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Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period. It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally. Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate. So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies. Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios. But will 2024 follow the trend? The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor . This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia . What drives the Santa rally? Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices Will there be a Santa rally this year? Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas. Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not. The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year. The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year. Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all. Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Pandorra
3
[Education] The Brutal Truth About Trading DisciplineHere's what nobody tells you about trading discipline. It's not about motivation or willpower. You can't just "try harder" to be disciplined. If it were that simple, everyone would be profitable by now. Think about these scenarios. You see a setup forming but it's not quite perfect. You take the trade anyway because "close enough is good enough". Your stop loss is about to get hit, but you move it because you "feel" the market will reverse. You're down for the week and decide to risk 5% instead of your usual 1% to "recover losses". Sound familiar? These aren't strategy problems. These are discipline problems. Why Discipline Is Harder Than It Looks When you're backtesting, everything seems easy. You can fast forward. Drawdowns can be recovered easily. You don't feel the emotional impact of losing trades. You're not watching your real money disappear. But in live trading, every loss feels personal. It sucks when you miss an opportunity that could have given you a homerun trade. When a winning trade turns into a loss, you feel like pulling out your hair. I remember one trade where I had a perfect setup. Everything aligned with my trading plan. I got greedy. I didn’t close my trade at 2R profit as planned. I held onto the trade. The market reversed. My winning trade turned into a loss. That one moment of indiscipline cost me $500. But the real cost was much higher. It damaged my confidence and made me doubt my strategy. The Hidden Cost of Lack of Discipline Let's talk numbers. A strategy with 40% win rate and 1:2 RRR is profitable. However, if you cut winners early, that same strategy becomes a losing one. Instead of closing at 1:2 RRR, you closed at 1:1 RRR. With an average of 1:1 RRR, you need at least a 50% win rate to be breakeven. Things will get worse if you increase risk. If you increase your risk and lose, that one bad trade can wipe out a month of profits. The Framework That Changed Everything After blowing multiple accounts, I developed this simple framework that transformed my trading: Pre-Trade Checklist Write down entry, stop loss, and target BEFORE entering Calculate position size based on 1% risk Take a screenshot of your analysis Compare setup with your trading plan During Trade Management No looking at charts if you're set-and-forget No moving stop losses unless to breakeven No adding to losing positions No checking P&L constantly Post-Trade Review Journal every trade, win or lose Score yourself on discipline, not profits Review weekly to identify patterns Celebrate when you follow rules, regardless of outcome The Psychology Behind Discipline Here’s something interesting. When I trade funded accounts, my discipline improves dramatically. Why? Because it's not my money. I treat it like a business. It’s capital I would lose if I am not disciplined with my trades. This taught me something crucial. To be disciplined, you need to trade like a business, not a gambler. You have to focus on the process, and not the outcomes. You won’t be able to predict the outcome anyway. Accept that losses are part of trading. They are your business expenses. Once you’ve accepted that losing is inevitable, you will be able to keep your emotions out of trading. Taking Action: Your Next Steps Here’s what you should do next after learning from my framework. First, start small. Use a demo account to practice following rules. If you want to trade live, then trade minimal size while you build your discipline in trading. Only scale up when you can follow your plan for 20 trades straight. If you break your rules for 1 trade, restart the whole process. Next, create accountability for yourself. Share your trades with a mentor or trading buddy. Post your analysis online before entering trades. Review your trades at the end of the week. See if you have broken any of your trading rules this week. Lastly, build better habits. Set up your trading environment for success by removing distractions during trading hours. Keep your phones and social media away from you. Create a pre-trade ritual. That can be meditating, or simply just close your eyes. Remember to also reward yourself for following rules, not for profits. The Transformation You Can Expect When you are disciplined, your equity curve becomes smoother. You will not see a big drop in your equity curve due to excessive loss taken on 1 trade. Your stress levels decrease and confidence increases. You aren’t afraid of being wrong and being FOMO’d into entering earlier. As such, your results become consistent. Remember, every successful trader you admire has gone through this same journey. The difference between them and the 95% who fail isn't their strategy. It's their discipline. I'm now managing multiple six-figure funded accounts, not because I found a better strategy, but because I finally learned to follow my rules. The question isn't whether you know what to do. It's whether you can do what you know you should do.
SP:SPX
by Keeleytwj
Are we about to confirm a Super-Cycle event in the US Markets?In this week’s update, I’d like to delve into something that I consider probably one of the most important, but in the realm of my career, probably one of the last consequential decisions I will make in my time being affiliated with Markets. The potential of a Super-cycle topping event. This next week is my birthday. That got me thinking about my career. I first became professionally involved in the markets in 1990. But in truth, that story started when I first watched the 1987 movie “Wall Street”, starring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. I remember thinking to myself while watching this movie when it first aired …” that’s what I want to spend my life doing.” Probably not too far and away from many of you reading this, who caught the trading bug. Your origin story probably mimics mine to some extent. But I hailed from proud Austrian/Spanish descendants who settled in NYC in the 1930’s, and didn’t have much, and at the time, my aspirations seemed like a stretch. I went to college and majored in accounting as originally, I thought I would be a CPA. However, an internship at a big 8 accounting firm in my junior year called that aspiration into question almost immediately. My supervisor at the time commented to me…” you interns should pay us rather than the other way around ”. I assumed he was referring to the aspect that interns only complicate things, make his job harder, and I distinctly remember what a jerk this guy was, and that if the industry is filled with guys like this, I had little desire to join that cast of characters. Did my future entail me becoming this guy? It’s funny how life introduces you to people to guide, or divert you, from your chosen path…but nonetheless, becoming a CPA was a dream that I now felt at odds with. That was devasting for me because I felt I was back to square one…until I caught that movie. Leaving the theater, I was captivated, and so clear-eyed as to what I would spend the rest of my life doing. I simply would not be deterred. I got started at an investment banking firm under the tutelage of a senior advisor in the private placement division. I was fascinated by this transaction because it was (for the most part) a zero-risk proposition. I would inform some of the high-net-worth clientele of the firm that by buying restricted 144-stock prior to the IPO at a massive discount to the pricing date of the IPO, their stock would immediately become eligible for sale on Day 1 and at the opening price. The returns were typically 100% or more, and in a 6–24-month period, depending upon how complex the business was and the interest from the selling syndicate. It got to the point after several years, if the private placement allotment was GETTEX:25M or $50M I could place that entire allotment in a 10-hour work day and with only a handful of phone calls. The largest amount of time that passed was between my initial phone call and finally getting the client on the phone. The previous history of being involved in these transactions was a "no salesmanship on my part" required. The calls went, “I have $5M for private placement how much do you want”? I never heard objections like the retail brokers heard… ”I need to discuss this with my wife. or I’m going through a rough patch and have no discretionary funds.” It was here is my wiring instructions, you hit the firm’s account by COB at 4pm EST and the shares are yours. Fail to follow through on the wire, no problem… but I’ll never call you again ”. It wasn’t long before I was informed that secretaries were instructed if I called…regardless of what my client was involved with, put the call through. However, what I constantly thought about was how unfair the risk/reward was to all those who never had the chance to participate in these secretive transactions. The ups and downs of the markets had to make sense…and it wasn’t until 2012 that became affiliated with Elliott’s work. Previous to 2012, the technical analytical perspective was mocked as wishful thinking, or voodoo like. The prevailing thought process was the random walk theory, Dow theory, etc…I was a loyal follower of John Murphy (Founder of stockcharts.com) and in truth he turned me on to Elliott Wave Theory. The tenants of EWT made sense to me. They were routed in mathematics, and Fibonacci, and as a former accounting major, I felt were well within my scope of understanding. The by-product of that relationship was the absolute fascination with investor sentiment and the repeating patterns they tend to create, over and over again ("Self Similar" as Elliott put it in his original work). Fast forward 10 years and in 2022 after an exhaustive analytical look at the sum of the price action associated with the SPX500, I realized that the odds we were entering an area of a super-cycle wave (III) top was incredibly high. Now understand the magnitude of this observation of mine. If my analysis was correct, the last super-cycle wave (II) would have been experienced in the late summer of 1932. Even if we get alternation, this will be the trade of a lifetime. Not necessarily to be short the top, but to be amply prepared. I have discussed this notion with my members for two years so far. Heck, it was the leading reason why I founded EWTDaily.com. If I am right, this will affect every aspect of your financial lives, and by extension, probably your life in general. This week’s update is not to speculate what the causes are, or will be, of such an event. None of us know, and the reasons one could speculatively insert as a cause are adding up each and every month. However, to claim that my members were prepared, is all that matters to me.
SP:SPX
by maikisch
3
S&P500: Channel Up ready to explode to 6,175S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.112, MACD = 49.220, ADX = 50.110) as it is extending August's Channel Up. The 4H RSI is forming an Arc pattern that is much like the below 4H MA50 consolidation of October 1st - 8th. After that was completed, the price rallied to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension to form a HH on the Channel Up. The 1.786 Fib was the target of the next bullish wave as well. Consequently, we are long on SPX, aiming again for that Fib (TP = 6,175). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500 INDEX Technical Analysis & Outlook Ahead of Fed DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis The market is approaching a key week with potential volatility driven by the Fed Rate Decision and GDP data. Here's a breakdown of the scenarios: Bullish Scenario: Continuation of the Uptrend: Key Levels: - Breakout Support: 6022 - Pivot Point: 6058 - Resistance Line: 6099 and 6143. Conditions for Bullish Continuation: - Price must remain above 6022 (Breakout Support Line). - Stabilization above the 6099 resistance will confirm upward momentum toward 6143 (next resistance). - This move would support a continuation of the uptrend toward a new ATH. Fed Rate Impact: - If the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, the market may interpret this as dovish, fueling bullish sentiment and risk appetite. Bearish Scenario: Continuation of Downtrend: Key Levels: - Breakout Support Line: 6022 - First Support: 5971 - Next Supports: 5932 and 5863. Conditions for Bearish Reversal: - Price must break and close below 6022 on a 4-hour candle. - A break below this level opens the door to the next support at 5971. - Further bearish momentum could drive the price toward the Strong Support Zone around 5863. Fed Rate Impact: - If the Fed holds rates steady at 4.75% or signals hawkish intentions (e.g., no future rate cuts), bearish momentum may build due to reduced liquidity expectations. Trend Outlook: - Uptrend Continuation: Above 6022 and confirmed by a breakout above 6099. - Downtrend Continuation: Below 6022, targeting 5971 and lower levels. Key Summary: Bullish Confirmation: Hold above 6022 and break above 6099. Bearish Signal: Break and close below 6022, with lower targets of 5971 and 5932. Fed & GDP Impact: Monitor Fed decision for rate cuts (bullish) or no change (bearish).
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
SPX500 forming a Double Top pattern, will it keep going up?Technical Analysis: ================ SPX500 has formed a noticeable double top technical pattern. If it respects the double top pattern the price should touch around 5700. But if it keeps climbing the 6000 may become another support level. Fundamental Analysis: =================== 1) Israel war seems to be calming, which should reduce the uncertainty and boost the stock market 2) Russia Ukraine war is intensifying as a result of latest attacks. This war has potential to undermine all other good news and could go with the double top (technical analysis) 3) Santa Claus Rally can boost the stock market in coming weeks followed by correction in Jan 2025 ===== Happy Thanks Giving to all the traders ====
OANDA:SPX500USD
by spranav
US500 longus500 LONG 💎Please don't be greedy ENTRY : yellow point TP : blue lines SL : below red line for LONG position above red line for SHORT position ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1: Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2: For risk and money management: 5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20 And 3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by RODDYTRADING
Momentum is slowing down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD started a coorection down (wave 4). The momentum of this pair is slowing down and it looks like it is making an ending diagonal. So next week we could see price come into the lower Daily/ Weekly FVG and from there we could see another upmove. Trade idea: Wait for the correction down to finish into the FVG's and a change in orderflow to bullish. After that you could trade (short term) longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
SPX500 H4 |Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 6,033.76 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,950.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 6,121.24 which is a level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
Bullish momentum to extend?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 6,006.92 1st Support: 5,866.31 1st Resistance: 6,157.58 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
4.23 Breakouts in Bubbles. In 2022 SPX hit the 4.23 extension of the 2008 crash and went into about a year long bear move. Now we're trading back above that and around where I'd think max reasonable tolerance for a 4.23 false breakout would be. Major 4.23 breakouts are historically exceptional events. In this post I'll show you examples of what happened on breaks of them. Let's first look at the evidence for these fibs having been useful before for the SPX rally. We'll look and see if they have reactions that would seem "Beyond chance" and if they do, then it's reasonable to think the 4.23 decision will be important too, right? And if not, then no. But obviously we'd not have a post if not. Quite useful. Not perfect, certainly very useful. Being aware of big decisions at or around these levels helped a lot. The 4.23 reaction here was very shallow. 4.23's are prone to much deeper corrections and this would be a big risk if we're inside of a false breakout of the 4.23. But if we're actually breaking it, something wild usually happens above the 4.23. Here's the fibs from the Black Monday move. The breakout above it would go on to be known as the dotcom and housing bubbles and the GFC crash would end on the 4.23 retest. Interesting, right? That was around 1996 and that happened to be the same time Nasdaq broke the 4.23. This happened after the Nasdaq break. A headliner stock of the Nasdaq bubble was CSCO. That had a couple big reactions to fibs on the way up and broke the 4.23. And this happened. Remember that time GME went up 100% in a day? That was on the 4.23 break. Then it hyper boomed and mean reverted. As with the other examples. This is a fun one. It's off topic on the bull stuff but we'll be quick. Remember that time some oil contracts negative? 4.23 breaks usually look something like this. The red trend feeling extremely strong at the time but being tame relative to the blue trend. This part of the move will have some crash pullbacks in it but feature exceptional bullish engulfing candles. All of that stuff almost invariably ends up in a bust, but it's a lot of fun at the time.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
1