U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen forum
I’m definitely watching for swing buy setups, but that recent move still looks like a retracement to me. No major levels have been broken and we’re still trading within a range—bearish momentum seems intact. Asia session dragged us down into a double bottom area, which sparked a reaction, but it didn’t feel strong enough to flip the momentum just yet. With Japan set to visit the US to negotiate tariffs, this could also be the last leg down before a potential shift—worth keeping an eye on.

📉 USDJPY Daily Analysis Based on Main Key Levels – 16th April 2025
Daily Current Market Price (DCMP): 🏷️ 142.258
Price context: DCMP trades above immediate supports (142.153–142.534) but below critical resistances (143.531–144.147).
📊 Key Levels Breakdown
Resistance/Sell Zones (Above DCMP)
R1: 🚨 143.531 (Fibonacci 38.2% Resistance)
R2: ⚡ 143.766 (Price Congestion Zone)
R3: 🔥 144.147 (Swing High Confluence)
Support/Buy Zones (Below DCMP)
S1: 🛡️ 142.534 (Dynamic Trendline Support)
S2: 🔄 142.153 (Swing Low Anchor)
S3: 🛑 140.753 (Breakdown Floor)
🔍 Technical Analysis Snapshot
Swing Levels:
Swing High: 151.306 (4H/Daily Ceiling)
Swing Low: 148.174 (4H/Daily Floor)
Fibonacci: 50% retracement at 142.769 aligns with intraday consolidation.
RSI: Neutral at 52 (No bearish/bullish divergence).
MACD: Bearish momentum fading on 4H timeframe.
💡 Intraday Trade Setups
Buy Trade Idea
Entry: 🟢 142.223 (Retest of Weekly Support Cluster)
Stop Loss: 🔴 141.500 (-0.723 | Below S3)
Take Profit 1: 🟡 142.769 (+0.546 | Fibonacci 50% Target)
Take Profit 2: 🟢 143.531 (+1.308 | R1 Breakout)
Sell Trade Idea
Entry: 🔴 144.603 (Retest of Weekly Pivot Resistance)
Stop Loss: 🟢 145.200 (+0.597 | Above R3)
Take Profit 1: 🟡 143.150 (-1.453 | Pivot Reversion)
Take Profit 2: 🔴 142.258 (-2.345 | DCMP Target)
📉 Critical Technical Drivers
Price Action: Close below 142.153 (S2) confirms bearish continuation; breakout above 143.531 (R1) signals bullish reversal.
MACD Crossover: Fading bearish histogram suggests weakening downside momentum.
Fibonacci Alignment: 61.8% extension at 144.603 creates high-probability sell zone.
