USDJPY_SPT trade ideas
USD/JPY: After Testing 158.07, Ready for a Bearish Move?The analysis of the USD/JPY exchange rate reflects a complex combination of macroeconomic, monetary, and geopolitical factors influencing the pair's performance. During the Asian session on January 3, 2025, USD/JPY dropped toward 157.00, highlighting bearish pressure driven by a deterioration in risk sentiment and weak Chinese PMI data, which increased demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency. Reduced activity due to Japanese holidays amplified exchange rate movements. Nonetheless, Japan’s December manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement to 49.6 from November’s 49.0, although it remained in contraction territory for the sixth consecutive month.
Recent dynamics have been influenced by declining U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield at 4.62% and the 2-year yield at 4.32%, temporarily weakening the U.S. dollar. However, the greenback’s resilience is supported by expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The DXY remains near 108.00, reflecting the dollar's intrinsic strength, further corroborated by solid U.S. economic data and persistently high inflation, with Tokyo's CPI rising to 3.0% year-over-year in December.
In Japan, the government and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintain a cautious stance. The BoJ has emphasized that potential adjustments to monetary policy will depend on wage dynamics and inflation, which is expected to approach the 2% target in 2025. While the minutes of the latest meeting left room for gradual rate hikes, the likelihood of significant actions in the short term appears limited. This strengthens the expectation that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the dollar over the yen in the medium term.
The global geopolitical and macroeconomic context also adds to uncertainty. Recent statements from Japan’s Finance Minister expressing concerns over unilateral and sharp currency market moves suggest potential FX interventions in the event of further yen depreciation. However, such interventions would likely have only a temporary impact, given that structural monetary policy dynamics remain favorable to the dollar.
Investors are closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic events, including U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (January 10, 2025), which could confirm further strengthening of the U.S. labor market, and the U.S. CPI release (January 15, 2025), which will provide insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy trajectory. The BoJ’s monetary policy meeting is another key event, as any signal of monetary normalization could trigger yen strengthening.
In the short term, the pair is expected to remain near current levels, with a potential test of the 158.07 resistance. In the medium term, the trend remains bullish, supported by the interest rate differential and the strength of the U.S. economy. In the long term, however, potential economic reforms in Japan and global monetary policy normalization could reduce the dollar's appeal against the yen, pushing the exchange rate lower.
USDJPY IS STILL INTACT WITH THE UPSIDE DIRECTIONUSDJPY is still intact with the upside direction, forming a retangle chart pattern on a Daily/4H time frames. Looking forward to continuing to the upside as soon as it breaks above the retangle chart pattern, trade save.
USDJPY BUY UPDATE!!!!!1:1 profit has been achieved
Now let's aim for 1:2
Secure half of the profits and let the rest run to full TP
USDJPY BUY!!!!UJ sentimental is bullish today, and early morning it broke out of the London session high. Now, let's take a long position
We first aim for 1:1 the 1:2 after securing some profits
USDJPY LoongBased on the previous setup (shorting the cuurency), I had anticipated that this currency will make a correction before going loong.
The fact that the price has already touched and rebounded on Novembers Monthly high means that the price has formed its lower low.
The price can now be drawn to the order block at 160.3 or buyside liquidity at 161.9
USDJPYWell, we are now at a new year, and my expectations are there will be some retracements to be made on the pair.
Considering that the previous analysis was bullish, I am still anticipating on the same, but we have to fill in some imbalances and inefficiencies on the lower side. I do anticipate that the price might first retract on the lower side to form an LL / wick, which might touch 2023 yearly HH at 152.
Target 152, SL at 157.8
USD/JPY H4 | Falling to multi-swing-low supportUSD/JPY is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 156.07 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 154.30 which is a level that sits under an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 158.03 which is a swing-high-resistance.
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USDJPY Pattern FormationThis pair has started to build a bearish momentum for the past few hours.
I do anticipate that the pair might revisit the 4H FVG and -OB once more before going on a massive bearish run filling in the BISI FVGs and sell side liquidity sweeps that it left.
For the long position, entry at 156.7, Sl at 156.25 and TP at 156.7
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 02, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 157.300 in the early hours of Asian trading on Thursday.Expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for a long time are boosting the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).Markets in Japan are closed for the rest of the week.On Friday, we will be keeping a close eye on the S&P Global US Manufacturing Activity Index for December.
Traders are currently digesting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut rates by a quarter point at its December meeting, which was characterised by a hawkish sentiment. Analysts are anticipating that some of Trump's policy proposals, including tariffs, could potentially lead to higher inflation. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that it is too early to predict this, emphasising that the central bank will proceed with caution regarding further rate cuts.The significant difference in interest rates between the US and Japan is likely to provide a favourable tailwind for the pair in the near term.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated last week that the central bank anticipates the Japanese economy will move closer to achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably this year.The BOJ is scheduled to release its quarterly report on the regional economy next week, which is likely to include an assessment of wage increases across the country. This report may provide insights into the BOJ's subsequent policy decision on 24 January.
Meanwhile, verbal intervention by Japanese authorities may help limit the JPY's losses, with Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato noting on Friday that the official will take appropriate measures against excessive currency fluctuations.
Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 157.000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
USDJPY InsightHello, dear subscribers!
It’s great to see you all here. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit that like button and subscribe!
Key Points
- Japan’s stock market will be closed from January 1 to January 3 for the New Year holidays.
- U.S. Treasury yields are rising due to rebalancing that adjusts the duration of the U.S. Treasury index. This has strengthened the dollar, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to the upper 4.5% range.
- Market analysts expect the dollar to remain strong in early 2025, driven by several of Trump’s initial policy measures. The Fed is anticipated to resume easing policies in the second half of the year.
Major Economic Events
+ January 2: Japan market holiday, U.S. December Manufacturing PMI
+ January 3: U.S. December ISM Manufacturing PMI
USD/JPY Chart Analysis
With the Japanese stock market on holiday and the dollar showing strength, USD/JPY is also on an upward trend. Recently, the pair has consistently tested the 158 level.
If USD/JPY successfully breaks above the 158 level, a further rise toward the 160–161 range is expected. However, if the breakout attempt fails, the pair could retreat to around the 154 level.
While the overall outlook leans bullish, I will quickly revise my strategy should the market shift to a bearish trend.
usd jpy short ideawell last time i ate sushi was not a good exprience, but tonight feels diffrent...
USD/JPYUnderstanding where these levels are can help traders make better decisions about entry and exit points. If the price is approaching a strong resistance level, it might be a good opportunity to take profits or short sell, expecting the trend to reverse. Conversely, if the price approaches a support level, it might be a good buying opportunity, anticipating a bounce.
Incorporating support and resistance effectively into your trading strategy requires careful analysis of the market conditions, considering other factors like market sentiment, upcoming economic events, and overall trends.
USDJPY - It's still far away to take profit, buy and hold it!Hello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trade on what we see the price movement on chart. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading position. This ensures every trading position is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
USDJPY weeklyTHE USDJPY will continue in the bullish part ,the weekly is bearish candle which is expected to be the correction of the weekly bullish candles. On lower timeframe 4hr look for buy position
USDJPYUSDJPY will continue its bullish pattern on dollar sentiment and correction in the region of broken weekly descending trendline wont be bad for long position in line with directional bias which remains bullish.
on the supply roof BOJ( bank of Japan ) monetary policy could turn weekly gains to loss if price approaches the supply zone ,its strategic for Japanese economy to boost export market by lowering yen ,but they usually intervene without notification ,which can change trade dynamics.
USDJPY USDJPY will continue its bullish pattern on dollar sentiment and correction in the region of broken weekly descending trendline wont be bad for long position in line with directional bias which remains bullish.
on the supply roof BOJ( bank of Japan ) monetary policy could turn weekly gains to loss if price approaches the supply zone ,its strategic for Japanese economy to boost export market by lowering yen ,but they usually intervene without notification ,which can change trade dynamics.
USDJPYAS DXY continues its bullish rally into 2025 yen will continue to feel the impact, but on correction the next buy zone will be 154.840-155.130 zone based on our structure.
USD/JPY: What's Changing at Year-End?Hello, dear friends!
As the year comes to a close, USD/JPY has shown significant movement, reversing course and dropping below the 157.00 mark. This late-year shift comes as market participants prepare for midweek closures and reduced activity around the New Year holiday. Despite lighter trading volumes, price action remains dynamic, signaling potential shifts in the trend.
Technically, USD/JPY has failed to maintain its position within the parallel ascending channel, suggesting the emergence of a new trend. A key level to watch now is the immediate support at 156.03. The critical question is whether this support will hold and for how long. Looking at the bigger picture, sustained consolidation below the broken channel could lead to a move toward lower targets, as indicated on the 4-hour chart.
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USDJPY Swing Trading 1hr/4hrSL 156.46
TP1 160.19
TP2 161.67
R:R 1:5
My personal risk management for this trade is 15% of total capital risking 2-4%
Could the price drop from here?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 157.82
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 158.89
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 155.83
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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2024 REVIEW MARKET STOCKS !! AND 2025 PROYECTIONS Why Stock Prices Tend to Rise Over Time
It's easy to get caught up in the ups and downs of the stock market, but zoom out, and you'll see a clear trend: stock prices generally increase over the long term. Here's why:
Economic Growth: As economies grow, so do corporate earnings. Companies expand, innovate, and become more profitable, which naturally pushes stock prices up.
Inflation: Over time, inflation erodes the value of money, but stocks can act as a hedge. As the price level increases, so do the nominal values of stocks.
Dividend Reinvestment: Many companies pay dividends, and when these dividends are reinvested into more shares, it compounds growth. This reinvestment can significantly boost the value of an investment over decades.
Market Sentiment: Optimism about the future can drive stock prices higher. When investors believe companies will do well, they're willing to pay more for stocks today.
Low Interest Rates: In recent decades, low interest rates have made borrowing cheaper for companies, fueling growth, and also made stocks more attractive than low-yield bonds or savings accounts.
Technological Advancements: Innovation leads to new industries and improves efficiency in existing ones, driving up stock values through increased productivity and new market opportunities.
USD/JPY Surges Higher:US Economic Strength Fuels Dollar MomentumThe USD/JPY exchange rate continues its upward trajectory, aligning with our forecast as robust US economic data bolsters the dollar.
The price movement reflects the strong momentum of the USD, with the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report indicating that commercial traders maintain a strong position, while retail investors are riding the wave. Our initial price target is set at 155.050, and beyond that, we anticipate a potential move towards 158.000, where a notable supply zone exists.
Recent US macroeconomic indicators point to significant growth in the fourth quarter. Investor sentiment remains buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts in December. However, the Fed may emphasize the strengthening economic conditions and rising inflation, which could lead to a more hawkish stance in their forward guidance.
Conversely, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate levels during Thursday's meeting. This comes after indications of a possible 25 basis point reduction just a week prior. Dovish comments from BoJ officials suggest that the bank will likely postpone any decisions until January to evaluate how US policies under the Trump administration might affect the Japanese economy.
Today's economic calendar highlights US Retail Sales, which are projected to reflect strong consumer spending. This, combined with positive services activity reported earlier this week, is likely to curtail any downside pressures on the US dollar, at least until the Fed meeting's outcome.
We are optimistic about a continued upward movement in the USD/JPY pair.
Our Initial Forecast:
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