USD/JPY at a Key Level: Is a New Trend Emerging?USD/JPY is currently in the D1 discount zone and approaching a D1 FVG, where a potential reaction may occur. The price is moving within a downtrend channel for now.
If a reaction happens at this level, we should wait for a channel breakout. A trade opportunity arises either on the breakout retest or immediately after the breakout, confirming bullish momentum and increasing the probability of an upward move.
Risk Management Strategy:
To secure profits and manage risk effectively, consider scaling out at key levels:
• Target 1: Close 25% of the position to secure initial profits.
• Target 2: Close 50% of the position to lock in more gains.
• Target 3: Close 100% of the remaining position for full take profit.
Risk Reward 1.3
Monitoring price action closely at this level is crucial.
USDJPY_SPT trade ideas
USDJPY SHORTsMarket structure bearish DW
Entry at both Weekly and Daily
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 149.000
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 10.23
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 71% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 147.31
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 146.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 148.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Bullish Quarterly Outlook on USDJPY - Read Me :) In this chart I've outlined my price anticipation / forecast for Q2 2025.
Over the next 3-4 months I feel that it's very likely for USDJPY to trade to 160. If you have any fundamentals that could add to this please add under the comment sections.
Disclosure: My price analysis was not primarily based on any fundamentals but instead it's based on a technical view as to where I think price is most likely to trade to based on historic price action. I did do very some research (linked below) which appears to add further confidence to my view.
Morgan Stanley fundamental research on the US dollar, fixed income market and other credit markets: www.morganstanley.com
Based on a quick read on the above article, Morgan Stanley views the dollar to remain strong for reasons explained in the article. Stronger dollar equals higher JPY prices.
Quick note on yields (see the above link as my source). "...., risk premiums are still below long-term averages and are still likely to move higher — the timing and extent of which remain distinctly uncertain. It is very possible that U.S. Treasury yields remain in a broad 4%-5% range in 2025, which, if it did happen, would be a big positive after 2024’s mediocre performance".
Key takeaways for me:
If yields go higher, then the US dollar (DXY) will very likely trade higher and this will therefore result in higher prices for USDJPY.
Let's see how things turn out :)
Diego
USDJPYThis pair has been under pressure because of Mr. Trump, but now it's time to see it rebound toward the top of the harmonic pattern. Today is a good day to start positioning yourself. However, remember that we're looking at a daily chart, which means that time is a factor, so this isn't a trade for over-leveraging.
USDJPY UNFINISHED BUSINESS UPPER SIDE BFR WE GO DOWN AGAIN :)Im waiting this to play out on the 15m time frame
Will buy around 147.44-147.34 area (with good candle BULL Confirmation)
I have 2 Target for this 149.473 and 151.12 (151.12 will be good area to look for SELL)
I will update this once im in
Happy trading :)
USDJPY Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY Is Going Down! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 147.816.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 146.645 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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#USDJPY TRENDLINE BREAKUSDJPY broke through the downward momentum trendline on the 4h chart, however, due to to the unstable market at the moment, it may head a little lower to touch the support zone in the 146.100 area before reversing to the upside - depending on the strength of the US Dollar today.
I will be looking for a confirmation candle close on the 1h chart to enter my long trade and placing my stop-loss just below the support zone.
Remember to not rush into trades as the market is a little volatile and sensitive to economic news!
Yen Supported by BOJ TighteningThe Japanese yen stabilized around 148 per dollar on Wednesday, recovering after two days of declines as a weaker US dollar offset trade conflict concerns. Trump vowed more tariffs after the EU and Canada retaliated against his steel and aluminum duties, escalating tensions.
The yen remained supported by expectations of further BOJ rate hikes, driven by strong wage growth and inflation. Japanese companies approved significant wage increases for the third year, boosting consumer spending and giving the BOJ more flexibility for future hikes.
Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
USDJPY AMD ANALYSIS
WEEKLY
-mitigated a weekly fvg and respected expecting a retracement or correction to weekly buy side liquidity
DAILY
MARCH 12 CANDLE closed through above march 11 high expecting a bullish continuation for the day aligning
with the weekly outlook.
Ltf 1H
I want too see price trades below the 50% range of the 1h possibly purging the eql and testing the 1h order block for a buy at the lower tf 5 or 15mins
USDJPY Rejection from 4H Bearish Engulfing Sell ZoneUSDJPY: Rejection from 4H Bearish Engulfing Sell Zone
The USDJPY pair has encountered a rejection from the bearish engulfing sell zone on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential reversal in the upward momentum.
Key Insights:
- The rejection from the bearish engulfing sell zone suggests a shift in market sentiment, favoring a downside move.
- We anticipate a decline towards the marked black lines, which coincide with key support levels.
Market Analysis:
The 4-hour chart indicates a clear rejection from the sell zone, with the bearish engulfing pattern suggesting a potential trend reversal. With this rejection, we expect sellers to regain control, driving the price towards the marked support levels.
Risk Management:
- Avoid getting stuck on the buy side, as the rejection from the sell zone increases the likelihood of a downside move.
- Consider adjusting stop-loss levels and position sizing to manage potential losses.
Stay informed and adapt to changing market conditions!