$SPX key level test for a medium-term direction SP:SPX is reaching the 5780 level which was previously strong downside resistance and now is a strong upside resistance.
SPX trade ideas
S&P500 This is the buy opportunity of the year for a 7000 TargetThe S&P500 index (SPX) is in the process of posting its 2nd straight green 1W candle, following a streak of 4 red weeks since the February 17 peak. That streaκ was technically the Bearish Leg of the 1.5-year Channel Up and as you can see, it made a direct contact with its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
As the same time, the 1W RSI almost touched the 40.00 Support that priced the October 23 2023 Low, which was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The similarities don't stop there as both Bearish Legs had approximately a -10.97% decline, the strongest within that time-frame.
The Bullish Leg that followed that bottom initially peaked on a +28.85% rise, almost touching the 2.236 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the symmetry holds between the Bullish Legs as well, we can be expecting the index to start the new Bullish Leg now and target 7000 by the end of the year, which is marginally below both the 2.236 Fib ext and a potential +28.85% rise.
This may indeed be the best buy opportunity for 2025.
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US500 Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,754.53.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,665.70 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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S&P 500: The Correction Is Not Over Yet – Targets Around 5000At the moment, the S&P 500 is holding relatively stable, but I believe the current decline is just part of a larger correction following decades of growth.
Right now, the index is retracing to the 50% pullback area (marked on the chart), which aligns with a typical retest before a potential continuation of the downward move. In this zone, a manipulation is likely, after which the decline may resume.
An additional confirmation of this scenario is the unfilled gap below, which remains uncovered. Historically, the market tends to close such gaps. Moreover, there are untested price levels lower on the chart, suggesting a high probability of further downside movement, with targets around 5000 points.
I will keep monitoring the situation and update my outlook as new data emerges.
Bullish momentum to extend?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 5,671.90
1st Support: 5,599.90
1st Resistance: 5,843.10
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Bullish S&P500 I am going to be looking for longs this new quarter.
Seasonal Tendacies are looking bullish as well
#SPX - 25 MarHuge run up in #SPX after a gap up. Strongly bullish for further upside.
Any dips is a buying opportunity. Looking at PZ to hold for another leg higher, or if it breaks, look at 5700 for a long up to 5880 then 6000.
Hourly Sell DivergenceThere was supposed to be less tariffs, but by the close, it's more tariffs not less. The charts don't lie like politicians often do.
SP500 - Long Strategy with FED effectI think that FED can give a pump to SP500, probably we will go directly to first 2 target than we can have a retest of support area. In any case there is a volume pressure under this price level so is aspected a long wave.
S&P 500 ,,, End of correctionUptrend
Based on my strategy, the corrective wave appears to have terminated with today's daily candle. Notably, a descending trend line and a major level have been broken. If today's daily candle had no upper shadow, I would consider taking buying positions.
SPX us500The index has a target price range of 5991, there is a possibility of going up from this moment, but another possibility is that the range of 5520 will be touched and then it will move up.
[W] SP500 - 24.3.2025This has been an unusually disturbing prediction that I have ever made, and yet so long expected. It's also probably for the first time, I do it on a weekly chart! The huge question mark here, is how FED will react to stagflation turning into a recession, and to recession with a looming threat to progress further. At some point, they might be tempted to act with low rate and EQ, which will further increase already high Gini index and might eventually cause defaults on loans and mortages. Thus, causing a crisis not seen since 2008. The current president Donald Trump might want to distract from the increasingly worsening domestic situation by seeking and external (and internal) enemy, further strengthening his grip on power. While the entire situation might provide a temporary boost to the defense sector alongside with utilities, foreign capital and trade will likely diminish. Unlike the 2008 crisis that was caused predominantly by internal factors, this case might be marked by geopolitical isolation which threatens to leave a much deeper scar.
Stock Market Hits Extreme Oversold Levels — Rebound Already ...Trump tariffs and other geopolitical events triggered a market correction.
But in the bigger picture, this noise means very little.
Mathematical models and indicators are pointing to extreme oversold levels.
If a recession hasn't started yet — this could be a great opportunity.
Even if it has already begun, strong bounces from current levels are possible across many stocks.
In fact, some of those bounces are already happening — and we can see that across multiple instruments.
Personally, I picked up a few quantum tech tickers like IONQ, which is already up +40%, and added a bit of NVDA.
Holding for now.
SPX500 24/3/2025 Sideways to up pullback phase
Last Friday's candlestick closed as a bull bar near its high. The market opened lower but lacked follow-through selling and traded sideways to up for the rest of the day.
In our last report, we said that traders would see if the bears could create a strong bear bar, or if the market would open lower but lack follow-through selling, like Thursday.
The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback.
The pullback currently has more bull bars vs bear bars with no follow-through selling. The bulls are stronger.
The next targets for the bulls are the 20-day EMA, 200-day EMA or the January 13 low.
The market has formed 3 pushes up (including today's gap up) with the first two legs being the Mar 17 and Mar 19 high.
If there is a pullback, the bulls want at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the current leg high (Mar 24).
The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase.
The strong move down slightly favor the first pullback to be minor and not lead to a reversal up.
They were not able to create follow-through selling on Mar 18 and Mar 21.
They must create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to increase the odds of another leg down.
The prior climactic selloff and parabolic wedge increase the odds of a pullback which is underway.
Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the 20-day and the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down AFTER the pullback phase increase.
For now, the buying pressure is stronger than the selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling).
Odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up pullback phase.
Pre-dump Stop Hunt Seems Likely HereMy previous forecast into the high of the rally was for a capitulation from the high, no major retracement in the drop and then once we broke the low - slam to 5500.
This trade went well in the first stages. Top where it was expected. Sell off in the style expected. New low as expected - but there has yet to be a big follow through.
This failed follow through (even although we are still sitting at the lows right now) makes me worry about the different trap variants of the break I expect.
Here's the setup I am looking at. It's a bullish butterfly-like pattern off the high.
I say butterfly-like because it doesn't perfectly fit the rules. C is a new high, for one. But I find this general M type of shape is useful for spotting lows or breaks. I tend to bracket all these things under a "butterfly". I know it's a misterm as per the books, but it serves the purpose I am using it for.
Three main things can happen off a butterfly decision. One is the 1.61 breaks and we slam to 2.20. This was the OG forecast of 5500. This is the rarer of the outcomes but it happens so fast there's not time to deal with it - which is why I planned and positioned for this into the rally high.
Second thing that can happen it a low. Butterfly can work. All can be well with the world. For a few reasons I don't think that's happening but it's a risk to be aware of. This could be a low.
Finally, we have the dead cat and break pattern - the one that is the primary plan for now if we make the bounce.
Here's an example of one of those.
Notice how this trades under the support and then puts in a series of small spike out candles - then it makes the bull trap. Stalls a while and then the next break is the actionable one.
Look at this little zone - we game this zone on both sides before the move.
These look similar.
If the break does not come now I think we'll see a bull trap atypical to the previous ones in that is moderately breaks the lower highs we've seen in all the previous rallies. Giving bears good reason to puke their positions and bulls good reason to think the low is in. Barcode there for a while and then setup the bigger trade.
Ideally here I'd like to make a little money in the rally. Use this to bankroll my speculative OTM puts.
Breaks lower are liable to cause an instant pivot to the plan for the run away break - but this bull trap move would be far more befitting of a pre-crash move I think.
It really does feel a little too easy right now. Would be so many fewer bears if we made that little spike and stuck stubbornly at the high of it for a while.
I've been hitting every rally in SPX since 6150. Done a lot of offloading of my positions yesterday and anything I am holding I have hedged with 580 calls.
We may be very close, within months, of a real break - but we might have a big distraction rally to come first.
No one has called me names for being a bear of late ... concerning. A good bounce would fix that.
US 500 Index – A Deeper Rally or Retreat?The US 500 rallied 0.8% last week to close at 5666 and in doing so managed to lock in its first up week since early February. The bounce also brought some joy to those dip buyers that had to endure watching the index move into correction territory (10% drop from 6144 high) the previous week when it touched a 6-month low at 5505 on March 13th.
Looking forward, it is probably still way too early to say that the selling and rotation away from US stocks into other global indices is over, although what we can say is that traders have taken a pause for reflection ahead of what could be a volatile finish to the end of the first quarter of 2025. Afterall, sentiment towards stocks in the US 500, especially the technology sector, remains fragile.
In the week ahead traders are likely to be focused on the finer details of President Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs, which are due to hit all countries, including long-time US allies, on April 2nd. The breadth of these tariffs and the extent of retaliatory measures, particularly from China and the EU, are likely to have knock on implications for US economic growth, inflation and consumer confidence (see below) , all of which are key factors that may impact future corporate earnings and the direction of the US 500 across the week.
Economic Data:
Monday: 1345 GMT US Preliminary PMI Surveys
Tuesday: 1400 GMT US Consumer Confidence
Friday: 1230 GMT US PCE Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
Solid Footing:
The US 500 has opened the week on a more solid footing after a weekend report on Bloomberg suggested President Trump’s wave of tariffs are to be more targeted than the all-out assault he has touted on social media over the last few weeks.
However, this is yet to be confirmed, and while not the worst-case scenario, it would still be an escalation of the current trade wars and may still result in retaliatory measures from those countries that are hit the hardest. It could also mean traders need to be on Trump social media watch again in the early part of this week.
Technical Update: A Question of Fibonacci Retracements
The US 500 index encountered an aggressive sell-off of 10.4% from the February 2025 all-time high at 6144 to its March low of 5505, from which attempts to bounce have materialised.
This low was important from a technical perspective because the sell off tested a possible support level, marked by a Fibonacci retracement. In the case of the US 500 index, it was the 50% level of the April 2024 to February 2025 advance which stands at 5533 (see chart above).
Using Fibonacci Retracements:
Fibonacci retracements are useful as they can highlight potential support levels when any price weakness is seen and potential resistance levels when any price strength is seen.
Closing breaks below retracement support or above retracement resistance can suggest the possibility of a more extended price move in the direction of the break.
We recently published a report on how to use Fibonacci retracements in greater detail, so please take a look at our timeline to read this.
Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels Offering Any Insight into Recent US 500 Index Moves?
Having already rallied following tests of the 5533 retracement level, this has been confirmed as a support focus moving forward. While closing breaks are not a guarantee of further price declines, with much still dependent on future price trends and sentiment across the trading week, it may well be closes below this level that expose the potential for deeper declines.
If this were to happen, downside potential may then shift towards retracement support at the 61.8% level, which stands at 5389 as you can see on the chart above.
Fibonacci Resistance Focus:
We can also run Fibonacci retracements on the February to March phase of weakness to provide potential resistance levels to focus on in case there is an extension of the recent rally. The 38.2% retracement of the February to March decline stands at 5750 and this is a level that might need to be monitored.
If this 5750 level were to be broken on a closing basis, it may be possible to see a more extended phase of price strength which could could skew the focus for traders towards resistance at 5825, which is the higher 50% retracement level, may be even 5900, which is the 61.8% retracement.
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S&P500 INTRADAY oversold bounce back capped at 5777S&P500 INTRADAY oversold bounce back capped at 5777
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5777
Resistance Level 2: 5844
Resistance Level 3: 5872-5920
Support Level 1: 5604
Support Level 2: 5539
Support Level 3: 5500
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S&P 500 Setting Up for a Breakout – But Not Before One More TrapAs I’ve said before, the FOREXCOM:SPX500 is a key reference for my crypto trading . That’s why I sat down and took a closer look at the chart – and I’m now ready to place a limit order , based on what I’m seeing.
I believe we’re still in a correction phase , and it’s far from over . However, I think it’s realistic that we’ll see a move toward $5,832 next week . Before that happens, I expect either today’s Monday Low or next week’s Previous Weekly Low to get swept, ideally triggering a dip into the 12-hour Fair Value Gap just below.
That’s where I see my entry zone forming. It’s also the exact area where Wave B overshoots the starting point of Wave ABC, making it a clean Flat correction pattern, with Wave C completing to the downside before we get a solid move upward.
I’m setting my stop-loss below the $5,500 low. If this setup plays out, I expect the S&P to push toward $5,832 , and after that, I’m anticipating a larger correction that could take the index back down to $5,500 or even $5,450 over the coming weeks.
Timing remains unclear for that move after, but the structure is here , and I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
The bull and bear caseStill leaning bearish, but a tag of 5750 is likely first before any pullback. After open I'm looking for a reversal. Good luck!
Considering Long Positions for S&P 500 Amid Market Uncertainty
- Key Insights: Though the S&P 500 is in a corrective phase, signs of potential
bullish reversals present opportunities for long positions. Monitor economic
reports and geopolitical events closely, as these are likely to influence
market movements.
- Price Targets: Next week, we suggest the following targets:
- T1: 5700
- T2: 5750
- Stop Levels:
- S1: 5600
- S2: 5582
- Recent Performance: The S&P 500 concluded the week marginally above its
starting point, revealing market volatility and potential for both upward
and downward adjustments. Indicators show both consolidation and
opportunities for a rebound.
- Expert Analysis: Despite feeling overvalued, analysts are observing mixed
signals with both bearish and bullish possibilities. There's a heightened
focus on inflation indicators and central bank policies, crucial for future
market direction, alongside a performance gap favoring value stocks.
- News Impact: Recent tech sector sell-offs, especially in semiconductors and
Tesla, suggest challenges face growth sectors. Geopolitical factors,
including recently announced tariffs by President Trump, could further
heighten volatility. Upcoming consumer confidence and GDP revisions are key
reports to watch, possibly influencing next week's market tone.
Looking for a minimum of ES 5850In the days to come our initial pattern off the recent has the high probability to get into the 5850 area.
Here I will be looking for a pullback.
If this pullback can be viewed as corrective in it's structure then I expect the subdivisions and pathway on my ES4Hr chart should follow suit. However, if the pullback turns out to be impulsive, I will be looking for follow through for either Minor B having completed early, or the alternate wave (iv). If that sort of price action were to materialize, it's Friday's low of 5651.25 that must support any drop if we're to continue to subdivide higher and have this minor B take more time.
S&P nearing the 38% retracement and flag top! Intraday Update: The S&P futures are up today following possible tariff news being factored in from some weekend headlines about "targeted reciprocal tariffs" for April 2nd, which is allowing for the S&P to near the 38% retracement which would be the top of the beer flag pattern and setup.
