SPX trade ideas
Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) seasonal strategists and swing tradersThrift Savings Plan (TSP) swing traders and seasonal swingers update AMEX:RSP SP:SPX AMEX:SPY AMEX:VOO : it is very tempting to call this the local bottom, but I caution against making that assumption just yet. We aren't trying to catch falling knives. Instead, we're riding the momentum. Let's look at previous examples, in which the assumption was that we bottomed, highlighted in boxes. What would I like to see before jumping back into C-Fund? S&P 500 stocks above the 200-day moving average, staying above 50%. Next, I'd look for the equal weighted S&P 500 ETF AMEX:RSP to make a higher low, which should also show up on the weighted S&P 500.
S&P500 The Week Ahead 24th March '25S&P500 bearish & oversold, the key trading level is at 5766
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the course of this week's trading session, the S&P 500 achieved the designated target for the Inner Index Rally at 5576, which occurred midweek. This target was accompanied by considerable volatility, ultimately hindering upward movement. On the week's final trading day, the index experienced a notable decline, resulting in a significant drop that reached our critical target, Mean Support, at 5603.
Consequently, the index is now poised to target a retest of the Inner Index Rally level 5712, with a subsequent potential target identified at the Mean Resistance level 5840. It is essential to consider that upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target of 5712, a decrease in the current price level is anticipated, which may lead to a retest of the Mean Support at 5601. Furthermore, an extended decline is possible to revisit the completed Outer Index Dip at 5520 before the resumption of an upward rally.
SPX Long Term Levels - Jinny Gann FanzJinny Gann Fan Levels are on the Chart possible Trendlines my WAY.
Jinny Gann Fan/Horizontal Lines Works as Support / Resistance.
Important levels for the Big Cycle on the chart.
Support Levels:4926 - 4863 - 4804.88
Resistance Levels :5055 - 5175
Rest of levels on chart ;)
Trade Wisely.
What Do the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s Charts Say?Let's take a look at charts for the S&P 500 SP:SPX S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index NASDAQ:IXIC to see where the market might be heading.
The S&P 500’s Technical Picture
Take a look at the S&P 500’s chart going back to early January:
Check out the market action from last Friday (March 14) -- a day when New York Stock Exchange winners beat losers by roughly 16 to 3.
Advancing volume took a commanding 90.1% share of composite NYSE-listed trade, and an almost as impressive 80.8% share of composite Nasdaq-listed activity.
However, aggregate trade nonetheless dropped 3.1% on a day-over-day basis across NYSE-domiciled names and 0.8% for Nasdaq-listed ones.
In other words, there was less conviction in last Friday's rally than was visible in any of the recent down days that led to that session.
As a matter of fact, that Friday was the quietest trading day for S&P 500 stocks since Feb. 20 -- more than three weeks earlier. Hence, we could probably not call Friday’s rally a change in trend.
Then came the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary-policy statement and press conference this past Wednesday (March 19).
The Fed left rates unchanged, but its “dot plot” reiterated that the central bank still expects to cut rates by 50 basis points this year – news that helped send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up more than 1% each.
Would technical analysis have told us to expect this?
Well, readers will note that the chart above shows a so-called “double top” pattern of bearish reversal from early January through late February (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” in the red boxes above.
Next, the S&P saw what we call "Day One" of the bearish change in trend on Feb. 21, marked with an orange box in the chart above.
A “Day One” isn’t necessarily the first day of a trend change. Instead, it’s merely the first day of a trend change that occurs broadly and on sharply increased trading volume.
The S&P 500’s “Day One” above was followed by a so-called "Confirmation Day" on Feb. 27.
A “Confirmation Day” is a session that confirms a trend change. It can come anywhere from two days to several days after the Day One.
However, a Confirmation Day must represent a broad move and come on increased trading volume -- and there’s also a catch. There must be a pause in between the Day One and the Confirmation Day.
This suggests that portfolio managers took some time, thought about what they were doing and then continued to either increase or decrease exposure depending on the Confirmation Day’s pattern (up or down).
Without this pause, what we would have is one long move that doesn’t confirm anything technically.
In the above chart, all of what we saw was a spot-on sign of a double-top pattern.
But next came a so-called "Outside Day" on March 3 -- a one-day pattern that hinted at increased volatility to come.
An Outside Day occurs when the trading range of a given day completely envelopes the day prior and the open and close of said day also encompass the open and close of the day prior. This one-day pattern often signals a coming period of increased volatility.
Next, the S&P 500 saw a so-called "faux Day One” last Friday, March 14. That could have kicked off a bullish change in trend, but the S&P 500 rose on light trading volume.
Additionally, the SPX never made a serious run at retaking its 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a red upwardly sloping line above).
Technical analysis won’t tell us much about the S&P 500 (or the Nasdaq Composite, for that matter) as long as those indexes trade below their 200-day SMAs. That often keeps portfolio managers on the sidelines.
In fact, much of the swing crowd tones down their activity as well as long as the major indices don’t even make a run at their respective 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (or “EMAs,” denoted by the green line above).
Also note that even on the down day of March 18, the S&P 500’s trading volume (marked with gray bars in the chart above) continued to tail off a bit, indicating increasing uncertainty.
That said, readers will see a slight uptick in trading volume for this past Wednesday (Fed Day). The S&P 500 was up nicely that day, and got off to a good start on Thursday (March 20) as well.
Alone, that’s not enough to christen a new "Day One" of a bullish trend reversal, partly because the Nasdaq Composite was not as active (as readers will see below).
Typically, Wall Street would like to see both major indexes up on sharply increased trading volume to declare a “Day One” bullish reversal. The SPX and Nasdaq have come very close to allowing us to do that, but don’t appear to be there yet.
Technical Analysis for the Nasdaq Composite Index
Next, let’s look at the Nasdaq Composite’s chart going back to early December:
The Nasdaq appears more challenged than the S&P 500 at this time, but both are close to giving us the first step of what the bulls need to see.
As with the SPX, the Nasdaq Composite saw a “double-top” bearish pattern in December and January (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” above).
The index then saw a “Day One” and a “Confirmation Day” in late February, followed by an “Outside Day” on March 3.
It then saw an “Up Day” on March 19, although on lower trading volume. And as with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite has yet to retake its 200-day SMA (the upwardly sloping red line in the chart above).
The Bottom Line
Add it all up and the major US equity indices look like they remain in a downtrend.
We still need to see a "Day One” move to the upside, then a pause and then a "Confirmation Day."
That could take up to a week, but to rush into things without confirmation is closer to gambling than it is to trading.
Again, the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most important item to watch on these charts. That's where large flows of capital will come from … if portfolio managers decide to increase their overall long-side exposure.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in the securities mentioned at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.
Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
S&P500 INTRADAY Bearish oversold bounce back Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5714
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5872-5920
Support Level 1: 5500
Support Level 2: 5387
Support Level 3: 5254
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SP500Bearish ABCD is forming which shows that if this patteren b point is break then sellstop order will be execute and stoploss will be point c and TP is at D Point . This point is very crucial due to lot of conflunces here so if sustain this point it will be a potential reversal point looking for long open position
The Election Was Support. Has it Become Resistance?Last year’s presidential election was a catalyst for stocks. Today’s idea considers its potentially shifting impact on sentiment.
The first pattern on today’s S&P 500 chart is the range between 5597 and 5783. Those prices are the low of November 4 and the high of November 5, the Monday and Tuesday of election week.
On January 13, SPX pulled back to find support at the top of the range. That bounce seemed to reflect ongoing optimism about the coming administration. (Inauguration was exactly a week later.)
The index remained above that zone through early March before sliding below it. Prices have now rebounded but appear to be stalling at the bottom of the price range. Does that show a newer anxiety about policy?
Next, Wilder’s relative strength index (RSI) made lower highs from early December -- despite SPX making incrementally higher highs. That kind of bearish divergence may be consistent with a longer-term trend fading.
Third, SPX is under its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Staying here may confirm a break of its longer-term uptrend.
Finally, the 50-day SMA recently crossed below 100-day SMA. Both are falling. That may also suggest prices have stopped rising.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SPX500 2nd Leg Down? 21 Mar 2025
Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bull bar in its lower half with a long tail above.
In yesterday's report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 19) high followed by a breakout above. Or if the retest would lack follow-through buying, stalling around or slightly above yesterday's high area.
The market formed a retest of the March 19 high, but stalled and formed a lower high.
We said the move while strong, likely was simply a bull leg and a buy vacuum test of the trading range high. If true, sellers would emerge near the trading range high, which was the case. (Please refer to the tagged post)
The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback.
The pullback is currently underway but has a lot of overlapping candlesticks. The bulls are not yet as strong as they hope to be.
They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of testing the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low.
For today, the market may open lower today. If the market continues down, they hope the March 18 low will act as support, forming a small double bottom bull flag.
The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase.
The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increase the odds that the first pullback (current pullback) would be minor and not lead to a reversal up.
They hope the leg to retest the March 13 low will begin soon. They must create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to increase the odds of another leg down.
The prior climactic selloff and parabolic wedge increase the odds of a pullback which is underway.
Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down AFTER the pullback phase increase.
So far, the pullback has a lot of overlapping candlesticks which indicates that the bulls are not yet as strong as they hope to be.
For now, traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar today.
Or will the market open lower but lack follow-through selling, like yesterday?
I will update again later today.
Bollinger Bands Pinch, Market Yawns… I Stay Ready Bollinger Bands Pinch, Market Yawns… I Stay Ready | SPX Analysis 21 Mar 2025
It’s Friday, the market’s half-asleep, and I’ve redrawn my trendlines more times than I’ve refreshed my tea.
The weekly chart (top left, if you're playing along at home) is shaping up to close with a tight little range bar, which basically tells us what we already knew: we're in a classic sideways smush. (technical term)
And yes—I've once again spent time repositioning the bull/bear boundary levels, only to find that my actual triggers haven't changed a bit. The Bollinger Band pinch just confirms the stallout. Nothing new. Nothing sexy. Just… waiting.
And honestly? I’m fine with that. Because Monday’s “don’t rush it” dodge saved me from getting trapped on the wrong side of a lazy bounce.
Still bearish. Still patient. Still on standby fora push towards 5600, where I’ll happily ring the register on a few bear swings.
---
There’s a special kind of frustration in watching a chart do absolutely nothing while you do absolutely everything to analyse it.
That’s where we are. SPX continues to compress, now sporting a tight little Bollinger pinch that confirms (again) that the market’s in full nap mode.
🟠 Weekly chart: Range bar. Narrow. Uneventful.
🟠 Boundary redrawing: Done. Re-done. And redone again.
🟠 Bull/Bear triggers: Still the same, above 5705 for bulls, below 5605 for bears.
I’ve adjusted my short-term channel view, tried to refine the angles, squinted at a few Fibonacci levels, and... nothing's really changed. .
What’s interesting, though, is that while all this noise is happening, the real setups are marinating. My bear swings are aging like fine wine, just waiting for a push toward 5600 so I can cash out a few tranches that’ve been overstaying their welcome.
And let’s not forget:
💥 The bull trigger still hasn’t fired.
💥 Monday’s Paddy's Day Party and bull entry swerve? Best decision of the week.
💥 No new entries unless levels break. No exceptions.
I’m not expecting a massive move today, though saying that probably jinxed it. If we get some surprise action late in the day, great. If not, I’ll be clicking into the weekend with my blood pressure blissfully normal and my trades still on track.
---
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? Jesse Livermore, one of history’s greatest traders, once said: "The real money is made in the waiting."
💡 The Lesson? The best trades don’t happen when you force them—they happen when you let them come to you.
I wouldn't be surprised for a capitulatory type of drop tomorrowAs we can see the trend line have held the US500/SPX/SPY price for so many times, we still couldn't break above it. In other word, it's acting as current overhead resistance ever since we broke down from this white line. We tried three times so far this week, 17th, 19th and the 20th, still couldn't manage to break above it. So if anything happens tomorrow, it would be a big red candle to tomorrow with gigantic volume since it is going to be the "Quad Witching" Day.
When will the "True Bounce" be happening? I would say, the bounce back window should starts as early as next week if we see capitulation tomorrow.
MARKET ALERT: Sound the AlarmOver the past few years as price has reached major potential turning points in the market I have sounded the alarm that LONG SIDE RISK has risen and to be on HIGH ALERT for a potential downturn.
Of course as we have seen this Bull Market has had significant legs and has continued to grind higher.
What now?
I told you in September that it did not matter who was elected that the Market would turn weak...and it did
We have been going essentially sideways since November
I also said that around Jan 15th the market would turn lower...and it has
I also said that lower move would take us down to the 5600-5700 region..and it did
Now I am telling you that we are setting up for what appears to be ONE FINAL PUSH HIGHER
Where does that move take us?
Somewhere near 6500
What happens after that?
You can expect a SWIFT CRASH LIKE move back to almost exactly where we are now but probably around 5400
And its at THAT point that ALL CARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE
You should expect a retracement back up from that 5400 region
If that retracement is CLEARLY CORRECTIVE in nature then you can expect a move down to 5000 and if the market cant hold that region then its: GAME OVER
Can I be wrong? Absolutely...and for the sake of the people I love, this country that I call home and my brotherhood of fellow humans around the world I HONESTLY HOPE I AM
Because if I'm not wrong then whats coming over the next decade will be potentially MUCH WORSE THAN A RECESSION
PREPARE YOURSELF
SPX Rising Wedge
Spotted an aggressively sloped rising wedge on SPX near the bottom of the recent correction. Theoretically, the more positive slope of the lower support compared to the upper resistance indicates buy-side pressure exhausting at a faster pace than sell-side pressure. Once bulls are exhausted, bears can reclaim control of the trend confirming the continuation.
Need a close below the orange wedge for confirmation of breakdown. Significant support at 5,631-5,652 so it is possible for this to catch a bounce before completing the measured move. However, if we break below 5,631 we will likely test the lower support of the blue parallel channel. Break below that structure takes us back to 5,505.