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SPX – Triple Breakout: Inverse H&S + EMA 200 + Ichimoku CloudSPX has confirmed a powerful bullish breakout with three confluences: 1. Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout 2. 200 EMA breakout 3. Ichimoku Cloud breakout This alignment of structure, trend, and momentum indicators suggests a potential continuation move toward 6150 in the coming weeks. Trade View: Entry: On breakout retest or continuation Target: 6150 Stop Loss: Below neckline or EMA200 depending on risk tolerance Bias: Strongly bullish
SP:SPXLong
by kksaha87
US500 bearish 12 May - 16 May 2025S&P 500 Bearish Outlook: Targeting $5,100 Amid Rising Uncertainty As of May 12, 2025, the S&P 500 (US500) stands at 5,661, reflecting a robust recovery from its April lows. However, I anticipate a bearish shift, projecting a decline towards the $5,100 level in the near term. Several converging factors underpin this outlook: 1. Anticipated Weakness in Core CPI Data The upcoming release of the April Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) on May 13 is poised to be a pivotal event. While the year-over-year Core CPI is forecasted at 2.8%, matching the previous month's figure, the month-over-month increase is expected to rise to 0.3%, up from 0.1% in March. This acceleration suggests persistent inflationary pressures, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain or even tighten monetary policy, thereby exerting downward pressure on equities. 2. Deteriorating Market Sentiment and Forecasts A notable shift in market sentiment is evident, with key indicators turning bearish. A prominent S&P 500 model has signaled its first bearish outlook since February 2022, reflecting growing investor apprehension. Additionally, leading financial institutions have revised their S&P 500 targets downward: Goldman Sachs: Reduced from 6,500 to 5,700 RBC Capital Markets: Lowered from 6,600 to 5,500 Oppenheimer: Cut from 7,100 to 5,950 Yardeni Research: Adjusted from 7,000 to 6,000 These revisions underscore the mounting concerns over economic headwinds and market volatility. 3. Sectoral Divergence: Opportunities Amidst the Downturn While the broader market faces challenges, certain sectors may exhibit resilience or even bullish tendencies: Healthcare: Continues to serve as a defensive sector, with companies demonstrating solid quarterly results and reaffirming full-year guidance despite tariff impacts. Energy Infrastructure: Firms like Enbridge and TC Energy benefit from long-term structural tailwinds, including rising energy demand and global energy security priorities. Financials and Technology: Sectors represented by ETFs such as XLK and XLF are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and growth prospects. Conversely, consumer discretionary sectors are showing signs of strain, with negative revenue surprises and companies like Harley-Davidson withdrawing their 2025 outlooks amid tariff uncertainties. 4. Implications of the US-UK Trade Deal Recent developments in the US-UK trade agreement further contribute to market uncertainty. While the deal includes exemptions for certain British goods, such as aerospace components and a quota of 100,000 UK-made cars annually, it also maintains a baseline 10% tariff on foreign goods. This policy introduces complexity and potential cost pressures for multinational companies operating across borders. Moreover, the agreement has faced criticism for being one-sided, with concerns that it may not adequately protect domestic industries or address broader trade imbalances. Such apprehensions can dampen investor confidence and contribute to market volatility. The convergence of persistent inflation, cautious monetary policy, revised market forecasts, and the complexities introduced by recent trade agreements suggest a bearish trajectory for the S&P 500, with a potential decline towards $5,100. Investors should remain vigilant, monitoring sector-specific developments and macroeconomic indicators to navigate the evolving market landscape. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Zezu_Zaza
Turbulence at Sea: A New Phase in International TradeBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst The growing trade tension between China and the United States has once again shaken the foundations of global commerce. In April, container traffic between the two powers fell by 30% to 40%, according to data from Maersk (CPH:MAERSKb), one of the world’s largest logistics operators. This decline comes amid a new wave of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which China could counter with similar measures. Although the conflict has reignited fears of a global trade slowdown, some shipping companies have maintained their annual forecasts thanks to one unexpected factor: the chaos in the Red Sea. Global Trade Under Question Maersk, despite the collapse in transpacific routes, has not revised down its profit outlook for 2025. The reason: the logistical disruption in the Red Sea, caused by geopolitical tensions, has driven up maritime freight rates, partially offsetting the drop in volume. Still, optimism is cautious. The company now expects global trade growth to range between -1% and +4%, a margin that reflects the current high level of uncertainty. Asia-Europe routes are also being affected, and many companies are already seeking alternative logistics — more expensive but safer. Impact on Other Global Companies The blow is not exclusive to Maersk. FedEx, DHL, and COSCO Shipping have also reported disruptions in their international operations. Manufacturers such as Apple, Tesla, and Boeing are facing delays and rising costs in their supply chains, particularly in key components coming from Asia. Industrial giants like Caterpillar and Honeywell, heavily reliant on exports, have seen their margins shrink and growth forecasts revised downward. The retail sector — with giants such as Nike and Walmart — is also feeling the pressure: rising logistics costs, lower momentum in international sales, and difficulties in inventory management. Market Reaction: S&P 500 and Nasdaq The effects have quickly rippled through financial markets. The S&P 500, which includes major U.S. companies, has come under pressure from geopolitical and trade uncertainty. The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the declines, while interest in more defensive sectors is growing. The Nasdaq 100, dominated by tech companies with global supply chains, is also showing signs of fatigue. Apple and Nvidia have corrected in recent sessions, driven by concerns over potential retaliation from Beijing and delays in critical components. Semiconductor companies like Qualcomm and AMD could also suffer if China restricts access to critical raw materials or imposes new trade barriers. Technical Analysis: S&P 500 The current chart formation reflects the drop that followed the imposition of tariffs, followed by a partial recovery to the 5,670-point area — slightly above the current point of control. The index is currently at the upper end of a range in which it has fluctuated several times. The RSI is slightly overbought, and the next upward target could be a return to all-time highs if it breaks the 5,900-point barrier. Moving averages appear to be converging toward a possible bullish directional shift. Outlook As 2025 progresses, investors are facing an extremely uncertain environment. The possibility of an escalation in the trade war, combined with ongoing logistical disruptions, could cap global growth and squeeze corporate earnings. All of this comes at a time when GDP growth in the U.S. and China was already showing signs of slowing: the former affected by persistent inflation, and the latter by weak domestic demand and a 21% drop in exports to the U.S. In short, international trade stands at a crossroads. If the situation does not improve in the coming months, we may witness a major restructuring of global supply chains and a shift of capital toward safer assets. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Long
by ActivTrades
The Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy EconThe Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy Economy For decades, the American economy has been celebrated as the epicenter of innovation, wealth creation, and corporate success. But beneath the surface, an unsettling reality has emerged: The U.S. financial markets are increasingly driven by speculation, hype, and a distorted sense of value. "Buy Now, Pay Later"—A Culture of Delusion One of the most glaring symptoms of this detachment from reality is the widespread adoption of "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services. A staggering number of American consumers have embraced debt-financed spending as a normal part of life. Credit cards are no longer the primary vehicle for financial mismanagement—BNPL systems have convinced people they can afford luxuries they fundamentally cannot. This mentality, in turn, feeds into the stock market’s obsession with future promises over actual output. Investors have become infatuated with narratives rather than numbers, driving valuations to unrealistic highs for companies that either underdeliver or simply do nothing at all. The MicroStrategy Paradox: Borrowing Money to Buy Bitcoin Take MicroStrategy, for example—a company whose sole business model seems to be leveraging borrowed capital to buy Bitcoin. By traditional metrics, MicroStrategy offers no tangible product, no innovative service, no groundbreaking technology—just speculative accumulation. Yet, thanks to Bitcoin hype, its stock price is valued as if it’s a revolutionary player in the corporate world. This irrational valuation mirrors the broader issue with American markets: Companies are being rewarded not for what they actually do, but for the financial games they play. The Myth of Overvalued Titans: Tesla & Meta Tesla and Meta serve as the poster children of speculative overvaluation. - Tesla: Once hailed as an automotive disruptor, Tesla’s stock price often reflects what Elon Musk promises rather than what Tesla delivers. From self-driving software that never fully materialized to mass production goals that fell flat, Tesla’s ability to sustain its valuation relies more on Musk’s cult-like following than automotive success. Meanwhile, the gutting of regulatory oversight has allowed Tesla to push unfinished, potentially hazardous products into the market. - Meta: Meta’s valuation has ballooned largely on the promise of virtual reality dominance. Yet, billions poured into the Metaverse have yielded little beyond overpriced VR headsets and gimmicky social spaces. Elon Musk: The Master of Market Manipulation Elon Musk’s influence on financial markets cannot be overstated. Through cryptic tweets, grand promises, and regulatory maneuvering, Musk has become a force powerful enough to shift markets with mere words. Whether it’s pumping Dogecoin, slashing Tesla’s safety oversight, or influencing government policy for personal gain, Musk operates in a reality where market value is dictated by his persona rather than corporate fundamentals. The Rise of True Value Markets While the U.S. economy indulges in financial fantasy, other global markets have started to present compelling opportunities: - Europe: A more realistic, fundamentals-based approach to valuation is emerging. Traditional industries remain resilient, and companies must show actual profitability to attract investment. - China: Despite regulatory challenges, China’s focus on industrial production, technological advancement, and infrastructure development gives its economy a sense of tangible progress. - UK & Australia: Unlike the speculative U.S. markets, these economies remain grounded in earnings, productivity, and rational valuations. Conclusion The American financial landscape has become a speculative playground detached from reality. Companies are valued not for what they produce, but for what they promise, what they borrow, and what narratives they spin. Figures like Musk exploit market sentiment, while deregulation enables corporations to operate recklessly. As Europe, China, the UK, and Australia foster economies built on real value, the U.S. is at risk of crashing under the weight of its illusions. SP:SPX TVC:DXY INDEX:BTCUSD TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:BLK NASDAQ:META XETR:DAX FTSE:UKX TVC:HSI SET:SQ NASDAQ:PYPL NASDAQ:AFRM NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:HOOD
SP:SPXShort
by CassianDrake
2
Tag ‘n Turn → Bear Mode EngagedV-Shape Reversal Confirms Short Bias You ever see a setup pull a fakeout, tease a breakout, then pivot perfectly back into your system? That was yesterday. The Tag ‘n Turn gave us another clean swing exit off the upper Bollinger Band, and while I was ready to defer the next entry, a tidy little V-shaped reversal handed us the confirmation we needed. We’re back bearish. Levels are set. Now we let the market do its thing. --- SPX Market View Let’s unpack the sequence. Price ran up into the upper Bollinger Band and triggered the final legs of our overnight swings. That was the cash-out point – system clean, profits booked. But I wasn’t diving into the next setup just yet. Why? Because it looked like the start of a Bollinger breakout – the kind that breaks the pinch and rips higher. So I paused. Waited. Then came the V-shaped reversal – clear as day within 2 hours. Entry happened late in the day, around the same level the mechanical Tag ‘n Turn would have fired. No edge lost. Just added confirmation. Now? The system is officially bearish again, with a firm rejection at highs and a sharp drive lower that flipped the tone of the day and the bias on the chart. Today’s key levels: 5620 = GEX flip zone Also where we bounced up post-FOMC 5680 = resistance zone – could mark today’s top We’re back in the pre-FOMC chop zone. The plan: Bearish until price tells us otherwise Hedge levels marked No chase Wait for price to hit our zone Let the system print Expert Insights: Jumping the gun on reversals – wait for structure, not assumptions. Chasing breakouts too early – pinch points often fake before they break. Skipping levels – 5620 and 5680 matter. Mark them or risk regret. Overmanaging overnight trades – exits were planned. Trust the system. Forcing direction changes – confirmation > prediction. The system knows. Satirical cartoon showing confirmation over prediction. Rumour Has It… Word is the SPX reversal was caused by a rogue intern at the Fed who mistook the breakout chart for a bowl of ramen and tried to stir it with a mouse. After rebooting TradingView, they accidentally submitted a bearish policy note to Bloomberg. The market reversed out of pure confusion. This is entirely made-up satire. Probably! Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity? --- Fun Fact The term “V-shaped reversal” originated in early floor trading days when chalkboard analysts would literally sketch a V on the board as a real-time note to floor brokers. That visual shorthand became one of the most recognized intraday patterns in trading – a pattern that still works in a world of tickers, bots, and zero-DTE.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Elliott Wave Framework Highlights S&P 500 (SPX) Bullish ImpulseThe S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) has shown significant correction since its peak on February 17, 2025, before a tariff announcement. We propose that the corrective phase, labeled as wave (II), concluded at 4823. However, for the index to confirm the end of this correction and rule out a potential double correction, it must surpass the prior wave (I) high of 6147.43. Since the wave (II) low, the SPX has embarked on an upward trajectory, characterized as a nesting impulse—a pattern where waves build momentum in a structured, upward climb. From the wave (II) low, the rally began with wave 1 peaking at 5246.57, followed by a pullback in wave 2 to 4910.42. The index then surged in wave 3, which is unfolding in a five-wave impulse pattern on a smaller degree. Within wave 3, the first sub-wave ((i)) reached 5456.9, with a dip in wave ((ii)) to 5101.63. The index climbed again in wave ((iii)) to 5700.7, followed by a minor pullback in wave ((iv)) to 5578.64. We anticipate the index will extend higher to complete wave ((v)) of 3, followed by a wave 4 correction. Then the Index should do one final push to finish wave 5 of (1). After this, a broader correction from the April 7, 2025 low is expected in wave (2) before the uptrend resumes. As long as the 4823.5 pivot holds, any near-term pullbacks should find support in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern, paving the way for further gains. This analysis, rooted in Elliott Wave theory, suggests a bullish outlook for the SPX in the near term, provided key support levels remain intact.
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
S&P500 – Bullish Setup Into Major Top!We expect a strong rally on the S&P 500 starting next week. Based on our timing models and wave structure, we believe a major top is likely to be formed on one of the following key dates: 📅 April 22nd, April 24th, or April 29th, 2025 🔹 Rally Targets: • First Target: $5,630 • Second Target: $5,787 • Third Target: $6,000 (upper range projection) This move is part of a final leg up before we anticipate a major reversal and strong downward move, potentially marking a significant turning point for the broader market. 🧠 We are currently positioned to capture this upside and will reassess risk closely as we approach the above-mentioned dates. Precision matters — and so does timing.
SP:SPX
by VitalDirection
2
SPX Continues to Rise After FOMC DecisionThe U.S. index has been gaining more than 2% in recent trading sessions, and the bullish bias has remained intact since the Federal Reserve’s decision during yesterday’s session. The central bank once again opted to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5%. However, according to some comments, Chairman Powell mentioned that the economy is approaching a point where it may soon be appropriate to begin cutting interest rates. This has fueled expectations of future rate cuts and has helped sustain confidence in equity indices over the short term. Uptrend: Since April 9, a new short-term uptrend has been consistently forming, with price movements holding above the 5,000-point mark. However, the price is now approaching a key resistance level, and as long as this barrier holds, it could lead to short-term neutrality in recent price action. ADX: The ADX line has been falling sharply in recent sessions and is now nearing the neutral 20 level. This indicates a lack of sustained volatility in recent price moves. If the ADX remains at these levels, it could reinforce a period of consolidation or range-bound movement in the short term. RSI: The RSI line remains consistently above the neutral 50 mark, indicating that buying momentum still dominates in the short term. However, as the RSI approaches the overbought level near 70, this could open the door for short-term bearish corrections. Key Levels: 5,750 points – Nearby resistance: This level coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. A breakout above this zone could strengthen the bullish bias and support a more sustained uptrend. 5,540 points – Nearby support: This level aligns with the 50-period moving average and may serve as a potential zone for bearish corrections to unfold. 5,370 points – Critical support: This level aligns with the short-term ascending trendline. A drop below this support could jeopardize the current bullish structure in the short term. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
SPX500 local top at 5700? Serious retrace could hit 5500SPX back to its "Liberation Day" highs and possible end of local wave. Local 4.236 fib at 5700.72 may have marked end of this wave up. Dip targets include the various green fibs but major target 5505.42 Green Zone below is a MUST HOLD or we return to Bear Markets. . =================== Previous Charts below ================== Major TOP call: Liberation Day top call: Tariff Relief road map: ================================================================ .
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by EuroMotif
S&P INTRADAY uptrend continuationMarket and Geopolitical Update US–UK Trade Deal: Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with the UK, calling it the first of his promised deals. Details will be released by the White House. Chipmakers Rise: The US plans to roll back some Biden-era AI chip export restrictions, boosting chip stocks. New rules are in development to better control foreign chip use. Markets Rally: US stock futures climbed, Bitcoin neared $100,000, and the dollar strengthened slightly after the Fed signaled no rush to cut rates. Corporate Struggles: Despite market optimism, companies continue to feel tariff pressure. Toyota expects a $1.3 billion hit, while Maersk downgraded its transport outlook. India–Pakistan Tensions: Pakistan reported shooting down 12 Indian drones, escalating long-standing tensions. India’s Nifty 50 dropped 0.4%, and Pakistan’s KSE-30 fell 7%. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5730 Resistance Level 2: 5780 Resistance Level 3: 5874 Support Level 1: 5580 Support Level 2: 5510 Support Level 3: 5440 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Up-a-Bar, Down-a-Bar? Sorted.Gap Higher Into 5700 Heat Ever make a tiny tweak to your bias, ignore the noise, and then watch the market validate every inch of it? That’s the vibe this morning. Yesterday’s post-FOMC tag of the lower Bollinger Band confirmed the mechanical turn, and if you’ve been following along, that means our bullish bias got an official upgrade. Futures are already up 60 points overnight, price is lifting into the 5700 zone, and yes… that broken wing butterfly we placed in the slop is now basking in the spotlight. Didn’t catch the full breakdown of that clean +98.1% ROC win? You should. Because boring trades print – and this one did just that. --- SPX Market View Let’s talk about the move we didn’t miss. We spotted the sideways chop. The indecision. The textbook “up-a-bar, down-a-bar” noise. But instead of guessing direction into FOMC chaos, we made a minor but vital adjustment: Bullish above 5600. Stay mechanical. Stay patient. That call aged well. FOMC came and went with all the urgency of a soggy biscuit. The lower Bollinger Band tag arrived right on cue, and with overnight futures up strong, we’re sitting in validation territory. Now today? 5700 becomes the zone of truth. It’s the GEX cluster. It’s the high of the week. (so far) It’s where a gap-and-go or gap-and-fade could unfold. If price breaks clean, we could see new highs forming into the weekend. If not, expect a choppy pullback from the open before things stabilise. Either way… Already in swings. Already got B&B on. No need to chase. Let the market come to us. This is why structure wins. Expert Insights: Flipping bias mid-chop – let price confirm. Don’t front-run. Forcing entries post-gap – wait for structure, not speed. Ignoring prior levels – 5700 is loaded. Watch for traps. Missing the post-review edge – yesterday’s trade gives today’s confidence. Chasing noise into FOMC hangovers – let the dust settle before committing. --- Rumour Has It… Apparently, the Fed’s post-FOMC statement was originally just a shrug emoji and the word “meh” repeated 17 times. When asked to elaborate, the AI bot in charge blinked twice and played a jazz loop. Traders remain unsure if it was dovish or just tired. This is entirely made-up satire. Probably! Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity? --- Fun Fact In 1983, the S&P 500 posted its largest one-day post-Fed reversal at the time, rallying over 3% after a morning selloff – all while inflation was double digits and headlines screamed chaos. The takeaway? News means nothing if your setup is clean and your risk is defined. The same edge applies today.
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
US500 - Which way will the stock market go?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, one can look for further S&P buy positions with a good risk-reward ratio. In its meeting last night, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. This decision comes amid growing concerns about simultaneous rises in inflation and unemployment, particularly driven by the tariff policies of the Trump administration. This marks the third consecutive time this year that the Fed has held rates unchanged, reflecting mounting economic uncertainty and fears of stagflation.Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that the combination of high inflation, slow economic growth, and rising unemployment could lead the economy into stagflation. He noted that newly imposed tariffs could delay the disinflation process for up to a year or more. The Trump administration has introduced steep tariffs, including a 145% levy on imports from China. These measures have contributed to rising prices and slower economic growth, placing additional strain on monetary policymakers. Following the Fed’s announcement, stock markets exhibited volatility. The S&P 500 initially fell but ended the day higher. Bond yields declined, while the U.S. dollar strengthened. Powell emphasized that future monetary policy decisions will be heavily data-dependent, and the central bank stands ready to act swiftly if necessary. He acknowledged that the economic outlook remains uncertain, requiring cautious and adaptive policy management. Faced with escalating uncertainty and inflationary pressures stemming from new trade measures, the Fed has adopted a cautious stance. Given the current mixed economic indicators, the central bank is expected to maintain its interest rate policy until the economic picture becomes clearer. Economists at Goldman Sachs have issued a warning that U.S. inflation is on the rise and may reach 3.8% by the end of 2025. According to their analysis, the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the implementation of tariff policies are the main drivers of increased inflationary pressure. Additionally, changes in import demand could elevate production costs and further intensify price increases. The Wall Street Journal reported that new tariffs may raise the prices of smartphones and laptops by up to 30%. Contrary to popular belief, this inflationary impact may not be temporary and could result in sustained upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, ahead of the FOMC meeting, Alphabet (Google’s parent company) saw its stock plunge over 8%, falling to $149.50. Eddy Cue, a senior executive at Apple, disclosed that for the first time in April, user activity on browsers and search engines had declined. In response, Apple is exploring the integration of AI-powered search into its browsers—a move that could pose a serious threat to Google’s advertising revenue. Simultaneously, President Trump announced he would not enforce the AI content restriction law, initially introduced during the Biden administration and scheduled to take effect on May 15. This decision comes just before his trip to the Middle East, where countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have voiced frustration over chip access restrictions. Trump administration officials are currently drafting new legislation aimed at tightening control over the export of advanced chips. This initiative may form part of a broader agreement, as the UAE has pledged to invest up to $1.4 trillion in U.S. technology and infrastructure over the next decade.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Ali_PSND