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SPX Key Levels to Watch Jun 4 In today’s analysis of the S&P 500 (SPX), we’ll break down the crucial levels to watch as we head into June 4th. After perfectly testing the 5929 level yesterday, the market bounced back, setting the stage for potential moves. We’ll discuss the new support range between 5954 and 5967 and what it means for traders. If this range holds, we might see a rally towards 6165, but if it falters, a drop to 5850 could be on the horizon. These levels are highly actionable, so stay sharp and ready to react!
SP:SPXShort
by AATraders_Signals
1
SPX500 (S&P 500 Index) – Smart Money + Fibonacci Liquidity Sweep📅 Chart Timestamp: May 31, 2025 – 4H Timeframe 📈 Current Price: 5,902.26 📊 Volume (Recent Candle): 64.95K 🧠 Technical Breakdown 🔺 Premium Zone Rejection Price has sharply rejected the 5,995–6,050 area — a key premium supply zone aligned with the Fibonacci 1.0–1.236 extension. This rejection occurred after a weak internal high was formed, showing signs of exhaustion and liquidity grab behavior. 📉 Market Structure Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) confirm a short-term bearish market structure. Price has begun forming lower highs and is now in a distribution phase. 📏 Key Fibonacci & Smart Money Levels 0.786 Fib Retracement (5,804) → Recently tested; acted as a short-term support but broken. Equilibrium Zone (5,443.75) → Critical price magnet. Price is projected to gravitate toward this zone as part of a liquidity sweep and reaccumulation. Discount Zone (below 5,300) → Stronger support if equilibrium fails. Could serve as a long-term buying opportunity. 🌀 Expected Price Path (Yellow Projection) Short-term downside continuation into 5,560–5,440. Likely to form a double-bottom or mitigation structure at equilibrium. Reversal potential targeting 6,200–6,300 (1.236–1.382 extension) before next macro correction. 📈 Probability Framework Scenario Description Probability Rationale 📉 Pullback to Equilibrium Price revisits 5,443.75 75% Confluence of Smart Money FVGs + Fib levels + BOS indicates liquidity resting below 🔁 Reaccumulation at EQ Reversal from 5,440–5,500 65% Price often reacts to equilibrium in a bullish uptrend continuation 📈 Rally to 6,200+ Price takes out weak highs and extends 50% Depends on macro sentiment improving + liquidity expansion 🧨 Break below EQ into Discount Price collapses toward 5,300 30% Only if macro deterioration accelerates (Fed surprise, global contagion) 🧠 Macro Risk & Fundamental Context (as of May 31, 2025) 🏦 Federal Reserve Market is pricing in no rate cut in June, but increased odds (65–70%) of a cut in July. Sticky inflation + slowing job growth creates an uncertain macro narrative. 💵 Liquidity & Risk Sentiment Bond market volatility (MOVE Index) remains elevated → signaling stress in interest rate pricing. VIX is stable near 12–14 range → complacency risk if volatility spikes. Global liquidity has tightened in EMs due to dollar strength, though US equities remain buoyed by AI & tech. 📉 Earnings + Breadth Earnings season was mixed; top-heavy performance (few stocks driving index). Weak market breadth suggests a correction is healthy or overdue. ⚠️ Risk Factors to Monitor Surprise Fed policy pivot (hawkish). Geopolitical escalations (Middle East, Taiwan). Sudden rise in VIX or credit spreads. Bearish divergence between index and market breadth indicators.
FX:SPX500Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
1
S&P INTRADAY corrective pullback - pivotal zoneMacro & FX Outlook Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% decline in the US dollar by mid-2026, driven by a slowing US economy and expected Fed rate cuts. Trading implication: Long positions in EUR, GBP, and other G10 currencies may benefit as USD weakens. Watch for renewed momentum in carry trades and emerging market FX. Geopolitics Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates with Ukrainian drone strikes hitting deep into Russia (including Siberia) and Moscow launching one of its most sustained aerial attacks. Peace talks are expected in Turkey today. Trading implication: Elevated geopolitical risk could support safe havens (gold, CHF, USD short-term) and oil prices, depending on energy infrastructure vulnerability. UK Defense Spending The UK will allocate £15 billion to expand its nuclear warhead program, new attack submarines, and build munitions factories. Trading implication: Likely to support defense sector stocks and raise questions around fiscal policy ahead of elections; may contribute to upward pressure on gilts if deficits widen. Poland Political Shift Nationalist Karol Nawrocki wins presidential election, a setback for Poland’s pro-EU coalition government. Trading implication: Potential increase in EU policy friction. May weigh on Polish assets and zloty (PLN) in the short term. US Debt Ceiling & Diplomacy Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured markets the US will not default but gave no timeline on cash exhaustion. Also noted a Trump–Xi call is imminent, aiming to ease US-China tensions. Trading implication: Uncertainty over Treasury liquidity may raise short-term bill yields. Any improvement in US-China relations could lift global risk sentiment and Chinese equities. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6010 Resistance Level 2: 6070 Resistance Level 3: 6160 Support Level 1: 5780 Support Level 2: 5740 Support Level 3: 5700 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX: tariffs weekly tweet updateThe US Administration trade tariffs continue to bring confusion among market participants, but despite this, the S&P 500 managed to end May with a gain of 6,2%. The tariff-weekly-news included the announcement of the US President on social media that China “violated” current tariffs agreement. Although there were no further explanations, Bloomberg published information from an uncited source, that the US is planning to bring tariffs to China tech sector. At the same time, there was no official confirmation from the US Administration. The European Union is considering countermeasures on the US, after the announcement of the US Administration on an increase of tariffs on steel from 25% to 50%. All these ping-pong tariffs measures from the last period are causing some investors to slowly lose temper, with comments like “If you are an investor, you want to bet on good earnings, not good tweets about tariffs”, as Jay Hatfild from Infrastructure Capital Management told to CNBC. This brings some confidence that the markets will not make stronger moves on tweets, but only to actual moves of the US Administration in the coming period. Trading during May might provide some confidence also for the future period. In line with investors, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment showed some relaxation with the final May data. The indicator ended the month at the level of 52,2 a bit better from estimated 51. The most important are inflation expectations which also eased a bit from previous release, in which sense five year inflation expectations are currently at 4,2%, and below market estimate of 4,6%. The market confusion will most certainly continue also during June, but it seems at the lower volatility levels. More attention will be turned to macro data, and company earnings. The first trading week in June is bringing US jobs data, including the Non-farm payrolls, which might bring back some volatility on US equity markets.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPX500 – Fibonacci Breakdown Hints Deeper Correction AheadThis 1H SPX500 setup highlights a potential bearish continuation pattern following a clear rejection from the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone. Here's a breakdown of the trade thesis: 🔍 Analysis Summary: Fibonacci Cluster Rejection: Price failed to reclaim 5,921.31 (key resistance) and sharply rejected from the 0.618–0.786 retracement zone. Bearish Market Structure: Lower highs formed near the .618 Fib, followed by a strong impulsive sell-off. Liquidity Zone Below: The price is targeting the previous demand block near 5,796.99, a major structural liquidity zone. Measured Targets (Fibonacci Extensions): TP1: 1.236 @ 5,844.09 TP2: 1.618 @ 5,796.99 TP3: 2.0 @ 5,749.35 📌 Trade Setup: Short Entry Zone: 5,915 – 5,921 (retest of resistance) Stop Loss: Above swing high at 5,932 Take Profits: TP1: 5,844 (partial close) TP2: 5,796.99 (main target) TP3: 5,749 (optional extension) 🧠 Macro Consideration: With Fed rate uncertainty and bond market fragility, equities may be vulnerable to deeper retracement as institutions de-risk. Volatility remains elevated heading into month-end—be flexible and risk-aware. 📊 Evidence Supporting the Hypothesis Resistance at 0.618 Fibonacci Level: The SPX has approached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a critical resistance point. A failure to break above this level could indicate a potential reversal or continuation of the downtrend. Historical Significance of 0.618 Level: Breaking below the 0.618 Fibonacci support level often signals a continuation of the downtrend, as it is a significant retracement level in technical analysis. Stalling at Key Fibonacci Target: The S&P 500's recent rally has stalled near a critical Fibonacci retracement level, raising questions about whether the market is entering a new uptrend or merely experiencing a bear-market bounce. 📉 Implications for Traders Bearish Continuation: The inability of the SPX to surpass the 0.618–0.786 retracement zone suggests that the recent rally might be a temporary correction within a broader downtrend. Potential Targets: If the bearish trend resumes, traders might look for support levels at the 1.236, 1.618, and 2.0 Fibonacci extension levels, aligning with the previously mentioned targets of 5,844.09, 5,796.99, and 5,749.35, respectively. Risk Management: Given the current market volatility and the significance of these Fibonacci levels, traders should employ strict risk management strategies, including setting stop-loss orders above recent swing highs and monitoring for confirmation signals before entering positions. In summary, the SPX's struggle to break through the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, combined with historical patterns and recent technical analyses, supports the hypothesis of a potential bearish continuation. Traders should remain cautious and consider these technical indicators when making trading decisions. 📊 Wavervanir International LLC | Discretionary + Quant Hybrid Risk Management
FX:SPX500Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
5
SPY update for todayHello everyone, Not much new to update today, the main highlight is that the market has broken down from the trendline. This is definitely something to take note of. However, today’s move came with relatively low volume, which suggests that while price dropped significantly, there wasn’t a lot of strength behind the move. This reminds us of a key principle in trading: the market can do whatever it wants. It may look bullish today and turn bearish tomorrow. So always react to what the market is showing you, not just what you expect it to do. Easier said than done, I know, but it's essential. Looking ahead, this potential pullback could present better entry opportunities, assuming the market doesn’t flip into a full bearish meltdown. For now, we need to give the market some room to breathe, observe how it reacts at key levels, and stay patient for the right setup. Remember: we're still in a broadly bullish environment. So let’s wait for strong reactions at the right price points before jumping in.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by GonzooTrading
Structure Over Sentiment: Multi-Asset View into Month-End📊 Structure Over Sentiment: Multi-Asset View into Month-End | May 30, 2025 This isn’t a crash. This isn’t a rally. This is digestion. The multi-asset view tells the real story — and it's not as chaotic as it looks. 🔍 What the Chart Shows: This correlation lens plots key macro and market drivers YTD: 🟣 Gold (XAUUSD): Leading with +24.71% — this is the quiet macro bid no one’s talking about 🟢 Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Holding +8.47% — volatile, but still showing risk appetite 🔴 10Y Yield (US10Y): Up +5.31% — signalling rates peaking 🟠 Nasdaq (NDX): Nearly flat, -0.36% — NVDA strength masking internal rotation 🔵 S&P 500 (SPX): -2.32% — structurally fine, just not euphoric 🔵 Dow (DJA): -5.91% — lagging, cyclical drag 🔵 Russell 2000 (RTY): -13.60% — small caps under pressure, risk-on caution flag 🟣 Dollar Index (DXY): -6.44% — fading after a strong Q1 🟢 Oil (WTIUSD): -10.26% — no inflation panic here 🧠 Key Insight: Despite the tariff headlines, sticky PCE, and conflicting narratives — the market remains internally consistent. Gold is leading Yields are rising but not sharply Bitcoin is positive Equities are flat-to-negative Oil is weak Dollar is fading This is classic late-cycle digestion, not a crisis. 🛡️ Titan Mindset Check-In: Don’t get lost in single headlines Follow structure, not speculation Let leaders lead (NVDA, Gold, BTC) Protect equity when breath narrows Zoom out, reduce noise, trade the curve — not the chaos 📍“Volatility isn’t risk. Misinterpretation is.” Take Profits, Not Chances. #MultiAssetView #StructureOverShock #TitanProtect #SPX #NDX #BTC #Gold #DXY #WTI #US10Y #MacroFlow #MarketMindset #LateCycleSignals #DigestDontPanic
SP:SPXEducation
by Rizq-FX
S&P 500 MAJOR REVERSAL INCOMING? | SPX500 SELL ZONE HIT SPX500 just tapped into a critical supply zone near 5985 and has started pulling back. Is this the beginning of a deeper correction? Here’s what I’m watching 👇 --- 📊 Key Technical Zones: 🔵 Supply Zone: 5985 – 6000 (Strong historical rejection zone) ⚠️ First Support: 5436.1 – potential bounce area, but already tested 🧱 Major Demand Zone: 4990 – heavy volume base, ideal buy zone for bulls --- 🚨 Bearish Clues on the Chart: Price got rejected at the top of the supply range with a strong wick. Bearish divergence on recent highs (not shown here but evident on RSI/MACD). Clean downside structure could target 5436, then 4990 if broken. 📉 Downside Projections: First TP: 5436 Final TP: 4990 (big institutional interest) --- 🔁 Possible Scenarios: 1. 🔻 Bearish Continuation: If we break below recent support near 5880, expect speed towards 5436. 2. 🟢 Bullish Fakeout: Only a strong breakout above 5985 invalidates this setup. --- 🎯 Trade Idea (Educational): Entry: Break and retest below 5880 SL: Above 5985 zone TP1: 5436 TP2: 4990 --- 📅 June Will Be Volatile – Stay prepared. 💬 Do you think this is the start of a correction or just a dip before ATH? 🔔 Follow @FrankFx14 for clean and professional chart updates! 👍 Like, 🔁 share, and 💭 comment your thoughts below!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by FrankFx14
S&P 500 & Indexes Breakdown + Trade SetupsIn this video, I dive into the S&P 500 and other major indexes to share my current market outlook. Right now, price action is stalling and volume continues to dry up — a signal that we could be due for a deeper pullback before any continuation to the upside. 📌 With global fundamentals such as: US–China trade tensions Russia–Ukraine war Broader geopolitical risks …it’s hard to ignore the pressure building. That’s why I lean bearish in the short term, expecting potential downside before any breakout to new highs. ⚠️ Of course, trying to short in this slow grind can feel like catching a falling knife — but I’ve prepped a few setups, all broken down in the video based on solid technical confluences. Watch the full breakdown and let me know your thoughts. Thanks for tuning in! 🙏 👇 Drop a comment, like, and subscribe for more market breakdowns. #SP500 #IndexBreakdown #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeSetups #BearishBias #VolumeAnalysis #GeoPolitics #SwingTrading #TradingCommunity #TradingView
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by GonzooTrading
S&P500 INTRADAY uptrend continuation supported at 5960Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6120 Resistance Level 2: 6170 Resistance Level 3: 6220 Support Level 1: 5960 Support Level 2: 5900 Support Level 3: 5800 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P 500 update from last week📉 Lesson Learned – The Way of a Trader 📈 Well… this time I jumped the gun. Thought the market would break lower from a compression point, but I was wrong. Price pushed higher, broke the ascending channel upwards — and I paid the price 💸 Not much volume behind the move, but still... up is up. I acted on a gut feeling, and that didn’t work out. The mistake? ⛔ Tried to predict the top ⛔ Didn't wait for a confirmed break with volume Now it’s time to: ✅ Review ✅ Re-evaluate ✅ Learn ✅ Come back stronger We’re not always going to be right — and that’s part of the game. Discipline beats ego. Welcome to the life of a trader. Let’s keep improving 🔁
ICMARKETS:US500
by GonzooTrading