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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-22 : Inside Breakaway CountertrendToday's Inside Breakaway in Countertrend mode suggests the markets may attempt to move downward - away from the recent highs. I believe the SPY/QQQ will move into a sideways/consolidation range over the next 3-5+ trading days before attempting to make any big moves. We have a holiday-shortened trading week next week, and I believe the markets are moving into the Summer doldrums. Overall, I would ask traders to stay cautious of this transition in the markets over the next 5--10+ days and prepare for volatility to increase after June 1st. You all know what I believe is the most likely outcome - a rollover topping pattern followed by a breakdown in price targeting the 525-535 level on the SPY. We'll see what happens going forward. Gold and Silver pullback back overnight which suggests the metals markets were a bit overheated to the upside. I still believe Metals will continue to push higher. BTCUSD is trading up above $111k. Here we go. BTCUSD is moving up into the potential rejection level that I suggested in my 5-20 video as a MASSIVE WARNING setup. This is where we'll see how BTCUSD plays out - if we continue to push higher or if we REJECT and move into a broad downtrend. I didn't expect it to happen only TWO DAYS after my video - but here we are. Time to get muddy and play what price puts in front of us. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
FX:SPX500Short
by BradMatheny
33
Top 10 Rookie Trading Mistakes (And How to Laugh at Your Own)So you’ve just discovered trading. Maybe it started with a Reddit thread. Maybe someone said “trading Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is like printing money.” Or maybe you just liked the name “Shiba Inu” and figured memecoins was a good investment thesis. Either way, welcome. This is where dreams are made, lost, rebought on leverage, and then tweeted about. The markets are ruthless, but also educational — if you’re humble enough to learn and bold enough to laugh when you inevitably light your first $100 on fire by accidentally shorting Apple NASDAQ:AAPL during a breakout. This article is for you. The new trader. The (overconfident?) beginner. Let’s talk about the top 10 rookie trading mistakes — and how to laugh at your own before the market does it for you. 1️⃣ Mistaking Luck for Skill (aka “Call Me Baby Buffett”) Your first trade is a win. Your second is too. Maybe it’s a meme stock . Maybe it’s a hot IPO. Either way, you’re convinced you’ve cracked the matrix. You tell your friends: “I just have a feel for this stuff.” What actually happened: You got lucky in a trending market. And now you're about to go full Titanic on a position you didn’t research, because hey — you're "on a roll." What you can do insead, and probably have a laugh about it years later, is screenshot your account right now in your very early steps. Frame it. Label it: Exhibit A in Emotional Risk Management. 2️⃣ The Revenge Trade: “I’ll Win It Back” You took a loss. A big one. Your first real slap from the market. So what do you do? Walk away? Reflect? Journal it? Nah. You go in twice as hard on the next setup. Same ticker. Same direction. More size. Spoiler alert: It doesn’t end well. That type of spiraling behavior usually happens when you think the market owes you something. It doesn’t. Not even an apology. Imagine explaining your decision to a judge. “Your Honor, I lost money shorting Tesla, so naturally I doubled down five minutes later.” Case dismissed — and that’s why revenge trading is so dangerous . 3️⃣ FOMO FOMO FOMO A green candle pops up on your watchlist. It’s moving. Fast. You missed the breakout but you still click “buy” because you’re not missing this train. You get in. It tops. You hold. It drops. You panic. It rebounds… just after you sell. Classic rookie cycle. Why does this happen? The fear of missing out turns off your brain faster than a margin call. Call it what it is — chasing. Say it out loud like it’s therapy: “Hi, this is Patrick and I like to buy things 10% too late.” Maybe it helps. 4️⃣ “I’m Married to This Trade” It started with a spark. The chart looked good. The RSI whispered sweet nothings. You thought, “This could be the one.” So you bought. Then bought again. And when it dipped harder than your last relationship, you said, “It’s okay, we’re just going through a rough patch.” Before you knew it, you weren’t trading — you were in a toxic relationship with a ticker. You’ve abandoned your edge for emotion. Confirmation bias kicks in, and instead of managing risk, you’re managing denial. You stop analyzing the chart and start defending it like it’s your firstborn. If you’re talking about a stock (or anything else on a chart) the way your friend talks about their ex — “It just needs time, I know it’ll come back” — you’re not trading. You’re coping. 5️⃣ All In, All the Time Risk management? Never heard of that. You found a setup that “can’t fail,” so you went 100% in. On margin. On a Friday. What could go wrong? Answer: Everything. Especially when your trade gaps against you on Monday morning after Trump has said tariffs are changing once again. That’s when you know you’re mistaking conviction for strategy. They’re not the same. 6️⃣ Ignoring the Bigger Picture You nailed the 15-minute chart. Gorgeous breakout. But somehow, you forgot to check the daily — where your “breakout” is just a lower high in a brutal downtrend. Oops. Think about whether you've got tunnel vision. You went along with your short-term bias instead of checking the bigger picture when things are different. What you can do instead, is make a rule: before every trade, zoom out. Literally. Leave no timeframe unexamined (at least up to the daily frame). 7️⃣ Trading Every Day Like It’s the Super Bowl New traders think they have to trade every day. Every single session. Every little move. And when there’s no good setup? They make one up, trying to whip up trendlines to justify their trading. What happens next: Boredom trades. Overtrading. Why it happens: You're addicted to the action, not the outcome. What can you do instead? Write down the number of trades you made last week. Multiply it by the average commission you paid. Now imagine what you could’ve bought instead. And, what could be even better, consider taking a lesson in patience . 8️⃣ Blind Faith in Indicators The RSI is at 18. The MACD just crossed. Stochastic says “maybe.” So you buy. No price action. No trend. Just… vibes and indicators. Result: You become a victim of the “indicator trap” — relying so heavily on these lines you forget to read the actual chart — momentum, market sentiment, broader technicals, and fundamentals. What’s a better approach is to ​​treat your indicators like seasoning, not the main dish. The best trades come from confluence, not wishful thinking dressed up as technical analysis. 9️⃣ The Trading Journal You Never Wrote If you can’t remember why you entered a trade, you’re not at your best. Here’s a pro tip: Keep a trading journal . One that records your thesis, entry, stop, target, and outcome. You know — the boring stuff that makes you better. Why is that important? Journaling builds discipline. Patterns. Self-awareness. It’s never too late to start your journal! 🔟 Expecting to Get Rich Quick This is the big one. The rookie mindset that kills most portfolios: I’m gonna turn $500 into $5,000 in a month. You won’t. Sorry. And even if you do, you won’t keep it. Trading rewards patience, process, and preservation. Not YOLO bets and delusions of grandeur. Try looking at your P&L like a diet. If you expect six-pack abs in a week, you’ll burn out and crash your progress. If you focus on habits? You’ll outlive the hype. 📚 Conclusion: Every Trader Starts Stupid Let’s be clear — all of us have made these mistakes, even the big shots out there that run billion-dollar funds. The only difference between a rookie and a pro is how fast you learn from them. Or better yet — how fast you can laugh at them, document them, and evolve. Because the truth is, the market is the most expensive comedy club on Earth. And every trade is a new punchline. So if you're new, mess up. Take notes. Stay humble. And above all — enjoy the chaos. One day you’ll look back at your Doge CRYPTOCAP:DOGE top-buy with fondness. After all, it’s only a mistake if you didn’t learn. Otherwise, it’s just tuition paid for by your trading account. What’s a mistake we didn’t mention? Share your tips, tricks, mistakes, and lessons in the comment section!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
19
Stocks Have Been in a Bear Market for 25 Years, By This MeasureThe S&P 500 hit a new all-time high in February. However, by one measure it’s been in a bear market all century. Today’s monthly chart shows SP:SPX as a ratio against gold. Using this comparison, equities have underperformed since Bill Clinton was still President in August 2000. It illustrates how stocks languished in the 1970s, before starting an 18-year run against the “barbarous relic” (to borrow from John Maynard Keynes). Then the great equity bubble broke and investors began their first migration back into gold. They subsequently diversified into emerging markets, triggering a secular bear market in U.S. stocks that ended with the subprime crisis. The S&P 500 continued lower against bullion until 2011, when the People's Bank of China turned hawkish. A year or two later, stocks entered a new bull market by breaking above their previous high from 2007. That uptrend continued until late 2021, when post-pandemic inflation lifted interest rates. Gold interestingly held its ground as the Federal Reserve tightened policy, an early sign of emerging strength. The next interesting moment was early 2024, when stocks and the yellow metal both broke out to new highs. However, the S&P 500 still made a lower high when expressed as a ratio against gold. Given worries about the U.S. fiscal deficit, inflation and de-dollarization, some investors may wonder whether the trend that began 25 years ago may remain in effect. Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
5
US500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in PlayUS500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in Play US500 is forming a small diamond pattern, but the risk is high since the pattern is still developing and could evolve further. The price shows signs of a decline, but a strong breakout is needed to confirm the movement. Diamond patterns are typically trend continuation setups, but the final direction depends on where the breakout happens. Both scenarios are well explained on the chart PS: The best approach is to wait for the breakout before taking action. THIS SETUP IS VALID ONLY FOR TODAY You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500
by KlejdiCuni
8
Full Bear Break PlansToday we took out our second important support level and have sold off strong under it. We're in a rally as I write this but it's still inside the expected corrective range. We still have not net where I'd expect critical supports to be around 5500 but at this point KI feel we do have enough info to make a forecast of what a crash would probably look like. People always think crash forecasts are hard to make. Top forecasts are hard to make. Accurate forecasts on when a crash break will or will not happen are hard to make. When it comes to the actual swings of a crash when they happen - historically always been very simple to make. If the bull trap low and high is known, the crash levels have always been foreseeable. For example, when this low and high was known in 2007, all the important levels and the low of the 2008 / 2009 move could be mapped out. This isn't an isolated case. It's happened in all previous crashes. If you follow my work you'll have seen me trade important levels in drops / lows many times and it's always based on some derivative of this. If we know the high/low of the bull trap then we can identify the important break level and map out all the levels to the downside that would typically hit. We can know the zones where there's the risk of this and also know early if the bear setup is failing. If SPX was going to make a classic break it'd be quite easy to approximate the classic swings we'd have now. The first continent for this is a wick rejection on the monthly chart, and ideally in the last part of the month. This may be underway now. The selling has to stick with us either going lower or at least holding down - but if things keep going as they have recently we'll have the wick candle. I recently showed how we tend to have the failure of bullish wick candles before a trend break. In that setup we usually see a big bullish wick candle. Often an attempt to rally and rejection so we have opposing wick candles (bull wick is usually bigger) and after this comes a bearish engulfing candle which is bigger than all the candles around it and takes out the wick low. That move would take us to about 4500. And almost certainly be news driven. From here we usually enter into a period of choppy action. It feels bullish and bearish but it's really just going sideways. Often this will end with two big bluffs. First a bluff at being about to break to the downside and then a big spike out of the recent highs. This choppy action would likely go on for a few months in total with a high somewhere around 5000. That'd be the last major bull trap and from there we'd start to head into the crash section. During this section we'd travel as much as the full bear swing from high to the current low had taken but we'd do it in a fraction of the time. Over the space of a couple months we'd make a massive news supported capitulation to under the 2022 low. That'd then complete a 50% drop from the high. Even in extremely bearish setups we tend to get a bounce from around the 50% off the high level and we also tend to get a bounce when we spike out an obvious support zone - so whatever the overall move would be, if and when the 2022 low was spiked out this is around where I'd expect an important low. This is a step continent trade plan. We can define a marker and if it hits then the bias is towards the next marker. The first marker was there would be a monthly wick candle. The following marker would be there is a rejection and close down end of month. Third marker would be a massive bear candle taking out the wick low. Fourth marker would be the "Recovery" being muted and stalling out around 500. If all of those things happen, then the risk of a following breakout becoming a crash event would be high. In theory, we could be about 6 months from a major crash and we could put in a series of specific markers as warning signs along the way. First warning sign is there being no V recovery to this selling and the monthly candle closing with a wick. This post touches on various things that have been explained in far more detail in recent posts. It'd be recommended to read those for full context.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
3
Bear Case Requires Downtrend Action. Strong Bull Bias Otherwise.With the recent breaks the odds are strongly towards 5500 hitting and if that breaks the odds are greatly for far lower hitting but I want to take some time to make sure I am clear on the binary nature of where we are. The market is in a "Might go up, might go down" spot. Probably won't go sideways for long. I think we're probably going to see strong trends coming out of whatever decision is made here. First thing I want to really drill in for my bear friends is a sell off from the 86 means nothing at all. Most of the time this is a bear trap. We have broken the first level it may have bottomed so the bias is strongly towards the next ones hitting but having a strong bear bias at this point in historic SPX setup would have led you into a lot of trouble most of the time. If you fade trends the thing you always have to be worrying about is you've got this "pretty much" right but you're actually one swing too early. Because when that happens, the last swing is always exceptionally strong. Fading trends is hard because if you're wrong it trends against you and if you're 95% right it spikes against you in the most ruthless of ways. What makes this all the worse is that comes off a correction in the trend so you end up with a bigger zone in which you're wrong. For example if we began to rally here there's now about 4% extra you could be wrong while saying we're still inside the last high. Any time you're fading a trend and it's going well you should think of this risk. You have to map in the risk of a 161 head fake. These happen a lot. A common thing in blow offs. If you're right about the reversal after this move the short will be easy - but it's not easy to take if you're short bias into it. Given the broader context of everything, I don't think I favour the 1.61 head-fake being the outcome if we rally. If we rally again then we're seeing prolonged big chart trending action above the macro 4.23 and I've only ever seen trends getting stronger when they can break a 4.23. If the 1.61 breaks we can end up at the 4.23 - which would be a monster move. The instance of a 4.23 hitting from a 50% crash are extremely rare. Every instance of it there has been in indices has led to a massive trend decision. All instances of bubbles tend to have clear changes in their momentum when breaking 4.23 fibs. SPX is already above the 4.23 fib. The bear thesis has it this is a head-fake of that. It needs to be evidenced by a strong rejection of the head-fake. Earlier I mentioned the tendency of 1.61 head-fakes. This was the most recurring big obvious topping signal I found when looking at crashes. We'd usually dummy drop and then make a 1.61 spike out. This is the rule I use to tell a pending false breakout from a breakout. If it breaks the 1.61, I expect it will get at least very close to the 2.20. If it can not break the 1.61, then there's a strong chance it may be topping. Our current top is on the 1.61 hit and we're now into a retest of that. The 1.61 sell off is interesting because if it's a 4.23 reversal we have to be in a head fake above it and if it's a head fake we are looking for a 1.61 spike. These things make the speculative bets into the retest compelling and the pragmatic "What if" planning for a break worth covering. A 1.61 reversal would be expected to be a nasty event. A 1.61 reversal would take out the last low (by definition, it's just a bit pullback otherwise) and it would do this in a strong consistent selling manner. Which would be crash like on this timeframe. But the 1.61 reaction is not in any way prescriptive of a crash at this point. A common pattern is a big pullback from the 1.61 and then when it has been broken again it goes into a strong rally to the following fibs. This can top on a few of the fibs but full extensions in strong trends spike out 4.23. Inside the context of the overall building of the trend what is happening now would be insignificant overall. Even if dropping all the way to 5500. A full expansion of this would agree with the other fibs we had around the 10,000 level. Furthermore, a doubling period off the breakout of a 4.23 I'd consider to be a highly probable outcome. If the bear thesis is wrong here it can be wrong in a way that is irrecoverable. A persist bear will get you slaughtered. The case for a potential bear move here is extremely strong but that does also tend to mean the failure of it would be all the more spectacular. It makes a lot of sense to bet in these zones because there's a high chance you can at least break even on short term reactions and can perhaps make a lot in bigger reversals. It's pragmatic to be aware of what the larger risks of a reversal would be and how the swings in that would likely form. You have to think about these things ahead of time because otherwise it all happens too fast to really have time to think. Impulse decisions are usually bad. I have a high degree of confidence in the fibs being able to map out the important levels. My ability to know what that means ... not so much. I may or may not get it right. What is highly likely to be right based on 100 yrs of swings in SPX is the next major swing will relate to a previous swing in such a way that fib levels make it possible to get a good idea of the major highs/lows of the move. All the ways we can do that from here imply massive moves. If it's not 50% off the high it's 100% from the 4.23 break. How all this relates to where we are at this moment in time is we have to accept the potential of the bear bet being so wrong that even if there's a crash later it comes back to this price - meaning if it doesn't work here- entirely drop it and aggressively trend follow. If the bear bet is right we have to be inside of a 1.61 head fake of a 4.23. If we're inside of a head fake is has to sell off very consistently. We crash back to the break level. Price "Isn't meant" to be above that level and when the brief flurry is over it's nothing but selling. The consistency with which this style of rejection has is uncommon so it was really weird seeing it off the first 1.61 reaction. For the rejection thesis to be valid now the pullback in is we should be in the second trend leg which will complete the return to 4.23. If it's the second trend leg it can't be weaker than the first. The first was extremely consistent. From my perspective that's the bear bet. It's really specific for me at this point. If the bear thesis is going to be good we're inside a 1.61 head fake. The 1.61 is retesting and when it is rejected for a second time we're into a strong downmove to where the false breakout started. What it would take from the prices we currently are to turn me into a hyper raving bull that was discussing different bubble moves that may be about to build up is not a lot at this point. It would take very little to convince me to start to buy all the dips with tight stops and it'd not take all that much longer of that working for me to say it was extremely likely all the implied bear risk was behind us and it's all rockets and emojis for the next two years. I think when it comes to what the next big swings will be in markets it's important to be very objective because it's wild just how easily juxtaposed ideas can make sense. For example, AI. One could make a bulletproof case that we should expect a productivity boom based on AI. Lots of people can do much more. But you can make the inverse forecast that AI will be deflationary. Bringing prices down. Creating job losses. As jobs are lost, less money is spent - especially if things are deflationary because you can buy it cheaper later. Less money being spent is less business income and more jobs lost. Companies that survived would likely main use AI and it's easy to see how all that could end up being bad for markets. There are a lot of things like could go either way like that and have polarised reactions in the market but something related to AI is almost certainly going to happen. If AI advancements don't stall out rapidly they're going to start making real changes in the things happening in the world - this could easily justify a bubble or it could put prices into a race to zero. Then there's weird things like what happens when AIs become more and more of the trading volume - surely that's coming ... right? What will they do? It's something you can again make binary extreme cases for. You could make a case that the AIs would notice patterns of a topping market and start to trade in a way that brought about a crash. Or you could argue AIs might start to engage in some form of reward hacking and the way to optimise success is to drive the market vertical. I don't really see the point in narrative based analysis but if you do a thought experiment where you imagine the market either has crashed or has doubled rapidly it's now easier than it ever has been to find different viable ways you could work backwards to how events complimented that. It's wise to be agnostic and evidence based while we're at such a big decision level because the potential to be wrong big is so great and the likelihood you'll be bluffed into thinking you're right just at the worst moment is so high. Maybe bulls have had that now. But even if we sell and make a new low, this may turn out to be a second leg of a bear trap and be the low- being wrong from there as a bear would be even worse. Runs to new highs could come before a crash. If and when the decision is made it should be easy to make money. The 4.23 break would be far better to make money. The trend lasting over a year. A bear break would be trickier with the ups and downs of a bear market but lucrative for the correct strategies. The important thing is being equally acceptant of either outcome - and also accept the reality that neither of the implied outcomes may happen. Which would be a huge anti-climax for me. Really would. If whatever happens next is vanilla, I'd feel a bit cheated. The 4.23 rejection off a 1.61 spike out would be a very exceptional thing. It should be evidenced by exceptional action. If the bear trend is not persistent, there's a good chance it's not working. Up-trending through the resistance levels would make the bear case indefensible in my opinion and in the event of a typical 4.23 break make being bear bias into the future certain to fail no matter how good you are at it. The down move has a lot of proving it to do yet before it crosses from an expected move in a bullish pullback to a real threat of a trend break. At this point both would look exactly the same - what we see in the coming week is likely to be more telling.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
2
S&P 500 at Key Inflection Zone: Golden Pocket vs. Breakdown RiskPrice is hovering around the 0.618 Fib retracement and the 200-day MA — Bulls' eye 6.5% to ATH, Bears target a -16% drop. Critical decision point ahead. If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg. S&P 500 (SPX) multi-decade chart (2-week time frame), the chart overlays key historical highs, major corrections, and media sentiment headlines—all critical for a macro-technical assessment. Below is an expert-level breakdown integrating price action, moving averages, sentiment analysis, and cyclical behavior. 📊 Macro Technical Assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX) 🟢 Trend Analysis (1973–2025) The chart illustrates a long-term secular uptrend, anchored by consistent support above the 200-period moving average (blue line) and a decades-long upward-sloping trendline (green). Despite several deep corrections (marked in red boxes), the trend has always reverted to and eventually bounced above the 200 MA—a key signal of structural strength. The current price is well above the MA200 but appears extended, similar to other historical peaks (e.g., 2000, 2007, and 2021–2022). 🔻 Historical Bear Market Corrections (Measured from Highs): Year Peak-to-Trough Decline Event 1973–74 -51.9% Oil embargo, stagflation 1987 -37% Black Monday 2000–2002 -49% Dot-com bubble burst 2007–2009 -57% Global Financial Crisis 2020 -35% COVID crash 2022 -27% Fed tightening, inflation spike 2025 (so far) -21% Ongoing correction from all-time high Each correction marked a reversion to or below the MA200, before initiating a fresh long-term leg up. 🧠 Psychological Sentiment Integration (Text Boxes & Headlines) 📰 Headlines & Crowd Sentiment Patterns 2000-2002: Dot-com euphoria followed by collapse—media and public overconfidence. 2007–2008: Financial crisis—major media disbelief in downside risk until it materialized. 2020–2022: Post-COVID rally labeled as “most hated in history” – a contrarian bullish signal. 2025: Present headlines again show skepticism despite all-time highs – echoing 2020 sentiment. 📌 Insight: The presence of bearish headlines at highs often indicates a disbelief rally, which historically results in short-term corrections but long-term gains if fundamentals catch up. 🔄 Current Price Context (2025) Current Pullback: -21% from the recent ATH. Support levels to watch: MA200 (approx. 4,100–4,300 zone) – historically strong buy zone. Trendline support dating back to the 1980s (~4,600). The market is mid-correction, with a structure resembling 2000 or 2022, but not yet as deep. 📉 Bear Market Probability in 2025? The current pullback is less severe than historical bear markets. The media pessimism and overextension from MA200 could still trigger deeper corrections. However, until the trendline and MA200 are broken decisively, this remains a correction in a bull market. 🔎 Key Takeaways ✅ Bullish Long-Term Signals: Decades of higher highs/lows. Strong respect for MA200 as dynamic support. Recurring recoveries after panic-driven declines. ⚠️ Bearish Short-to-Mid-Term Risks: Extended rally with rising skepticism (echoes of 2000/2007). 21% pullback already in place, which could deepen. Failure to hold 4,600–4,300 range may open the door to full bear market correction (30–40%). 🧭 Strategic Outlook Timeframe Bias Reason Short-term (1–3 months) ⚠️ Neutral-to-bearish Ongoing correction phase, sentiment bearish, overextension unwinding Mid-term (6–12 months) 🟡 Cautiously bullish If trendline + MA200 hold, dip-buying opportunity like 2011, 2020 Long-term (1–3 years) ✅ Bullish Structural uptrend intact, secular bull likely to resume here's a technical assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Chart based solely on the image and technical levels shown: 🎯 Chart Summary: Instrument: S&P 500 Index (SPX) Timeframe: Daily (1D) Key Levels: Fibonacci retracements, 200-day MA, support/resistance zones Price Context: Currently in a pullback phase after attempting to reclaim the 2025 high (~6,151.74) 🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown 📏 Fibonacci Retracement Zones: The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the recent swing low (~4,837.88) to the 2025 high (~6,151.74), measuring the key pullback levels. Level Price Interpretation 0.236 ~5,120.12 Minor retracement – early warning 0.382 ~5,302.91 Medium support; possible bounce zone 0.5 ~5,455.40 Key support – equilibrium zone 0.618 ~5,612.28 Golden pocket – strong institutional interest 1.0 ~6,151.74 All-Time High (ATH) resistance The price recently hit resistance near ATH and is pulling back toward the 50%-61.8% retracement zone, which is technically the "golden zone" for potential bullish reversal. 📉 Moving Average – 200-Day MA: The blue line on the chart indicates the 200-day moving average (~5,612). Price is sitting right on this MA, and this is crucial. The 200MA is one of the most respected institutional indicators—a breakdown below it could accelerate selling. If price holds above this level, we may see renewed bullish momentum. ⚖️ Risk/Reward Profile Upside potential: +6.5% toward ATH (~6,151) Downside risk: -16% toward retracement lows (~5,120 and lower) This sets up a skewed risk profile: unless strong buying steps in soon, the downside is significantly larger than the remaining upside. 🧭 Market Sentiment and Probability Scenarios ✅ Bullish Scenario (6.5% Upside): Holding the 200MA + 0.618 Fib (~5,612) confirms this level as dynamic support. This could attract dip buyers and institutional re-entry, pushing toward the ATH. If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg. 🚨 Bearish Scenario (-16% Downside): If price loses the 200MA and falls through Fib 0.5 and 0.382, then a move toward 5,120 or even sub-5,000 becomes likely. Break of structure = short-term trend change. A bearish engulfing candle or momentum rejection will confirm this shift. 🧠 Expert Insight: This setup represents a technical inflection point. The confluence of: Fibonacci golden zone (0.5–0.618), 200-day MA support, and recent ATH rejection ...makes this a critical decision zone for the S&P 500. Traders should watch volume, macro catalysts, and market breadth indicators closely over the next few sessions. If buyers step in here with conviction, a short-term rally is plausible. However, a clean break below these technical levels could open the door for a multi-week correction.
SP:SPXLong
by InsightMarket
1
S&P500: Vanna Snapback is Over – Short Gamma Drift Underway Belo📝 Summary Short gamma regime re-entered after 20Y auction shock. Below 5870, dealers face structural sell pressure from vanna + gamma + charm convergence. Wait for VIX to fall before buying any dip. 📊 Price Levels to Watch 🔺 Upside Breakout Trigger: 5885 → Reclaiming this level flips dealers back toward neutral gamma, opening short-covering squeeze potential toward 5925–5950 🔻 Downside Acceleration Zone: 5870 → Structural pressure zone. Vanna-driven delta hedging intensifies. Below here, the market enters a volatility expansion regime 🧱 Gamma Walls: Call Wall: 5950 Put Walls: 5875 / 5850 / 5800 🔍 Structural Regime Analysis Macro trigger: Last night’s 20Y Treasury auction was weak, triggering a sharp risk-off move. SPX broke 5935 → 5875 in 15 mins, entering short gamma zone (GEX 🔴🔴). Volatility Regime Shift: VIX spiked >20, breaking the downward vol trend that supported recent vanna snapback rallies. This marks the end of volatility compression. Vol expansion regime is in effect. Dealer Hedging Mechanics: Below 5870, Vanna pressure increases sharply as price declines + IV rises. Dealers short puts must delta hedge by selling ES, amplifying downside in a feedback loop. No Dip Buy Until Vol Stabilizes: VIX must fall or implied volatility flatten before any long bias resumes. Until then, treat rebounds as short entries, not long setups. ⚠️ Volatility Metrics Supporting This View GEX: 🔴🔴 (Negative Gamma on both 0DTE and aggregate expiries) IVx 5D Change: +4.04% → Implied volatility rising into the drop PUT$: 85.6% → Option flow heavily defensive (puts > calls) Skew: High, supporting demand for tail risk hedging 🧭 Tactical Strategy Short bias below 5870, scale-in entries on failed intraday bounce attempts First targets: 5850 → 5800 (Put gamma cluster + dealer momentum zone) Invalidate short above 5885 (where short gamma neutralizes) 📌 Final Note We are now inside a third-order Greeks-driven sell zone: Speed ↑, Color ↑, Ultima ↑ → this is a self-reinforcing volatility trap. No long setups are valid until structural vol metrics cool down.
CBOE:SPXShort
by mithril174
2
SHORT The S&P 500 Index: Not A Bear Market, Just A CorrectionWe are about to witness an inception of bearish action. A correction within a correction. After 7-April, the Cryptocurrency market started to recover, but the main Altcoins that were growing were all memecoins, and I wondered, "Why are mainly memecoins growing?" I know that when memecoins grow the market is actually bearish on the bigger picture. I shrugged it off and went LONG. It seems I have an explanation now, this recovery was only a partial recovery or, we are just in front of a classic retrace, a small correction. This means that regardless of how fast and strong it goes the end will result in a higher low, compared to 7-April. This means that the bullish structure will remain intact, but you can't change the fact that strength is not present on this chart. The SPX is going down next. There two main support levels to consider, you decide which one is the one that you should take. My job is to alert you of the event before it happens, great timing and entry prices, you can take care of the rest. Thank you for reading. This is a friendly reminder. Market conditions can always change. Namaste.
SP:SPXShort
by MasterAnanda
1
S&P500 6300 is the minimum short-term Target right now.The S&P500 index (SPX) is extending Friday's rebound on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) following an impressive rally after the April 07 bottom. That is technically the pattern's new Bullish Leg. This quick consolidation technically resembles all 4 short-term pull-backs (blue circles) that took place since April 2023. The minimum % rise on those before they pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again was +10%. As a result, we expect 6300 to be the minimum Target by the end of July, which of course will be an All Time High. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500FULong
by TradingShot
Looking at Examples of 4.23 Breaks If markets continue to make shallow dips and rally higher, or even if there's a big sell off and false break of the lows that makes a V recovery then we're seeing a whole lot of things up-trending above massive inflection points. In this post I want to show you some different examples of what has happened on 4.23 breaks. The 4.23 level is a very high probability level to trade off. Even on an intra day basis this will most often have at least reactions and can have full reversals off it. You can see in the SPX chart that the 2022 top came off the 4.23. When a 4.23 is going to be a reversal level it will often react to the 4.23 spike it out. Come back under and hold a retest. Forming a head and shoulders pattern with 4.23 as the shoulders. That setup when successful is a fatal setup for the trend. When inside the 4.23 head fake you're inside the end of the trend. Interestingly, not only is SPX at this 4.23 level but so are lots of other things. Bitcoin is, for example. BTC is often a good proxy for risk on/off so it's interesting this is at this big decision level along with SPX is interesting. In the 4.23 reversal the rejection of rallies can be so strong and abrupt there's not a chance to do anything during it. You really have to think about it in advance. But if the 4.23 break it's extremely easy to the upside for the foreseeable future. Let's start with looking at the different 4.23 decisions in AAPL over the years. This first one shows how the head fakes can be the end of rallies. This correcting relatively shallow compared to the full risk. Holding the 2.61. From this pullback and 4.23 break AAPL went up 200% without any sizable pullbacks. Advancing to the further swing. In this one AAPL began to go parabolic in the run to the 4.23. Got a bit above it. Crashed back to it. Held retests and then went into a big boom move. Almost every week closed higher in this period which continued until over 100% above the 4.23. We advance the swing again and ... what's the chances? AAPL last top is 4.23 and now we're retesting the 4.23. Now ... there are different things that can happen. But if you were to assume the 4.23 pattern in AAPL continues it'd have to do this. And if you believe that is possible (and it's possible) then the SPX chart in the OP makes a lot of sense, right? Expecting BTC would do this would be obvious if indices made that move. Look at NVDA. To overlook the risks of rejection would be fatal if wrong (this could be a simple head and shoulders like pattern) but viewed through the lens of a 4.23 pullback this would have a hyper bullish forecast to it. Over and over again you can make this case for things doubling without any major pullbacks. Candle after candle up-trends. It would not be a time to be a bear! Here's a look left on NVDA. If you had fibs from the crash range here was the 4.23 decision. We could be somewhere like here in NVDA. These are things you certainly have to respect the risk of as an active shorter of things. It'd not be good. And they're such massive outsized opportunities if they form like this that it'd be insane to not prep for what to do in this. If week after week after week is closing green and we never trade under the last week - a smart trader can build a massive position in that. Think about the positions you could build in these periods where the market never crosses your entry again. And then wait and start to trail stops when it goes parabolic. During this period there will be 10% jumps up and the trend of shallow pullbacks will continue. Carrying a bear bias into this would be bad because although the trend never breaks there a enough pullbacks to mean you can easily end up bearish in the worst rally zones. If betting on things like bull traps/spike outs. These moves above the 4.23 are very common. A sharp doubling of the trend happens above the 4.23 a lot! If SPX is going to break it and have the common reaction - everything is going vertical. There are lots of things that are at the 4.23 zones now and you can add 100% onto the 4.23 and think it's probable it will get to there and head fake over it a bit. 100% should be a fairly "Safe" target for the 4.23 break. More speculative ideas would be to look for things that are currently down a lot and draw a fib from the high to the low of those. If we enter into a mania condition where indices are up every week then we might see mania in the hyper speculative things that were in favour previously. Example; Not think this sort of thing works on doge? We have a current 4.23 top and a drop to the 1.27. That's the full predicted correction off a 4.23. It's not always the bottom - but this is the target for a 4.23 drop. Doge may have completed a full 4.23 cycle and be heading into the next. Absolutely possible. If that were true, this would be set to begin to trend very hard. The consideration has to be what if SPX is here. It'd be fair to say the odds of this are low but how high would they have to be to make it worth considering? People act as if the idea of considering massive downside risk means you're scared to take upside risk. Which isn't the case. If anything, I am advocating for more aggressive upside risk betting on the solid trend continuation with tight trailing stops if the breakout is made. Inside the area where we have most chance of a pullback in an uptrend and a wipe out top in a reversal I'm extremely aware of what those risks might look like, but I won't be "Side lined" in a breakout. It means I don't want to broke if the extreme risk thing happens. Indices could more than double or more than half off the 4.23 decision. We're in a really interesting time. If we break I plan to trade as if we're going to be up and up every week. Only take long setups. Maybe have a few macro short levels along the way but be mainly a perma bull. If we get the consistent buying weeks I'll expect all dips will be bought and the uptrend will turn into a parabolic run, I'll act accordingly. And if we start to get massive 10 - 20% weekly candles somewhere over 10,000, I'll suspect that may be blow off action and start to think about fading. By this time we'll be at the next set of important fib levels and I'll use a very similar form of analysis. If you use any half decent trend strategy with a stop loss you really can't lose money in a typical 4.23 breakout. Even those mindlessly buying with no downside control can run up a lot (although it's questionable if they get to keep it or not). The fact this is a possible outcome for bears if the resistances fail at this level is something I think macro bears should consider, deeply. Because you don't have to "Be wrong" for this to happen. If your thesis this is all a big stinking bubble - your biggest risk isn't you're wrong, it's you're right! And we're inside the bubble. Not at the end of it. Bubbles FREQUENTLY double into their end points. This would be a major opportunity for any who embraced it. I do think seeing this happen would be warning things were going to get ugly later but the money to be made in the 5000 - 10,000 run would be exceptional. Accumulating intra day/week with trailing stops would probably see you hit trailing stops about three times most of them you getting in lower and you could end up making 1.000% for the 100% the market went up - and do this while keeping risk capped low since you're always trailing stops to lock in profit. The opportunity isn't in the price forecast/% as such. It's more in the fact that if it is right it should be evidenced by those periods of extremely consistent trend. These will go on for a long time. Be interrupted. Chop / drop and then resume. The amount you can make in those types of trends if you expect them is off the page. And it'd be easy. There's a few times it'd be tricky and these can be deal with by simply waiting - because later it will be easy. What makes this all the more important to consider for bears I think is the fact that we could say the highest probability way that SPX makes this move is by dumping under the last low to retest the 4.23 first. Which would feel very bearish. Very "I should sell the rip" ish. The move that this would make is one I already have marked in as a warning that we could end up going significantly lower. I have to understand all those conditions could fill and even although it all looks exactly like a bear setup, it's actually a 4.23 retest. Very different things for the next swing. Every major high and low in SPX during the last decade has interacted with the fibs from the 2008 low. They've marked out the highs/lows better than anything else. We're now at the most important one of those. It hit in 2022 and since then we've been inside the suspense period of it. The 4.23 reaction didn't tell us all that much. A 4.23 spike out doesn't tell us all that much. Both of these things happen in the bull and bear moves. But the actual decision after the attempt to break 4.23 matters a lot. Whatever happens here is likely to be the most pivotal decision point so far.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
SPX is overheated, a correction is necessary📉 Market Update: No, It Has Nothing to Do with Trump This move has nothing to do with Trump’s dramatic announcements. The reality is simple: the MACD on the daily chart is overheated, and a healthy correction is needed — likely down to the 5,520 level — before resuming the uptrend. Now, does it surprise anyone that Trump acts like a PR agent for his investors? He always seems to drop “bad news” at the exact moment the charts call for a pullback. My guess? They're shorting right now. 🪙 Bitcoin Stalling CRYPTOCAP:BTC is also losing momentum, and looks like it’s in need of a short-term correction as well. This suggests a week of consolidation ahead for the whole crypto market. But let’s be clear: 🚀 The Bull Market Is Not Over The weekly charts remain very bullish, and this trend could last another 4–6 months. The macro bullish structure for crypto remains intact. However, in TradFi, there are cracks: 🔻 20-year bonds sold at 5.1% — a major recession red flag 💸 Tariffs are putting pressure on global trade 📉 The entire traditional market is starting to de-risk 🔮 What to Expect Short-term correction to ~5,518 (first bottom target) A possible rebound after healthy consolidation A continued uptrend in crypto unless key support breaks I’ll publish a new update when conditions change. 📌 Follow me to stay ahead of the market. And as always: DYOR. #CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoCorrection #BullishTrend #RecessionWarning #TradFi #Altcoins #BTC #MarketUpdate #TrumpEffect #DYOR
SP:SPXShort
by CryptoNikkoid
1
SPX: tariffs, againPrevious week was relatively calm when macro data were in question, however, the peace was interrupted with a new narrative regarding trade tariffs. The US Administration plans to set trade tariffs with the European Union at 50%. The US President recently noted that these tariffs are currently not negotiable. Such a narrative imposed a drop in the value of the US equity markets. The S&P 500 was traded with a negative sentiment during the week, dropping from 5.962 down to 5.802 at Friday's trading session. Another news hit Apple shares, when the US President commented that this company has to pay 25% on all IPhones which are not produced in the US. After this post, shares of Apple dropped by 3% on Friday. Analysts involved in a matter are commenting that the transfer of IPhones production from China to the US would increase the price of IPhones by 25%. On the other hand, the company United States Steel surged by 21% after the US President's announcement of a deal and “partnership” with Japanese Nippon Steel. At this moment analysts are in agreement that the market is set for a sell-off in case of any news related to trade tariffs. The positive sentiment is extremely fragile and this might continue for some time in the future.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Price Action and Technical Analysis says I should BUY S&P 500!!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!! www.tradingview.com
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by Simply-Forex
Bullish continuation?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Pivot: 5,782.52 1st Support: 5,692.37 1st Resistance: 6,138.06 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
1