XCUUSD trade ideas
COPPER Elliott Wave AnalysisThe commodity Copper has recently ended its correction as the Expanding Flat and nowit has started the big impulsive move.
Copper Potential for bullish momentumOn H4, with the price crossing the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the sell entry at 3.6069, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance to the take profit at 3.6774, where the previous swing high and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 3.5349, where the swing lows are.
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Steve's Gun to Head - Inverse head & shoulder in CopperTrade Idea: Buy Copper
Reasoning: Price action posted a bullish engulfing on the daily chart. A confirmed inverse head & shoulder on the short term charts. Yesterdays dollar weakness likely to assist with further gains in dollar priced assets.
Entry Level: 3.48
Take Profit Level: 3.63
Stop Loss: 3.43
Risk/Reward: 3:1
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Copper Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn h4, with the price breaking the descending trendline and there is a golden cross, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the buy entry at 3.4507, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is to the take profit at 3.5515, where the50% fibonacci retracement and previous swing lows are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 3.3749, where the swing low is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
COPPER Potential for Bearish DropOn H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop form the sell entry at 3.3747, where the swing low and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are to the take profit at 3.2362, where the swing lows are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 3.4543, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Copper Plot...Timelines will probably be out but who cares - it's going to be the largest beneficiary of the zero carbon future - supply shortages will come into play also - most copper mines also are long in the tooth and reserves are depleting + it takes about 12-15 years to even get one registered/running as a producer...Long term this can only go up lol.
Copper analysis: Has the bear market rally ended already?After a 37% decline from its peak of $5.03 per pound in early-March 2022, copper has risen 14% since July's lows.
However, the metal has recently been unable to overcome key resistance levels represented by the 50-day moving average and the descending channel trendline, as fresh worries about global growth slowdown and monetary policy tightening reemerged this week.
Key macro events of the week:
China, the world's largest consumer of copper, unexpectedly lowered lending rates in an effort to boost demand after reporting weaker-than-anticipated July numbers for industrial production (3.8% vs 4.6% expected), fixed asset investments (5.7% vs 6.2%), and retail sales (2.7% vs 5%).
In the United States, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -31.3 in August of 2022, from 11.2 in July. This is the lowest reading since May of 2020, and it indicates that business activity is weakening as a result of a collapse in new orders and shipments.
Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since October 2008, and the UK inflation rate has risen to double digits, the highest in 40 years, adding fuel to the fire and reigniting fears of a global recession.
Ultimately, the Minutes of the FOMC's July meeting revealed that there is still a long way to go before declaring the war on inflation won, with members indicating that adopting a more restrictive policy stance was critical to avoiding a worsening of inflation expectations. This implies that the Fed's tightening is far from over.
Copper technical analysis
A bear market rally that is nearing exhaustion can be seen on the copper daily chart. The price action this week has been unable to break above both the bearish channel and the 50-dma, the RSI has tilted to the downside, and the MACD is getting close to a bearish crossover.
A similar pattern occurred earlier this year, in the first week of June.
After a 14% rebound from May's lows, copper briefly surpassed the 50-day moving average before beginning a severe, steep decline that lasted until mid-July. The RSI and MACD indicators both showed similar patterns to what we are seeing now.
Bottom line, a copper's short-term pullback to the bearish channel's midline in the $3.2-3.3 area seems more likely, given the current technical setup. Breaking decisively the 50-dma and bearish channel resistances would invalidate the thesis and raise the odds of a $4.00 per pound test.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CopperWe hit a weekly SD zone in copper. But was it enough? I'd gladly see gold come down to the 1600. Gold (H12) is also at a resistance zone with divergence, could we get one more push down in metals? And one more push down in stocks and cryptos and DXY up?
One other thing that supports gold 1600 and copper also going one more leg is the speed and strength it came down with.
For the North trade, I'd like us to show weakness southwards and strength northwards into one of the SD zones
Copper Daily : Elliott wave analysis, potential target rangeIf copper price action respects my Elliott wave count in daily timeframe, expect the 5th wave to start sometime sooner. Please refer to my previous analysis of copper in 60 min time frame.
Looking at Elliott wave counts, wave#3 was greater than wave#1, so I am expecting wave#5 to be at least equal to wave#1 (see the vertical yellow bars), based on this assumption the target range for wave#5 is : 2.96 to 3.02
I am using two technical indicators 1) Monthly and Weekly Pivot Points and 2) Fib extension, on top of Elliott wave counts to decide when to get in a short trade and when to get out.