Rally target set at 6073.
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by TradeSelecter
SPX 500 Downtrend MovementGreetings Traders this is my analysis on SPX500 and it is Short 📊 Overview: Current price: 5,901 (in the opening zone of the short position). The analysis points to a short strategy — the author predicts a price decline with the opening of a position between 6.009 and 6.023, aiming for 5.394–5.392. 🟩 Zone of resistance (Resistance level): Major resistance level: 6,153.39 Price has reacted at that level in the past and has previously been rejected, making it a strong psychological and technical barrier. 🟨 Entry and Expectation Zone: Open Position zone: 6.009–6.023 (brown zone) Expected reaction: short signal, if the price is likely to bounce off the resistance and head lower "First Top" and "Breakout" formations are observed, which is often a sign of a subsequent decline 🔻 Anticipated correction: Target zone: 5.394–5.392 It is the previous levels of consolidation and the possible target of a short position An arrow is shown predicting a price drop from the current level 🔴 Support Zone (Support Level): Main support: 5,091.52 If the price breaks through the target level, it can even go down to this support 🧠 Technical elements: Elliott Wave marks the completion of the impulse and corrective phase, suggesting the end of the upward wave Impulsive movement and a drop in price indicate the possibility that the current correction will end and the price will move downwards again A possible support area has already been tested, but it may be active again 🧩 Conclusion: Strategy: short entry at ~6,010–6,020 Stop loss should be above 6,153 (above strong resistance) Target: 5,394 (possible continuation of downward trend) The plan is based on price action analysis, waves and recognition of key zones Dear Traders like,comment let me know what do you think?
SShort
by Zaks_ForexRules
S&P 500: Consolidating & forming bull flag on support trendlineSo, we all know that the market is taking a breather, and the past week has been mostly flat (kind of). There have been plenty of headlines, some good, some bad. Most notably, the news about the Moody's US credit downgrade. I woke up one morning, took a look at LinkedIn and saw all the CFA-certified investing experts expecting a massive game-changing moment, potentially a market crash. Except, the market hasn't responded so negatively. In fact, I'd say that while long-term yields have been rising, the market has been doing its own thing . For instance, taking a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 paints a different picture of the doom and gloom that I've been hearing ALL weekend and ALL week long. As you can see, the index is currently sitting on the daily support trendline which goes back to the 7th April low. On that trendline, taking a closer look, it seems the flat price action has been forming a bull flag. It's quite narrow and tight. But it certainly is a fine-looking bull flag. And a break above that would take the S&P 500 even higher. This would also likely have a positive effect on other indices. Furthermore, it might be worth keeping an eye on the big S&P 500 stocks that are high-beta and like to follow the market. So, to my point about how the market has been doing its own thing...seems that the Moody's downgrade could have possibly been already priced-in. I could be wrong, of course, as markets are still quite volatile and fragile to any sort of macro and global developments about trade and conflicts around the world. Thank you for reading. Note: not financial advice
SLong
by michaeldobski
Has the S&P 500 rally ended?The US stock indices saw a noticeable drop in recent trading sessions, as markets wait for President Donald Trump’s new tax plan and its implications for US debt. The S&P 500 had surged more than 23% since April, but the rally seems to have ended from a technical point of view, reflecting rising concerns about the US economy. A bearish divergence appeared while prices were making higher highs, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) was making lower highs. This is a negative signal, and it played out clearly, pushing the index down to a new low. This suggests that bearish momentum is still strong. What’s the possible next move? Any current rise in the market may just be a temporary correction in a larger downtrend. A key resistance level for the S&P 500 is 5,937.55, which is 78% of the recent move based on Fibonacci retracement. The price could react negatively there, either with a small pullback or by continuing the downward trend toward 5,850.23. However, if the price rises above 5,971.53 and closes above it on the daily chart, the negative outlook would be invalidated, and it could signal the beginning of a new upward trend.
C
by CFI
S&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit RatingS&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit Rating On Friday, 16 May, after markets had closed, Moody’s Ratings announced a downgrade of the long-term sovereign credit rating of the United States from the highest level of Aaa to Aa1. The key reasons cited by Moody’s were the rising national debt and interest payments, as well as expectations of a further increase in the budget deficit. Notably: → The downgrade was hardly a surprise. A similar move was made by Standard & Poor’s back in 2011, while Fitch Ratings followed suit in August 2023. → The official response may be seen as reassuring for market participants. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down concerns about the downgrade in an interview with NBC News, calling credit ratings “lagging indicators” and placing the blame on the previous administration. → Despite the downgrade, Moody’s acknowledged the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency and stated that the United States “retains exceptional credit strengths, such as the size, resilience, and dynamism of its economy.” Stock Market Reaction The announcement triggered a negative market reaction, reflected in falling prices during Monday morning’s opening session. E-mini S&P 500 futures (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) retreated, as indicated by the arrow on the chart, pulling back from the highs reached by Friday’s close. Last week, we pointed out signs of slowing momentum in the S&P 500 rally. Could the decline continue further? Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart By drawing lines A, B, and C through the May rally peaks, we can observe a gradual flattening of the slope — suggesting that the bulls are losing momentum and confidence. The price is currently trading between local lines C and C1, but it is reasonable to assume that the opening of the US session may bring renewed bearish pressure — potentially pushing the price lower, towards the bottom boundary of the broader upward channel (marked in blue). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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by FXOpen
Has this strategy works for you ?I was quite surprised when one of my followers shared that buying into SPX is boring and has nothing much worthy of bragging rights in social media. Wait, you mean you are buying or selling just because you want to brag? For ego sake ? Value at ?????? Ok, so I am old school and are unlikely to notice stocks like POPMART or Nvidia for that matter. Some of my friends are just busy trading on small time frame of 1-5 mins daily on these stocks, it requires skills, eye power and definitely not for me. If you had invested in SPX when I mentioned it here , here or here When you are clear why you are buying and have the conviction that it will continue to pay you handsomely in the long term, then you have lesser headache of searching for quality companies like UNH which plunge so much lately ! Really, you are OK with it after the death of one CEO and then the next is resigning and then getting sued for fraud. Market first react to it be it truth or rumours and then self correct later, that is the brutal and hard to accept for many. Consider the SPX index like a basket of different fruits that yield you good benefits in the long term. The probability of ALL these stocks or majority falling 10% within a day is RARE except 9th April (thanks to President Trump) but if you ignore that and took that opportunity to DCA, you are well rewarded as data shown. So now, the market is again haunting you that another selldown is coming - downgrade of US AA1 rating by Moody . Good, if it comes down another 5-10% , then it is another great opportunity to buy more at cheaper price. The reasons many are afraid to go LONG is because they let the media scared the hell out of them. Bro, that is how media make their money - viewership. News must be sensational, ya ? The bloodier, creating more fear, uncertainty , the better and the more people hooked on reading, forwarding and commenting on it. So, perhaps the market will react to this negative news and come down and close the gap around 5666 price level. That would be nice to buy more. Be patient and wait for the green dotted bullish trend line be broken down first. Of course, maybe the Gen Z finds this strategy too slow, giving peanut returns year on year and prefer to long crypto where overnight millionaires are made and they were sold that dream, fast and furious. Do what suits you but as always, know what you are doing and protect yourself - NEVER EVER borrow to invest/trade, NEVER EVER go on MARGIN no matter how smart/confident you are on the trade, always use a Stop LOSS.
SLong
by dchua1969