Crude oil at the center of the stormBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
Today, amid an international outlook full of uncertainty, the oil market stands as a reflection of an economy under stress. In recent weeks, crude oil prices have suffered steep declines that have sent warning signals to investors. However, this fall has been partially offset by a recent stabilization, evidenced by the current futures: $64.67 per barrel for Brent and $61.44 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
Between pessimism and hope
The narrative we are experiencing in the markets is one of a constant struggle between pessimism and hope. The escalating trade war between the United States and China generates concern, while geopolitical uncertainty raises the question of whether these conflicts will have the potential to slow down the global economy to the point of severely impacting energy demand. For the time being, the market seems to be finding some calm at technical support points, like a life preserver in the midst of the storm.
Impact of trade measures
Impact of trade measures
In this context of volatility, the White House has provided some respite by announcing the exemption of tariffs on electronic products, including smartphones and computers. Although this measure does not directly target the oil sector, its impact has been felt throughout the economy, partially alleviating fears of a tariff escalation that could further aggravate the situation. Such one-off interventions revive confidence and help investors focus their attention on the near-term outlook.
Reorganization of expectations and technical indicators
Volatility reached outstanding levels recently, registering a depreciation of -22.63% in a few days, following the communication of new tariffs by President Trump. At that moment, crude oil became a mirror of global uncertainty, where each figure reflected fears and conflicting expectations. After this plunge, a correction took place: the price stabilized around 65.46 dollars, supported by a key support at 62.41 dollars.
Analyzing the chart, the $68.20 area looks like a distant target in the context of the current policy; the bearish pressure indicators remain below that mark, despite the current support showing some weakness. The RSI is in the mid-range after a week of strong selling activity, and at this point we can see that the $58.16 floor could be revisited, which would open the possibility of resuming the path towards the $68.20 target. Should a breakout occur, the next critical zone would be marked by the previous Check Point (POC) around $72.38, in a previously established range between $70.24 and $74.93.
Looking ahead
This story is analyzed with caution, remembering that the future of crude oil remains uncertain. Trade tensions, economic data developments and central bank decisions - especially that of the European Central Bank - remain key determinants of market direction. In an environment where every political decision and every figure counts, the oil story is being written day by day, oscillating between moments of volatility and phases of stability.
Investors are advised to keep a close eye on these elements, as they could mark the next chapter in this complex plot that will undoubtedly remain one of the most fascinating stories of our time.
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