Updated levels for SP500 buy/hold/sell zonesDrawn-in areas represent red/ylw/grn sell/hold/buy zones
SPX trade ideas
Crash? Here's the case for a crash.
You may have noted I can, on occasion, be a bit of a bearish guy - but I don't actually use the word "Crash" all that much. Not all bear setups are crash setups. Even when they will be, a less dramatic bear move usually happens before a crash. The times when there's actual crash risk are low - but we have a confluence of them now.
Let's run through some crash signals.
1 - Pending 1.61 break. In any self respecting crash (anyone you know by a number for sure) the crash clearly picks up on a 1.61 break. If we drop again, we threatening that break.
www.tradingview.coem
Examples:
All the good ones, and other ones. Go look. You'll find over and over a downtrend transitions to a crash under the 1.61. The 1.61 either does not break- or we crash.
We currently have a bounce off the 1.27, retest of the previous structure and possible new sell off coming - these are things that can precede a 1.61 break.
Looking at local structure, this looks like a butterfly correction. Which is often found at or before the MIDDLE of a trend (crash).
Or an ABC.
Which would predict a drop stronger and bigger than the first (crash).
Then you have things like the 200 SMA bounce, those can get sketchy if there's a new low.
...Crash.
And we have the reason. Because although the technical norms I've explained here have been features in every notable crash ever, there was always a reason. Always something that would not be foreseeable with TA and would make the crash appear to be unpredictable.
The things that just seem too weird to be true unless take time to look into them.
Like Covid being a perfect 1.61 top.
Which started similarly to what we have here.
The Covid crash would start once the 1.27 broke- which is where we are now.
Conditions for a crash now are actually realistic. Generally speaking a crash is something that it's only valid to speak of potentially in the future in the event of multiple markers hitting. Lots of things have to happen before we have real honest and true crash conditions.
Unusual things. Like trending down consistently for a couple months.
Having insanely aggressive bounces off support but not really getting anywhere.
Containing a correction inside a 2 leg structure.
...Breaking a 1.61.
See where I'm going with this?
It might happen. If the low is not made, we enter into real crash territory on the next break.
3:30 pm updateMarket is still biased to the upside, but the fact that the rejected again at around 5500 is bearish for the time being. A gap fill tomorrow seems likely, we'll see how the overnight goes.
$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
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S&P 500 Rips Into Resistance- Bulls on NoticeThe S&P 500 has rallied more than 15.6% off the lows with the bull now testing confluent resistance at 5531/43 - a region defined by the 78.6% retracement of the monthly range and the April high-day close. Note that a three-point resistance slope converges on this threshold and the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below.
Initial support rests with the 4/22 reversal close at 5285 - losses below this threshold would threaten another bout of selling towards the yearly low-day close (LDC) near 5061 .
A topside breach / close above this hurdle exposes the monthly open at 5600 and the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the record highs at 5634 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line : The index is testing resistance here- losses would need to be limited to 5285 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 5434 needed to clear the way for the next leg of the advance.
-MB
SPX / SPY / ESM5 - Resistance levels aheadSPX is looking healthier above its shorter term MAs, particular with two closes above the 21 and downward trend line. There are still plenty of resistance areas ahead, including key fib levels, a gap fill, 100 and 200 down-sloping EMAs, and a swing symmetry level.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 25, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading session, the Index did steady to higher prices, distancing itself from the rendered obsolete Mean Resistance level of 5455 and targeting the next significant mark identified as Outer Index Rally 5550. This trend lays the groundwork for a continued upward movement; however, there is also a considerable risk of a sharp pullback to the Mean Support level of 5370 after reaching the Outer Index Rally at 5550.
Contrariwise, it is essential to acknowledge the possibility of upward momentum continuation resulting in meeting the primary target Outer Index Rally 5550 by challenging the Mean Resistance of 5672 and extending toward additional levels: Mean Resistance 5778 and Outer Index Rally 5945.
SPX - LONGprice is moving well with trade talks easing and agreements potentially coming into place. I believe price will continue this bullish momentum
Economy - Moving ForwardWhat's expected of the economy?
For 2025, the stock market started strong, the three major U.S. indexes soared to its all-time highs, putting confidence in retail investors.
End of Q1, we've seen a shift in the market due to tariffs and the start of a trade war. Why are the tariffs bad for the U.S. economy?
The biggest problem with tariffs is that it could drive higher prices in consumer goods through "taxes" in imported goods. It also causes disruption in supply chain, slower economic growth, retaliation from foreign countries, etc. The economic data also shows signs of a possible recession.
Not everything is lost.
Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, and Indian are taking in the lead in trade talks with Donald Trump. China has given exemptions to certain U.S. goods in order to ease the trade war, leading to a potential trade talks with the economy giants, the U.S. The 90 day reciprocal tariffs are also an opening for talks.
Let's see how it goes.
S&P 500 correction before the global fall.S&P 500 correction before the global fall of the usa stock market.
Hey traders! I’m sure many of you have noticed that after the introduction of retaliatory tariffs, the markets started getting pretty choppy.
The S&P 500 took a serious dive.
• On the weekly chart, I’ve marked a support level + the 161.8% Fibonacci level, where we might see a bounce back to the $5680–$5800 range.
• But from there, I think we could see the start of a major crash—both in equities and crypto—that could last 1–2 years.
• Based on my estimates, the S&P 500 could drop back to 2020–2021 levels, a wide range of 2200–3000.
• For Bitcoin, we’re talking around $5000; for Ethereum, $100–$300; and for Solana, $2–$12.
3D Chart:
3W Chart:
Real-world events that could tank the stock market this hard:
Global Recession: If major economies (US, China, EU) slide into a recession at the same time—think trade wars, rampant inflation, or a debt crisis—investors will dump risky assets like hot potatoes.
Trade War Escalation: Harsher tariffs between the US and China/EU could wreck supply chains, crush corporate earnings, and spark a full-on market panic.
Geopolitical Conflict: A big blow-up—like a full-scale war or crisis (say, Taiwan or the Middle East)—could send capital fleeing to safe havens (gold, bonds), while stocks and crypto get slaughtered.
Collapse of a Major Financial Player: If a big bank or hedge fund goes bust (Lehman Brothers 2.0-style) due to an overheated market or bad debt, it could trigger a domino effect.
Energy Crisis: A spike in oil/gas prices (from sanctions or conflicts, for example) could kneecap the economy and drag risk assets down with it.
Market Bubble Burst: If the current rally turns out to be a massive bubble (and plenty of folks think it is), its pop could pull indexes down all on its own.
Looming Wars: A potential Russia-Europe war starting as early as 2025, or an Iran-Israel conflict that drags in multiple nations, could destabilize global markets, spike energy prices, and send investors running for the exits.
Bears entering the market Bulls met a lot of resistance today. On the day chart we filled a big FVG. My guess is that bears would try to take this to down to fill the gap around 5345.
Stromm | S&P 500 & NASDAQ a RESISTANCE is NearThe S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are basically moving in lockstep right now — their structures look almost identical.
Starting with the S&P 500:
We’re currently trading into a 4-hour Fair Value Gap between $5,546 and $5,634, Sitting just under a 4-hour Order Block that could trigger a short-term reaction.
At the moment, though, it doesn’t really look like we’re going to flush all the way back down toward the $5,000 level (2-hour Order Block sitting much lower).
More likely?
This 4h Order Block just gives us a brief pullback, a minor reaction — and then price pushes higher again.
This would line up perfectly with my original scenario of Wave A completing around $4,805.
Personally, I’m already positioned around $4,800, so obviously, I'd love to see that level hold and price continue moving higher — ideally heading toward $6,000.
That would be the perfect extension — but nothing is guaranteed yet.
Still, structure right now leans bullish unless we see a sudden breakdown.
Now, for the Nasdaq CME_MINI:NQ1! :
Almost the same setup —
We have a 2-hour Order Block just above the current price, acting as short-term resistance,
And another 2-hour Order Block way lower, which now seems less likely to be tested unless something drastic happens.
So for the Nasdaq, the most realistic short-term scenario:
Hit resistance at the current 2h Order Block,
Maybe a small pullback toward 18,900–19,000,
Then continuation higher toward 20,000 or even 21,000 over the next few weeks.
SPX500: Short Setup Brewing!SPX500 is currently consolidating above the key volume node at 5,480.85, showing resilience after a sharp pullback last week. Price action remains inside a rising channel, but the steeper trendline has been broken, hinting at possible loss of momentum.
🔹 Key Observations:
Price is testing the lower trendline support—a breakdown here could trigger a move toward 5,400.
Volume profile shows heavy interest at 5,480, with a potential volume gap below that could accelerate downside.
VWAP support is intact for now, supporting a neutral-to-bullish bias.
A breakout above 5,530 would confirm bullish continuation and likely test 5,560+.
📈 Bias: Neutral to Bullish
📉 Breakdown Trigger: Below 5,480
📊 Probability Estimates:
Bullish breakout: 55%
Bearish breakdown: 45%
Watching closely for resolution at this inflection point. Patience until direction confirms.
💬 What’s your bias—bulls or bears?
#SPX500 #ES1 #S&P500 #VolumeProfile #TechnicalAnalysis #FOMC #VWAP #TrendlineBreak
What If Trump’s Tariffs Are Actually Bullish for SPX ?Hello Traders 🐺
In this idea, I want to take a closer look at SPX and break down why the new U.S. tariffs and Trump’s economic policies could either boost or damage the U.S. economy in the coming months. So make sure to stay with me until the very end.
🔍 Let’s start with the chart:
As you can see, SPX is currently holding above a weekly support level, marked by the orange ascending trendline. So far, so good. However, we’re also seeing a massive bearish divergence on the RSI — and in my opinion, this was one of the key reasons behind the recent Black Monday-style selloff.
⚠️ But here’s the deal: If SPX breaks below this orange trendline, the next strong support is around 3375 — aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the monthly blue trendline inside our green support zone.
🤔 Should we be bearish on SPX and the U.S. economy?
That’s the big question… and it’s tricky to answer right now. Let’s break it down.
🔧 1. Tariffs and Trump: What’s really going on?
We’re currently in a pause phase of the ongoing tariff war — with countries negotiating to avoid escalation. But here’s the catch: markets hate uncertainty, and that’s why we saw panic selling recently.
Still, most people miss the bigger picture here.
The U.S. has long been a consumer-driven economy, importing heavily from other nations. Meanwhile, U.S. producers have struggled to compete — both domestically and internationally — due to low tariffs at home and high tariffs abroad.
So what do Trump’s new tariffs do?
✅ They level the playing field for U.S. companies at home
✅ They push other countries to lower their tariffs through negotiation
✅ They reduce dependency on foreign imports and support domestic production
In short, if combined with smart monetary policy, these moves could actually help revive U.S. manufacturing and strengthen the economy in the mid-to-long term.
📉 Final thoughts on SPX:
I personally don’t believe the bearish breakdown is coming — but as a trader, I focus on reality, not preference. Right now, we’re still holding above major support, and unless that breaks, the bullish scenario remains in play.
Let me know what you think about this macro setup in the comments.
And as always remember:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
SPX: hard way upThe S&P 500 index tried very hard to sustain a bit of market optimism, however, it ended the trading week at almost the same level, where it started it. Monday was a positive day, where the index managed to open higher from Friday's close, reaching 5.450, however, through the rest of the week, it was traded with a negative sentiment. Thursday closed at the level of 5.282. Friday was a non-working day on Western markets, due to the Easter holiday. It will be closed also on Monday, which might be treated as a positive, considering current sentiment.
Regardless of a drop in the value of the index, the stocks were traded in a mixed manner. Market favourite Nvidia gained almost 3%, supported by its business plan for the next period, increasing their projections for exports to China. This was positive, considering the uncertainties related to trade tariffs between the US and China. Elly-Lilly, a drug maker, gained almost 14%, after posting positive results on a trial of its weight-loss drug.
Generally, US companies continue to provide relatively positive results, considering the ongoing uncertainties related to trade tariffs. The another topic which is bringing uncertainty in investors is a pressure from the US Administration on Fed to cut interest rates. Fed Chair Powell, noted during a speech that tariffs implemented by the US Administration could drive up inflation higher, which is certainly something that the market is not at all happy to hear at these sensitive moments. Increased inflation would imply that the Fed will not be in the position to cut interest rates, as planned, during the course of this year. So, regardless of positive results that US companies are still managing to post, still, the inflation fears are the most critical moment for investors, which continues to drive their sentiment for investments.
S&P 500: Defensive Plays Dominate as Growth Sectors Falter- Key Insights: The S&P 500, currently priced at **5275.7**, reflects cautious
investor sentiment, with defensive sectors like **utilities**, **consumer
staples**, and **real estate** outperforming amid market volatility.
Elevated uncertainty is evident from higher VIX levels, driven by
geopolitical tensions, weak forward earnings guidance, and concerns about
growth sectors such as **technology** and **semiconductors**. Institutional
flows into safe-haven assets like **gold** signal limited risk appetite,
suggesting near-term weakness in equity markets.
- Price Targets: For the upcoming week, a cautious long position is suggested,
given support scenarios and stabilization prospects.
- **Target 1 (T1): $5380** (short-term resistance)
- **Target 2 (T2): $5450** (psychological level)
- **Stop Level 1 (S1): $5180**
- **Stop Level 2 (S2): $5135**
- Recent Performance: The S&P 500 displayed mixed performance, with defensive
sectors outperforming while growth sectors like technology lagged due to
pressures from macroeconomic factors. The broader equity landscape remains
volatile, as indicated by the elevated VIX readings and constrained trading
ranges in major indices such as the Russell 2000.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts recommend defensive positioning, favoring sectors
like **utilities** and real estate, as investors grapple with recessionary
risks and inflation concerns. Technology and semiconductor stocks,
particularly **Nvidia** and **AMD**, face headwinds from regulatory
restrictions and trade tensions with China. Federal Reserve statements
suggest potential rate cuts later in the year, but near-term hawkishness
persists, given inflationary pressures.
- News Impact: Key earnings reports from **Tesla**, **Google**, **Intel**, and
**Boeing** could drive sentiment shifts. Tesla's results may influence
market trends heavily, reinforcing key technical levels. Additionally,
renewed U.S.-China trade concerns over semiconductor tariffs add
uncertainty. A weakening U.S. dollar favors safe-haven assets such as
**gold**, while geopolitical risks and economic softness point to limited
upside for risk assets in the near term.
make it possible, institutionalsJust maybe according to past data. We retailers just wishing well :)
SP500 & Oil Analysis: Elliott Waves a Fun Fact from RussiaI don’t track SP500 closely since I trade on the Russian exchange, where SP500 liquidity is thin 💧. But @Fewhale asked, so here’s my take:
📉 SP500 appears to have completed its consolidation and is now poised for a Wave 5 collapse. Note that despite the sprawling Wave 4, it doesn’t overlap with Wave 1 — aligning perfectly with Elliott Wave rules ✅.
Oil’s Looming Drop
🛢️ Oil is also gearing up for a significant downward move before a prolonged pause — mirroring SP500’s setup.
Fun Fact 🤓
Did you know Russian traders nicknamed the S&P500 "сиплый" (pronounced "sipliy"), which means "hoarse, husky"? That's because if you write "S&P" in Cyrillic letters, it becomes СИП (pronounced "sip")
Key Takeaways
1️⃣ SP500: Wave 5 drop likely after clean Elliott Wave structure.
2️⃣ Oil: Sharp decline ahead, similar to SP500’s trajectory.
⚠️ Reminder: Trade with your own strategy, not somebody else's charts! 📉❄️
💬 Your thoughts?
👉 Drop a comment: Are you betting on the crash or staying sidelined? 🎯
SPX500Abu Sarah's Daily Pivot Points Indicator
For S&P 500 Index Futures
Automatically updates and identifies important support and resistance areas
Works on all time frames
We Now Have Conditions for Limit Down Days in SPXMassive intraday pop today but it did not manage to advance much past the last high.
The size of the move today means if we had a big one day rejection of it that would now be a limit down day.
Which this specific thing does not have to happen (could down trend over a few days) break the low in this setp would give a strong case for limit down days to come.
It's not a term I use loosely.
In an optimistic outlook today we have a bullish wave 3 and the foothills of a new uptrend (or at least bull trap).
But if today rejects and turns out was a big bull trap - then we'd be about to head into the crash section of the move.
If you think it's been crashy so far - know that the second half is not slower than the first.
stuck between 2 trend lines!Boost and follow for more 🔥SPX is holding trend support, resistance = support is also showing up. push higher into trend resistance can happen from here.
maybe we get a break of the trend resistance sometimes in the next few weeks.. this seems like a choppy week with no crazy moves
chart request from @sweatytrigger
