USDJPY Poised for Liquidity Grab Ahead of NFP USDJPY is currently undergoing a clear redistribution phase on the 4H chart, having recently broken bullish structure and formed successive lower highs. The first week of July is packed with high-impact economic events from both the US and Japan – most notably speeches from Fed Chair Powell and BOJ Governor Ueda, alongside ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls – all of which could trigger significant volatility and a potential liquidity sweep before a true directional move takes shape.
🎯 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Flow Analysis
✅ A Break of Structure (BOS) has just occurred following a sharp selloff from the 147.8 supply zone – a bearish structure is now clearly established.
⚠️ Change of Character (ChoCH) near the 145.8 level signals potential institutional involvement and short-term redistribution.
💧 Equal Lows (EQL) around 143.0 and 142.2 suggest prime liquidity targets likely to be swept before any genuine bullish intent emerges.
📈 Price is currently retracing toward the 145.85 – 146.00 short-term supply zone, offering a favourable area for short setups if rejection occurs.
🧠 Trade Scenarios (Planned)
🔻 Priority SELL Setups
SELL at 145.851 – 146.000
SL: 146.351
TP1: 145.351 (+50 pips)
TP2: 144.851 (+100 pips)
TP3: 143.851 (+200 pips)
TP4: Open
This is a fresh supply zone formed post-BOS, ideal for potential short entries upon confirmation.
SELL at 147.750 – 147.950
SL: 148.150
TP1: 147.250 (+50 pips)
TP2: 146.750 (+100 pips)
TP3: 145.750 (+200 pips)
TP4: Open
A key higher timeframe supply zone. If price breaks above 146.3 and rallies further, this is where Smart Money may re-enter shorts.
🔺 Potential BUY Setups Post-Liquidity Sweep
BUY at 143.031 – 142.930
SL: 142.731
TP1: 143.531 (+50 pips)
TP2: 144.031 (+100 pips)
TP3: 145.031 (+200 pips)
TP4: Open
This zone aligns with the trendline and EQL – a possible bounce zone if bullish BOS or strong price rejection appears.
BUY at 142.200 – 142.000
SL: 141.800
TP1: 142.700 (+50 pips)
TP2: 143.200 (+100 pips)
TP3: 144.200 (+200 pips)
TP4: Open
A deeper liquidity pool – likely an institutional entry point if price is flushed prior to NFP data.
📅 Key Upcoming Events – USD/JPY Traders Beware
Tuesday (1 July):
🗣️ Speeches from BOJ Gov Ueda and Fed Chair Powell – high-impact catalysts early in the week.
🧾 ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings – insight into the US economy’s momentum.
Wednesday to Thursday (2–3 July):
💼 ADP Employment & Non-Farm Payrolls – major market-moving data to shape USD sentiment.
→ Given the heavy news calendar, it's wise to react to price action at key zones with strong risk management, rather than pre-empt.
