USD/JPY - POTENTIAL BIG SHORT!How I see it:
3 x Rejections on Key resistance on 1D TF.
Key resistance @ 148.639
"SHORT" Targets -
TP 1 = 144.530
TP 2 = 140.247
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
USDJPY_SPT trade ideas
USDJPYYes, USD/JPY is following a strong downtrend, respecting the descending trendline. The break of the 148.000 support confirms further downside momentum. If sellers maintain control, the next key level to watch is 146.000, which aligns with previous demand zones and potential psychological support.
Keep an eye on fundamental factors like U.S. Treasury yields, BOJ interventions, and upcoming economic data, as they can influence the speed of the decline.
Are you looking to take a short trade on this move?
USDJPY D1The pair is in a bear structure from janaury 25th, break down a D1 Zone that now become a resistance zone. I woul not look for long entries for the moment.
Usdjpy Usdjpy I got a lot of messages if we are still on this trade yes de market is still much bearish so we are still holding a sell till sl or tp
Long USDJPY - Indicators Read BullishThe two indicators on this chart make for very well buy and sell signals. At the moment, it's reading a buy for USDJPY which is very interesting as I've recently made a post about being long the USDJPY with the aniticiaption that price will trade to 160 over the next quarter.
USDJPY WEEKEND ANALYSIS TECHNICAL SUMMARY
1D- We observed a CHoCH after price surpassed 148.683 price level. Currently the pair is in a retracement to the upside before it can continue falling possibly to 144.569 price level
4H- 15MIN: Price is uptrending. As the market opens, I am looking for the price to fall to 147.986 before continuing to rise and break the 149.158 price level.
Lastly,
1.Beware of high impact news before considering taking any position
2. Do your own analysis before making any decision
3. Use proper risk management
4. Losses/wins don't define you, consistency does.
5. Your comments will be highly valued
USD/JPY Trend in Upcoming Trading Session - Bearish?๐๐๐ USD/JPY news:
๐The latest US CPI report shows that headline inflation rose by 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9% and slower than Januaryโs 3% increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, eased to 3.1% from the previous 3.3%, while economists had anticipated a moderate slowdown to 3.2%. On a monthly basis, both headline and core inflation rose by 0.2%, falling short of the forecasted 0.3% increase.
๐With inflationary pressures cooling, traders are expected to increase their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that the central bank's restrictive policy stance will not persist for long if the labor market weakens unexpectedly or inflation declines more than anticipated.
๐The US Dollar has remained weak in recent weeks, as investors believe that former President Donald Trumpโs tariff policies could slow economic growth, with higher import duties potentially reducing household purchasing power.
๐Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has been underperforming its counterparts despite major Japanese companies agreeing to significant wage increases for the third consecutive year, according to a Reuters report. This could strengthen inflation expectations and raise the likelihood of the Bank of Japan implementing another rate hike this year.
Personal opinion:
๐Based on economic information, it can be seen that USD/JPY will maintain its downward momentum in the coming time.
Technical analysis:
๐Shows signs of price breaking the trend line and touching the pivot point of the Pivot points
RSI (1H) shows signs of reversing down after entering the overbought zone
Plan:
๐ Price Zone Setup:
๐Buy USD/JPY 148.40 โ 148.60
โSL: 1.4340 | โ
TP: 148.00 โ 147.60 โ 147.00
FM wishes you a successful trading day ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market Heist Plan๐Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!๐
Dear Money Makers & Thieves, ๐ค ๐ฐ๐ฑโ๐ค๐ฑโ๐
Based on ๐ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the หหห โ
หหหUSD/JPY "The Gopher"หหห โ
หหห Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. ๐๐ธBook Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.๐ช๐๐
Entry ๐ : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (148.000) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
๐I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss ๐: Thief SL placed at (150.000) swing Trade Basis Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target ๐ฏ: 145.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
๐งฒScalpers, take note ๐ : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ๐ฐ.
๐ฐ๐๏ธFundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Sentimental Outlook:
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend in short term, driven by several key factors.
๐กFundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis evaluates the economic indicators of the United States and Japan, which directly influence the USD/JPY pair.
๐กUnited States Economic Indicators:
GDP growth is forecasted at around 2.0% to 2.5% for 2025, reflecting steady expansion Economic Forecast for the US Economy.
Inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% to 3.0%, with recent data showing stability United States Inflation Rate.
Interest rates are at 4.50%, with expectations of cuts to around 4.0% to 4.25% by the end of 2025, reflecting a dovish shift United States Fed Funds Interest Rate.
Trade balance shows a deficit of $50 billion in January 2025, a persistent challenge but manageable with strong growth United States Balance of Trade.
๐กJapan Economic Indicators:
GDP growth is projected at 1.1% for 2025, with recent Q4 2024 data showing 2.8% annualised growth, indicating recovery Japan's GDP beats forecasts.
Inflation is expected at around 2%, with core inflation robust, driven by wage gains Japan Economic Outlook.
Interest rates are at 0.5%, with expectations to reach 1.0% by the end of 2025, reflecting policy normalization Japan Outlook.
Trade balance shows a deficit, with recent figures at -2759 JPY Billion in January 2025, impacted by import costs Japan Balance of Trade.
The narrowing interest rate differential, with US rates expected to cut and Japan's rates rising, could support JPY strength, though US economic resilience remains a counterforce.
๐กMacroeconomics
Macroeconomics encompasses broader economic factors influencing the pair:
Global GDP growth is projected at 3.0% to 3.3% for 2025, according to recent forecasts, with mixed regional performances World Economic Outlook Update.
Commodity prices are expected to decline by 5% in 2025, with energy prices leading the drop, impacting JPY due to Japan's import reliance Commodity Markets Outlook.
Stock markets show mixed performance, with US indices up 5% YTD and Japanese indices showing recovery, supporting risk-sensitive currencies Global Stock Market Performance.
Bond yields are expected to be range-bound, with the US 10-year Treasury yield possibly around 3.5% to 4.5%, suggesting lower USD appeal 2025 Bond Market Outlook.
๐กGlobal Market Analysis
Global economic conditions play a significant role in currency movements:
Geopolitical events, such as potential tensions, could boost JPY as a safe-haven currency, though no major events are currently noted.
Central bank policies are diverging, with the Fed expected to cut rates and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising rates, narrowing the interest rate differential Central Bank Policies.
Commodity trends, with declining prices, have a muted direct impact, though energy costs affect Japan's inflation.
Stock market performance, with global indices up, suggests risk-on sentiment, potentially supporting USD over JPY Market Performance Analysis.
๐กCOT Data and Positioning
COT data provides insights into large trader positions, with recent reports showing:
For USD/JPY futures, large speculators are likely net long, driven by the interest rate differential and stronger US economic outlook JPY Commitments of Traders.
Positioning shows that institutional traders are cautiously optimistic, with some covering shorts as the price approaches support levels.
Key Insight: Long positions in USD/JPY align with economic fundamentals, suggesting bullish sentiment among speculators.
๐กIntermarket Analysis
Intermarket relationships influence currency valuation:
USD/JPY is positively correlated with US stock markets; with strong US indices, the USD could benefit from risk-on sentiment Intermarket Analysis.
Gold, trading at $1900 per ounce, slightly up, suggests a weaker USD, supporting JPY strength as a safe-haven Gold Price Trends.
Bond yields, with declining US yields, indicate lower USD appeal, potentially boosting JPY/USD Bond Market Insights.
Key Insight: Positive correlations with US stocks suggest USD strength, while gold and bond yields support JPY, creating a mixed dynamic.
๐กQuantitative Analysis
Technical analysis provides insights into price trends:
At 149.000, USD/JPY is near key support at 148.43 (Classic S3), with resistance at 149.02 (Classic R2), based on recent charts USD/JPY Technical Analysis.
Moving averages show a mixed picture, with shorter-term (MA5, MA10) suggesting buy and longer-term (MA50, MA100, MA200) suggesting sell TradingView Analysis.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 45.418, neutral, suggesting potential for a bounce if support holds Technical Indicators Guide.
Key Insight: Technicals suggest a possible downward trend, with sell signals dominating, though support levels could trigger a reversal.
๐กMarket Sentimental Analysis
Market sentiment reflects trader positioning and expectations:
Recent data shows 62% of forex traders long on USD/JPY, with an average price of 154.6568, contrasting with a downward price movement, creating a bearish indicator Forex Sentiment USDJPY.
Bank forecasts predict USD/JPY dropping to 145.00 by year-end, citing Japan's recovery and expected Fed rate cuts Currency Forecasts.
Key Insight: Mixed sentiment, with retail traders long but institutional forecasts bearish, supporting a downward outlook.
๐กNext Trend Move
Combining all factors, the next trend move for USD/JPY is likely downward:
The pair is at a key support level (148.43), and if it breaks, could drop to test lower levels around 145.00.
Potential catalysts include Fed rate cuts and BoJ rate hikes, narrowing the interest rate differential, supporting JPY strength.
Key Insight: The next move favors a downward continuation, with risks of an upward bounce if support holds.
๐กOverall Summary Outlook
The USD/JPY pair, at 149.000 on March 4, 2025, exhibits a bearish outlook. Key drivers include the narrowing US-Japan interest rate differential, with US rates expected to cut to 4.0%-4.25% and Japan's rates rising to 1.0% by year-end, alongside Japan's economic recovery (1.1% GDP growth in 2025). Technical indicators suggest sell signals, supported by mixed market sentiment and declining commodity prices. Risks include strong US economic data maintaining USD dominance or global risk-off sentiment boosting USD. However, the prevailing trend points to potential JPY appreciation in the near term.
๐กFuture Prediction
Trend: Bearish
Details: The pair is likely to see a downward move, testing support at 148.43 and potentially dropping to 145.00 in the next few months, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials and technical sell signals. Risks include stronger-than-expected US data maintaining USD strength, but current indicators suggest a reversal is imminent.
๐กSummary of Key Economic Indicators
Indicator United States (2025 Forecast) Japan (2025 Forecast)
GDP Growth 2.0%-2.5% 1.1%
Inflation Rate 2.5%-3.0% ~2%
Interest Rate 4.0%-4.25% (end of year) 1.0% (end of year)
Trade Balance Deficit ($50 billion, Jan 2025) Deficit (-2759 JPY Billion, Jan 2025)
๐Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
โ ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐ฐ ๐๏ธ ๐ซ๐
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
๐Supporting our robbery plan ๐ฅHit the Boost Button๐ฅ will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐ฐ๐ต. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐๐ช๐คโค๏ธ๐๐
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐ค๐ฑโ๐ค๐ค๐คฉ
SWING USD/JPY BUYThis swing trade highlights key points where additional sell orders might be initiated. Stay tuned for updates, as this trade will extend over several days, weeks, or even months.
This analysis relies on the provided image and should not be considered financial advice. Trading carries risks; it is essential to do your own research and seek guidance from a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
USDJPY Will Explode! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 147.65
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 148.86
My Stop Loss - 147.06
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
โโโโโโโโโโโ
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
#001 Moving Average 0333SGT 13032025lol. I am trying new things again.
It's so tough when you see your positive results getting mixed due to too much action going on.
0334SGT 13032025
2R TP
Under trading is better than overtrading.
Also, only trade when you are already full of natural dopamine such as when you went out to work and feels good due to the good work you done.
You are already filled, you do not need to hope to gain quick doses of dopamine via being right in trading, while dreaming of kicking your bosses or partners ass.
0339SGT 13032025
Entered based on the 15 MInutes Time Frame, I eyeball the SL. Don't be stingy but don't be too generous either.
0342SGT 13032025
USD/JPY Finding Support at Key Fibonacci Level - Will it Hold?USD/JPY pair has been trending lower in a well-defined descending channel, respecting its upper and lower boundaries. Price action recently tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (146.95), where a mild rebound is now taking shape.
Despite this, the 50-day SMA (152.84) and 200-day SMA (152.01) remain above price, acting as resistance levels should a reversal attempt materialize. The MACD remains in negative territory, confirming bearish momentum, while the RSI at 39.79 suggests the pair is approaching oversold conditions but hasn't confirmed a bullish shift yet.
Key Levels to Watch:
๐ Support: 146.95 (Fib 61.8%), 143.71 (Fib 78.6%)
๐ Resistance: 152.00 (200-day SMA), 152.84 (50-day SMA)
A break above the descending channel could suggest a reversal attempt, while continued rejection at the upper trendline favors further downside.
-MW
USDJPY Sell Now.USDJPY Selling setup is based on possible Bearish trend after reaching reversal trend line. 80% of the time Such setups works. Risk should not be taken more than 1% . Cheers :)
USDJPY nicely following cyclical harmonicsUSD/JPY nicely dancing to the tune of cyclical harmonics.
Start of the graph is using Covid low & thereafter 2 cycles showed high correlation to the peak
Bullish bias for USDJPYMy bias is bullish for USDJPY, its currently on a retracement, i am waiting for a test of the yellow zone to take a buy.
"I'm expecting a market go up soon The Japanese yen refers to the national currency of Japan and is abbreviated as JPY. The yen is the third most traded currency in the forex market after the US dollar and euro. It is also commonly used as a reserve currency like the USD, euro, and pound sterling.
USDJPY H4 ShortRemember, successful trading relies on proper risk management and a disciplined approach. Use stop-losses to safeguard your assets and carefully plan each trade. Analysis is the key to making informed decisions. Stay updated and continue refining your strategies!
USDJPY Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USDJPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 148.76
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 147.83
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
โโโโโโโโโโโ
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY Channel Down to make an important decision.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 10 High. During that time it technically got rejection upon every 4H MA100 (green trend-line) contact or close contact into a new Bearish Leg.
Three out of those four Bearish Legs have been -3.16% so even if a rejection does happen at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, you can still be expecting 145.350 as a Target.
If however the 4H RSI Bullish Divergence on Higher Lows prevails and causes the price to break above the Channel Down, we will accept the small loss on the short and go long instead, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 156.000. A lower Target in that scenario can also be Resistance 2 (154.800).
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Increasing chances of bullish volatility in JPYThe fluctuations formed since May 2024 indicate a strengthening of the possibility of upward fluctuations in the currency pair, and in the long term, there is news of price targets in the range of 185 units!
Be careful, we will face numerous upward and downward fluctuations until the desired price target is reached!
Good luck
MJ.REZAEI
Yen Slips Against USD as Tariff Concerns Increase the DollarThe yen fell below 148 per dollar on Friday, reversing gains as trade tensions increased the dollar. Trump reaffirmed plans for reciprocal tariffs starting April 2. Despite this drop, the yen remains near a five-month high, backed by expectations of BOJ rate hikes. Japanese firms agreed to wage increases for a third year, aiming to offset inflation and labor shortages. Higher wages may spur spending and inflation, giving the BOJ room for future hikes. While rates are expected to remain unchanged next week, policymakers may pursue hikes later this year.
Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.โฏ
Fib Power ZoneBacktesting my strategy my next move Japanese Yen has strength and key seller volume In this area
USDJPY 148.600 shortAs a more precise short entry here is my trade that I am going to play today. Please trade carefully. My trade is already active based on the attached analysis.
