S&P500 Short: Update on wave counts, Completion of WXYThis is my 3rd attempt to call the correction peak for S&P500 or Nasdaq (I use them interchangeably). From the previous short idea using Nasdaq, I mentioned that the reason for the invalidation of the previous idea is due to the last wave 5 of C of Y to extend into a 5-wave structure.
Over here, the short position will be stopped out if a new high above wave Y is hit. I offered 2 conservative targets in this short idea and suggests that one can reduce position and shift stop loss when the first conservative target is reached. I also mention that if this WXY wave structure is the correct call, then the big picture is really that S&P500 will crash below 4800.
Good luck!
SPX trade ideas
S&P500 Chasing a Retrace - Waiting for Equilibrium After Rally🗓️ Yesterday, I mentioned watching the S&P 500 for a retrace to find a potential long entry. But with the US-China tariff agreement announced, the market rallied hard 🚀—a clear positive for stocks. We didn’t get much of a pullback, and right now, I see the S&P 500 as overextended. I’m not looking to jump in at these premium levels. Instead, I’m waiting for a Fibonacci retrace back down into equilibrium on the current swing for a better opportunity. 👀
My plan: I’ll watch for a bearish break of structure to signal a retrace, then monitor price action as we approach support. If support holds and we get a bullish break of structure, that’s when I’ll look to get involved. 🔄
Just sharing my idea here—this isn’t financial advice! 📢
SPX: US-China tariffs talkOne of the most important weekly events was the FOMC meeting, where its members held the interest rates unchanged for one more time. Many analysts are in agreement that the Fed made the right decision, without jumping-into-conclusion regarding the potential negative effects of trade tariffs. However, this topic was addressed by the Fed Chair Powell, at his after-the-meeting address to the public, where he noted a confidence that the Fed will react immediately in case that stronger negative effects of trade tariffs reflect in the economy. Here, he noted once again the dual mandate of the Fed - to keep full unemployment and inflation at the targeted 2%. The market reacted positively to his speech, bringing the US equity markets to the higher levels. The S&P 500 gained during the week, from 5.586 to 5.713. However, Friday's trading session was with a negative sentiment, considering forthcoming US-China tariffs talk, expected to start soon.
At the same time, the US managed to settle trade tariffs at the level of 10% with the United Kingdom. Analysts are commenting that this might be a general level for the majority of other countries. However, the US President published on social networks that he hopes to settle tariffs with China at 80%, which is still too high. Considering forthcoming talks between two governments and also taking into account that China is one of the most important trading partners with the US, the market sensitivity will continue to be in an on-off mode. This means that the market volatility will most certainly continue in the coming period.
S&P500 Analysis 12-May-25 Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
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Overnight Futures Pop 2.8% on Surprise Tariff TruceYou either woke up to a panic… or to a profit.
This morning, markets are ripping higher - not because of earnings, not because of data - but because two superpowers shook hands over fondue in Switzerland.
If you're feeling blindsided, you probably chased last week’s noise.
If you're feeling calm, you’re probably following the AntiVestor way.
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SPX Market Briefing
The headlines are loud. So let’s talk facts.
Over the weekend, the United States and China agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback:
US duties drop from 145% to 30%
China drops theirs from 125% to 10%
Both sides now pretending to like each other until mid-August
Markets reacted the only way they know how: with euphoria.
SPX futures are up 2.8%. Nasdaq is flying. The Dow surged more than 900 points premarket.
Here’s what we did:
Nothing reckless. Nothing oversized. Nothing emotional.
The system turned bearish late last week, and we followed it - small, tactical, mechanical. Not a bet. Just a position.
And here’s the kicker:
I still held a few bullish positions from the prior bias. They were so far out-of-the-money, I didn’t even bother closing them.
Guess what?
They’re in profit - and my net exposure is green despite the initial bear swing going underwater.
So while the news makes others overreact, we get to do what we always do:
Let the market come to us.
The real money isn’t made chasing this 2.8% pop.
It’s made waiting for the next confirmed setup.
...and a little good luck always helps ;)
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Expert Insights:
Mistake: Jumping into emotional gap openings
AntiVestor Fix: Let others panic. Let your system speak.
Gap moves on news tend to retrace or fade - and even if they don't, entering late is a coin toss. Smart traders wait. Pros wait. We wait.
---
Rumour Has It…
Whispers from the Swiss hotel bar claim the entire US-China agreement was sparked when both delegates reached for the same dessert spoon. One espresso and a bottle of Pinot later, tariffs were slashed and SPX gapped 2.8%.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact
According to CBOE data, Monday gap-ups following geopolitical “resolutions” average a +2.2% open… but only hold those gains 41% of the time by Friday’s close. Which means chasing the open? Not your best trade. Waiting for follow-through? That’s the edge.
sp 500 trend down S&P 500 remains in a broader downtrend, driven by persistent economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures. Despite a recent correction, with the SPY rising approximately 2.5% from $551.23 on April 25 to $565.00 on May 9, this uptick may be temporary, as market sentiment and macroeconomic indicators suggest ongoing volatility and potential further declines
The final rally or the beginning of hyper-inflation? This is an ascending wedge, (65% chance of a break to the downside statistically,) that the S&P500 has been trading in for it's entire life cycle. All historical data points to a final topping process as market makers head back for the top trend to liquidate short positions that took positions on the last plunge.
The former sell-off showed no signs of big money taking full exit from the market as it was quite gradual; allowing short positions to stack at back tests of key resistance areas. Therefore, it stands to reason that the oversold daily RSI was going to allow for a powerful bounce to catch shorts off guard. The market will not sell off largely until shorts have capitulated as exchanges and banks load up for a final rally to completely remove those positions and sell new highs. when this happens, there will be no gradual dump but, instead, a red waterfall with news about hyperbolic, impending disasters coming out after the largest institutions push the sell button.
Breaking that top trend on the 3 month logarithmic chart would be a first in market history and denote hyper-inflation followed by the coming crash being even more violent then anyone believes is possible. It is a good time to start scaling out of the market little by little.
SPX500 SLOWS DOWN AT BEARISH ORDER BLOCK!With SPX500 index slowing down at the bearish order block, the next trading week most likely will be bearish...
N.B!
- SPX500 price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#spx
#spx500
#es
$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
S&P 500 Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with SP:SPX bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
SPX500 Quick Market Outlook – May 23, 2025 | 15m ChartPosted by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Today's session shows bearish continuation patterns despite a temporary bounce. We're currently trading just below the equilibrium level, with price rejecting from the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zone. The bearish OB (Order Block) above continues to act as a ceiling.
🔍 Key Observations:
Price action is forming lower highs under resistance.
Volume profile and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) suggest distribution near the 5787–5794 zone.
Break below 5766.41 (daily ORB low) could open the path to 5721.75 – 1.618 extension.
Bullish invalidation only above 5793.80, where price would regain control above the mid-FVG and EMA cluster.
⚠️ Watch List:
Key levels: 5787.44 (pivot), 5761.17 (support), 5721.75 (target)
Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims 5795+ with volume
Trigger: Confirmation via 15m candle close below 5766 and breakdown in volume structure
Stay adaptive. The market structure is still forming, and liquidity sweeps can occur.
GAP to Fill in RectangleThe S&P 500 (SPX) is poised to fill its recent gap, having re-entered the prior consolidation range and now challenging the 200-day moving average. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting near overbought territory, the market may need a brief cooldown before resuming its trend. At the same time, rising bond yields are casting a shadow on equities, as investors weigh the impact of higher borrowing costs on corporate profits. Until yields stabilize, we’re likely to see heightened volatility around key technical levels.
SPX500 H1 | Multi-swing-low support at 38.2% Fib retracementSPX500 is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,822.41 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 5,770.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,932.39 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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SPX Short Puts - An Idea to testI dont like paper trading because it doesnt seem real. Just like online poker thats not for real money, its hard to care enough. So I put this trade on this morning, SPX Sold 5735 Put and Bought 5700 Put for $5.95 credit 8 day expiration (May 30). An 8 day trade is of course exposed to overnight and over a long weekend risk but its traded around the support range of the gap fill. I built the spread at the strikes I wanted then moved it out in expiration until it had an amount of credit I felt good about it.
Theres been an upward drift on it so far today so its gone in my favor, I dont recall what the delta was at the time but its 18.51 now so it had to be in the 20's. Its up $115 right now so it could be closed as a winner and I can come back tomorrow for something else, but I'm going to leave it open. The thought here is I like the support level of 5720 if the gap fill occurs, it should have a decent bounce if it even gets there so my 5735 shouldnt get into that much more trouble anyway. The idea here is if it even gets to the range of it, I roll it because regardless of what happens, I dont think its going to stay below 5720 for too long. The other part of the idea is if the market drifts sideways or upward, I can roll it out daily to maintain about the same delta and collect some credit. I dont really want to go longer than 9 or 10 days though so I'd have to look for a different strike when it moves too high.
$SPXSP:SPX staying strong as the One Big Beautiful Bill pushes forward 🇺🇸📊
This bill could be the fuel the market needs:
✅ Economic momentum through tax relief & job creation
🔧 High-tech equipment demand rising
🏗️ U.S. doubling down on skilled labor to rebuild smarter, stronger infrastructure
This isn’t just policy it’s a blueprint for long-term bullish energy in the markets. Eyes on SP:SPX 📈🔥
A short term buy opportunity: US500AUDHello,
We are at a great level for buy opportunities for the S&P500 quoted in AUD from a technical point of view. After the Trump tariff declaration, most countries rushed and sought exemptions. However, China chose to retaliate. The focus shifted towards China and the trade war between the US and China escalated quite fast. President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. China responded with a 125% tax on US imports, bringing nearly $600 billion in trade to a halt. Trump continues to insist that the issue of trade deficits needs to be solved and he seems quite serious about it. However, we acknowledge that Tariffs will not solve the trade deficits in totality. Tariffs are still seen as a negotiation tactic to call stakeholders to the table for President Trump. The U.S. and China are economically interdependent. The U.S. is China’s largest export market, and China is the U.S.’s largest import market.
On 14th may, China and the Unites States called for a truce on the trade war and agreed to reduce tariffs on one another by 115 per cent for 90 days. The average U.S. tariff rate on Chinese exports will fall from 145 per cent to 30 per cent during that time, and the corresponding Chinese figure will fall from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. Additionally, the United States and the United Kingdom announced a trade deal for both countries. This two significant news excited the market and the S&P which is a market barometer was not left out. The S&P has since recovered and is currently trading at $5,886 (Above the April 2nd levels). While analysts may be concerned whether the underlying structure of the relationship between the United States and other economies remains fragile and subject to re-escalation. The long-term implications of this trade truce are still being assessed, with some anticipating renewed trade flows and market gains, while others caution that the underlying structural issues remain.
We believe the U.S. may shift its focus to accelerating Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the near term. Just yesterday (13th May 2025), the inflation numbers came in lower than expected, the consumer price index rose by 2.3% in April, down from 2.4% in March – prompting President Trump to renew attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell, demanding he cut interest rates. We believe that lower rates will add onto an already rising market and now is a perfect time for us to align our portfolio by considering adding more into the S&P 500.
Adding to the above is that we are just closing on the Quarter one 2025 results and, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 78% surpassing estimates, according to FactSet. This strong performance signals robust market health, particularly at current lows. Although tariffs were introduced post-Q1, the combination of solid earnings, easing inflation, and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut could drive a bullish surge toward all-time highs. We recommend a buy on the US500AUD from the current levels.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPX500 | Macro-Fib Confluence Levels + Risk Roadmap🕰️ Daily Chart | May 21, 2025
🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC
After a sharp retracement and subsequent rally, the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is now facing overhead resistance near the 0.886 Fib retracement (~5,875-5,953) from the previous swing high.
🔍 Technical Overview:
Confluence Resistance: 5,875–5,953 zone (0.886 Fib)
Micro W-Pattern Setup: Pullback expected to 5,640–5,700 before a potential higher low sets up a breakout.
Bull Targets:
6,182 (1.236 Fib ext)
6,512 (1.618 Fib ext, potential exhaustion zone)
🧠 Macro + Volatility Context:
Monetary Policy: Fed remains data-dependent. July rate cut odds are increasing, but the market remains bifurcated between sticky services inflation and weakening real GDP prints.
Bond Market: Yield curve remains inverted. A breakout above 6,182 will likely need bond volatility (MOVE index) to stabilize under 100.
Global Flow Risks: Continued capital inflows into U.S. equities amid geopolitical hedging, but China liquidity injections and BOJ FX defense add noise.
🛡️ Risk Management Notes:
Pullback Zone: 5,640–5,700 = high-conviction buy zone (0.5–0.618 retracement of last impulse)
Invalidation: Daily close below 5,573 or breach of 5,475 = reassess long thesis.
Position Sizing: Favor partial scaling-in with tight trailing stop until breakout confirmation.
📌 Strategy Summary:
We are watching for a tactical pullback into the golden zone followed by a measured continuation toward 6,182+ if macro tailwinds align (i.e., dovish Fed tone + improving liquidity metrics). The setup mirrors late-cycle rallies and should be monitored alongside bond yields and dollar strength.
⚠️ Patience > Chase. Let the W structure play out.
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🔗 #SPX500 #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #Wavervanir #SMC #RiskManagement #TradingViewAnalysis
05/20/25 Trade Journal, and Where is the Stock Market going tomoEOD accountability report: +293.75
Sleep: 4.5 hours , Overall health: Calm and tired. need to catch up on sleep.
What was my initial plan?
Market structure was bearish so, I started the day shorting, but once market flipped bullish, I switched to BTD mode.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal
— 11:18 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 1:20 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal
— 3:13 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal 2x signal (C+ set up)
Next day plan--> Above 5900 = Bullish, if we lose 48min support at 5900--> 5800 next
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
Should you listen to JP Morgan CEO, Jamie?Jamie could be right about Quarter 2 where we start to see the effects of the tariff hurting the US markets. Earnings down, that means PE will follow and share price comes down.
But should SELL all your US assets like what some influencers are telling you? I can't decide for you but I am holding to it and ride it through. Why? Simple - I am not smart enough to TIME the market knowing exactly when is the bottom and when is the peak.
That is what some gurus are positioning themselves to be, naturally with some courses involved and a membership into their group chat,etc. It is obvious only the profitable trades are displayed on social media for all to see so that FOMO effects kicks in. WHY didnt I join this club else I would be the one also making the profit?
What I love about WB is his wisdom. He said learnt to take the risk and the returns will come. In that, he means doing the necessary work , research on why in the first place are you buying a particular company and not midway, let it affects your decision to start dumping.
I also think some traders/investors have unrealistic expectations, thinking that every single trade they undertake must yield a profit. They believe in the method they are using so it is hard to accept when SL is hit. I have said umpteen times. Whoever can come up with a system that yields consistent profits, he would not be marketing it but first borrow so much money to bet on it himself and make a millionaire or multimillionaire out of it. That is the logic instead of touting it online and kept promoting how good it is.
So for me, I am hanging on tight to my good quality companies and not selling anything at this juncture but keeping an open mind to what's to come in the near future.
As usual, please DYODD