USD/JPY Market Structure Update – May 7, 2025📊USD/JPY Market Structure Update – May 7, 2025
🔹Current Price: 143.05
🔹Timeframe: 1H
📌Key Supply Zones (Resistance):
🔴143.549 – Minor LH (Watch for lower-timeframe reaction)
🔴144.187 – M15 Lower High Zone (ideal for scalping shorts)
🔴145.013 – H1 LH Structure
🔴145.656 – Best H1 Selling Area (HTF confluence)
📌Key Demand Zone (Support):
🟢141.932 – H4 Best Buy Area (strong historical reaction zone)
📉Bearish Outlook:
Market structure is currently bearish with price forming lower highs. Sellers should look for rejection patterns at 143.549 or 144.187 with potential downside targets back toward 142.000–141.932.
📈Bullish Scenario:
Only above 145.013 does the bearish structure begin to shift. Until then, rallies into premium zones are short opportunities.
⚡Trading Tip:
✅Enter after confirmation (e.g., M15 BOS or Engulfing)
✅Target HTF demand near 142.000
✅SL above recent LH for clean risk management
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USDJPY_SPT trade ideas
USDJPY Technical Expert Review - 3 May 2025🔮 USDJPY Price Forecast – 1H Timeframe
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Price may bounce from the LPP Inducement + HL (Higher Low) area and push upward.
The first target would be the upper blue LQ Close zone, which is still untouched.
If we observe weakness or an “M-shaped” reaction within that blue zone, a sell setup could be valid (inducement trap).
However, if price breaks and closes above the blue zone, further bullish continuation is expected — possibly toward the higher green liquidity zone around 147+.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If the HL (blue zone) fails and breaks down, forming a new Lower Low (LL),
Then we can expect price to retrace toward the lower green demand zone, around 141.000, which aligns with higher timeframe liquidity and unmitigated demand.
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Place buy limit orders most recent or swing, low level for Pullback entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (138.500) Day/Swing trade basis.
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🏴☠️Target 🎯: 147.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
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USDJPY Long Setup | Bullish Reversal from Value Area🧠 Technical Breakdown
🔹 Volume Profile Analysis
High Volume Node (HVN) around 144.50–145.20 indicates strong price acceptance.
Price is currently sitting on the Point of Control (POC) or near a zone with high historical transaction volume.
Low Volume Area (LVA) just above this level suggests price may move upward swiftly if buyers take control.
🔹 Key Levels
Entry: ~144.55 (current price where long position begins)
Stop Loss: Just below 144.166 (low-volume rejection zone / support)
Take Profit: ~145.183 — previous resistance level, where selling pressure appeared earlier
🔹 Structure
The previous bearish correction may be coming to an end as price stabilizes at a key support cluster.
The "open & close" line marks a significant balance point, with buyers stepping in to defend it.
Formation of potential higher low, suggesting early signs of a bullish reversal.
🛠 Trade Setup
Bias: Bullish
Entry: Current price zone ~144.55
Stop Loss: Below 144.166 support
Target: 145.183 (resistance)
Risk:Reward: Favorable (approx. 1:2)
✅ Confluences for Long Entry
Strong support zone at 144.166
High-volume accumulation zone (Volume Profile POC)
Price holding above prior open/close levels
Bullish rejection wicks forming at the bottom
⚠️ Watch For
A break and close below 144.166 would invalidate this setup.
Volatility from upcoming USD/JPY macroeconomic events — check the calendar.
🧭 Game Plan
If price continues to hold above 144.366–144.50 zone and shows bullish momentum (like bullish engulfing or strong reaction candles), this setup offers a high-probability long with clean invalidation and solid upside.
Loading up on Yen Dollars - USDJPYThis is the 4H chart and I am trading 3 contracts on this pair.
This is going to be a swing trade which may takes some weeks/months to play out. By determining the SL first, you can have a clear idea and know in advance that is how much you are going to LOSE in value terms.
No matter how well your charting or analysis may be, the market may go against you and if that happens, your SL is hit, are you OK, financially ? That means, your 1000 or 500 or 5000 loss - would it be your end of the world? Thus, it is important to put a small fixed amount to do trading and NOT BE GREEDY.
There are so many things you can go LONG/SHORT depending how knowledgable you are with the market. For example, the cutting of the RRR by China this morning along with other stimulus drives the HSI up 2+% but it is now paring down. That means you could see your profits dwindle or worse, turns into a LOSS if you are not watching or preset your SL/profit target. Never be too sure of your chart as market can moves very quickly.
SO, I like swing trade because it is over a longer time frame and once I am ok with the SL, I will go ahead, not adjusting the limits along the week. This defeats the purpose.
By having 3 contracts (you can have 10 or more), it helps to take some profits off the table if halfway you have cold feet, at least you recover some money. Often, the anxiety kicks in not at the beginning but as tension builds up, you start to see your profits rolling one night and the next it is back to zero , that is when your heart starts to beat faster and thoughts racing to tell you to get out or stay calm. This process takes time .
Again, I advocate not having too many positions open as it can be quite challenging for you to manage should something ROCK the market. Just closing your trades fast would make your fingers go numb and not at your call. 3 positions will be just nice and best to diversify.
For me, I like indices , forex and maybe one crypto. You can have a different combination or just concentrate on one.
As usual, trade with spare money that you can afford to lose and NEVER EVER borrow money to trade. Man up, if you lose . Treat it as tuition money and something that you need to pay to learn from your mistakes albeit a costly one. That is why I first started with forex and go for the safest pair - EURUSD .
Best of luck and DYODD
Oversold momentum - retest and continue to increase🔔🔔🔔 USD/JPY news:
➡️The Japanese yen weakened for a second straight day against the stronger U.S. dollar, pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to the 145.70 level during Thursday’s U.S. trading session. Investor confidence was boosted by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who hinted at the announcement of a major trade deal later in the day.
Personal opinion:
➡️ In the short term, USD/JPY will still be bought due to positive news for the USD
➡️ However, USD/JPY is overbought and will have a period of recovery before USD/JPY continues its upward momentum
➡️ Analysis based on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with trend lines to come up with a suitable strategy
Personal plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell USD/JPY 145.85 - 1.46.00
❌SL: 146.35 | ✅TP: 145.40
👉Buy USD/JPY 145.20 - 1.45.00
❌SL: 144.70| ✅TP: 145.90
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.The third chart you uploaded shows the USD/JPY currency pair on the 1-hour timeframe, as displayed on TradingView.
Key observations:
1. Trend Reversal:
The chart shows an initial downtrend (red line) followed by a strong bullish reversal (green line).
The reversal started from a demand zone (gray box), where buyers stepped in and pushed the price up.
2. Bullish Momentum:
The price has moved significantly upwards, breaking through resistance levels.
The current price is around 145.902, and the chart shows a bullish continuation pattern aiming for a target of 146.500.
3. Moving Average Support:
The blue curved line appears to be a moving average (possibly a 50 or 100 period), providing dynamic support during the upward movement.
The chart indicates a strong bullish sentiment, with a clear target of 146.500. The momentum looks robust after the demand zone bounce.
Would you like guidance on managing risk or identifying entry points in this scenario?
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.The chart you shared shows the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen) pair on the 1-hour timeframe from TradingView. Here are the key points:
1. Current Price: The pair is trading at approximately 143.657, showing a positive change of +1.243 (0.87%).
2. Support Zone: There is a highlighted gray box at the lower part, indicating a recent support or demand zone around the 143.292 level.
3. Resistance Level: A blue horizontal line is marked at 144.225, labeled as the target. This suggests that the price might move upwards to this resistance level.
4. Price Action: The green arrow indicates a potential bullish move towards the target, implying a buy signal or a continuation of the upward trend.
5. Technical Analysis: It appears the pair has bounced from the support zone and is gaining momentum toward the resistance.
Would you like a more detailed analysis or interpretation of the trading setup?
Yen rally ends, markets eyes Fed rate decision and BoJ minutesThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Wednesday, after a three-day rally which saw it gain 2% against the US dollar. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.29, up 0.61% on the day.
The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its March meeting on Thursday. At the meeting, the BoJ held the key policy rate at 0.5% in a unanimous vote. Members cautioned that there was uncertainty over tariffs, which the US was expected to announce in April.
Since then, the financial markets have see-sawed in response to President Trump's erratic tariff policy. Japan's export-reliant economy could be hit hard, but Tokyo is already negotiating with the US and hopes to carve out an agreement to cancel or at least mitigate the impact of the tariffs.
The Bank of Japan is walking a tightrope, as it wants to continue to normalize policy and raise rates, but is worried about the uncertainty over the tariffs and the real possibility of a global trade war. Bank policymakers are taking a wait-and-see stance, hoping that US trade policy will become more clear.
The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to maintain rates at today's FOMC meeting. There's little doubt about the decision but investors will be all ears as to the amount of pushback from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, after President Trump has repeatedly pushed him to lower rates.
The markets have priced in a 30% chance of a cut in June, compared to a 63% likelihood just one week ago, according to CME's Fedwatch Tool. We can expect the pricing of a June cut to continue to swing, as the tariff saga continues.
Flight to safety assetsApart from Gold , which I had made a call to go LONG , there are other assets that you can consider as well.
The EURO, SWISS FRANC and YEN are some currencies that are considered as forex safe haven as well. So, in this chart, except for EURUSD is a LONG, the other two pairs, USDJPY and USDCHF is a SHORT (sell US dollars and buy JPY/CHF).
If I have to choose, EURUSD will be the safest pair as its spread is much tighter and less volatile , next is USDCHF and more risky would be USDJPY. Depending on your risk appetite, capital, time frame, each of this pair can add diversification and cushion to your portfolio.
I am currently vested in USDJPY and had closed EURUSD yesterday.
As usual, please DYODD
USDJPY:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Technically speaking, the USD/JPY has been blocked by the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart for three consecutive trading days. The RSI has broken below the neutral level of 50, indicating that the bears are in the dominant position. Fundamentally, the global geopolitical risks have escalated, leading to the inflow of safe-haven funds into the Japanese yen. Moreover, the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance, while the policy direction of the Federal Reserve is unclear. The FOMC meeting will be held this week. In terms of trading operations, one can lightly open a short position near 143.50.
Trading Strategy:
sell@144.500-143.5000
TP:142.5000-141.7500
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USDJPY WILL FLY TO 161 !!HELLO TRADES
As you can see a harmonic pattren on Daily Chart for this pair udsjpy we have a great oppritunity to join the Us Dollar Rally we can see a horizontal Support was tested and and its moving to given Targets chart is simple and easy to ready make a proper research before taking any trade these are only dail based valid targets if not break given Stop loss We need ur Supports and comments Stay Tuned for more update ...
Uj might be reversing- We are at a painfully large demand area.
- Price squeezing and consolidating in a dropping wedge.
- Thursday candle was a bullish harami (indicating a possible u-turn)
- Friday was the Good Friday (Market holiday), so it doesn't count
Let us patiently wait here for the price to either break the wedge or at least it hits the lower border of the wedge to place our first entry. The reversal is imminent provided we do not break the demand area. Patience is the key here.
Once we have a full confirmation to buy we will look further for targets, till then just watch it.
I will update you guys when I place my own entry. Pray hard, trade smart :) and best of luck!
Here is the close up look of the wedge:
Yen Near 146 as Trade Hopes WeighThe yen hovered near 146 per dollar Friday after a 1.6% drop, pressured by weaker safe-haven demand amid improving US-China trade prospects. China is open to talks after repeated U.S. outreach, while Japan and the U.S. wrapped up a second round of bilateral talks, aiming for a June deal. Domestically, Japan’s jobless rate rose to 2.5% in March, but the labor market stayed tight. The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.5% and cut its growth and inflation outlooks, signaling limited chances of near-term hikes.
Resistance is located at 145.90, followed by 146.75 and 149.80. On the downside, support levels are at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
Dollar-yen’s bounce stutters but ¥146 still in viewHavens have generally been in less demand for the last couple of days as the USA apparently reached a trade deal with Britain and there seems to be some progress with other major countries such as Japan. While the Fed now seems much less likely to cut next month, the Bank of Japan’s next hike is somewhat unclear. For now, it seems less likely that the differential in rates will shrink as much this year as had been expected at the beginning of last quarter.
As for many other major pairs with the dollar, volume for dollar-yen has declined significantly since the beginning of last month. ¥140.40 looks like a very strong support, having been tested unsuccessfully three times now since last 2023 and coinciding with the 61.8% monthly Fibonacci retracement. The initial bounce from there last month was quite strong but hasn’t been very consistent since.
Although USDJPY seems like a possibly better candidate for buying the dollar then EURUSD, upcoming movements also seem to depend on American inflation on 13 May. Preliminary Japanese GDP for the first quarter is expected to show a small decline late on 15 May.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Simple and clear as making tea, 4hr1. Market Structure & Patterns
• Bearish Structure:
The pair has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish trend. I follow structure first — it gives the most reliable roadmap before looking at patterns or indicators.
• Bearish Flags (Continuation Patterns):
These are rising channels within a downtrend, usually forming after a strong impulse drop. Think of them as “breathers” before price continues down.
Every flag here broke down, confirming that sellers are still in control after short pullbacks.
• Rejection Zones (Supply Areas):
Marked in pink, these zones are where price previously reversed sharply. Every time price returns to these levels, it shows hesitation or reversal, especially when followed by a bearish candle or wick rejection.
⸻
2. Strong Levels & Liquidity Zones
• Liquidity Zones:
Areas like 140.450 are key because price reacted strongly there in the past — either as a turning point or a fakeout. These zones often hold pending orders, so I mark them as targets for potential bounces or breakouts.
• Confluence of Structure + Liquidity:
When a strong level (like previous demand) lines up with a structural level (like a lower low), it becomes a high-probability target.
• Dynamic Resistance (Trendlines/Channels):
The upper trendline of the flag acted as a form of resistance. Once price broke below it and retested the area, it confirmed a potential continuation.
⸻
3. Fundamentals (Light Touch )
• USD Side:
Recent uncertainty around Fed rate cuts, inflation reports, and mixed labor data have caused the USD to fluctuate, but overall sentiment is leaning slightly dovish. This weakens the USD.
• JPY Side:
The Bank of Japan has started hinting at a possible shift away from ultra-loose policy, which could strengthen the Yen in the medium term.
• Macro Context:
If global risk sentiment turns negative (e.g., stocks fall or geopolitical tensions rise), safe-haven flows into JPY typically increase.
Together, these fundamentals support the technical bearish outlook on USDJPY in the short to mid term.
⸻
Final Thoughts
This setup is built on:
• Clean structure
• Pattern recognition
• Key zone reactions
• Light macro context
Patience and confirmation are key — I wait for price to reject zones and form clear price action (like bearish engulfing or strong wicks) before executing.
⸻
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