Stock Markets Consolidate Ahead of the HolidaysStock Markets Consolidate Ahead of the Holidays
A lull is expected on the financial markets today due to a shortened trading week related to the Easter holiday celebrations.
It is reasonable to assume that traders will get a “breather” after a news-heavy April, which caused a volatile “shakeout” in the stock markets.
US Stock Markets
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was both cautious and somewhat aggressive in his forecasts regarding US monetary policy, stating that Trump’s tariffs could delay the achievement of inflation targets.
In response, US President Donald Trump accused Powell of “playing politics”, hinting at his possible dismissal.
European Stock Markets
On Thursday, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in the past 12 months, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde left the door open for further easing.
Analysts had expected a rate cut from 2.65% to 2.40%, so the financial markets reacted relatively calmly to the ECB’s decision.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
On the charts of European and US stock indices today, a narrowing triangle pattern is forming, indicating a balance between supply and demand — in other words, price is more efficiently factoring in all influencing elements.
On the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the triangle is highlighted in grey. The ADX and ATR indicators are trending downwards, which underlines signs of consolidation.
From a bearish perspective, the market is in a downtrend (marked by the red trend channel) — but from a bullish point of view, price is in the upper half of the channel.
Although the situation appears “reassuring”, the long weekend may bring a string of high-impact statements from the White House, which could disrupt the balance and lead to a breakout from the triangle.
It is not out of the question that the bulls may seize the initiative and challenge the upper boundary of the channel in an attempt to lay the groundwork for an upward trend (shown in blue lines).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX trade ideas
SPX path forwardThe SPX appears to be transitioning out of Wave 4 and initiating Wave 5 of the current Elliott Wave cycle. This breakout from Wave 4 suggests the final leg of the broader impulsive structure is underway, typically characterized by renewed momentum and trader interest.
At this stage, we can expect a pullback or bounce near the previous Wave 3 low, which often acts as a key support level during the early stages of Wave 5 development. Should this level hold, price action is likely to resume downward, completing Wave 5 within the projected target zone.
Downside targets for Wave 5 completion are currently in the 4,700 to 4,600 range, aligning with a typical Fibonacci extension (0.618–1.0 of Wave 1 through Wave 3) and previous structure zones that may offer confluence.
SPXGiven the escalating tariff pressures, it's clear that this scenario is unsustainable for any economy in the long term. I anticipate a resolution to the US-China trade issue within the next few weeks to months.
The current market correction is likely a reflection of the accumulated negative impacts from Trump's second term, and from a technical analysis perspective, further downside levels are indicated on the charts.
However, looking at the broader, four-year horizon of Trump's presidency, there are several potentially bullish factors, including tax cuts, financial deregulation, continued Fed dovishness, and the possibility of renewed quantitative easing.
S&P INTRADAY key resistance at 5509
Donald Trump said there was “big progress” in trade talks with Japan, easing fears of higher tariffs. This boosted the Nikkei 225, as traders grew less concerned about U.S. pressure for a stronger yen.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound after Wednesday’s selloff. The drop was sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who struck a cautious tone on tariffs and signaled no rush to cut rates, disappointing markets looking for quicker support.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
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Could be a good time to build a longer term SPX long Potentially good reward:risk here for investors / longer timeframe swing traders or position traders
Last week was a big test for the SPX index - it tested two crucial supports
1) Retest of the 2022 highs
2) Retest of the major trendline which has held the trend for around 2.5 years now
It looks like buyers came in strong at support giving us a big bullish candle - likely forming a capitulation low.
Major pullbacks like these come only a few times a year - and if managed well can be good R:R trades.
For investors/position traders:
If the low from last week holds, any pullbacks into 5250 or lower seem like a good time to add - for a longer term hold for a few months or even a few quarters.
For traders wanting to see some clear momentum first:
The most important resistance up above is the 5600-5800 area & the 20w ema (which aligns with it currently). You might want wait for a clean reclaim of this resistance first. For investors, you could think of adding to your buys once this resistance is reclaimed strongly.
TLDR;
SPX might have capitulated
This is a decent area to start buying for a longer term hold - targeting the prior highs first and holding some into price discovery
Invalidation: if a weekly candle closes below the recent low
When to observe PA closely: test of the 5600-5800 resistance / 20w ema
Global Market Overview. Part 2 — U.S. Stock Indices Start of the series here:
Indices? What about the indices?
When the market isn’t an economy, but a chessboard riddled with landmines.
As much as we’d like to see rationality reflected in index charts, indices are not the economy.
They are derivative instruments that track the capital flow into the largest publicly traded companies. In our case — they serve as a mirror of the U.S. stock market. But here’s the thing:
There’s one core principle that most analysts love to forget:
Once interest rates are cut — the game flips bullish.
Cheap money doesn’t lie idle. It flows straight into corporate balance sheets. And one of the first strategies that gets deployed? Buybacks.
Share repurchases are the fastest way to inflate stock prices — without changing the product, the market, or even the strategy. It’s an old Wall Street tune. And it’ll play again the moment Jerome Powell gives the signal to cut. Even if he says, “It’s temporary,” the market won’t care — it’ll act automatically.
But what if the cut doesn’t come?
What if the Fed drags its feet, and U.S.–China relations fully descend into trade war?
What if instead of cheap money, we get a recession?
That scenario benefits neither the U.S. nor China. Despite political theatrics, the two economies are deeply intertwined. Much more so than their leaders admit.
The unspoken threat from China
If Beijing wanted, it could cripple the U.S. economy overnight —
Nationalizing all American-owned assets on Chinese soil, from Apple’s factories to Nike’s logistics chains.
If that happens, dozens of U.S. corporate stocks would be worth less than toilet paper.
But China doesn’t make that move. Because blackmail is not the tool of strategists.
Beijing thinks long-term. Unlike Washington, it counts consequences.
And it knows: with Trump — you can negotiate. You just have to place your pieces right.
Want to understand China? Don’t read a report — read a stratagem.
If you truly want to grasp how Beijing thinks, forget Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal for a minute.
Open “The 36 Stratagems” — an ancient Chinese treatise that teaches how rulers think.
Not in terms of strong vs. weak — but when, through whom, and against what.
You’ll see why no one’s pressing the red button right now: the game isn’t about quarterly wins — it’s about future control.
The economy is built for growth. That’s not ideology — that’s axiomatic.
Argue all you want about bubbles, fairness, or who started what.
One thing never changes: the global economic model is based on growth.
No ministry or central statistical agency can stand before a microphone and say, “We want things to fall.”
Markets reflect future expectations. And expectations are, by definition, based on belief in growth.
Even crashes are seen as temporary corrections, paving the way for recovery.
That’s why people always buy the dip.
Not retail. Smart money.
Because no panic lasts forever — especially when the whole system is backed by cash.
The U.S. controls the market through headlines
This logic fuels Washington’s strategy.
Today, Powell “waits.”
Tomorrow, the White House stirs panic with tariff threats.
The day after — surprise! “Constructive dialogue.”
And just like that:
Markets rally, dollar corrects, headlines flip from “crisis” to “hope.”
It’s not coincidence. It’s perception management.
Markets crash fast — but they rebound just as fast, once a positive signal drops. Especially when that signal touches the U.S.–China trade front.
One line — “talks are progressing” — and by nightfall, S&P 500 is back in the green.
Why? Because everyone knows:
If there’s de-escalation — it’s not a bounce. It’s a new cycle.
The recovery scenario
Here’s what happens if negotiations progress:
The dollar weakens — capital exits safe havens
S&P 500 and Nasdaq spike — driven by tech and buybacks
Money flows back into risk assets — especially industrials and retail, exposed to international trade
Gold and bonds correct — as fear fades
We don’t live in an era of stability. We live in an era of narrative control.
This isn’t an economic crisis.
This is a crisis of faith in market logic.
But the foundation remains: capital seeks growth.
And if growth is painted via headlines, buybacks, or a surprise rate cut — the market will believe.
Because it has no other choice.
In the markets, it’s not about who’s right —
It’s about who anticipates the shift in narrative first.
SPX - uncertainty aheadThe recent events initiated by the POTUS destroyed all the trust in the global market structor. Uncertainty is the worst for Markets, trust is the key for investors to risk money and that is getting lost day by day.
If the course is not changed it is likely that we do see a sideway action for the next 6-7years till the dust settles. Nothing big to gain only a lot to loose at the moment.
S&P 500 Index Goes 'Death Crossed' Again, Due To Unruly EconomyThe "Death Cross" is a technical chart pattern signaling potential bearish momentum in the US stock market, occurring when a short-term moving average (typically the 50-day) crosses below a long-term moving average (usually the 200-day).
Despite its foreboding name, historical data shows its implications are often less dire than perceived, serving as a coincident indicator of market weakness rather than a definitive predictor of collapse.
Historical Examples and Market Impact
The death cross gained notoriety for preceding major market downturns:
2000 Dot-Com Bubble: The Nasdaq Composite’s death cross in June 2000 coincided with the burst of the tech bubble, leading to a prolonged bear market.
2008 Financial Crisis: The S&P 500’s death cross in December 2007 foreshadowed the 2008 crash, with the index losing over 50% of its value by early 2009.
2020 COVID-19 Crash: The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all formed death crosses in March 2020 amid pandemic-driven panic, though markets rebounded sharply within months.
2022 Ukraine's War Crisis: The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all formed death crosses in March 2022 due to proinflationary surge on Ukraine's war and Arab-Israel conflict, leading to a prolonged bear market within next twelve months, up to March quarter in the year 2023.
These examples highlight the pattern’s association with extreme volatility, but its predictive power is inconsistent. For instance, the 2022 death cross in the S&P 500—its first in two years—occurred amid Fed rate hikes and geopolitical tensions, yet the market stabilized within weeks rather than entering a prolonged downturn.
Perspectives on Reliability and Use Cases
While the death cross reflects deteriorating short-term momentum, its utility depends on context:
Lagging Nature: As a lagging indicator, it confirms existing trends rather than forecasting new ones. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day often occurs after prices have already declined.
False Signals: Post-2020 data shows the S&P 500 gained an average of 6.3% one year after a death cross, with Nasdaq Composite returns doubling typical averages six months post-cross.
Combined Analysis: Traders pair it with metrics like trading volume or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to validate signals. Higher selling volume during a death cross strengthens its bearish case.
Strategic Implications for Investors
For market participants, the death cross serves as a cautionary tool rather than a standalone sell signal:
Short-Term Traders: May use it to hedge long positions or initiate short bets, particularly if corroborated by weakening fundamentals.
Long-Term Investors: Often treat it as a reminder to reassess portfolio diversification, especially during elevated valuations or macroeconomic uncertainty.
Contrarian Opportunities: Historical rebounds post-death cross—such as the 7.2% Nasdaq gain three months after the signal—suggest potential buying opportunities for risk-tolerant investors.
Fundamental Challenge
Stocks Extend Drop as Powell Sees Economy ‘Moving Away’ From Fed Goals
Powell sees economy ‘moving away’ from job, price goals due to Trump's tariff chainsaw.
Fed well positioned to wait for policy clarity. Strong jobs market depends on price stability, he adds.
Stocks extend declines, bonds rally as Fed chair speaks.
Conclusion
The "Death Cross" remains a contentious yet widely monitored pattern. Its dramatic name and association with past crises amplify its psychological impact, but empirical evidence underscores its role as one of many tools in technical analysis. Investors who contextualize it with broader market data—such as earnings trends, interest rates, and macroeconomic indicators—are better positioned to navigate its signals.
While it may foreshadow turbulence, its historical track record emphasizes resilience, with markets often recovering losses within months of the pattern’s appearance.
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Best wishes,
Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
// Think Big. Risk Less
Surfs up for riskMany analyst's have been calling for this. Record money printing since 2010. what is the flight to safety in the midst of this absurd paper growth? bitcoin? Gold? wristwatches? Get ready to test 2020 levels for the cleanse of middle class hopefuls. Gotta make way for the next generation of dip buyers!
S&P500 - Temporary snap back rally to kill some bears ?Markets are in correction mode as everyone has (hopefully) noticed by now, with the NASDAQ and S&P500 breaching key lows.
Forced selling like we saw on Friday usually gives us a reaction rally that can last a few days.
Prices have already dropped too much already so don't try an be bold now with any agressive shorting, especially if you plan to keep positions overnight!
You have to stay alert and react quickly to be able to profit on short-term setups within this bear market.
Be disciplined, protect your capital, stay active—this is not an investor's market !!!
It That was Just Wave C - Big Puke ComingI had a fair crack at being bullish and it was profitable for a while but last attempt ran my entry levels. We're back to retesting them now but I've ditched all my longs other than super lotto calls.
If might turn out that big W move was just an ABC. That 6% down day was wave 1. The failed new high was wave 2.
If those things are true, I think you're going to see limit down days.
I don't throw that term about loosely. If we're heading into wave 3, at some point limit down days are likely.
Bullish Flag In The SPX/USDWhat's going on Traders? Making money I hope! What if I told you you could make some more $
Yepper! That's right! There is another chance at making some more cash if the flag pattern in SPX plays out.
Measured move; TP-1 5501.6 area.
TP-2 5794 area.
Believe it or not but we likely going higher.
Best Of Luck In All Your Trades.
CHEERS! $$$
A Wolfe Wave? Maybe. Another Win? Definitely. | SPX Analysis 16 What do you call it when you wake up, sip your tea, and realise the market is exactly where you thought it would be?
Answer: another day following the damn plan.
Yesterday’s price action? Snooze city. But tucked away inside that inside day was a lovely little income win, all thanks to those glorious GEX levels we’ve had our eyes glued to for weeks. 5400/5425 was once again the no-go zone. SPX tiptoed up, chickened out, and reversed politely on cue.
While retail traders yawned or second-guessed, we quietly hit our numbers. Again.
And while the surface was calm, beneath the charts... something’s stirring.
---
🎯 "Same Setup. Same Result."
Some traders chase action. We wait for systematic decision-making framework.
While the masses complained about a boring market day, we snagged another payday. The setup was textbook: resistance at 5400/5425, backed by GEX, ADD extremes, and the ol’ "...oh and..." wedge-in-the-making.
Throw in a mechanical bear Tag 'n Turn and we were go for launch.
The overnight futures have started to crack the two-day range. One of the perks of short-dated expirations? You don't need massive moves - just a push in your direction, and the premium does the work for you.
And here's a wildcard for your "...oh and..." notebook:
👀 Possible Wolfe Wave forming. If valid, we could be looking at a gravity slide down to 5000.
Is it the holy grail? Nah. But if it lines up with pulse bars and structure, I’ll be ready.
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GEX Analysis Update
5425 again
🎓 Expert Insight – "Pattern First, Prediction Later"
Common Trading Mistake: Jumping on a trade just because the news made your pulse spike.
Fix It: Let your levels do the talking. GEX, ADD, Tag 'n Turns… the market leaves breadcrumbs. Follow those, not the headlines.
Don’t predict. React with structure.
Trade setups, not emotions.
Repeat winners are born from repeatable processes.
---
🤓 Fun Market Fact
The Wolfe Wave pattern is named after Bill Wolfe and is often misunderstood as some esoteric mystery. But really? It’s just a glorified channel break with attitude.
It projects a reversal target based on converging trendlines, often in five-wave structures. The magic? The final wave usually slams to a specific line, called the EPA/ETA - and can happen quickly if volatility kicks in.
Most people don’t spot it until it’s too late. But if you know what to look for, it becomes a spicy tool in the AntiVestor arsenal. 🐺📉
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece