XCUUSD trade ideas
Chinese PMI might send copper down.Here's how Chinese PMI can influence copper prices:
Strong PMI (above 50): A higher PMI reading indicates a growing manufacturing sector, which is a positive sign for copper demand. As manufacturing activities increase, so does the need for copper, as it is an essential material used in various industries, including construction, electronics, and infrastructure. This higher demand for copper can drive up prices.
Weak PMI (below 50): A lower PMI reading suggests a contraction in the manufacturing sector, which can signal reduced copper demand. A slowdown in manufacturing activities can lead to lower consumption of copper, potentially putting downward pressure on copper prices.
The current PMI is below 50, indicating a contraction in economic activity. If the upcoming PMI data also falls below expectations, it could lead to increased volatility in the copper price and potentially create a favorable environment for a short trade.
Copper coming to the end of a wedgeI would hope I breaks UPWARD....but likely this is a continuation pattern to finish another test of the lower boundary. With all the talk of electrification My hopes may be granted....with the equities markets keeping up and rate hikes possibly slowing down UP would be the final breakout...
Copper: Is Dr. Copper showing signs of discontent?A price action below 3.90 supports a bearish trend direction.
Dipped below its 200-day simple moving average.
Further bearish confirmation for a price action below 3.80.
The target price is set at 3.65 (the 200-week simple moving average).
The Stop-loss is set at 4.00.
Failed to break the resistance trendlines through the tops.
copper scenariosCopper has hit an important weekly demand area and then an upward move that has not had strong momentum and has also been weak to the downside. Considering the high and low liquidity, if the high liquidity is established first, the first scenario is proposed, which is the possibility of a pullback in the four-hour supply area and then ascending to higher areas again. And if there is low liquidity in the beginning, we can act according to the second scenario and look for an upward scenario in the area of lower demand.
COPPER: Trigger on 4H with Daily and Weekly analysisWEEKLY:
Starting from a broader view and thus observing the Weekly timeframe in order to have a clearer general idea of the price structure, as also indicated by my custom-made LuBot indicator, we can see on the chart below a change in structure from Bullish to Bearish from the color of the candles in purple.
I've also highlighted 2 numbers with a gray border that indicate for me the number of swings in favor of the current structure. So after the first swing in favor of the bearish structure we see a retracement that leads prices to lean on the Weekly ema21 forming a Reversal candle that closes in the negative. Breaking the low of this last candle would already give us an entry trigger as well as the formation of the second swing in favor of the structure (provided the candle continues in a short direction without making an outside).
DAILY:
Having clear the situation on the Weekly and therefore deciding to favor the triggers in the Short direction, I move to the Daily where I find a Bullish structure in the last few days which leads to the formation of 5 consecutive swings, of which the last 2 swings the maximums stop in the area 3.92 where they find a static resistance as well as the ema200.
From the last maximum, the price begins to fall by reversing its bearish structure as seen by the purple color of the candles (in favor of the Weekly timeframe). We therefore have further confirmations also considering the LuBot Short signal, the LuTrender which becomes negative, the reversal signals and the negative TrendCloud, at this point we are looking for a trigger on the 4H timeframe.
4H:
On the 4H, as can be seen from the main image, right on the current candle, a Short trigger would form when the minimum of the previous candle broke. Here too we have a Short structure in favor of the other timeframes and a Short LuBot signal. Everything coincides.
The stop loss could be placed above the latest 4H highs which would lead prices to a short reversal of the structure and therefore would lead us to re-evaluate the entry later. Or for those who want to avoid risky stops in favor of maintaining the position on a fairly clear trend, they could place the stop loss above the Daily highs and therefore in the 3.97 area.
As regards the Take Profit, it is a bit to be evaluated based on the next movements, but I would say that a target in the 3.71 area is already quite satisfactory.
XCUUSD - Copper Demands On The Decline?Analysis:
Looking at the technicals on Copper we can see a clear downwards trend. Price is forming lower lows and lower highs which confirms that we are in a downwards trend. Price has also been respecting a downwards trendline which again shows us that we are in a downwards trend. We're currently sat at an area that we're interested in as price has held this area multiple times in the past so we expect that it will again. To give us more confidence with this setup, at our area we also have the 50% fib retracement level which we suspect bears will be wanting to hold and push price to the downside which favours our idea. We've also got the downwards trendline close by which if price reaches we'd expect to hold and to further help push price to the downside as bears will be waiting at this area. Fundamentally the USD is gaining a lot of strength in recent times and it continues to, until we see this change we are bullish on the USD, so this goes with our idea. Copper demands have decreased recently meaning that Copper prices will decrease. Comparing the decreasing demand for Copper against the strengthening USD it's clear to see that we want to be shorting this pair which is why we have a short bias.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Copper, Lower High? Copper / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
Copper looks heavy after a deviation from a Long term Macro level. I would be looking for more confirmation to confirm the lower high is in which can send Cooper much lower for a second leg down.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.