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USD/JPY_SPT - USD/JPY

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USDJPY_SPT trade ideas

Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that line sup with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 151.90 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 151.08 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 153.71 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USDJPYBelow is the fundamental analysis for USD/JPY, structured similarly to the provided model: Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY (February 2025) This analysis examines updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on current economic conditions. 1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy United States • GDP and Economic Growth: • The US economy continues to expand at a robust pace, underpinned by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market. • Inflation: • US inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, which sustains a cautious monetary policy environment. • Fed Monetary Policy: • In the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, balancing efforts to rein in inflation while supporting continued growth. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • A low unemployment rate and steady wage growth reinforce the overall strength of the US labor market. Japan • GDP and Economic Growth: • Japan’s economy has shown modest growth in Q4 2024, facing headwinds from demographic challenges and global economic uncertainties. • Inflation: • Inflation in Japan remains subdued and well below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) target, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures despite various policy measures. • BoJ Monetary Policy: • The BoJ continues to support the economy with an ultra-loose monetary policy, maintaining near-zero or negative interest rates to stimulate growth and counter deflation. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • Japan’s labor market remains stable, though structural issues limit significant wage growth and robust employment expansion. 2. Geopolitical Factors • Global Trade and Economic Uncertainty: • Ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties contribute to market volatility. In periods of uncertainty, the USD often benefits as a safe-haven currency, though the JPY is also traditionally viewed as a safe haven. • US-Japan Economic Relations: • Bilateral economic policies and trade dynamics between the US and Japan can impact the USD/JPY exchange rate, especially during periods of economic policy shifts or trade negotiations. • Risk Sentiment: • Shifts in global risk sentiment may drive fluctuations in USD/JPY as investors move between safe-haven assets, influencing the relative demand for both the USD and the JPY. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – February 11, 2025 Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators): • Long Positions: • Short Positions: • Net Position: • These figures indicate the short-term bias of speculators. A net long position on USD or short on JPY would suggest an expectation of dollar strength in the near term. Commercial Traders (Hedgers): • Typically, these traders hedge their exposures based on longer-term fundamentals. Their positioning may indicate confidence in stability or modest shifts in USD/JPY. Small Traders (Non-Reportable): • Retail positioning can offer insights into broader market sentiment and sometimes serve as a contrarian signal to institutional flows. Note: Specific numbers should be updated with the latest COT data to refine the sentiment analysis. 4. Possible Scenarios for USD/JPY Scenario 1: USD Strength (Bullish for USD/JPY) • Triggers: • Continued robust performance of the US economy with a maintained or slightly hawkish stance by the Fed. • Heightened global uncertainty that drives safe-haven flows preferentially into the USD over the JPY. • Outcome: • USD/JPY could rise, potentially trading above 135. Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement) • Triggers: • Mixed economic signals from both the US and Japan, with steady monetary policies on both sides. • Outcome: • USD/JPY may trade within a narrow range, roughly between 130 and 135. Scenario 3: JPY Strength (Bearish for USD/JPY) • Triggers: • A dovish pivot by the Fed in response to slowing US growth or improved risk sentiment boosting safe-haven demand for the JPY. • Positive economic data from Japan or an escalation in global tensions favoring the yen as a secure asset. • Outcome: • USD/JPY could decline, potentially moving below 130. 5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data Medium-Term Favorable Scenario for USD/JPY: Consolidation with a Potential for Gradual USD Strength Reasons: • The robust performance of the US economy and the Fed’s cautious policy stance support near-term dollar strength. • Japan’s continued accommodative monetary policy and structural challenges limit rapid appreciation of the JPY. • Should global risk sentiment remain volatile, intermittent safe-haven flows could favor the USD over the JPY. Target: • In the coming months, USD/JPY is likely to consolidate within the range of 130 to 135, with potential upward movement toward 135 if US economic data continues to outperform expectations. 6. Disclaimer This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses incurred from the use of this analysis are solely the responsibility of the investor. If you have any further questions or need additional insights, feel free to ask!
by SkylimitBreakPoint
USDJPY selling pressure continues, The Week Ahead 17th Feb 25The USDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 155.50, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 155.50 level could target the downside support at 152.76 followed by 151.50 and 150.90 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 155.50 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 156.00 resistance level followed by 156.74 and 157.70. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
CPI Data & Trend Rejection – Precision Trading on USDJPY🚀 High-Impact CPI Data Moves Markets – Smart Traders Win! 🚀 This trade was executed with precision using a clear downtrend, key rejection zone, and market reaction to CPI data. Combining technical confluence with fundamental catalysts, we secured a solid 1:5 RR setup. 📉 Expert analysis confirms trend strength after inflation data! ✅ Strong break of the downward trend – Clear technical confirmation of bearish momentum. ✅ CPI impact on the markets – High volatility creates golden opportunities! 🔍 Technical indicators confirmed the entry from the rejection zone (AOI). ✅ Price reacted perfectly to the analysis, securing a solid 1:5 RR! 📢 This is the power of combining technical and fundamental analysis – trading smart, not random! 💬 Drop your analysis in the comments & follow for more top-tier setups! 🚀📉 #Forex #GoldTrading #USDJPY #CPI #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #FinancialMarkets #SmartTrading
Education
by hamidTrader21
Japanese yen roller-coaster ride continuesThe Japanese yen continues to take investors and traders on a roller-coaster ride. After climbing 1.2% on Wednesday, USD/JPY gave almost all of those gains on Thursday, declining 1.05%. The yen has taken a breather today and is trading at 152.63 in the European session, down 0.19% on the day. Producer prices in Japan climbed 4.2% y/y in January, up from an upwardly revised 3.9% in December and above the market estimate of 4.0%.  PPI accelerated for a fifth consecutive month and posted its highest level since May 2023.  The gain was driven by higher food prices.  Monthly, PPI eased to 0.3%, down from 0.4% in December and in line with the market estimate. The hotter-than-expected PPI report reflects persistent inflationary pressures and follows the core CPI reading for December, which hit 3%, its highest annual level in 16 months.  With inflation moving higher, expectations are growing that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further in the near term. The Bank has signaled that it will raise rates if wage growth increases and keeps inflation sustainable at the BoJ's 2% target.  In anticipation of higher interest rates, Japan's 10-year bond yields have been rising and are close to a 15-year high. In the US, the PPI release showed little change in January.  PPI rose 0.4% m/m, after an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in December.  This was higher than the market estimate of 0.3%.  Annually, PPI rose 3.5%, after an upwardly revised 3.5% gain in December. The US wraps up the week with the January retail sales report.  The markets are bracing for a contraction, with a market estimate of -0.1%, after the 0.4% gain in December.  Annually, retail sales are expected to dip to 3.7%, after a 3.9% gain in December. USD/JPY is testing support at 152.73.  Below, there is support at 152.29 153.00 and 153.44 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USDJPY downtrend continues capped by resistance at 155.50 The USDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 155.50, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 155.50 level could target the downside support at 152.76 followed by 151.50 and 150.90 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 155.50 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 156.00 resistance level followed by 156.74 and 157.70. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USDJPY CHART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CONFIRM TARGET WIN USD/JPY Chart Technical Analysis: TARGET WIN! Congratulations on a successful trade! Your technical analysis skills and market insight have paid off, and you've reached your target on the USD/JPY chart! Take a moment to review your strategy and analyze what worked well. This will help you refine your approach and achieve even more success in your future trades! What's your next move? Are you setting new targets, adjusting your strategy, or taking a break?
Short
by DavidHills110
Yen Rallies as Trump Delays TariffsThe Japanese yen traded around 153 per dollar on Friday, following a 1% gain in the previous session. The yen strengthened as the dollar retreated sharply after President Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs, easing concerns over escalating trade tensions. The latest US PPI report also hinted that core PCE inflation, the Fed’s key metric due later this month, could come in lower than expected. Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that Japan would respond appropriately to any US reciprocal tariffs, while the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance continued to support the yen. Although uncertainty remains about a potential rate hike in March, the central bank is widely expected to introduce further increases later this year. Technically, 154.90 is the key resistance level, with further targets at 156.00 and 157.00. On the downside, 151.90 is the first major support, followed by 151.25 and 149.20 if the pair moves lower.
by ChartMage
USDJPY M15 | Bullish Bounce OffBased on the M15 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 152.70, a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 153.27, an overlap resistance. The stop loss is placed at 152.26, below a multi-swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM