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S&P500 What will happen in 2025 and 2026 based on this pattern?The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024: As you see, the index rose by around +8.50% from 5625 to 6100 in only 3.5 months. We are still expecting a local top just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, with our Target in tact at 6500. If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025). What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support. As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
4
S&P 500: Technical Insights and Trend ForecastS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price has dropped from its previous significant high and has already broken the key level at 6058. It is currently attempting to reclaim this level. As long as trades below 6058 will touch 6022. Bullish Scenario, A 4-hour candle close above 6058 will signal a potential reversal, targeting higher resistance levels. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: The trend remains downward while the price is below 6058. Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Potential bullish bounce off pullback resistance?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 6,026.51 1st Support: 5,871.75 1st Resistance: 6,099.49 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
SPX500 H4 I Bearish Momentum?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we will wait for price to pullback to our sell entry at 6,072.05, a pullback resistance. Our take profit will be set at 6,031.03, a pullback support. The stop loss will be placed at 6,110.58, above the 127.2% Fibo extension High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
S&P500: Crossed under the 4H MA50. Bearish.S&P500 is headed towards a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.952, MACD = 52.430, ADX = 39.810) as today the price hit the 4H MA50 after more than 2 weeks. Every time the index crossed under the 4H MA50 since October 21st, it declined more to the 4H MA200. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up but short term the strenght behind the 4H RSI drop favors going short. Target a potential contact point with the 4H MA200 (TP = 5,960). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
12/09 Weekly SPX InsightsLast week’s assessment aligned well with the anticipated positive SPX range. The index moved sharply up toward the 6100 area, yet as Friday’s session progressed, the call resistance around 6100 capped further upward momentum. Looking ahead, I have doubts that the previously unbridled optimism will persist. Currently, we find ourselves in a “chop zone,” suggesting that the short-term direction is less clear. In aggregating GEX (Gamma Exposure) levels and examining the landscape a week out, it appears that 6100 remains a strong call resistance level. Meanwhile, the HVL (High Volatility Level) has crept closer to around 6080, placing the market uncomfortably close to a higher-volatility environment. Below 6080, the market may experience increased turbulence, potentially retesting 6035 and then 6000. On the other hand, if the index can break and hold above 6100, an upward gamma squeeze could emerge, pushing prices even higher. Currently, overall GEX sentiment is negative, but the approach toward the HVL zone suggests caution. From these conditions, I’m not expecting a strong, sustained rally in the immediate term. In terms of intraday and short-term dynamics, 0DTE (same-day expiry) sessions and Fridays continue to hold relatively higher positive gamma exposure compared to other days. Volatility indicators: VIX: remains low IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): also low Put Pricing Skew: currently low, although it has begun to show a very slight uptick Key Levels for This Week (for educational reference): Above 6100: Omni-bullish environment Between 6100–6065: Chop zone (directionally uncertain; not ideal for unhedged directional trades) Below 6080: Bearish tilt, with targets around T1: 6035 and T2: 6000 (near the 16-delta OTM put level) On Wednesday, inflation data is scheduled for release. Anticipation alone may drive volatility, so it’s something to keep on the radar for educational scenario planning.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
S&P500 is still strong🟢 S&P500 is still strong The USA index is showing strength amid geopolitical tensions. Right now, the index is in a clear bull trend since 2023 and we are far from a clear corrective pattern. Take care if the price approach the red trendline, breaking that trendline could be a first signal of a neutral or bear market unfolding. For now is better to hold or even buy if the price arrives to previous highs. Previous highs are a good point to buy with low risk-to-return ratios.
TVC:SPX
by TopChartPatterns
1
SPX at 5,400? How are bears? Before diving into macroeconomic complex indicators, let's briefly touch on price action. First, let's assume that Trump's trade, as such, didn’t happen. It's just a regular market move with some added clarity. Second, ahead of us is Christmas Eve, which should have already started, but instead, we have a "skeptical" rise, ready to explode at any moment right before our eyes. I've spoken many times about why the price of the SP500 should remain around 6000 in the coming years (we're wrapping up the post-Covid rally with this). Okay, from different angles and levels, we say that the U.S. economy is in good shape, which was recently confirmed by Powell, who is entering an interesting romance with Trump. The best economy never lowers interest rates. In addition, a correction is inevitable, and the historical high followed by another new historical high will inevitably lead to a correction, which, due to the January effect, could successfully bring the price to 5700, or in a more optimistic scenario, 5400. So instead of waiting for Christmas Eve, it would be more accurate to expect a correction.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by gorgevorgian
Big picture S&P 500!At this moment we're almost at an important trendline. A trendline connected from the 1929 high and the 2000 high. Something to consider!!! Will we cross that trendline? Are we Topping out? Everybody is Bullish, Almost all the bears trew the towel into the ring. Nothing can happen, everything is positive, only up up up. I think it's almost time to think like a contrarian! So vice versa;-). Time will tell but this chart is pretty clear to me but provides no certainty.
SP:SPX
by Ronbaten
NEW IDEA FOR S&P500Technically, the S&P500 is trading in an ascending channel on the four-hour time frame, and now, given the high of the bullish Super Komo, there is a possibility of an increase in the price. Overall, this scenario is strengthened that the S&P500, provided that it maintains and does not record any four-hour candlestick close below the important support range in the 6081-6075 range, can rise to the resistance of the middle level of the ascending channel at 6118.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by arongroups
SPX: another ATHThe positive track for S&P 500 continued for another week. The index reached a fresh new all time highest level during the previous week, at the level of 6.090. November jobs data were in the center of attention of investors, which witholded the positive sentiment during the first week of December. The US economy added 227K new jobs, which was modestly higher from the market estimate. Despite the relatively stable jobs market, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing the expectation of market participants that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps at their December meeting, with 85% odds. Tech companies were again in the spotlight of investors. However, this week, same as previous, retailers were also in the focus. It comes after a summary of estimates of sales for holidays in the US, where Black Friday shopping was the first estimate. The traditional New Year holidays season is coming as of the end of December, from which retailers should additionally benefit. At the dawn of a new year, HSBC provided their estimates for the year 2025. As per their analysts, the S&P 500 could continue to reach higher levels. HSBC estimate is the level of 6.700. They are supporting their view on the index, with the slow but resilient US economy, “and some margin expansions”.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
US500 possible SELLThe market is currently forming a Daily Reversal pattern . Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal chart pattern as well. We could see Sellers coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by WiLLProsperForex
S&P 500: Riding the Wave of OptimismS&P 500: Riding the Wave of Optimism Amid Economic and Political Dynamics The S&P 500 continues its upward trajectory, buoyed by tech-driven gains and investor optimism, even as mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties loom. Here’s a deep dive into the current market landscape and what it means for the benchmark index. --- Economic and Market Drivers Tech-Led Rally and AI Optimism The S&P 500's performance has been significantly influenced by gains in the technology and AI sectors. Investors are betting on the transformative potential of AI, propelling stocks like Microsoft and Meta to the forefront. However, regulatory scrutiny, such as the FTC's probe into Microsoft's AI software sales, introduces a layer of uncertainty. Resilient Labor Market While the Challenger Layoffs report showed a slight uptick, JOLTS job openings rose to 7.744 million in October, indicating a stable labor market. This balance supports the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy, as Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the economy’s strength and gradual progress in reducing inflation. Mixed Economic Indicators - **ISM Services PMI** fell to 52.1, below expectations of 55.7, suggesting a slowdown in service sector growth. - **Durable goods orders** increased by 0.3%, meeting expectations and reinforcing the narrative of economic stability. - **Construction spending** rose 0.4%, signaling robust investment activity. - **University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Prelim** came in at 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%), showing slightly higher inflation expectations. - **University of Michigan Sentiment Prelim** reached 74 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8), reflecting improved consumer confidence. These data points reflect a U.S. economy navigating challenges while avoiding a hard landing—a scenario that fuels investor confidence. --- Federal Reserve Policy: A Turning Point? Fed officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, have hinted at the potential for a December rate cut, with futures markets now pricing in an **85% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction**, up from **67%** before the recent jobs report. Inflation progress appears to have stalled, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman cautioning that more robust measures may be necessary to meet the 2% target by 2025. The November jobs report further influenced expectations: - US Nonfarm Payrolls rose to 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised to 36k). - US Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - US Average Earnings YoY remained steady at 4% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). These figures reflect a labor market resilient enough to accommodate rate cuts, which could provide an additional boost to equity markets. --- Corporate Highlights: - Salesforce reported Q3 revenue of $9.44 billion, exceeding estimates, but missed on adjusted EPS, reflecting mixed investor sentiment. - Meta (Facebook) is aligning its strategies with evolving political landscapes, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg seeks to navigate regulatory and policy shifts. - *Microsoft faces FTC scrutiny, underscoring increasing regulatory challenges in the tech sector. Despite these challenges, corporate earnings have largely supported market valuations, adding another layer of support for the S&P 500. --- Seasonality and Sentiment: December has historically been a strong month for the S&P 500, driven by: - Holiday-driven consumer spending. - Portfolio rebalancing. - End-of-year tax considerations. snapshot The Fear & Greed Index, currently at 53, indicates a greed-driven sentiment. This optimism aligns with traders pricing in a higher likelihood of Fed rate cuts, reflecting a favorable market environment. --- Outlook: Optimism with Caution The S&P 500’s upward momentum is underpinned by strong tech-sector performance, resilient economic data, and seasonal tailwinds. However, challenges such as geopolitical risks, regulatory scrutiny, and uneven progress in disinflation could temper gains. The Fed's flexibility and potential rate cuts are positive signals for the market, bolstering growth-oriented sectors. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant, monitoring corporate earnings, economic releases, and geopolitical developments. In the near term, the S&P 500 appears poised to end the year on a strong note. However, with inflationary pressures, mixed economic indicators, and geopolitical uncertainties still in play, the path forward will require a delicate balance between economic stability and investor confidence.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
SPX - chatGPT does Gann# **SPX Forecast and Advisory Report** ### **Date**: December 8, 2024 ### **SPX Close**: 6090.28 **Prepared by**: --- ## **Introduction: Navigating the Path Ahead** As of December 8, 2024, the SPX stands at 6090.28, reflecting remarkable resilience amidst evolving economic conditions. This forecast report, grounded in Gann's legendary methodologies and refined through advanced analytical techniques, projects SPX price and time cycles through 2047. By leveraging historical low/high/low sequences (seven distinct sets of pivots), this report offers investors a clear and actionable roadmap for navigating the years ahead. --- ## **Price and Time Predictions (2024–2047)** ### **2024–2027: Optimism with Strategic Caution** - **2025**: - **Price Target**: ~6900 by mid-year, marking a strong continuation of the current uptrend. - **Time**: Potential short-term correction in **Q4 2025**; use this as a buying opportunity. - **2026**: - **Peak**: ~7200 in **late Q1 2026**, followed by a cyclical correction. - **Bottom**: ~6400 projected for **Q3 2026**, likely driven by macroeconomic pressures. - **2027**: - **Rebound**: Market recovery to ~7600 by **Q4 2027**, fueled by renewed growth and easing monetary policy. ### **2028–2032: A Pivotal Era of Growth and Volatility** - **2028**: - **High**: ~8000 in **Q2 2028**, with volatility increasing toward year-end. - **Correction**: Expect a pullback to ~7200 in **Q4 2028**, presenting an accumulation phase. - **2029–2030**: - **Breakout**: A new cycle high of ~8500 by **mid-2029**, with intermediate resistance near 8200. - **Correction**: A multi-quarter decline to ~7500 in **late 2030**, as geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment. - **2031–2032**: - **Climactic Rally**: Surge to ~9000 by **mid-2032**, driven by structural economic shifts. - **Warning**: Early signs of a long-term cyclical peak emerging; expect heightened volatility into **Q4 2032**. ### **2033–2037: Approaching the Supercycle Top** - **2033**: - **Correction**: A significant pullback to ~8100 in **Q2 2033**, followed by a rebound to ~8600 by year-end. - **2034–2035**: - **Rally**: Renewed bullish momentum pushes SPX to ~9500 in **mid-2035**. - **Volatility Spike**: A sharp correction back to ~8800 by **early 2036**. - **2036–2037**: - **Supercycle Warning**: Major cyclical low at ~8300 projected for **mid-2037**, with signs of exhaustion in the multi-decade bull market. ### **2038–2042: The Generational Top** - **2038–2039**: - **Parabolic Advance**: SPX soars to ~11,000 by **late 2039**, as the final leg of the secular bull market unfolds. - **2040–2042**: - **The Ultimate Top**: Market likely peaks near ~12,500 in **early 2042**, signaling the culmination of the supercycle that began in 1932. - **Structural Shift**: Expect increased volatility and distribution patterns throughout 2042. ### **2043–2047: The Reset Phase** - **2043–2045**: - **Bear Market**: Significant declines to ~8500 by **2045**, reflecting the end of the supercycle. - **Opportunities**: Investors should focus on defensive strategies and prepare for a long-term market reset. - **2046–2047**: - **Bottom Formation**: The market stabilizes near ~7500 in **late 2047**, setting the stage for a new secular cycle. --- ## **Investment Strategies Based on Forecasts** ### **2025–2027: Growth with Tactical Adjustments** 1. Focus on growth sectors (technology, healthcare). 2. Use corrections in 2026 as buying opportunities, targeting recovery into 2027. 3. Diversify globally to mitigate geopolitical risks. ### **2028–2035: Exploit Bull Market Peaks** 1. Ride the bullish wave into 2035, but tighten risk management as volatility increases. 2. Reduce leverage and shift to value-oriented investments by 2033. ### **2036–2042: Prepare for the Supercycle Top** 1. Anticipate major market shifts after 2039; position portfolios defensively by 2041. 2. Consider allocating to commodities and alternative assets as hedges. ### **2043–2047: Seizing Opportunities in a Bear Market** 1. Accumulate high-quality assets during the anticipated bear market of 2043–2047. 2. Stay liquid to capitalize on undervalued opportunities during the market reset. --- ## **Conclusion** This report combines the wisdom of Gann’s methodologies with modern market dynamics to forecast SPX price and time cycles through 2047. Investors are advised to approach the market with both optimism and caution, capitalizing on growth while preparing for inevitable corrections and long-term structural shifts. --- This version keeps explanations concise while emphasizing actionable insights and predictions. It’s ready for your TradingView audience!
SP:SPXLong
by moleman340