USDJPY_SPT trade ideas
USD/JPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a narrow trading band at the start of a new week and remains close to a two-week trough touched against its American counterpart on Friday. Mixed signals from the US and China temper hopes for a quick resolution of the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies, which, in turn, offers support to the safe-haven JPY. Moreover, expectations that Japan will strike a trade deal with the US turn out to be another factor underpinning the JPY.
Meanwhile, investors have been scaling back their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as rising economic risks from US tariffs overshadow signs of broadening inflation in Japan. This holds back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. However, the divergent BoJ-Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations should cap the USD and benefit the lower-yielding JPY.
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USDJPY Poised to Retest Broken Trendline After Dovish BOJWe discussed the potential battle between bulls and bears near the trendline in our early April post. USDJPY bears ultimately won that battle, and the 140 target was reached. You can view the earlier post here:
Following the breakdown, the 140 level acted as support, and now an upward reaction has begun. At today’s meeting, the BOJ held rates steady at 0.50% as expected, and Governor Ueda delivered a dovish message. The BOJ lowered its core inflation forecast by 0.2% to 2.2% for 2025 and to 1.7% for 2026. The GDP forecast was also revised down from 1.1% to 0.5%.
These projections suggest the BOJ lacks full confidence in consistently reaching its 2% inflation target, though it's very close. However, the risk of tariffs complicates the outlook. Tariffs could negatively impact both growth and inflation, and the BOJ will likely hold off on further rate hikes for at least a few meetings to observe early effects.
In the context of a more dovish BOJ and the dollar index stabilizing after weeks of declines, USDJPY is staging a positive correction. A retest of the broken trendline appears likely, with potential for the short-term rally to extend toward 148.50. Beyond that point, the market will face a critical decision. If the upward reaction stalls, another medium-term move back toward 140 remains a strong possibility.
USD/JPY Bullish Breakout Setup: Key Resistance at 144.939 and TaEntry Point: ~144.037
Stop Loss: ~144.939 (above the recent resistance zone)
Resistance Zone: Between 144.037 and 144.939 (highlighted by purple area)
First Target Point (EA Target Point): ~139.731 (Bearish target if reversal happens)
Second Target Point (Bullish EA Target Point): ~148.737
Current Price:
As of the chart, price is around 143.743, slightly below the entry point.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout:
If price breaks and closes above 144.939, expect strong bullish momentum toward 148.737.
Confirmation: Look for strong bullish candles with volume above the resistance zone.
Bearish Rejection:
If price fails to break 144.939 and shows bearish reversal patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing), a pullback toward 144.037 or even down to 139.731 is likely.
Additional Notes:
The orange circles highlight key points where price respected trendlines and support zones — showing strong buyer interest.
A rising trendline (drawn underneath recent lows) supports the ongoing bullish structure.
Risk-Reward seems well balanced: small risk (~90 pips) for a potential reward (~400+ pips).
Summary:
Bias: Cautiously bullish, but watch carefully around the 144.939 resistance.
Action: Wait for a clean breakout or a rejection pattern before deciding.
USDJPY feels like it's about to break the weekly downtrendLast week weekly candle closed as a bullish pinbar, signalling buying pressure. It has tried to break upwards twice this week already and I believe the third time would be the charm before we end the week with NFP.
However, the road up would be tough with all the FVGs hence TP1 and 2 is relatively close to each other.
Please do not risk more than 1% per trade。
If you like the idea, please help like the post and comment down your thoughts below! I would love to hear your thoughts!
USDJPY ready for another drop?After daily break of structure USDJPY just has managed to form another head and shoulder with strong liquidity grab has started to move in the major direction of the trend. After yesterdays drop, price today so far has done pullback and formed another possible bearish market structure.
As of upcoming USD and JPY news may push that price back to the support as shown in sketch.
A sell trade is high probability
USD/JPY For Bullishwait for pull-back near by entry point and then go long
general trend is up trend
have fun :)
USDJPY Bearish Forecast, More Bearish Order FlowAfter the recent change of character from Monday, UJ continued lower and broke the H1 structure. As we all know, whenever you get a break of structure, expect a pullback. On the H4 there is a nice bearish OB which serves as a nice point of interest for price to rally back towards, be mindful this OB is big so we don't know what to expect once price reaches it.
For now this is how I see the dollar heading towards.
USDJPY BUYYou do not want to miss this double bottom buy on USDJPY. It will require some patience, but the entry has not been activated yet. Take note of all the coordinates
USDJPY INTRADAY downtrend continuationThe USDJPY pair is exhibiting a bearish sentiment, reinforced by the ongoing downtrend. The key trading level to watch is at 145.60, which represents the current intraday swing low and the falling resistance trendline level.
In the short term, an oversold rally from current levels, followed by a bearish rejection at the 145.60 resistance, could lead to a downside move targeting support at 141.00, with further potential declines to 139.50 and 138.40 over a longer timeframe.
On the other hand, a confirmed breakout above the 145.60 resistance level and a daily close above that mark would invalidate the bearish outlook. This scenario could pave the way for a continuation of the rally, aiming to retest the 147.90 resistance, with a potential extension to 149.00 levels.
Conclusion:
Currently, the USDJPY sentiment remains bearish, with the 145.60 level acting as a pivotal resistance. Traders should watch for either a bearish rejection at this level or a breakout and daily close above it to determine the next directional move. Caution is advised until the price action confirms a clear break or rejection.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USD/JPY For Bullishyou can go long now
or
wait for pull-back near by entry point and then go long
general trend is up trend
have fun :)
"USDJPY Crashing from Premium FVG | Liquidity Grab Confirmed!"USDJPY Analysis 🧠 | 15M Timeframe
Price tapped deep into the Premium Area, perfectly aligning with a high-probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block confluence.
We witnessed a strong bearish reaction — classic Smart Money move in action.
Key Observations:
Price surged aggressively into the Premium Zone (~79% retracement area).
Immediate bearish reaction from the red Fair Value Gap zone.
Liquidity sweep confirmed above the previous Strong High.
Discount Area below remains unfilled, offering juicy targets.
🧠 Smart Money Concept Insight:
Institutions love to bait breakout traders by pumping into Premium Zones.
After collecting stop orders and liquidity above highs, they aggressively reverse, aiming to rebalance into the Discount Area.
USDJPY delivered a textbook liquidity grab before the sharp drop!
Current Trading Plan:
Bearish bias remains intact after the strong reaction.
TP1: Mid Discount Area
TP2: Weak Low liquidity sweep zone
SL (for any new shorts): Above the Strong High
Remember:
📚 Premium = Look for Sell Opportunities
📚 Discount = Look for Buy Opportunities
Stay laser-focused on Smart Money footprints, not noise.
📉 Emotions out, execution sharp!
Usdjpy 23 Apr 2025Mr market finally had some reason to unwind and take those huge profit from the shorts
Price had closed above the channel and supported, am looking for it to retest previous high
Ideally if it can reach 148 region, it will be a great spot to short
USD/JPY SELLUSD/JPY SELL. Trendline break. Trend Strength meter short. Superduper Trend divergence. Good R/R. Tight Stop
Reverse HnS at weekly demand zone. weekly deand zone holding strong. From weekly down to 1H, all signals align for a buy. Also spotting a reverse Head & Shoulders forming at the weekly demand zone—classic setup for bullish continuation. Eyes on the breakout.
USDJPY: 142 | Building a Short Positionjust charts and cycles of markets where
the most unforgiving and rewarding pair in fx
has come to reward generational LONGS and shall again
make huge gains for fresh SHORTS coming
USDJPY Analysis week 18🌐Fundamental Analysis
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered to near 99.75 after a correction on Thursday. President Donald Trump said trade talks are progressing well and a deal with Japan is close.
US-China trade relations have been thrown into uncertainty by conflicting statements: Trump said President Xi Jinping called him, while China denied any talks were taking place. Tokyo's April consumer price index (CPI) beat expectations at 3.4%, bolstering expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates.
🕯Technical Analysis
Prices are heading towards the resistance zone of 144,900, with the possibility of an uptrend resuming. This resistance zone is likely to act as a retest for a rally towards 148,000. Pay attention to the BUY zones of 142,300 and 141,000 for retests of this pair.
📈📉Trading Signals
SELL USDJPY 148.000-148.200 Stoploss 148.500
BUY USDJPY 141.000-140.800 Stoploss 140.500
Technicals USDJPY Key Level (Horizontal Resistance)
A horizontal resistance zone around 143.90 has been tested multiple times.
Price is currently retesting this zone, marked as an "Entry Zone", suggesting a potential breakout or rejection.
2. Price Structure
Prior downtrend bottomed near 140.00, then formed higher lows, showing a potential trend reversal.
Current price is approaching the resistance with strong bullish candles, indicating possible momentum buildup.
3. Volume
Volume spikes align with swing highs and lows, suggesting these moves were backed by stronger participation.
4. Scenarios Outlined
Bullish Path (Black Arrow): Breakout above the entry zone could lead to targets near 147.00–150.00, continuing a bullish reversal.
Bearish Path (Red Wave): Rejection at the resistance may cause a drop toward 140.00, forming a ranging or distribution pattern.
The Fed (USD) maintains relatively high interest rates, while the BoJ (JPY) continues a dovish stance, creating upward pressure on USD/JPY.
USDJPY Bearish MAYAs we welcome a new month, it is only right that we get a monthly overview. We can see yet another bearish flag here, so for most of may, we will be selling UJ
USD/JPY Massive Support into BoJThe 140.00 level in USD/JPY has so far held the lows in 2025 after that price did the same in 2024. There was just one day of testing below that price last year and it was around the weekly open of the first FOMC rate cut for the last cycle. Sellers couldn't find much momentum below and a couple days later, when the Fed did actually cut, price put in a higher-low and then eventually reversed in Q4.
But at this stage it looks more and more like we'll see eventual tightening of rates between the U.S. and Japan as inflation in Japan remains elevated and growth in the US somewhat weak.
Timing remains the issue and USD/JPY has brewed several bear traps already this year. It seems unlikely that the BoJ will be too aggressive towards rate moves with the uncertainty of tariffs looming overhead, but tonight's rate decision is a quarterly meeting meaning the Bank will issue updated outlooks, and when they last did this on January 27th it allowed for a lower-low in USD/JPY that continued to spiral lower until the 140.00 bounce that showed last week.
For resistance, 145.00 is a major level as this was prior support that hasn't yet been tested as resistance. - js
USDJPY We have a strong gathering in the area. We expect the dollar to fall against the Japanese yen as a technical analysis, but any geopolitical entry changes the analysis course, so we expect a decline.
