Yen stabilizes after BoJ minutes hint at tighter policyThe Japanese yen has rebounded on Tuesday after sliding almost 1% a day earlier. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.11, down 0.39% on the day. The yen weakened to 150.94 in the Asian session, its lowest level since March 3.
The Bank of Japan raised rates at the January meeting for only the third time since the central bank started its tightening cycle in March 2024. At the meeting, the Bank raised rates by a quarter point to 0.5%, its highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis.
At the meeting, the BoJ revised upwards its inflation forecast as members have become more confident that rising wages will keep inflation sustainable close to the Bank's 2% target. The minutes noted that most members agreed that the likelihood of reaching the 2% target was rising.
The minutes reiterated that the BoJ plans to continue to tighten policy, provided that growth and inflation outlooks match the Bank's forecasts. The BoJ has telegraphed that it plans to continue rates but has left investors guessing about a timeline. The most likely dates for the next rate hike are June or July. The BoJ held rates last week, warning of uncertainty in the global outlook, particularly the impact of the new US administration's trade policy. The BoJ is keeping a close eye on the upside risk of inflation, due to the potential of a global trade war as well as rising wages.
Japan released BoJ core inflation, a key inflation indicator, earlier today. The February report came in at 2.2% y/y, unchanged from January and matching the forecast. BoJ core inflation remains at its highest level since March 2024.
USDJPY_SPT trade ideas
USD/JPY 4H Analysis – Potential Bearish RetestThe USD/JPY pair has been in a clear downtrend, trading within a descending channel for an extended period. Recently, price action has broken above the channel, but it is now facing resistance around the 150.35 level.
Retest Zone: The pair is currently retesting the broken trendline, and if it fails to sustain above this level, a rejection could lead to further downside.
Bearish Expectation: If the price fails to reclaim 150.35, a move towards the 147.00 support zone is likely.
Confirmation: A strong bearish candle from this level could indicate a reversal, confirming the downward move.
Traders should watch for price action signals at the retest level before making decisions.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 150.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 150.92
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 148.97
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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USD/JPY Pulls Back After Testing Channel ResistanceUSD/JPY has slipped to 149.67, down 0.66% on the day after stalling near the top of a rising channel. The pair failed to reclaim the 50- and 200-day SMAs, which remain tightly aligned near 151.7, now acting as resistance.
🔺 Price is still inside a short-term rising channel, but today's bearish candle suggests waning momentum.
📉 MACD remains in bearish territory, and while it’s improving, there’s no crossover yet.
📉 RSI at 49.06 hovers at the midpoint, showing a lack of conviction either way.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 151.00–151.75 (confluence of moving averages)
Support: 146.95 (61.8% Fib retracement), then 143.71 (78.6% Fib)
A break below the channel could signal a return to the broader downtrend, while a close above 151.75 would shift the short-term outlook bullish.
-MW
USDJPY Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
USDJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 150.66 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 149.11
Recommended Stop Loss - 151.56
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USD/JPY Trade Setup & Analysis – Bullish Reversal from 200 EMAThe 200 EMA (blue line) at 149.701 acts as a strong support level.
The 30 EMA (red line) at 150.458 represents a short-term trend guide.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Around 150.120 (near the 200 EMA).
Stop Loss: Below 149.496, protecting against downside risk.
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 150.287
TP2: 150.533
TP3: 150.886
Final Target: 151.377
Strategy:
Buy Position: The expectation is for the price to bounce from the 200 EMA and move upwards toward the targets.
Risk-Reward: Favorable, as the trade has multiple profit-taking levels.
USDJPY; Heikin Ashi Trade IdeaOANDA:USDJPY
In this video, I’ll be sharing my analysis of USDJPY, using my unique Heikin Ashi strategy. I’ll walk you through the reasoning behind my trade setup and highlight key areas where I’m anticipating potential opportunities.
I’m always happy to receive any feedback.
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Thank you for watching my videos! 🙏
USD/JPY H4 | Falling to pullback supportUSD/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 149.97 which is a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements.
Stop loss is at 149.10 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 151.17 which is an overlap resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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EUR USD - Bias: Bearish - limit orderBias: Bearish
Market Structure and Reasoning:
The EUR/USD has been in an overall downtrend in recent days, forming successive lower highs and lower lows across multiple timeframes. The 4-hour chart shows a clear bearish momentum with price recently breaking below key support levels. On the 1-hour timeframe, we can observe a series of bearish candles with minimal retracement, indicating strong selling pressure. The 15-minute chart confirms this bearish structure with price trading below previous support zones.
Trading Setup:
The price is currently hovering around the 1.0788 level, which appears to be a weak support that has been tested multiple times. The overall structure suggests potential for continued downside movement.
Entry: 1.0795 (Limit Order)
Look to enter on a retracement to the 1.0795 level, which was previous support and may act as resistance on a retest.
Stop Loss: 1.0830
Place stop loss above the recent swing high, limiting risk to 35 pips.
Take Profit (TP1): 1.0760
First target at the recent low, providing a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Extended Take Profit (TP2): 1.0730
Second target at the psychological level which should provide stronger support.
Order Type: Limit Order
Wait for price to retrace to the entry level rather than chasing the current move.
Alternative Scenario:
If price breaks above 1.0830 with conviction, the bearish bias would be invalidated. In that case, wait for a potential shift in market structure before considering new positions.
USDJPY Buy Setup – Breakout Confirmation & Seasonal TailwindTechnical: USDJPY has broken above a downtrend resistance line after finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 146.95 . This breakout suggests the corrective phase may have ended, signaling potential for further upside. Pullbacks toward 149.70 (a retest of the broken trendline) present an attractive entry opportunity. Upside targets are 152.74 and 157.10 in the short to medium term. The setup is invalidated below 147.97 , with a break below 146.33 negating further bullish expectations.
Fundamental: Commercial selling of the Japanese Yen and renewed dollar purchases indicate a shift favoring USD over JPY, supporting the bullish technical outlook.
Seasonal: Over the past 25 years , USDJPY has risen 76% of the time between March 25 – April 8 , with an average gain of 1.04% .
Trade Idea:
Entry: On pullbacks toward 149.70
Stop Loss: 147.97 (or 146.33 for extended risk management)
Targets: 152.74 and 157.10
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Japan's Tariff Worries and BOJ Rate Hike HintsThe Japanese yen remained weak around 150.7 per dollar on Tuesday, near a three-week low, as the U.S. dollar gained strength. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors raised concerns for Japan’s export-driven economy.
BOJ minutes from January showed officials remain open to future rate hikes depending on wage and inflation trends, with one member suggesting a possible increase to 1% in late fiscal 2025. Still, the BOJ kept rates steady at 0.5% last week, maintaining a cautious stance with global tensions.
Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders BreakdownThis JPY/USD 4-hour chart showcases a Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, a well-known bearish reversal pattern signaling a potential downtrend after an extended bullish run. The breakdown of the neckline support and the trendline breakout are key confirmations of a shift in momentum, making this a high-probability trading setup.
📌 1️⃣ Understanding the Head & Shoulders Pattern
The Head & Shoulders pattern is a classic reversal structure that forms after a prolonged uptrend. It consists of three peaks:
Left Shoulder: The first peak forms as buyers push the price higher, followed by a pullback.
Head: The price rallies again, making a higher peak, but sellers start to gain strength, causing another pullback.
Right Shoulder: A lower high is formed as buying pressure weakens, signaling exhaustion of the uptrend.
This pattern is significant because it suggests that bullish momentum is fading and that a potential trend reversal is underway.
📌 2️⃣ Trendline Breakout – Bearish Confirmation
Before the formation of the Head & Shoulders, the market was in a strong uptrend, supported by a rising trendline (dashed black line).
The price respected this trendline multiple times, acting as dynamic support.
However, after the right shoulder formation, the price broke below the trendline, indicating that selling pressure is increasing.
A trendline breakout after a reversal pattern strengthens the bearish case, increasing the likelihood of further downside movement.
📌 3️⃣ Key Resistance & Support Levels
Understanding the key price levels is essential for determining trade entries, stop-loss placements, and target zones.
📍 Resistance Zone (Stop-Loss Area):
0.006776 is the recent high and a key resistance level where sellers previously stepped in.
If the price reclaims this level, the bearish thesis could be invalidated, making it a logical place to set a stop-loss.
This level also aligns with the Head of the pattern, further reinforcing it as a strong supply zone.
📍 Support Level (Neckline Zone):
The neckline (horizontal support zone) was previously holding as support but has now been broken.
If the price pulls back to this area and rejects it, it could serve as a strong entry point for short trades.
A confirmed retest of the neckline would validate the breakdown, increasing the likelihood of a further decline.
📍 Bearish Target (Profit-Taking Zone):
The price is projected to decline toward 0.006457, which is derived by measuring the height of the Head & Shoulders pattern and projecting it downward.
This level also coincides with historical support, making it a strong take-profit area.
If bearish momentum continues, further downside targets may come into play.
📌 4️⃣ Trading Plan – Execution Strategy
This setup provides a clear structure for planning a high-probability short trade.
✅ Entry Strategy:
Option 1 (Aggressive Entry): Enter a short trade immediately after the breakdown of the neckline.
Option 2 (Conservative Entry): Wait for a retest of the broken neckline as resistance before entering a short position.
🚀 Stop-Loss Placement:
Above 0.006776 (recent resistance & Head of the pattern).
Ensures protection from a potential false breakout.
🎯 Take-Profit Strategy:
First target: 0.006457 (measured move of the pattern).
Extended target: Lower psychological support if momentum continues downward.
📌 5️⃣ Market Sentiment & Additional Considerations
While this technical setup suggests a bearish outlook, traders should also consider:
🔸 Fundamental Factors: Economic data releases, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical events can impact market sentiment.
🔸 Volume Confirmation: A high-volume breakout strengthens the bearish bias, whereas weak volume may indicate a potential fake-out.
🔸 RSI & Momentum Indicators: Checking if the RSI is in overbought territory or showing bearish divergence can provide further confidence in the setup.
🔸 Psychological Levels: Traders should watch for price reactions near key round numbers, as these often act as support/resistance.
📌 6️⃣ Conclusion – Why This Setup is High Probability
This JPY/USD 4H chart presents a well-defined Head & Shoulders pattern, a classic reversal setup that indicates a shift from bullish to bearish momentum. The trendline breakout and neckline breach reinforce the bearish bias, making this a high-probability short trade opportunity.
💡 Key Takeaways:
✅ A confirmed trendline break + H&S pattern indicates a bearish reversal.
✅ Watch for a neckline retest as a potential short entry.
✅ Bearish target: 0.006457 with stop-loss above 0.006776.
✅ Consider fundamental factors & market sentiment for additional confirmation.
🔽 Overall Bias: Bearish 📉
#JPYUSD #ForexTrading #HeadAndShoulders #PriceAction #TradingSetup #TrendReversal
USD/JPY – Key Resistance Tested After Strong RallyThe USD/JPY pair has been in a steady uptrend after finding support near the 147.800 level, leading to a breakout above key levels. The price is currently testing a significant resistance zone around 150.500, where previous rejections occurred.
Key Levels to Watch:
📌 Resistance: 150.500 (current test), 155.500, 156.500
📌 Support: 147.800
If buyers sustain momentum above 150.500, we could see a move toward the 155.500 - 156.500 zone. However, rejection at this level could trigger a pullback toward 147.800 support.
Traders should monitor price action at this level to determine whether a breakout or rejection occurs.
What are your thoughts? Will USD/JPY break higher, or are we due for a pullback? 🚀📉