USDJPY Potentially a long opportunity for this pair.
- Hit weekly SR line and rejected and retested it
- as you can see the white arrow path is creating a W pattern potentially giving us insight to a switch in direction and go towards an bullish trend
- high wicks rejecting off the W SR line
- bullish engulfing candle is another confirmation
USDJPY_SPT trade ideas
USDJPY-bias long Bullish indications:
Major support respected
Inverted HS formation in 15 min time frame.
Inverted hammer candle in 4 hr
Bullish divergence in 1 hr
Trend line resistance broken .
Bearish indications:
Lower lows lower highs.
Trade plan bias long @ 140.815
SL:140.429
TP1:141.300
TP2:141.708
USD/JPY H4 | Downtrend to extend further?USD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 141.82 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 143.20 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 139.85 which is a swing-low support.
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USDJPY: Moving Toward 140 Support
In the previous analysis, we mentioned a temporary strengthening of the yen followed by continued decline. Now, after a sharp drop and nearing the key 140 support level, a short-term weakening of the yen is expected, which could be driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar.
On the daily timeframe, a temporary rebound from the current price level is likely, followed by the anticipated decline. This potential bounce could provide a new selling opportunity targeting the 140 support level.
Potential Long Setup Forming as USD/JPY Tests DemandThe FX:USDJPY is showing a deep correction within a bullish long-term structure. Price is now below the Ichimoku cloud (Span A and B at 149.22), which reflects bearish momentum in the short term. However, the market is approaching a strong weekly demand zone between 142.00 and 137.00, where previous bullish rallies were initiated.
Both Trend Strength Index (TSI) values are well into oversold territory:
TSI(10): -0.85
TSI(20): -0.81
This indicates that bearish momentum may be nearing exhaustion, and a reversal or bounce is increasingly likely. The zone between 142.00 – 137.00 becomes a key area to watch for bullish reaction, potentially offering a high reward-to-risk opportunity for long setups.
If the price reacts from this demand zone, the next major resistance lies between 148.00 – 151.77, which aligns with the bottom and mid-section of the Ichimoku cloud and past structural levels. Further upside potential extends toward 161, a previous swing high.
Trade Setup Idea:
Long Entry Zone: 142 – 137 (demand zone)
TP1: 148 – 151 (resistance + cloud structure)
TP2 (extended): 161
SL: Below 137
The structure supports a bullish continuation if this zone holds, making it a key region for swing buyers.
The Japanese yen continues to weaken as the Bank of Japan maintains ultra-loose monetary policy, in contrast with the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance. Although U.S. rate cut expectations have increased for late 2025, strong labor and inflation data from the U.S. have kept the dollar supported. In contrast, Japan’s inflation remains soft, and no strong signs of BoJ tightening have emerged. This divergence in monetary policy keeps the USD/JPY biased to the upside, especially if yields in the U.S. stay elevated.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not represent financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
USD/JPY) demand and supply analysis ); Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
shows a bearish setup for USD/JPY on the 1-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown
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1. Trend Context:
Downtrend: The pair is clearly in a bearish channel, forming lower highs and lower lows.
200 EMA (~146.297) is above price and sloping down — confirms bearish bias.
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2. Key Zones Identified:
Supply Zone (~144.800–145.200): A strong area of resistance where sellers may re-enter. If price returns here, it’s a potential short setup.
Demand Zone (~142.800–143.100): A possible reaction point where short-term buyers may provide a bounce.
Target Point (~141.168): A projected target if the downtrend continues and demand zone fails.
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3. Expected Scenarios:
Primary Bearish Move:
Price may react from current levels or from the demand zone.
A pullback to the supply zone is expected before continuation downward.
Then, sell-off toward the target zone around 141.168.
Alternate Play:
Price could bounce between the demand and supply zones a bit more before breaking down.
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4. Indicators:
RSI (~46.37): Shows room to the downside before oversold, aligning with bearish momentum.
Mild bullish divergence in RSI recently, suggesting potential for a small pullback or bounce.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary of Idea:
This is a sell setup:
Sell entries: Ideal around the supply zone (144.8–145.2).
First target: Demand zone (~143.0)
Final target: 141.168
Invalidation: Break above 146.30 (200 EMA and channel resistance).
pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow,)
Bearish Momentum Eases at 141.70 Support in USD/JPYFenzoFx—The USD/JPY currency pair resumed its bearish trend after breaking below 144.56 but steadied at the 141.70 support level. Indicators show sideways movement, reflecting a lack of momentum.
With the price below the 50-period moving average, the bearish outlook persists. If the pair stabilizes below 141.70, the downtrend may deepen, while surpassing 144.56 could pave the way for a rise toward 148.20.
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Bearish drop?USD/JPY has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 142.87
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 143.69
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 141.48
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W16 D18 Y25USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W16 D18 Y25
Fun Coupon Friday
SUMMARY
- Trading in the absolute Depths of the ocean, anticipating orders are being created for price to take an explosive breath. IMO!
- Weekly order block breached, YES.
- Weekly order block still valid due to no clear close below- Long positions only.
- A setup for break and close above key 15' structure point of interest creating higher high.
- B setup to await for lower time frame break of structure.
FRGNT X
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 18, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is down to 142.25 in thin trading session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) is declining against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid concerns over the economic impact of tariffs.
Data released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on Friday showed that the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.6% in March, up from the previous reading of 3.7%. Meanwhile, the national CPI excluding fresh food was 3.2% y/y in March, up from 3.0% previously. The reading was in line with the market consensus.
Finally, the consumer price index excluding fresh food and energy rose 2.9% y/y in March vs. the previous reading of 2.6%. The Japanese Yen remains strong against the US Dollar as an immediate reaction to Japanese inflation data.
However, JPY gains may be limited as Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials signalled a pause in the consideration of interest rate hikes, emphasising the need to monitor uncertainty heightened by US tariff measures.
Economic data from the US on Thursday was mixed. US initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in two months, signalling a stable labour market. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed index fell short of expectations, a warning shot from the manufacturing sector.
Trade recommendation: SELL 142.05, SL 143.40, TP 139.80
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 15 April 2025
- USDJPY reversed from long-term support level 142.00
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 144.65
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the long-term support level 142.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of 2023), support trendline of the weekly down-channel from January and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (3) from last month.
Given the strength of the support level 142.00 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 144.65.
USDJPY Will Explode! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 142.79
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 143.26
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY Buy Trade Setup – 4H TimeframeI have taken a buy position on USDJPY based on a confluence of technical factors supporting a bullish bias:
🔹 Key Weekly Support Zone: Price recently bounced from a strong weekly support level, which has held well in the past, indicating buyers' interest.
🔹 Bullish Daily Candle: On the daily timeframe, a strong bullish candlestick closed above the support level, signaling a potential trend reversal or short-term upside move.
🔹 Trendline Support: On the 4H chart, price is respecting a clear ascending trendline, acting as dynamic support.
🔹 RSI Indicator: RSI is recovering from the oversold zone and showing signs of bullish momentum buildup, supporting a possible upward move.
🔹 200 EMA (Resistance): While the price is still trading below the 200 EMA, this trade targets a move toward that level as the next potential resistance.
🎯 Entry: Near 143.00
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 142.20 (just under recent wick lows)
✅ Take Profit: Around 144.80 (just before the 200 EMA)
Risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, and this setup aligns with higher-timeframe support and confirmation from bullish price action.
USD/JPY Technical and Fundamental Analysis – April 2025Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY monthly chart reveals a strong bullish breakout from a long-standing consolidation zone, defined as the Long-Term Support Region (circa 101.00–122.00). This breakout confirms a major structural shift, where prior resistance has turned into support, signaling the potential for sustained upside momentum.
Upward Price Break: The breakout is clean and supported by significant volume, suggesting institutional participation. The price broke out of the multi-year range and retested the breakout level, respecting it with a strong bullish impulse.
Higher Highs and Higher Lows Channel: Post-breakout, the pair has entered a rising price channel with clearly defined higher highs and higher lows—an essential indicator of bullish market structure. The pair remains well-supported within this upward sloping channel.
Projected Upside: A measured move target (based on the channel and Fibonacci projections) suggests the next key resistance lies around 165.67, offering a 16.72% potential gain from the breakout zone.
Downside Risk: The nearest support lies at 141.94–142.56. A break below this would challenge the structure, but only a drop beneath 136.06 (channel and prior structure support) would invalidate the bullish outlook.
Technically, the pair is in a medium-to-long-term bullish trend. Traders should consider long setups on pullbacks towards support zones unless key structural levels are broken.
Fundamental Analysis
The current macroeconomic landscape provides a mixed but slightly USD-supportive narrative, which aligns well with the bullish technical chart.
Supportive Factors for USD
Hawkish Fed: Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that interest rate cuts are off the table for now, citing sticky inflation. The upbeat US Retail Sales report (+1.4% in March) further strengthens the USD by highlighting ongoing consumer strength.
Geopolitical Risks: The escalating US-China trade war and the imposition of tariffs on AI chips are boosting demand for USD as a global reserve currency.
JPY-Supportive Factors (Limiting USD/JPY Gains)
BoJ Rate Hike Prospects: Despite some dovish commentary, the BoJ is still expected to raise interest rates in 2025, which should provide medium-term support for the yen.
US-Japan Trade Optimism: Positive trade negotiations between the US and Japan (with a second meeting planned within a 90-day window) could further strengthen the yen if an agreement is reached.
BoJ Concerns on US Tariffs: Governor Ueda hinted that Japan may take policy action if US tariffs hurt their economy. However, the BoJ is also expected to cut its growth forecast, which limits the yen’s upside strength.
Risk Sentiment: Despite recent global jitters, equity markets in Asia and the US are rebounding, slightly reducing the safe-haven demand for JPY.
Usdjpy buy 142.52Usdjpy declined below bottom Bolinger band on 4hr . And walking Bolinger down for past couple days. Yesterday it broke up and now resistance becomes support.
Buy on retest of the bottom Bolinger from the top and see if buying will push price to test blue resistance SCD band on 4 hr around 143.50.
If price manages to close below Bolinger again I will stop out.